The applications of risk index to risk estimation, risk acceptability, and cost-benefit analysis for planning vessel traffic service （VTS） system were analyzed. An example of Wuhan Port shows that its application is...The applications of risk index to risk estimation, risk acceptability, and cost-benefit analysis for planning vessel traffic service （VTS） system were analyzed. An example of Wuhan Port shows that its application is easily implemented and can be helpful in a comprcbensive and scientific decision-making. Especially aiming to the difficult problems with respect to risk prediction, risk acceptability and cost-benefit assessment, this article put forward some new solutions based on risk-index, such as the trendline estimation, ALARP （as low as reasonably practicable） matrix and weighted cost-benefit analysis, with a fairly good operability and comparability.展开更多
随着船舶自动识别系统(Automatic Identification System,AIS)和电子海图信息与显示系统(Electronic Chart Displayand Information System,ECDIS)的出现及普及,使船舶交通管理系统(Ves-sel Traffic Service,VTS)对其辖区的航行船舶进...随着船舶自动识别系统(Automatic Identification System,AIS)和电子海图信息与显示系统(Electronic Chart Displayand Information System,ECDIS)的出现及普及,使船舶交通管理系统(Ves-sel Traffic Service,VTS)对其辖区的航行船舶进行自动搁浅预警成为可能.针对预警自动化水平较低这一现状,提出搁浅预警(Search Area for Grounding A lert,SAGA)模型,通过判断船舶SAGA领域内最小水深是否满足安全要求来实现船舶搁浅预警.展开更多
To ensure that limited resources are allocated more effectively to reduce marine risks, formal safety assessment (FSA), a proactive method, is introduced in planning a vessel traffic system (VTS). Based on the data of...To ensure that limited resources are allocated more effectively to reduce marine risks, formal safety assessment (FSA), a proactive method, is introduced in planning a vessel traffic system (VTS). Based on the data of Wuhan port, some new solutions based on risk-indices are put forward. The weighted number of traffic accidents is predicted after the future weighted vessel traffic volume is estimated by analyzing the trend of trade development. To analyze risk acceptability, the as-low-as-reasonably-practicable (ALARP) matrix is transformed into a new model containing two parameters: the future weighted vessel traffic volume and the future weighted number of traffic accidents. The new risk control options (RCOs)can be identified by a revised Domino model with several feedback loops from all system levels to close a limited window of accident opportunity. The results indicate that the four most beneficial RCOs are a wider sub-area 1 channel, a VTS bridges area, a dredging sub-area 2 main route, and a VTS QSX anchorage to the 3rd bridge. The FSA is a method that is effective in evaluating the rationality, necessity and cost-effectiveness of VTS projects.展开更多
基金The project of Shanghai Science andTechnology Committee (No.052112060)
文摘The applications of risk index to risk estimation, risk acceptability, and cost-benefit analysis for planning vessel traffic service （VTS） system were analyzed. An example of Wuhan Port shows that its application is easily implemented and can be helpful in a comprcbensive and scientific decision-making. Especially aiming to the difficult problems with respect to risk prediction, risk acceptability and cost-benefit assessment, this article put forward some new solutions based on risk-index, such as the trendline estimation, ALARP （as low as reasonably practicable） matrix and weighted cost-benefit analysis, with a fairly good operability and comparability.
文摘随着船舶自动识别系统(Automatic Identification System,AIS)和电子海图信息与显示系统(Electronic Chart Displayand Information System,ECDIS)的出现及普及,使船舶交通管理系统(Ves-sel Traffic Service,VTS)对其辖区的航行船舶进行自动搁浅预警成为可能.针对预警自动化水平较低这一现状,提出搁浅预警(Search Area for Grounding A lert,SAGA)模型,通过判断船舶SAGA领域内最小水深是否满足安全要求来实现船舶搁浅预警.
基金Shanghai Pujiang Program,the Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (No.07ZZ103)
文摘To ensure that limited resources are allocated more effectively to reduce marine risks, formal safety assessment (FSA), a proactive method, is introduced in planning a vessel traffic system (VTS). Based on the data of Wuhan port, some new solutions based on risk-indices are put forward. The weighted number of traffic accidents is predicted after the future weighted vessel traffic volume is estimated by analyzing the trend of trade development. To analyze risk acceptability, the as-low-as-reasonably-practicable (ALARP) matrix is transformed into a new model containing two parameters: the future weighted vessel traffic volume and the future weighted number of traffic accidents. The new risk control options (RCOs)can be identified by a revised Domino model with several feedback loops from all system levels to close a limited window of accident opportunity. The results indicate that the four most beneficial RCOs are a wider sub-area 1 channel, a VTS bridges area, a dredging sub-area 2 main route, and a VTS QSX anchorage to the 3rd bridge. The FSA is a method that is effective in evaluating the rationality, necessity and cost-effectiveness of VTS projects.
