The global financial crisis and China's economic security

As financial derivatives have exploded like bombs,one ofter another,capital injections by the U.S.and European governments are becoming gradually ineffective.These rescue measures will fail to revese the banding crisis,and even worse,may plunge the global economy from deflation into a cycle of inflation during recession.Ultimately,economic collapse and hyperinflation may occur simultaneously.In response to this grave possibility,China should unite first stakeholders in demanding the U.S.government strictly distinguish two kinds of debts in its rescue package:The first are bonds such as U.S.pension funds,3A grade bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae,and U.S.government bonds held by other countries,These are creditor’s rights,which should be guaranteed with top priority.The second kind are debts deriving from the speculation at financial institutions such as highly leveraged derivatives,which have reached astronomical figures.Attempts to rescue such bad debts will only lead to hyperinflation.

Does the Establishment of Pilot Free Trade Zones Improve the Efficiency of Financial Services for the Real Economy?Empirical Evidence from Four Pilot Free Trade Zones in Shanghai,Tianjin,Guangdong,and Fujian

In the process of the high-quality transformation and development of China's economy,one of the issues that needs to be resolved is how to strengthen the ability of finance to serve the real economy and improve the efficiency of financial operations.Pilot Free Trade Zones(PFTZs),highlands of institutional innovation,have played the role of a natural testing ground for China to deepen its financial supply-side reform and improve the efficiency of financial services in the real economy.On that premise,this paper discusses the policy effects and transmission channels for the financial reform of PFTZs to improve the efficiency of financial services in the real economy within China.The findings of the papar are the followings,(1)The reform of PFTZsshas significantly improved the efficiency offinance in the real economy,having even achieved a sustainable effect.That is to say,with the extension of gment This work wasthe duration of free trade zone constructionand the gradual implementation of financialreform measures,the regional impactof financial services in the real economyhas shown a year-on-year upward trend.(2)The effects of financial agglomeration,financial transparency,and optimizationof financial infrastructure produced by thereform of PFTZs have played a significantregulatory role in the process of improvingthe efficiency of financial services in thefree trade zones.(3)The effect of China'sfinancial reform on PFTZs has fosterednoticeable regional diversity;an importantreason for the diversity of policy effectrests with the difference in transmissionmechanisms.The conclusions of this paper expand the research dimension of theliterature evaluating the effect of policy onPFTZs,and provide policy references fromthe perspective of financial reform in thefree trade zones for China to further deepenfinancial supply-side reform and improvethe efficiency of financial services in the realeconomy.

Does China’s Financial System Amplify Risks in the Real Economy?

The smooth operation of the financial system can promote economic growth by absorbing risks,while the risks breaking out in the financial system will drag down economic development through risk spillovers and amplification.On this basis,this paper uses secondary industry indices to build a risk spillover network between the real economy and the financial system,and discusses the risk absorption and amplification role of the financial system in China’s economy and finance from the perspective of industry.First,on the whole,the source of risks in China’s economic and financial system lies in the real economy.The financial system plays a role of risk absorption in China’s economic and financial system,demonstrating the professional risk management functions of the financial system.The risk absorption of the financial system is positively correlated with the risks in the real economy,and negatively correlated with the risks in the financial system.Second,from the perspective of the correlation between the financial sub-industry and the real economy,the banking sector has the closest relationship with the real economy and the lowest risk absorption capacity.Third,from the perspective of the internal correlation of the financial system,the internal network correlation of the financial system is asymmetric.Diversifi ed financial industry has stronger risk spillover effect on the banking industry and the insurance industry,while the insurance industry has stronger risk spillover effect on the banking industry.These results are essentially related to the functioning of the financial system,the internal relationship of the financial system and the relationship between the financial system and the real economy.

ECONOMY

Fiscal and Financial Policy to Bolster Real EconomyChina will continue with stable macroeconomic policies and adopt a combination of fiscal and fnancial measures in an effort to boost domestic demand and bolster support for real economy, the State Council's executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang decided in the end of July.

Determinants of corporate cash holdings in tranquil and turbulent period:evidence from an emerging economy

Using a sample of 280 firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange,we empirically investigate factors that determine corporate cash holdings in different periods from 2005 to 2014.We divide the sample into three sub-periods—pre-crisis,crisis,and post-crisis—and apply a panel data model to estimate the results.The results suggest that financial crises affect firms’cash holdings policies.Further,findings show that financial crisis has influenced the relationship of size and leverage with cash holdings.In particular,cash flow,liquidity,and tangibility are major determinants of cash holdings in the sub-periods.We present important implications for corporate managers,academicians,and policymakers.

Virtualization of Real Estate Industry and Housing Bubbles --Empirical Evidence from China

In the last twenty years, China has experienced a rapid development in the real estate industry. The continuous rising house price causes many social and economic problems and draws a lot of attentions from academia, business world and government. Many researchers shed light on this problem from different angles, but till today, it hasn’t been fully resolved. In this paper, we try to examine the real estate bubble from a virtual economic perspective. We think that the virtual feature of real estate alters its economic role from a purely living and working place to a financing instrument. We use the newest monthly data of China real estate market from 2006 to 2018 and estimate the relationship between the housing bubble and real estate industry virtualization. We identify a significant positive association between house price index and the purchase price of land in real estate investment. This result suggests that virtual feature of real estate has deepen the bubble problem in the industry and its virtualization degree appears to be closely related to the virtual feature of land and its price proportion to real estate investment.

Reform of Financial Institutions—— Getting it Right

The purpose of this article is to reflect upon the importance and the role of financial institutions before, during, and after the financial crisis and to outline proposals for alternative approaches to the financial crisis. Without an understanding of the historic development, nature and scope, and important limitations of modem financial institutions, the regulatory reform of modem financial institutions cannot be successful. The success of financial reforms and their restructuring can only be measured when modem financial institutions participate, support, and develop the real economy and support a more balanced, inclusive, and diverse social development process. This is what the really ＂exciting＂ banking and finance organizations should stand for. The regulatory reforms, bail-outs, and dominant ideas about the European banking union, for example, are impeding, rather than facilitating, hope for real economic and social recovery on both sides of the Atlantic. The method used in the present article, is legal and institutional analysis of the financial institutions. The empirical and comparative overview of the role and importance of financial institutions shows the variety of financial institutions developed in different historical and socio-economic circumstances. They show there is no one single best model of financial institutions that could be universally applicable. The design and the regulatory framework for the financial institutions should therefore take into account the overall strategy of economic and social development. In absence of any such comprehensive strategy it is unlikely that the regulatory reform of the financial institutions can be successful.

数字金融创新有助于促进实体经济高质量发展吗?——基于金融服务效率的机制分析与空间计量

中央金融工作会议强调,坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨。数字金融作为数字技术与金融业态融合创新的产物,对提升金融服务效率,支持实体经济高质量发展具有重要意义。基于2011-2021年中国31个省级行政区的平衡面板数据,通过构建实体经济高质量发展指标体系和嵌套空间权重矩阵,运用空间计量模型、动态杜宾模型和中介效应检验方法,实证研究数字金融创新对实体经济高质量发展的直接影响、溢出效应和作用机制,得出:数字金融创新不仅能直接促进本地区实体经济的高质量发展,而且具有正向空间溢出效应,对邻近地区实体经济高质量发展呈现渐进、动态的长期影响。中介效应检验结果表明,提升金融服务效率是数字金融创新促进实体经济高质量发展的主要作用机制。在金融科技创新监管试点地区,数字金融创新对实体经济高质量发展的直接影响、溢出效应和中介效应均明显高于非试点地区。因此,要稳步推进金融科技创新监管试点,优化数字金融业态空间布局,畅通数字金融促进实体经济高质量发展的传导机制。

General Aspects of Financial Law

The aim of this article is to outline the general parts of the legal branch called financial law. It is intended as the first part of a series of articles outlineing the topic in detail. The aim of the submitted contribution is to demonstrate that the financial and legal aspects created the basis of economic development of the regions from the early beginnings of human society. Social relations constituting the subject-matter of the financial law had been developing, changing, and had become established before the financial law itself has been constituted. These relations seem to have been present from the very beginning of the existence of the human society. Regulatory acts associated with regulation of these relationships embodied solidarity and methodological specificities. The specificity of the subject-matter of regulation, solidarity and methodological specificities of the financial, and legal standards sufficiently define superstructure with a natural law character. The superstructure is based on constitutional system of national states after the EU integration has been completed on the EU law. As we can evaluate retrospectively, the transfer of fmanciallaw competencies in Brussels was a failiure. Since the political union was established through the Lisbon treaty in 2009 the European sovereign debt crisis emerged and ravaged the EU until today.

金融科技创新如何促进实体经济高质量发展——基于金融服务效率的机制分析与空间计量

金融科技创新对于提升金融服务效率,服务实体经济具有重要意义。基于2011—2021年我国31个省份的平衡面板数据,运用空间计量模型和中介效应检验,研究金融科技创新对实体经济高质量发展的直接影响、间接效应和作用机制。研究发现:金融科技创新不仅能直接促进本地区实体经济高质量发展,而且具有正向空间溢出,对邻近地区实体经济高质量发展呈现渐进、动态的长期影响。中介效应和异质性检验表明,提升金融服务效率是金融科技创新促进实体经济高质量发展的主要机制。在金融科技创新监管试点地区,金融科技对实体经济高质量发展的直接影响、间接效应和中介效应均明显高于非试点地区。因此,要优化金融科技业态空间布局,提升金融服务效率,深化金融科技创新监管试点,以更好地服务实体经济高质量发展。

营商环境与企业“脱实向虚”

基于A股上市公司数据,探讨在“以国内大循环为主体,推动国内国际双循环相互促进”背景下的营商环境改善对企业“脱虚向实”的影响及其内在作用机制。研究发现,地区营商环境越好,企业的金融资产投资水平越低;基于“行政审批中心设立”的准自然实验,进一步证实营商环境的改善显著降低了企业的金融资产持有水平。机制检验发现,这一效应的产生是通过降低企业经营风险和提高实体投资效益两条路径实现的。拓展性研究发现,营商环境改善在降低企业金融资产投资的同时,提高了企业对研发的投资;这些效应在中小企业和非国有企业中尤为显著。上述结果表明营商环境的改善有助于激励企业“脱虚向实”,这在政策层面意味着改善营商环境可能是解决经济“脱实向虚”和民营企业、中小企业纾困发展两大问题的一剂良药。

金融强国视域下数字金融服务实体经济高质量发展路径研究

在金融强国视域下,坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨,全面研究数字金融服务实体经济高质量发展的路径,具有重要的现实意义。数字金融作为数字技术与数据要素“双轮驱动”的金融创新,主要通过资源配置效应、普惠金融效应和技术溢出效应三条路径服务实体经济的高质量发展。数字金融在优化金融资源跨时空配置、培育和发展新质生产力、满足实体经济普惠金融需求、赋能实体企业数字化转型等方面发挥着重要作用。上述作用路径已在产业数字金融服务、大数据知识产权融资等实例中得到初步印证。但是,对照金融强国建设的战略目标和丰富内涵,其在创新监管、普惠生态、数实融合等方面仍有待提升。为此,论文提出深化金融科技创新监管试点,完善数字普惠金融生态圈,培育和引进生态圈核心企业,加强前沿数字技术的协同攻关和应用,构建数实融合的数字金融“元宇宙”等对策,以期更好地推动数字金融守正创新,加快建设金融强国,全方位服务实体经济高质量发展。

最低工资标准上升会促进上市公司金融化吗?

最低工资标准作为政府干预劳动力市场的重要手段,对保障低收入者收入和生活水平具有重要意义。本文从虚拟经济的视角理解最低工资标准制度在微观层面的传导机制,构建了最低工资标准与上市公司金融化的分析框架。研究发现:地区最低工资标准水平越高,上市公司的金融化水平越高。在经过工具变量法、GMM估计、Heckman两阶段模型等内生性测试之后,上述结论依然成立;在民营企业、劳动密集度高、成本转嫁能力弱、地区金融市场环境发达的样本中,最低工资标准对企业金融化行为的促进作用更强。本文拓展了在中国经济转型背景下“劳动与金融”领域的研究框架,对于全面认识最低工资标准政策的实施效果有着重要的意义。

平台经济金融化对实体企业“脱虚向实”的影响

平台经济金融化对实体经济“脱虚向实”的影响日益明显。文章基于沪深A股上市企业数据,采用固定效应模型、中介检验模型等方法,实证考察平台经济金融化对实体企业“脱虚向实”的影响与作用机制。研究发现:平台经济金融化对实体企业“脱虚向实”呈“倒U”型非线性影响;成本机制、资本配置机制和创新补偿机制是其重要路径;平台经济金融化对处于不同金融发展水平地区、不同所有权及不同规模的实体企业“脱虚向实”存在异质性影响。据此,提出强化“主动+被动”双向监管、充分考虑企业资本配置结构、针对性给予政策支持等建议。研究结论为深化平台经济金融化发展、加快实体企业“脱虚向实”提供有益启示。

数字金融对实体经济发展的影响机制及空间效应研究——基于制造业数据的实证分析

文章基于2011—2021年我国30个省份的面板数据,运用中介效应模型和空间计量模型实证检验了数字金融对实体经济发展的影响机制和空间溢出效应。研究结果表明:数字金融能够缓解实体经济的融资约束,推动实体经济发展;金融风险、人力资本和绿色创新是数字金融推动实体经济发展的重要机制。降低金融风险能够缓解实体经济的融资约束,提升人力资本和促进绿色创新能够提高实体经济的发展效率;数字金融对实体经济发展的影响存在显著的空间溢出效应,数字金融通过空间溢出效应对邻近地区的实体经济发展产生虹吸效应。据此提出大力发展数字金融,充分发挥数字金融降低金融风险、提升人力资本和促进绿色创新的作用,提高各省间数字金融协调度,以促进实体经济快速发展。

企业“脱实向虚”:未雨绸缪还是投机逐利——基于宏观视角的实证研究

近年来,中国实体企业“脱实向虚”的现象引起各界高度关注,已成为当前经济发展过程中面临的一项严峻挑战。企业“脱实向虚”的动机究竟是预防性储蓄还是投机逐利,国内外学者尚未达成共识。基于宏观视角,利用2009—2021年沪深A股上市公司的季度数据,通过实证分析宏观经济变化对中国实体企业金融资产配置的影响,对这一问题作出解答。结果表明:总体来看,在经济下行、货币政策紧缩以及资本市场萎靡时期,企业金融资产持有总量占比下降,且金融资产内部配置也受到影响,即稳健型金融资产占总金融资产比重上升,而风险型金融资产占比下降;分行业和地区看,这一抑制现象在东部地区和民营企业中更为显著。进一步分析发现,相较于弱融资约束企业,强融资约束企业的金融资产持有对宏观经济变化更为敏感,这表明中国实体企业金融化行为的主要动机是预防性储蓄,而非投机逐利。

制造业企业扩大金融活动能否推动企业价值增长?——基于上市制造业企业面板数据门限回归分析

利用随机最优控制理论模型,将制造业企业资产配置决策引入企业价值产生及波动机制,剖析了资本积累中产业资本与金融投资的动态配置决策及其与企业价值的非线性关系,并基于2003-2020年上市制造业企业面板数据进行了检验。理论分析论证了在资本配置中制造业企业的金融投资规模与其价值增长整体呈现的非线性关系。实证结果显示,资本积累初始分配时适度增加金融投资对企业价值增长具有正效应,且强度呈现由弱到强的变化趋势。采用动态指标刻画企业扩大金融活动的行为并进一步检验,结果表明:企业价值与动态金融资产配置存在双门限效应,企业扩大金融活动存在适度区间,其动态调整与期初资本配置及产业投资与金融投资的相关性有关。在缓慢增长阶段金融投资增长率较低时企业扩大金融投资可促进企业价值增长,在再分配时可反哺产业资本;当金融投资增长率超过拐点时,企业扩大金融活动将对企业价值产生负效应;而当金融投资增长率超过第二个门限值时,金融投资将对企业价值增长再次产生促进效应。

实体金融化的经济效应研究:区分金融化程度

当前我国实体企业“脱实向虚”的趋势没有逆转,理论界多将金融化视为同质性,忽略了实体企业非过度金融化与过度金融化之间的差异。采用2007—2020年实体上市公司的经验数据,从经济后果视角,分析过度金融化的绩效效应、风险效应和创新效应,并探讨何种类型的实体企业更偏好过度金融化。研究结果发现,相比非过度金融化,实体企业过度金融化显著抑制主业发展和企业创新,过度金融化降低了短期破产风险却加大了未来的长期破产风险。相比内部控制质量好、处于成长期的实体企业,内部控制质量差、处于成熟期和衰退期的实体企业更倾向于进行过度金融化;过度金融化的特征在不同产权性质、创新依赖性上没有实质性的差异。研究有助于厘清实体企业过度金融化带来的危害,为政府出台分类监管政策提供经验证据。

地方政府债务与实体经济风险:来自A股上市公司的经验证据

基于2010-2022年上市公司数据,探讨地方政府债务风险对实体经济财务风险的影响效应及作用机制。研究发现,地方政府债务风险上升引发区域内实体经济的财务风险上升。机制研究发现,地方政府债务风险主要通过恶化企业营商环境、增加企业融资困难程度加剧实体经济的财务风险。异质性分析表明,低市场化区域的企业、国企的财务风险受地方政府债务负面影响更为显著,其中,相比全口径债务而言,地方政府隐性债务对实体经济风险更具有放大效应。进一步研究表明,支出竞争加深了政府债务风险对实体经济的负面影响,而税收竞争缓解了政府债务风险向实体经济的外溢影响。研究结论为关联化解政府与实体经济风险、推动地方政府有序竞争和优化政企关系提供了参考。