基于Vine Copula的梯级水库短期发电调度风险估计

基于能准确描述高维变量相关关系的Vine Copula,考虑短期径流预报误差的空间相关性,构建了梯级水库短期发电调度风险估计模型,并将模型应用于长江上游溪洛渡、向家坝和三峡水库,分析了径流预报误差带来的单一水库、梯级水库短期发电调度风险。结果表明:基于C-vine Copula构建的联合分布能较好地描述屏山站、朱沱站、寸滩站和武隆站的日径流预报误差特性;随着水库可调节安全区间范围增大,单一水库发电量不足风险率、弃水风险率均越来越小,梯级水库发电量不足、弃水联合风险率和同现风险率越来越小,即水库调节库容越大,其承担的风险也就越小。

Development and application of KASP marker for high throughput detection of the seedless trait in grapevine

Molecular marker-assisted selection(MAS) can significantly accelerate and improve the efficiency of the breeding process in seedless grape cultivars. In this study, we developed the KASP_VviAGL11 and VviAGL11_410 markers based on a single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP) site(Chr18: 26889437(A/C)) of the VviAGL11 gene, and compared them with previously reported SSR markers p3_VvAGL11 and 5U_VviAGL11 by testing 101 cultivars and 81 F1 hybrid progenies. The results showed that both of the proposed markers obtained 100% accuracy rates in detecting allele A, which was closely associated with the seedless trait in grapes, while p3_VvAGL11 and 5U_VviAGL11 had lower accuracy rates due to their tendency to produce false positives. After careful evaluation of the technical advantages and disadvantages associated with these markers, we concluded that KASP_VviAGL11 was superior in terms of simplicity,cost-effectiveness, efficiency, and accuracy. Thus, we optimized the process of molecular MAS for seedless grapes,focusing on the KASP_VviAGL11 marker as a central component, to provide key technical support for the development of new seedless grape cultivars.

基于Vine Copula的鄱阳湖流域近70年洪水空间分异规律

量化流域的洪水空间分异规律,对防洪减灾具有重要意义。采用鄱阳湖流域不同支流7个水文站近70 a日径流量资料,利用自动峰值超阈值模型、主衰退曲线分析法确定总洪量、洪峰流量和持续时间3个洪水特征,基于Vine Copula模型建立三维联合分布,计算联合、同现和2种条件重现期来对比研究各支流的洪水演化规律。结果显示:洪峰流量最优边缘分布为对数正态分布,总洪量以伽马分布为主;Gaussian Copula模型对洪峰流量和总洪量的相关性结构拟合效果良好,Gaussian Copula模型和Student t Copula模型适合建立总洪量条件下洪峰流量和持续时间的相关性结构;鄱阳湖流域西部会形成总洪量、洪峰流量和持续时间均较大的灾难性大洪水;流域东部容易在短期内积累较大的洪量,而不会形成持续性洪水;在洪量一定的情况下,流域南部洪水的洪峰流量最大。研究结果可为鄱阳湖流域改进洪水预警方法和制定洪水分级管理策略提供参考。

基于GRAPES全球分析系统的Hybrid-3DVAR混合同化研究

本文基于我国自主研发的GRAPES全球3DVAR同化系统,利用NCEP全球集合预报产品和time-lagged方法,针对膨胀系数、集合样本数和集合权重系数,开展了每日4次、连续一周的GRAPES全球Hybrid-3DVAR混合同化研究。结果表明:所有试验中,集合样本取60个、集合权重取0.5时,得到的混合同化分析和预报误差最小;在该混合同化系统中,在高层也考虑静态背景误差协方差和集合背景误差协方差的耦合,可避免混合同化方案分析场误差在150 hPa及以上过大,并超过3DVAR分析场误差的情况。

基于Vine-Copula的高土石坝变形监控模型研究

针对高土石坝变形监控模型主要基于单一测点,无法定量考虑测点空间关联性的问题,构建了基于Vine-Copula的变形监控模型,并提出了基于蒙特卡洛随机抽样法的空间置信域预警阈值设置方法。在模型构建过程中,充分考虑了多测点之间的时序特性和空间相关性,利用Vine-Copula方法对变形数据进行精确建模和分析,以揭示高土石坝变形的整体趋势。同时,通过蒙特卡洛随机抽样法确定了空间置信域,为预警阈值的设定提供了科学依据。工程实践表明:该模型模拟结果能够准确反映高土石坝变形的整体趋势,具有较高的合理性和精度,有效实现了监测效应量向高土石坝空间全域的拓展。研究成果可为高土石坝安全监控提供新的思路和方法,具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。

Identification of UGT85A glycosyltransferases associated with volatile conjugation in grapevine(Vitis vinifera × Vitis labrusca)

Glycosylated volatiles are considered as hidden aroma precursors that affect fruit flavor and are involved in plant defense response. Several uridine-diphosphate(UDP)-glycosyltransferase(UGT) members related to the glycosylation of volatiles have been identified from grapevine berries. Although grapevine leaves produced much higher levels of glycosylated volatiles than berries, UGTs responsible for the production of glycosylated volatiles in leaves have not yet been identified. Here, eight novel UGT genes were cloned, among these four members that belong to UGT85A family(named UGT85A24, UGT85A25, UGT85A26, and UGT85A27) were localized in the cytoplasm and their recombinant proteins showed activity toward volatiles detected in grapevine, with geraniol as the preferred substrate in vitro. Two UGT genes with 98.1% homology differ in R/S-linalool selection. The UGT85A26-catalyzed substrate showed enrichment in S-linalool, whereas UGT85A27 showed a strong preference for R-linalool. UGT85A24 and UGT85A25 were expressed mainly in berries, and UGT85A26 and UGT85A27 were expressed predominantly in grapevine mature leaves and correlated with the highest content of glycosylated volatiles in the mature leaves. Methyl jasmonate(MeJA) induced the expression of UGT85A26 and UGT85A27 as well as the production of linalyl-β-glucoside, citronellyl-β-glucoside and phenethyl-β-glucoside. Transient overexpression of UGT85A26 and UGT85A27 in tobacco leaves led to the accumulation of linalyl-β-glucoside and an increase in citronellyl-β-glucoside in vivo. These results indicate that the expression of UGT85A26 and UGT85A27 is a major regulator affecting the content of glycosylated volatiles in grapevine.

基于Vine Copula的强风暴雨复合型风险分析

构建基于D-Vine Copula函数的强风暴雨复合型分布模型,利用北京市十三陵水库流域的实测数据进行敏感性分析及风险评估。结果表明:联合分布对降水量、降水强度、风速和温度4个研究因子的敏感性具有差异性。基于敏感性分析结果,随着降水强度和风速的概率分布值增大,联合概率分布增大,同现概率分布减小,最大联合风险率为24.5%;随着降水强度和降水量的概率分布值增大,联合概率分布增大,同现概率分布减小,最大联合风险率为18.1%;Vine Copula可较好地反映出水文气象因子间的相关关系,降水强度和风速、降水量和降水强度的概率分布值及组合风险率均对联合分布呈现正相关关系,发生气象灾害时易出现联合响应。该研究为强风暴雨复合型风险的调控等提供了理论与方法支撑。

基于C-Vine Copula函数的台风灾害链“风-雨-潮”联合概率分布研究

现有台风灾害链研究大多采用高维对称Copula模型建立多个致灾因子的联合分布,对致灾因子之间非线性、非对称的复杂关联结构探究不足。文章以浙江岛屿城市舟山为例,通过C-VineCopula函数刻画当地台风灾害链“风-雨-潮”之间的复杂依赖关系,利用1979—2018年逐日的最大持续风速、累积降雨量以及最大风暴增水数据估算三者的联合概率分布以及重现期。研究表明:1)风速与降雨量在常规数值区间(非极端情况)具有较强的相关性,最佳联合分布为Frank Copula;风速与风暴增水具有上尾依赖的特征,最佳联合分布为Gumbel Copula;2)降雨量分布在风速条件下显示2处峰值,风暴增水分布在风速条件下近似于均匀,两者之间的最佳联合分布为Gumbel Copula;3)以单变量100 a重现期为例,风速-降雨量与风速-风暴增水组合事件的二维联合重现期分别缩短至29和30 a,而风速-降雨量-风暴增水组合事件的三维联合重现期缩短至17 a。综上,C-VineCopula函数能准确有效地刻画台风灾害链“风-雨-潮”之间的复杂依赖关系,深化对于台风灾害链内在作用机制的理解,为台风灾害风险管理和工程设计提供科学支持。

The Use of Secondary Grape Biomass in Beef Cattle Nutrition on Carcass Characteristics, Quality and Shelf Life of Meat

We determined whether the inclusion of 100 g/kg dry matter of grape pomace silage (GPS) and grape pomace bran (GPB) as substitutes for other traditional fiber sources in the diet of steers (Charolais x Nellore) would improve carcass characteristics, meat quality and composition, and shelf life. Twenty-four animals (248 ± 19.32 kg of initial body weight) were fed a high concentrate diet for 121 days. Carcass characteristics were measured, and the longissimus dorsi muscle was analyzed for fatty acid (FA) profile and composition. The meat was sliced and stored in air-permeable packages for 10 days. On each sampling day (d 1, 3, 7, and 10), oxidative stability, bacterial load, lipid and protein oxidation, and staining were analyzed. The experimental diets influenced the pH of cold carcasses only. The GPS group had a higher pH than the control. The GPS and GPB groups showed improved oxidant status (i.e., lower lipid peroxidation and concentrations of reactive oxygen species were in the meat of both groups than in control). On the first day of storage, the antioxidant enzyme glutathione S-transferase activity was more significant in the meat of the GPS and GPB groups than in the control. The bacterial loads in the meat were attenuated by GPS inclusion;there were lower total coliform counts and a trend toward lower counts for enterobacteria in the control group. The diets altered the FA profile of the meat;i.e., the GPB diet allowed for a more significant amount of the n-6 omegas in the meat, while the GPS diet showed a tendency for a more significant amount of n-6 and 9 omegas. Both diets (GPS and GPB) increased the amounts of long-chain FAs. The GPS diet decreased saturated FA levels. We conclude that the dietary treatments GPS and GPB are a promising alternative to maintain meat quality standards throughout in real-world retail conditions. These treatments gave rise to an improvement in the nutritional value of the meat due to the more significant amounts of FAs that improve human health.

Identification,characterization,and verification of miR399 target gene in grape

The microRNA miR399 plays an important role in phosphorus signal transduction pathways in plants.Previously,miR399 was shown to be closely associated with berry ripening in grape(Vitis vinifera).The objective of the present study was to elucidate the evolutionary characteristics of the miR399 gene family in grape and to verify the cleavage effect on the target genes.Grape miR399s were identified by miRNA sequencing and retrieval from the miRBase database.The mature sequences and precursor sequences were subjected to phylogenetic analysis to reconstruct evolutionary trees,as well as secondary structure analysis of the precursor sequence,and prediction of target genes.The cisacting elements in the miR399 promoter were predicted and the cleavage effect of grape miR399b on its target genes was verified.The grape miR399 family comprised nine precursor sequences and nine mature sequences.The precursor sequences formed a typical and stable stem—loop structure.The minimum folding free energy ranged from-55.70 kcal·mol^(-1)to-37.40 kcal·mol^(-1).Multiple sequence alignment revealed that the miR399 family was highly conserved.The grape miR399 family was phylogenetically closely related to peach,apple,and citrus miR399s.Grape miR399s were predicted to target inorganic phosphate transporter 1—3,phospholipase D delta-like,and beta-glucuronosyltransferase.The cleavage effect of grape miR399b on the target genes was verified by means of a dual-luciferase assay and 5’RLM-RACE.Histochemical GUS staining showed that the promoter activity of miR399b was promoted by GA3treatment.

基于R Vine Copula的VaR模型期货市场的风险度量

按照传统投资组合的观点,投资者通过投资于低相关性的不同资产可以起到分散风险的作用,资产与资产之间的关系一般以线性相关性来衡量。然而,不同资产之间的关系并非纯粹的线性相关,现实中不同资产之间具有不同的线性相关,但又往往在同一个时间点发生极端的风险损失。构建基于R Vine Copula的VaR风险度量模型,采用Copula模型获得了不同期货资产收益率的相依结构,测算出不同期货资产之间的尾部相依系数,并计算出这些期货资产之间的联合分布和条件分布,在此基础上对各资产在条件相依结构下的VaR进行估计,最后对这些期货资产的VaR进行Kupiec检验,检验结果验证了该模型估计风险的准确性和有效性。

Alternative splicing of the PECTINESTERASE gene encoding a cell wall-degrading enzyme affects postharvest softening in grape

The firmness of table grape berries is a crucial quality parameter. Despite extensive research on postharvest fruit softening, its precise molecular mechanisms remain elusive. To enhance our comprehension of the underlying molecular factors, we initially identified differentially expressed genes(DEGs) by comparing the transcriptomes of folic acid(FA)-treated and water-treated(CK) berries at different time points. We then analyzed the sequences to detect alternatively spliced(AS) genes associated with postharvest softening. A total of 2,559 DEGs were identified and categorized into four subclusters based on their expression patterns, with subcluster-4 genes exhibiting higher expression in the CK group compared with the FA treatment group. There were 1,045 AS-associated genes specific to FA-treated berries and 1,042 in the CK-treated berries, respectively. Gene Ontology(GO) annotation indicated that the AS-associated genes in CK-treated berries were predominantly enriched in cell wall metabolic processes,particularly cell wall degradation processes. Through a comparison between treatment-associated AS genes and subcluster-4 DEGs, we identified eight genes, including Pectinesterase 2(VvPE2, Vitvi15g00704), which encodes a cell wall-degrading enzyme and was predicted to undergo an A3SS event. The reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction further confirmed the presence of a truncated transcript variant of VvPE2 in the FA-treated berries.Our study provides a comprehensive analysis of AS events in postharvest grape berries using transcriptome sequencing and underscores the pivotal role of VvPE2 during the postharvest storage of grape berries.

Genome-Wide Exploration of the Grape GLR Gene Family and Differential Responses of VvGLR3.1 and VvGLR3.2 to Low Temperature and Salt Stress

Grapes,one of the oldest tree species globally,are rich in vitamins.However,environmental conditions such as low temperature and soil salinization significantly affect grape yield and quality.The glutamate receptor(GLR)family,comprising highly conserved ligand-gated ion channels,regulates plant growth and development in response to stress.In this study,11 members of the VvGLR gene family in grapes were identified using whole-genome sequence analysis.Bioinformatic methods were employed to analyze the basic physical and chemical properties,phylogenetic trees,conserved domains,motifs,expression patterns,and evolutionary relationships.Phylogenetic and collinear analyses revealed that the VvGLRs were divided into three subgroups,showing the high conservation of the grape GLR family.These members exhibited 2 glutamate receptor binding regions(GABAb and GluR)and 3-4 transmembrane regions(M1,M2,M3,and M4).Real-time quantitative PCR analysis demonstrated the sensitivity of all VvGLRs to low temperature and salt stress.Subsequent localization studies in Nicotiana tabacum verified that VvGLR3.1 and VvGLR3.2 proteins were located on the cell membrane and cell nucleus.Additionally,yeast transformation experiments confirmed the functionality of VvGLR3.1 and VvGLR3.2 in response to low temperature and salt stress.Thesefindings highlight the significant role of the GLR family,a highly conserved group of ion channels,in enhancing grape stress resistance.This study offers new insights into the grape GLR gene family,providing fundamental knowledge for further functional analysis and breeding of stress-resistant grapevines.

Adsorption Effect of Phosphate Modified Grape Branch Biochar on Cd2

Two major problems facing agriculture at present are soil pollution and the disposal of solid wastes generated during plant growth. The method of preparing biochar from solid wastes produced by plants is a means of maximizing the use of resources to combat the problem of soil pollution. In this study, we did not choose straw in the traditional sense but the waste branches from grape pruning, which has higher lignin cellulose, as the raw material. The biochar derived from grape branches pyrolyzed at 300˚C for two hours was utilized as a raw material to prepare modified biochar with varying concentrations of phosphoric acid. The adsorption performance and mechanism of Cd2 were explored through experiments involving different concentrations, addition amounts, reaction times, kinetic analyses, and isothermal adsorption tests. The findings indicated that the optimal adsorption of Cd2 occurred with a 20% phosphoric acid concentration, achieving the highest adsorption rate of 84.62%. At a dosage of 10 g/L, the maximum adsorption capacity reached 7.02 mg/g. The adsorption kinetics and isothermal adsorption of Cd2 on biochar modified with 0.2% phosphoric acid (0.2 PB) closely followed the pseudo-first-order kinetics model (R2 > 0.98) and the Freundlich model (R2 > 0.97), respectively. This suggests that the adsorption process involves both physical and chemical mechanisms. SEM and FTIR analyses revealed that phosphoric acid modification primarily increased the biochar’s specific surface area and enhanced certain original functional groups. The adsorption process predominantly involved rapid ion diffusion and chemical adsorption, as confirmed by kinetic analysis and isothermal adsorption model analysis. In summary, the adsorption efficiency of 0.2 PB significantly improved, showing potential and feasibility for heavy metal remediation in soil. This supports the environmentally friendly concept of “treating waste with waste”.

基于Vine Copula的REITs市场极端风险溢出效应研究

随着金融全球化不断推进,REITs(不动产信托投资基金)市场价格震荡幅度加剧,不同REITs市场间风险扩散加快,需准确度量价格波动带来的风险及其溢出传导机制。文章从多市场关联角度出发,结合Vine Copula模型与CoVaR模型,研究REITs市场间的极端风险溢出效应。研究结果表明:国际REITs市场间的相依性存在明显的区域集聚特征;欧美REITs市场对外的尾部相依性均值较高,亚洲REITs市场之间的尾部相依性偏弱;主要REITs市场间大部分都具有双向的风险溢出效应且呈现出非对称性,较强相依结构的REITs市场间的双向风险溢出效应极其明显。本研究有助于从整体上把握REITs市场间极端风险溢出效应,为维护金融稳定、防范不同地区市场间风险传导提供借鉴,帮助投资者进行风险管理。

基于LASSO回归的R-vine copula模型构建及其在化工过程故障检测中的应用

Vine copula模型在描述高维数据间的非线性、非高斯特性相依关系问题上提供了一种新的思路,在化工过程建模领域受到越来越多关注。笔者将LASSO(least absolute shrinkage and selection operator)回归引入R-vine copula(LASSO-R-vine copula,LRVC),根据变量间联系的强弱程度确定变量在R-vine矩阵中的位置,利用回归分析正则化路径选择R-vine copula矩阵结构,遵循R-vine矩阵构建规则和回归过程确定R-vine结构矩阵模型,以获得一个与变量独立性有关的稀疏矩阵模型。该方法构建的矩阵结构独立于copula函数类型和参数,在处理高维度复杂工业过程数据时,利用稀疏模型和惩罚力度简化copula函数类型选择过程,缩短了建模时间,使统计建模具有更强的灵活性。该方法在TE(Tennessee Eastman)和醋酸脱水过程故障监测中表现出较好的预测效果,证明了提出的方法在非线性、非高斯过程的有效性。

The Effect of Vineyard Cover Crop on Main Monomeric Phenols of Grape Berry and Wine in Vitis viniferal L. cv. Cabernet Sauvignon

This study was conducted to determine the effect of cover crop inter-row in vineyard on main mono-phenol content of grape berry and wine. Three such cover crops, two perennial legumes （white clover and alfalfa） and a perennial gramineous grass （tall fescue） were sown in vineyard. The main phenolic compounds of mature grape berry and wines vinified under the same conditions were extracted with ethyl acetate and diethyl ether and analyzed by high- performance liquid chromatography （HPLC） by comparing to soil tillage. A total of ten phenolic compounds were identified and quantified in the different grape berry and wines, including nonflavonoids （hydroxybenzoic and hydroxycinnamic acids） and flavonoids （flavanols and flavonols）. The concentration of flavonoid compounds （409.43 to 538.63 mg kg^-1 and 56.16 to 81.30 mg L^-1） was higher than nonflavonoids （76.91 to 98.85 mg kg^-1 and 30.65 to 41.22 mg L^-1） for Cabernet Sauvignon grape and wine under different treatments, respectively. In the flavonoid phenolics, Catechin was the most abundant in the different grapes and wines, accounting for 74.94 to 79.70% and 48.60 to 50.62% of total nonanthocyanin phenolics quantified, respectively. Compared to soil tillage, the sward treatments showed a higher content of main mono-phenol and total nonanthocyanin phenolics in grapes and wines. There were significant differences between two cover crop treatments （tall fescue and white clover） and soil tillage for the content of benzoic acid, salicylic acid, caffeic acid, catechin, and total phenolics in the grape berry （P 〈 0.05 or P〈0.01）. The wine from tall fescue cover crop had the highest gallic acid, caffeic acid and catechin. Cover crop system increased the total nonanthocyanin phenolics of grapes and wines in order of the four treatments： tall fescue, white clover, alfalfa, and soil tillage （control）. Cover crop in vineyard increased total phenols of grape berry and wine, and thus improved the quality of wine evidently.

Effects of intercropping vines with tobacco and root extracts of tobacco on grape phylloxera, Daktulosphaira vitifoliae Fitch

The effects of grape-tobacco intercropping patterns on populations of grape phylloxera, Daktulosphaira vitifoliae Fitch, as well as on the growth and development of the infested vines were evaluated in the field and the impact of an aqueous tobacco root extract on grape phylloxera was evaluated using a laboratory bioassay. The aqueous tobacco root extract exhibited biological activity against this pest. The egg mortality, nymph mortality, development period, life span and female fecundity were significantly affected. In the field trial, grape phylloxera populations were clearly lower as compared to the monoculture pattern. However, the rates of newly developed roots and newly infested grape roots were significantly higher and lower, in intercropping patterns than in the vine monoculture, respectively. The grape phylloxera population number on the grape roots decreased each year, and the vine trees gradually renewed upon continuous intercropping with tobacco over three years. These results confirmed that intercropping grapes with tobacco can effectively control grape phylloxera in an infested vineyard. The results also indicated that additional crops could be intercropped with grapes and are effective against grape phylloxera, which should be explored as an integrated approach for controlling the pest.

Melatonin enhances salt tolerance by promoting MYB108A-mediated ethylene biosynthesis in grapevines

The signal molecules melatonin and ethylene play key roles in abiotic stress tolerance.The interplay between melatonin and ethylene in regulating salt tolerance and the underlying molecular mechanism of this interplay remain unclear.Here,we found that both melatonin and 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid(ACC,a precursor of ethylene)enhanced the tolerance of grapevine to NaCl;additionally,ethylene participated in melatonin-induced salt tolerance.Further experiments indicated that exogenous treatment and endogenous induction of melatonin increased the ACC content and ethylene production in grapevine and tobacco plants,respectively.The expression of MYB108A and ACS1,which function as a transcription factor and a key gene involved in ethylene production,respectively,was strongly induced by melatonin treatment.Additionally,MYB108A directly bound to the promoter of ACS1 and activated its transcription.MYB108A expression promoted ACC synthesis and ethylene production by activating ACS1 expression in response to melatonin treatment.The suppression of MYB108A expression partially limited the effect of melatonin on the induction of ethylene production and reduced melatonin-induced salt tolerance.Collectively,melatonin promotes ethylene biosynthesis and salt tolerance through the regulation of ACS1 by MYB108A.

Current understanding of grapevine defense mechanisms against the biotrophic fungus (Erysiphe necator), the causal agent of powdery mildew disease

The most economically important disease of cultivated grapevines worldwide is powdery mildew(PM)caused by the ascomycete fungus Erysiphe necator.The majority of grapevine cultivars used for wine,table grape,and dried fruit production are derived from the Eurasian grape species Vitis vinifera because of its superior aroma and flavor characteristics.However,this species has little genetic resistance against E.necator meaning that grape production is highly dependent on the frequent use of fungicides.The integration of effective genetic resistance into cultivated grapevines would lead to significant financial and environmental benefits and represents a major challenge for viticultural industries and researchers worldwide.This review will outline the strategies being used to increase our understanding of the molecular basis of V.vinifera susceptibility to this fungal pathogen.It will summarize our current knowledge of different resistance loci/genes that have evolved in wild grapevine species to restrict PM infection and assess the potential application of these defense genes in the generation of PM-resistant grapevine germplasm.Finally,it addresses future research priorities which will be important in the rapid identification,evaluation,and deployment of new PM resistance genes which are capable of conferring effective and durable resistance in the vineyard.