EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE

In this study,the effect of vertical wind shear(VWS)on the intensification of tropical cyclone(TC)is investigated via the numerical simulations.Results indicate that weak shear tends to facilitate the development of TC while strong shear appears to inhibit the intensification of TC.As the VWS is imposed on the TC,the vortex of the cyclone tends to tilt vertically and significantly in the upper troposphere.Consequently,the upward motion is considerably enhanced in the downshear side of the storm center and correspondingly,the low-to mid-level potential temperature decreases under the effect of adiabatic cooling,which leads to the increase of the low-to mid-level static instability and relative humidity and then facilitates the burst of convection.In the case of weak shear,the vertical tilting of the vortex is weak and the increase of ascent,static instability and relative humidity occur in the area close to the TC center.Therefore,active convection happens in the TC center region and facilitates the enhancement of vorticity in the inner core region and then the intensification of TC.In contrast,due to strong VWS,the increase of the ascent,static instability and relative humidity induced by the vertical tilting mainly appear in the outer region of TC in the case with stronger shear,and the convection in the inner-core area of TC is rather weak and convective activity mainly happens in the outer-region of the TC.Therefore,the development of a warm core is inhibited and then the intensification of TC is delayed.Different from previous numerical results obtained by imposing VWS suddenly to a strong TC,the simulation performed in this work shows that,even when the VWS is as strong as 12 m s-1,the tropical storm can still experience rapid intensification and finally develop into a strong tropical cyclone after a relatively long period of adjustment.It is found that the convection plays an important role in the adjusting period.On one hand,the convection leads to the horizontal convergence of the low-level vorticity flux and therefore leads to the enhancement of the low-level vorticity in the inner-core area of the cyclone.On the other hand,the active ascent accompanying the convection tends to transport the low-level vorticity to the middle levels.The enhanced vorticity in the lower to middle troposphere strengths the interaction between the low-and mid-level cyclonical circulation and the upper-level circulation deviated from the storm center under the effect of VWS.As a result,the vertical tilting of the vortex is considerably decreased,and then the cyclone starts to develop rapidly.

EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE

The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared.The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200-800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear.High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs.TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity.A vertical shear of 8-9 m/s(9-10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h(48 h).A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h.Finally,a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression,which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear.Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.

A Lagrangian Trajectory Analysis of Azimuthally Asymmetric Equivalent Potential Temperature in the Outer Core of Sheared Tropical Cyclones

In this study,the characteristics of azimuthally asymmetric equivalent potential temperature(θ_(e))distributions in the outer core of tropical cyclones(TCs)encountering weak and strong vertical wind shear are examined using a Lagrangian trajectory method.Evaporatively forced downdrafts in the outer rainbands can transport low-entropy air downward,resulting in the lowestθ_(e)in the downshear-left boundary layer.Quantitative estimations ofθ_(e)recovery indicate that air parcels,especially those originating from the downshear-left outer core,can gradually revive from a low entropy state through surface enthalpy fluxes as the parcels move cyclonically.As a result,the maximumθ_(e)is observed in the downshear-right quadrant of a highly sheared TC.The trajectory analyses also indicate that parcels that move upward in the outer rainbands and those that travel through the inner core due to shear make a dominant contribution to the midlevel enhancement ofθ_(e)in the downshear-left outer core.In particular,the former plays a leading role in suchθ_(e)enhancements,while the latter plays a secondary role.As a result,moist potential stability occurs in the middle-to-lower troposphere in the downshear-left outer core.

Analysis of an Ensemble of High-Resolution WRF Simulations for the Rapid Intensification of Super Typhoon Rammasun(2014)

Diagnostics are presented from an ensemble of high-resolution forecasts that differed markedly in their predictions of the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Rammasun.We show that the basic difference stems from subtle differences in initializations of(a)500-850-h Pa environmental winds,and(b)midlevel moisture and ventilation.We then describe how these differences impact on the evolving convective organization,storm structure,and the timing of RI.As expected,ascent,diabatic heating and the secondary circulation near the inner-core are much stronger in the member that best forecasts the RI.The evolution of vortex cloudiness from this member is similar to the actual imagery,with the development of an inner cloud band wrapping inwards to form the eyewall.We present evidence that this structure,and hence the enhanced diabatic heating,is related to the tilt and associated dynamics of the developing inner-core in shear.For the most accurate ensemble member:(a)inhibition of ascent and a reduction in convection over the up-shear sector allow moistening of the boundary-layer air,which is transported to the down-shear sector to feed a developing convective asymmetry;(b)with minimal ventilation,undiluted clouds and moisture from the down-shear left quadrant are then wrapped inwards to the up-shear left quadrant to form the eyewall cloud;and(c)this process seems related to a critical down-shear tilt of the vortex from midlevels,and the vertical phase-locking of the circulation over up-shear quadrants.For the member that forecasts a much-delayed RI,these processes are inhibited by stronger vertical wind shear,initially resulting in poor vertical coherence of the circulation,lesser moisture and larger ventilation.Our analysis suggests that ensemble prediction is needed to account for the sensitivity of forecasts to a relatively narrow range of environmental wind shear,moisture and vortex inner-structure.

Assessment of the Impacts of Tropical Cyclones Idai to the Western Coastal Area and Hinterlands of the South Western Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are among the atmospheric events which may trigger/enhance the occurrence of disasters to the society in most world basins including the Southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO). This study analyzed the dynamics and the impacts of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) Idai (4th-21st March, 2019) which devastated most of the SWIO countries. The study used the Reanalysis 1 products of daily zonal (u) and meridional (v) winds, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), amount of Precipitable Water (PRW), and relative humidity (Rh). The dynamics and movements of Idai were analyzed using the wind circulation at 850, 700, 500 and 200 mb, where the TC dynamic variables like vertical wind shear, vorticity, and the mean zonal wind were calculated using u and v components. Using the open Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) software the data was processed into three-time epochs of pre, during and post;and then analyzed to feature the state of the atmosphere before (pre), during and post TC Idai using all datasets. The amount of precipitable water was used to map the rainfall on pre, during, and post Idai as well as during its landfall. The results revealed that dynamics of TC Idai was intensifying the weather (over Mozambique) and clearing the weather equatorward or southward of 12°S, with low vertical wind shear over the landfall areas (-3 to 3 m/s) and higher shear values (10 - 40 m/s) northward and southward of the Mozambican channel. Higher moisture content (80 - 90%) and higher PRW (40 - 60 mm/day) mapped during Idai over the lowland areas of Mozambique propagating westward. Higher low-level vorticity values were also mapped over the landfall areas. More results revealed that countries laying equatorward of 12°S, e.g., the northern coastal areas of Kenya (Turkana and Baringo) and Tanzania, Idai disrupted the 2019 March to May (MAM) seasonal rainfall by inducing long dry spell which accelerated the famine over the northeastern Kenya (Turkana). Moreover, results revealed that the land falling of Idai triggered intensive flooding which affected a wide spectrum of socio-economic livelihoods including significant loss of lives, injuries, loss of material wealth, infrastructure;indeed, people were forced to leave their houses for quite a longtime;water-borne diseases like malaria, cholera among others were experienced. Furthermore, results and reports revealed that a large amount of funds were raised to combat the impacts of Idai. For instance, USAID/OFDA used about $14,146,651 for human aid and treatment of flood-prone diseases like Cholera in Mozambique ($13,296,651), Zimbabwe ($100,000), and Malawi ($280,000), respectively. Also a death toll of about 602 in Mozambique and 344 in Zimbabwe, and more than 2500 cases of injured people were reported. Conclusively the study has shown that TCs including Idai and other are among the deadliest natural phenomenon which great affects the human and his environments, thus extensive studies on TCs frequency, strength, tracks as well as their coast benefit analysis should be conducted to reduce the societal impacts of these TCs.

FORMATION AND STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION OF INITIAL DISTURBANCE OF TYPHOON FUNG-WONG (2008)

The formation of a tropical cyclone is the result of a process in which an initial disturbance evolves into a warm-core low-pressure system;however,the origin of the initial disturbance and the features of the initial fields are overlooked in most existing theories.In this study,based on FY-2C brightness temperature data and the Japan reanalysis dataset,the origin and evolution of the tropical disturbance that became Typhoon Fung-Wong(2008) were examined.The results demonstrated that the initial disturbance emerged within a saddle-type field with large vertical tropospheric wind shear.The vertical wind shear decreased with the adjustment of the upper circulation;moreover,accompanied by convection over the warm section around the upper cold vortex,it provided favorable thermal and dynamic conditions for the development of a tropical vortex.During its development,the zone of associated positive relative vorticity strengthened and descended from the mid-troposphere to lower levels.This rapid strengthening of lower-level vorticity was due to increasing convergence related to the intensification of the pressure gradient southwest of the subtropical high.This indicated that the upper cold vortex and West Pacific subtropical high played very important roles in this case.

Westward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific during 1982–2020:Features and Possible Causes

The westward migration of tropical cyclone(TC)activity has been identified in the western North Pacific(WNP),but the related features and causes remain elusive.Here,based on the best track data from China,Japan,and the US,and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data in 1982–2020,we investigate characteristics of the westward migration of the WNP TC activity with various metrics,and reveal possible causes for the migration of TC tracks through analyzing its seasonality and dependence on environmental conditions.The results show that the WNP TCs show significant westward migrations in a number of metrics,including location of tracks,genesis,the first track point at which TC reaches its lifetime-maximum intensity,and the last track point in the TC lifetime.It is found that TC tracks exhibit more significant westward migrations in the easterly steering flow than in the westerly steering flow.Meanwhile,the TC longitude shift shows notable seasonal variations,for which the TCs in the easterlies move further west than those in the westerlies during July–September,vice versa during October–December.The dependence of the westward migration of TC tracks on background steering flow is associated with the different environmental conditions.The westward shift in the westerly steering is mainly due to the reduced vertical wind shear(VWS),while the weakened zonal easterly steering and reduced VWS are both closely related to the westward migration in the easterly steering.These results have important implications for understanding current and future variations in TC longitude shift.

A numerical study of convective-scale downdrafts in the outer core of tropical cyclones in vertically varying environmental flows

The characteristics of convective-scale downdrafts in the outer core of tropical cyclones in the lower-and upper-layer vertical wind shear(VWS)are investigated based on two high-resolution idealized numerical experiments.Four types of outer-core downdrafts,originating from the lower troposphere,the midtroposphere,the upper level,and the tropopause,respectively,are found.The downdrafts originating from the lower and mid troposphere can penetrate down near the surface,and those originating from the tropopause in upper-layer VWS tend to penetrate more downward than in lower-layer VWS.Downdrafts tend to be located in the more upwind portion of the downshear-right quadrant in lower-layer VWS than in upper-layer VWS.The frequency of downdrafts outside and upwind of the parent updraft increases with the increasing downdraft top height.Vertical momentum budgets indicate that downward-oriented buoyancy due to the evaporational cooling of rainwater and precipitation drag mainly contribute to the occurrence of low-level downdrafts,and the midlevel and upper-level downdrafts originate due to precipitation drag and are strengthened by the downward-oriented,buoyancy-induced perturbation pressure gradient.The processes governing the downdrafts from the tropopause are different between the two experiments.More icy-type particles are produced and transported outward at upper levels in the lower-layer shear experiment,resulting in larger downward-oriented buoyancy due to the sublimational cooling of icy-type particles and contributing to the development/maintenance of the downdraft from the tropopause in that experiment.However,the downwardoriented perturbation pressure gradient leads to the development/maintenance of the downdraft from the tropopause in the upper-layer shear experiment.