Short-Term Household Load Forecasting Based on Attention Mechanism and CNN-ICPSO-LSTM

Accurate load forecasting forms a crucial foundation for implementing household demand response plans andoptimizing load scheduling. When dealing with short-term load data characterized by substantial fluctuations,a single prediction model is hard to capture temporal features effectively, resulting in diminished predictionaccuracy. In this study, a hybrid deep learning framework that integrates attention mechanism, convolution neuralnetwork (CNN), improved chaotic particle swarm optimization (ICPSO), and long short-term memory (LSTM), isproposed for short-term household load forecasting. Firstly, the CNN model is employed to extract features fromthe original data, enhancing the quality of data features. Subsequently, the moving average method is used for datapreprocessing, followed by the application of the LSTM network to predict the processed data. Moreover, the ICPSOalgorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters of LSTM, aimed at boosting the model’s running speed andaccuracy. Finally, the attention mechanism is employed to optimize the output value of LSTM, effectively addressinginformation loss in LSTM induced by lengthy sequences and further elevating prediction accuracy. According tothe numerical analysis, the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid model have been verified. It canexplore data features adeptly, achieving superior prediction accuracy compared to other forecasting methods forthe household load exhibiting significant fluctuations across different seasons.

Investigating Periodic Dependencies to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasting

With a further increase in energy flexibility for customers,short-term load forecasting is essential to provide benchmarks for economic dispatch and real-time alerts in power grids.The electrical load series exhibit periodic patterns and share high associations with metrological data.However,current studies have merely focused on point-wise models and failed to sufficiently investigate the periodic patterns of load series,which hinders the further improvement of short-term load forecasting accuracy.Therefore,this paper improved Autoformer to extract the periodic patterns of load series and learn a representative feature from deep decomposition and reconstruction.In addition,a novel multi-factor attention mechanism was proposed to handle multi-source metrological and numerical weather prediction data and thus correct the forecasted electrical load.The paper also compared the proposed model with various competitive models.As the experimental results reveal,the proposed model outperforms the benchmark models and maintains stability on various types of load consumers.

Generalized load graphical forecasting method based on modal decomposition

In a“low-carbon”context,the power load is affected by the coupling of multiple factors,which gradually evolves from the traditional“pure load”to the generalized load with the dual characteristics of“load+power supply.”Traditional time-series forecasting methods are no longer suitable owing to the complexity and uncertainty associated with generalized loads.From the perspective of image processing,this study proposes a graphical short-term prediction method for generalized loads based on modal decomposition.First,the datasets are normalized and feature-filtered by comparing the results of Xtreme gradient boosting,gradient boosted decision tree,and random forest algorithms.Subsequently,the generalized load data are decomposed into three sets of modalities by modal decomposition,and red,green,and blue(RGB)images are generated using them as the pixel values of the R,G,and B channels.The generated images are diversified,and an optimized DenseNet neural network was used for training and prediction.Finally,the base load,wind power,and photovoltaic power generation data are selected,and the characteristic curves of the generalized load scenarios under different permeabilities of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are obtained using the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise algorithm.Based on the proposed graphical forecasting method,the feasibility of the generalized load graphical forecasting method is verified by comparing it with the traditional time-series forecasting method.

A Levenberg–Marquardt Based Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is part and parcel of theefficient working of power grid stations. Accurate forecasts help to detect thefault and enhance grid reliability for organizing sufficient energy transactions.STLF ranges from an hour ahead prediction to a day ahead prediction. Variouselectric load forecasting methods have been used in literature for electricitygeneration planning to meet future load demand. A perfect balance regardinggeneration and utilization is still lacking to avoid extra generation and misusageof electric load. Therefore, this paper utilizes Levenberg–Marquardt(LM) based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique to forecast theshort-term electricity load for smart grids in a much better, more precise,and more accurate manner. For proper load forecasting, we take the mostcritical weather parameters along with historical load data in the form of timeseries grouped into seasons, i.e., winter and summer. Further, the presentedmodel deals with each season’s load data by splitting it into weekdays andweekends. The historical load data of three years have been used to forecastweek-ahead and day-ahead load demand after every thirty minutes makingload forecast for a very short period. The proposed model is optimized usingthe Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm to achieve results withcomparable statistics. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Root MeanSquared Error (RMSE), R2, and R are used to evaluate the model. Comparedwith other recent machine learning-based mechanisms, our model presentsthe best experimental results with MAPE and R2 scores of 1.3 and 0.99,respectively. The results prove that the proposed LM-based ANN modelperforms much better in accuracy and has the lowest error rates as comparedto existing work.

A Novel Ultra Short-Term Load Forecasting Method for Regional Electric Vehicle Charging Load Using Charging Pile Usage Degree

Electric vehicle(EV)charging load is greatly affected by many traffic factors,such as road congestion.Accurate ultra short-term load forecasting(STLF)results for regional EV charging load are important to the scheduling plan of regional charging load,which can be derived to realize the optimal vehicle to grid benefit.In this paper,a regional-level EV ultra STLF method is proposed and discussed.The usage degree of all charging piles is firstly defined by us based on the usage frequency of charging piles,and then constructed by our collected EV charging transactiondata in thefield.Secondly,these usagedegrees are combinedwithhistorical charging loadvalues toform the inputmatrix for the deep learning based load predictionmodel.Finally,long short-termmemory(LSTM)neural network is used to construct EV charging load forecastingmodel,which is trained by the formed inputmatrix.The comparison experiment proves that the proposed method in this paper has higher prediction accuracy compared with traditionalmethods.In addition,load characteristic index for the fluctuation of adjacent day load and adjacent week load are proposed by us,and these fluctuation factors are used to assess the prediction accuracy of the EV charging load,together with the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE).

Research on Short-Term Load Forecasting of Distribution Stations Based on the Clustering Improvement Fuzzy Time Series Algorithm

An improved fuzzy time series algorithmbased on clustering is designed in this paper.The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations.Firstly,the K-means clustering method is used to cluster the data,and the midpoint of two adjacent clustering centers is taken as the dividing point of domain division.On this basis,the data is fuzzed to form a fuzzy time series.Secondly,a high-order fuzzy relation with multiple antecedents is established according to the main measurement indexes of power load,which is used to predict the short-term trend change of load in the distribution stations.Matlab/Simulink simulation results show that the load forecasting errors of the typical fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−50,20]and[−50,30],while the load forecasting errors of the improved fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−20,15]and[−20,25].It shows that the fuzzy time series algorithm improved by clustering improves the prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the short-term load trend of distribution stations.

Short-Term Power Load Forecasting with Hybrid TPA-BiLSTM Prediction Model Based on CSSA

Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural network model based on the temporal pattern attention(TPA)mechanism.Firstly,based on the grey relational analysis,datasets similar to forecast day are obtained.Secondly,thebidirectional LSTM layermodels the data of thehistorical load,temperature,humidity,and date-type and extracts complex relationships between data from the hidden row vectors obtained by the BiLSTM network,so that the influencing factors(with different characteristics)can select relevant information from different time steps to reduce the prediction error of the model.Simultaneously,the complex and nonlinear dependencies between time steps and sequences are extracted by the TPA mechanism,so the attention weight vector is constructed for the hidden layer output of BiLSTM and the relevant variables at different time steps are weighted to influence the input.Finally,the chaotic sparrow search algorithm(CSSA)is used to optimize the hyperparameter selection of the model.The short-term power load forecasting on different data sets shows that the average absolute errors of short-termpower load forecasting based on our method are 0.876 and 4.238,respectively,which is lower than other forecastingmethods,demonstrating the accuracy and stability of our model.

Load-forecasting method for IES based on LSTM and dynamic similar days with multi-features

To fully exploit the rich characteristic variation laws of an integrated energy system(IES)and further improve the short-term load-forecasting accuracy,a load-forecasting method is proposed for an IES based on LSTM and dynamic similar days with multi-features.Feature expansion was performed to construct a comprehensive load day covering the load and meteorological information with coarse and fine time granularity,far and near time periods.The Gaussian mixture model(GMM)was used to divide the scene of the comprehensive load day,and gray correlation analysis was used to match the scene with the coarse time granularity characteristics of the day to be forecasted.Five typical days with the highest correlation with the day to be predicted in the scene were selected to construct a“dynamic similar day”by weighting.The key features of adjacent days and dynamic similar days were used to forecast multi-loads with fine time granularity using LSTM.Comparing the static features as input and the selection method of similar days based on non-extended single features,the effectiveness of the proposed prediction method was verified.

The Influence of Air Pollution Concentrations on Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using CNN-LSTM-mRMR Feature Extraction

Maintaining a steady power supply requires accurate forecasting of solar irradiance,since clean energy resources do not provide steady power.The existing forecasting studies have examined the limited effects of weather conditions on solar radiation such as temperature and precipitation utilizing convolutional neural network(CNN),but no comprehensive study has been conducted on concentrations of air pollutants along with weather conditions.This paper proposes a hybrid approach based on deep learning,expanding the feature set by adding new air pollution concentrations,and ranking these features to select and reduce their size to improve efficiency.In order to improve the accuracy of feature selection,a maximum-dependency and minimum-redundancy(mRMR)criterion is applied to the constructed feature space to identify and rank the features.The combination of air pollution data with weather conditions data has enabled the prediction of solar irradiance with a higher accuracy.An evaluation of the proposed approach is conducted in Istanbul over 12 months for 43791 discrete times,with the main purpose of analyzing air data,including particular matter(PM10 and PM25),carbon monoxide(CO),nitric oxide(NOX),nitrogen dioxide(NO_(2)),ozone(O₃),sulfur dioxide(SO_(2))using a CNN,a long short-term memory network(LSTM),and MRMR feature extraction.Compared with the benchmark models with root mean square error(RMSE)results of 76.2,60.3,41.3,32.4,there is a significant improvement with the RMSE result of 5.536.This hybrid model presented here offers high prediction accuracy,a wider feature set,and a novel approach based on air concentrations combined with weather conditions for solar irradiance prediction.

Machine Learning-based Electric Load Forecasting for Peak Demand Control in Smart Grid

Increasing energy demands due to factors such as population,globalization,and industrialization has led to increased challenges for existing energy infrastructure.Efficient ways of energy generation and energy consumption like smart grids and smart homes are implemented to face these challenges with reliable,cheap,and easily available sources of energy.Grid integration of renewable energy and other clean distributed generation is increasing continuously to reduce carbon and other air pollutants emissions.But the integration of distributed energy sources and increase in electric demand enhance instability in the grid.Short-term electrical load forecasting reduces the grid fluctuation and enhances the robustness and power quality of the grid.Electrical load forecasting in advance on the basic historical data modelling plays a crucial role in peak electrical demand control,reinforcement of the grid demand,and generation balancing with cost reduction.But accurate forecasting of electrical data is a very challenging task due to the nonstationary and nonlinearly nature of the data.Machine learning and artificial intelligence have recognized more accurate and reliable load forecastingmethods based on historical load data.The purpose of this study is to model the electrical load of Jajpur,Orissa Grid for forecasting of load using regression type machine learning algorithms Gaussian process regression(GPR).The historical electrical data and whether data of Jajpur is taken for modelling and simulation and the data is decided in such a way that the model will be considered to learn the connection among past,current,and future dependent variables,factors,and the relationship among data.Based on this modelling of data the network will be able to forecast the peak load of the electric grid one day ahead.The study is very helpful in grid stability and peak load control management.

Frequency Control Approach and Load Forecasting Assessment for Wind Systems

Frequency deviation has to be controlled in power generation units when there arefluctuations in system frequency.With several renewable energy sources,wind energy forecasting is majorly focused in this work which is a tough task due to its variations and uncontrollable nature.Whenever there is a mismatch between generation and demand,the frequency deviation may arise from the actual frequency 50 Hz(in India).To mitigate the frequency deviation issue,it is necessary to develop an effective technique for better frequency control in wind energy systems.In this work,heuristic Fuzzy Logic Based Controller(FLC)is developed for providing an effective frequency control support by modeling the complex behavior of the system to enhance the load forecasting in wind based hybrid power systems.Frequency control is applied to reduce the frequency deviation due tofluctuations and load prediction information using ANN(Artificial Neural Network)and SVM(Support Vector Machine)learning models.The performance analysis of the proposed method is done with different machine learning based approaches.The forecasting assessment is done over various climates with the aim to decrease the prediction errors and to demote the forecasting accuracy.Simulation results show that the Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE),Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Normalized Mean Absolute Error(NMAE)values are scaled down by 41.1%,9.9%and 23.1%respectively in the proposed method while comparing with existing wavelet and BPN based approach.

Short-Term Mosques Load Forecast Using Machine Learning and Meteorological Data

The tendency toward achieving more sustainable and green buildings turned several passive buildings into more dynamic ones.Mosques are the type of buildings that have a unique energy usage pattern.Nevertheless,these types of buildings have minimal consideration in the ongoing energy efficiency applications.This is due to the unpredictability in the electrical consumption of the mosques affecting the stability of the distribution networks.Therefore,this study addresses this issue by developing a framework for a short-term electricity load forecast for a mosque load located in Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.In this study,and by harvesting the load consumption of the mosque and meteorological datasets,the performance of four forecasting algorithms is investigated,namely Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Regression(SVR)based on three kernel functions:Radial Basis(RB),Polynomial,and Linear.In addition,this research work examines the impact of 13 different combinations of input attributes since selecting the optimal features has a major influence on yielding precise forecasting outcomes.For the mosque load,the(SVR-RB)with eleven features appeared to be the best forecasting model with the lowest forecasting errors metrics giving RMSE,nRMSE,MAE,and nMAE values of 4.207 kW,2.522%,2.938 kW,and 1.761%,respectively.

Data-Driven Load Forecasting Using Machine Learning and Meteorological Data

Electrical load forecasting is very crucial for electrical power systems’planning and operation.Both electrical buildings’load demand and meteorological datasets may contain hidden patterns that are required to be investigated and studied to show their potential impact on load forecasting.The meteorological data are analyzed in this study through different data mining techniques aiming to predict the electrical load demand of a factory located in Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.The factory load and meteorological data used in this study are recorded hourly between 2016 and 2017.These data are provided by King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy and Saudi Electricity Company at a site located in Riyadh.After applying the data pre-processing techniques to prepare the data,different machine learning algorithms,namely Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Regression(SVR),are applied and compared to predict the factory load.In addition,for the sake of selecting the optimal set of features,13 different combinations of features are investigated in this study.The outcomes of this study emphasize selecting the optimal set of features as more features may add complexity to the learning process.Finally,the SVR algorithm with six features provides the most accurate prediction values to predict the factory load.

Long-Term Electrical Load Forecasting in Rwanda Based on Support Vector Machine Enhanced with Q-SVM Optimization Kernel Function

In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access by 2024. Meanwhile, on the basis of the rapid and dynamic connection of new households, there is uncertainty about generating, importing, and exporting energy whichever imposes a significant barrier. Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) will be a key to the country’s utility plan to examine the dynamic electrical load demand growth patterns and facilitate long-term planning for better and more accurate power system master plan expansion. However, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) for long-term electric load forecasting is presented in this paper for accurate load mix planning. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work properly for LTLF, a hybrid Q-SVM will be introduced to improve forecasting accuracy. Finally, effectively assess model performance and efficiency, error metrics, and model benchmark parameters there assessed. The case study demonstrates that the new strategy is quite useful to improve LTLF accuracy. The historical electric load data of Rwanda Energy Group (REG), a national utility company from 1998 to 2020 was used to test the forecast model. The simulation results demonstrate the proposed algorithm enhanced better forecasting accuracy.

Theory Study and Application of the BP-ANN Method for Power Grid Short-Term Load Forecasting

Aiming at the low accuracy problem of power system short-term load forecasting by traditional methods, a back-propagation artificial neural network （BP-ANN） based method for short-term load forecasting is presented in this paper. The forecast points are related to prophase adjacent data as well as the periodical long-term historical load data. Then the short-term load forecasting model of Shanxi Power Grid （China） based on BP-ANN method and correlation analysis is established. The simulation model matches well with practical power system load, indicating the BP-ANN method is simple and with higher precision and practicality.

Real-time anomaly detection for very short-term load forecasting

Although the recent load information is critical to very short-term load forecasting(VSTLF), power companies often have difficulties in collecting the most recent load values accurately and timely for VSTLF applications.This paper tackles the problem of real-time anomaly detection in most recent load information used by VSTLF.This paper proposes a model-based anomaly detection method that consists of two components, a dynamic regression model and an adaptive anomaly threshold. The case study is developed using the data from ISO New England. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method significantly outperforms three other anomaly detection methods including two methods commonly used in the field and one state-of-the-art method used by a winning team of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. Finally, a general anomaly detection framework is proposed for the future research.

Knowledge mining collaborative DESVM correction method in short-term load forecasting

Short-term forecasting is a difficult problem because of the influence of non-linear factors and irregular events.A novel short-term forecasting method named TIK was proposed,in which ARMA forecasting model was used to consider the load time series trend forecasting,intelligence forecasting DESVR model was applied to estimate the non-linear influence,and knowledge mining methods were applied to correct the errors caused by irregular events.In order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed model,an application of the daily maximum load forecasting was evaluated.The experimental results show that the DESVR model improves the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) from 2.82% to 2.55%,and the knowledge rules can improve the MAPE from 2.55% to 2.30%.Compared with the single ARMA forecasting method and ARMA combined SVR forecasting method,it can be proved that TIK method gains the best performance in short-term load forecasting.

Research on Natural Gas Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Support Vector Regression

Natural gas load forecasting is a key process to the efficient operation of pipeline network. An accurate forecast is required to guarantee a balanced network operation and ensure safe gas supply at a minimum cost.Machine learning techniques have been increasingly applied to load forecasting. A novel regression technique based on the statistical learning theory, support vector machines (SVM), is investigated in this paper for natural gas shortterm load forecasting. SVM is based on the principle of structure risk minimization as opposed to the principle of empirical risk minimization in conventional regression techniques. Using a data set with 2 years load values we developed prediction model using SVM to obtain 31 days load predictions. The results on city natural gas short-term load forecasting show that SVM provides better prediction accuracy than neural network. The software package natural gas pipeline networks simulation and load forecasting (NGPNSLF) based on support vector regression prediction has been developed, which has also been applied in practice.

Short-term load forecasting based on fuzzy neural network

The fuzzy neural network is applied to the short-term load forecasting. The fuzzy rules and fuzzy membership functions of the network are obtained through fuzzy neural network learming. Three inference algorithms, i.e. themultiplicative inference, the maximum inference and the minimum inference, are used for comparison. The learningalgorithms corresponding to the inference methods are derived from back-propagation algorithm. To validate the fuzzyneural network model, the network is used to Predict short-term load by compaing the network output against the realload data from a local power system supplying electricity to a large steel manufacturer. The experimental results aresatisfactory.

Forecasting of Short-term Load based on LMD and BBO-RBF Model

Short-term load forecasting is a basis of power system dispatching and operation. In order to improve the short term power load precision, a novel approach for short-term load forecasting is presented based on local mean decomposition (LMD) and the radial basis function neural network method (RBFNN). Firstly, the decomposition of LMD method based on characteristics of load data then the decomposed data are respectively predicted by using the RBF network model and predicted by using the BBO-RBF network model. The simulation results show that the RBF network model optimized by using BBO algorithm is optimized in error performance index, and the prediction accuracy is higher and more effective.