Using tropical cyclone (TC) best track and intensity of the western North Pacific data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1992-200...Using tropical cyclone (TC) best track and intensity of the western North Pacific data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1992-2002, the effects of vertical wind shear on TC intensity are examined. The samples were limited to the westward or northwestward moving TCs between 5°N and 20°N in order to minimize thermodynamic effects. It is found that the effect of vertical wind shear between 200 and 500 hPa on TC intensity change is larger than that of the shear between 500 and 850 hPa, while similar to that of the shear between 200 and 850 hPa. Vertical wind shear may have a threshold value, which tends to decrease as TC intensifies. As the intensifying rate of TC weakens, the average shear increases. The large shear has the obvious trend of inhibiting TC development. The average shear of TC which can develop into typhoon (tropical depression or tropical storm) is below 7 m s^-1 (above 8 m s^-1).展开更多
The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the...The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared.The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200-800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear.High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs.TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity.A vertical shear of 8-9 m/s(9-10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h(48 h).A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h.Finally,a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression,which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear.Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.展开更多
In this study,the characteristics of azimuthally asymmetric equivalent potential temperature(θ_(e))distributions in the outer core of tropical cyclones(TCs)encountering weak and strong vertical wind shear are examine...In this study,the characteristics of azimuthally asymmetric equivalent potential temperature(θ_(e))distributions in the outer core of tropical cyclones(TCs)encountering weak and strong vertical wind shear are examined using a Lagrangian trajectory method.Evaporatively forced downdrafts in the outer rainbands can transport low-entropy air downward,resulting in the lowestθ_(e)in the downshear-left boundary layer.Quantitative estimations ofθ_(e)recovery indicate that air parcels,especially those originating from the downshear-left outer core,can gradually revive from a low entropy state through surface enthalpy fluxes as the parcels move cyclonically.As a result,the maximumθ_(e)is observed in the downshear-right quadrant of a highly sheared TC.The trajectory analyses also indicate that parcels that move upward in the outer rainbands and those that travel through the inner core due to shear make a dominant contribution to the midlevel enhancement ofθ_(e)in the downshear-left outer core.In particular,the former plays a leading role in suchθ_(e)enhancements,while the latter plays a secondary role.As a result,moist potential stability occurs in the middle-to-lower troposphere in the downshear-left outer core.展开更多
By performing a statistical change-point analysis of activities of the tropical cyclones(TCs)that have affected Korea(K-TCs),it was found that there was a signifi cant change between 1983 and 1984.During the period of...By performing a statistical change-point analysis of activities of the tropical cyclones(TCs)that have affected Korea(K-TCs),it was found that there was a signifi cant change between 1983 and 1984.During the period of 1984-2004(P2),more TCs migrated toward the west,recurved in the southwest,and affected Korea,compared to the period of 1965-1983(P1).These changes for P2 were related to the southwestward expansion of the subtropical western Pacifi c high(SWPH)and,simultaneously,elongation of its elliptical shape toward Korea.Because of these changes,the central pressure and lifetime of K-TC during P2 were deeper and longer,respectively,than fi gures for P1.This stronger K-TC intensity for P2 was related to the more southwestward genesis due to the southwestward expansion of the SWPH.The weaker vertical wind shear environment during P2 was more favorable for K-TC to maintain a strong intensity in the mid-latitudes of East Asia.展开更多
The formation of a tropical cyclone is the result of a process in which an initial disturbance evolves into a warm-core low-pressure system;however,the origin of the initial disturbance and the features of the initial...The formation of a tropical cyclone is the result of a process in which an initial disturbance evolves into a warm-core low-pressure system;however,the origin of the initial disturbance and the features of the initial fields are overlooked in most existing theories.In this study,based on FY-2C brightness temperature data and the Japan reanalysis dataset,the origin and evolution of the tropical disturbance that became Typhoon Fung-Wong(2008) were examined.The results demonstrated that the initial disturbance emerged within a saddle-type field with large vertical tropospheric wind shear.The vertical wind shear decreased with the adjustment of the upper circulation;moreover,accompanied by convection over the warm section around the upper cold vortex,it provided favorable thermal and dynamic conditions for the development of a tropical vortex.During its development,the zone of associated positive relative vorticity strengthened and descended from the mid-troposphere to lower levels.This rapid strengthening of lower-level vorticity was due to increasing convergence related to the intensification of the pressure gradient southwest of the subtropical high.This indicated that the upper cold vortex and West Pacific subtropical high played very important roles in this case.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 4995014, 40275018, and 40333025.
文摘Using tropical cyclone (TC) best track and intensity of the western North Pacific data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1992-2002, the effects of vertical wind shear on TC intensity are examined. The samples were limited to the westward or northwestward moving TCs between 5°N and 20°N in order to minimize thermodynamic effects. It is found that the effect of vertical wind shear between 200 and 500 hPa on TC intensity change is larger than that of the shear between 500 and 850 hPa, while similar to that of the shear between 200 and 850 hPa. Vertical wind shear may have a threshold value, which tends to decrease as TC intensifies. As the intensifying rate of TC weakens, the average shear increases. The large shear has the obvious trend of inhibiting TC development. The average shear of TC which can develop into typhoon (tropical depression or tropical storm) is below 7 m s^-1 (above 8 m s^-1).
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(41405060,41475082,41305049,41275067,41475059)
文摘The effects of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone(TC) intensity change are examined based on the TC data from the China Meteorological Administration and the NCEP reanalysis daily data from 2001 to 2006.First,the influence of wind shear between different vertical levels and averages in different horizontal areas are compared.The results indicate that the effect of wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa averaged within a 200-800 km annulus on TC intensity change is larger than any other calculated vertical wind shear.High-latitude and intense TCs tend to be less sensitive to the effects of VWS than low-latitude and weak TCs.TCs experience time lags between the imposition of the shear and the weakening in TC intensity.A vertical shear of 8-9 m/s(9-10 m/s) would weaken TC intensity within 60 h(48 h).A vertical shear greater than 10 m/s would weaken TC intensity within 6 h.Finally,a statistical TC intensity prediction scheme is developed by using partial least squares regression,which produces skillful intensity forecasts when potential predictors include factors related to the vertical wind shear.Analysis of the standardized regression coefficients further confirms the obtained statistical results.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant No. 2017YFC1501601the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 42175005 and 41875054
文摘In this study,the characteristics of azimuthally asymmetric equivalent potential temperature(θ_(e))distributions in the outer core of tropical cyclones(TCs)encountering weak and strong vertical wind shear are examined using a Lagrangian trajectory method.Evaporatively forced downdrafts in the outer rainbands can transport low-entropy air downward,resulting in the lowestθ_(e)in the downshear-left boundary layer.Quantitative estimations ofθ_(e)recovery indicate that air parcels,especially those originating from the downshear-left outer core,can gradually revive from a low entropy state through surface enthalpy fluxes as the parcels move cyclonically.As a result,the maximumθ_(e)is observed in the downshear-right quadrant of a highly sheared TC.The trajectory analyses also indicate that parcels that move upward in the outer rainbands and those that travel through the inner core due to shear make a dominant contribution to the midlevel enhancement ofθ_(e)in the downshear-left outer core.In particular,the former plays a leading role in suchθ_(e)enhancements,while the latter plays a secondary role.As a result,moist potential stability occurs in the middle-to-lower troposphere in the downshear-left outer core.
文摘By performing a statistical change-point analysis of activities of the tropical cyclones(TCs)that have affected Korea(K-TCs),it was found that there was a signifi cant change between 1983 and 1984.During the period of 1984-2004(P2),more TCs migrated toward the west,recurved in the southwest,and affected Korea,compared to the period of 1965-1983(P1).These changes for P2 were related to the southwestward expansion of the subtropical western Pacifi c high(SWPH)and,simultaneously,elongation of its elliptical shape toward Korea.Because of these changes,the central pressure and lifetime of K-TC during P2 were deeper and longer,respectively,than fi gures for P1.This stronger K-TC intensity for P2 was related to the more southwestward genesis due to the southwestward expansion of the SWPH.The weaker vertical wind shear environment during P2 was more favorable for K-TC to maintain a strong intensity in the mid-latitudes of East Asia.
基金National Program on Key Basic Research Project of the"973"Program(2013CB430104)Specialized Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Welfare(GYHY201106035)
文摘The formation of a tropical cyclone is the result of a process in which an initial disturbance evolves into a warm-core low-pressure system;however,the origin of the initial disturbance and the features of the initial fields are overlooked in most existing theories.In this study,based on FY-2C brightness temperature data and the Japan reanalysis dataset,the origin and evolution of the tropical disturbance that became Typhoon Fung-Wong(2008) were examined.The results demonstrated that the initial disturbance emerged within a saddle-type field with large vertical tropospheric wind shear.The vertical wind shear decreased with the adjustment of the upper circulation;moreover,accompanied by convection over the warm section around the upper cold vortex,it provided favorable thermal and dynamic conditions for the development of a tropical vortex.During its development,the zone of associated positive relative vorticity strengthened and descended from the mid-troposphere to lower levels.This rapid strengthening of lower-level vorticity was due to increasing convergence related to the intensification of the pressure gradient southwest of the subtropical high.This indicated that the upper cold vortex and West Pacific subtropical high played very important roles in this case.