Assessment of challenges and strategies for driving energy transitions in emerging markets:A socio-technological systems perspective

The pursuit of improved quality of life standards has significantly influenced the contemporary mining model in the 21st century.This era is witnessing an unprecedented transformation driven by pressing concerns related to sustainability,climate change,the just energy transition,dynamic operating environments,and complex social challenges.Such transitions present both opportunities and obstacles.The aim of this study is to provide an extensive literature review on energy transition to identify the challenges and strategies associated with navigating transformations in energy systems.Understanding these transformations is particularly critical in the face of the severe consequences of global warming,where an accelerated energy transition is viewed as a universal remedy.Adopting a socio-technological systems perspective,specifically through the application of Actor Network Theory(ANT),this research provides a theoretical foundation while categorising challenges into five distinct domains and outlining strategies across these different dimensions.These insights are specifically tailored for emerging market countries to effectively navigate energy transition while fostering the development of resilient societies.Furthermore,our findings highlight that energy transition encompasses more than a mere technological shift;it entails fundamental changes in various systemic socio-economic imperatives.Through focusing on the role of social structures in transitions,this study makes a significant and innovative contribution to ANT,which has historically been criticised for its limited acknowledgement of social structures.Consequently,we propose an emerging market energy transition framework,which not only addresses technological aspects,but also integrates social considerations.This framework paves the way for future research and exploration of energy transition dynamics.The outcomes of this study offer valuable insights to policymakers,researchers,and practitioners engaged in the mining industry,enabling them to comprehend the multifaceted challenges involved and providing practical strategies for effective resolution.Through incorporating the social dimension into the analysis,we enhance the understanding of the complex nature of energy system transformations,facilitating a more holistic approach towards achieving sustainable and resilient energy transitions in emerging markets and beyond.

Status, Transition, and Impact of the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration’s Trade Policy with China

China is Korea’s main trade partner in East Asia and one of its key economic and trade partners worldwide.The two countries have complementary industrial structure and a long history of trade exchanges.However,against the backdrop of a return to global trade protectionism and the politicization of international affairs with Yoon Suk-yeol coming to power,South Korea has undertaken a strong trade shift toward the United States(US),triggering a change in the pattern of economic cooperation in East Asia and challenging the regional trade structure.A review of the trade policy agenda of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration toward the US and China,along with a comparative review of Korea’s foreign trade stance under Moon Jae-in,allows for an analysis of the turnaround and characteristics of Yoon’s trade policy toward China during his tenure.The implications for global trade governance and regional security are further analyzed with an aim of finding a Nash equilibrium in trade cooperation among East Asian countries.

Decision Support System for Assessment & Selection of Optimum Mass Transit Option

Many cities in the world are aspiring to have a world-class, sustainable public transport system. However, the cost of building new mass transport systems, especially metro projects, is so high it can lead to the postponement of such projects. New mass transit modes such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Trackless Tram (TT) and suspended systems are continuously emerging. Some of the new emerging modes can deliver high capacity that can be equivalent to Light Rail Transit and Metro Systems but with significantly less cost. This research is meant to develop a comprehensive approach for comparing & assessing several aspects of different mass transit modes. Different research tools, including in-depth literature review, content, and case study analysis, multicriteria assessment, benchmarking and efficiency analysis, are used to reach conclusions for optimum mass transit options from different perspectives.

Combinations of Transportation Policies to Promote BRT Usage Using Artificial Society Model

Various transportation systems have been developed in recent years.In this study,an artificial society model is developed to examine the combination of transportation policies in urban areas.In this model,each trip maker selects the primary and terminal transportation modes.An artificial society model is applied to the southeastern region of Osaka City,Japan.The effects of introducing BRT(bus rapid transit,primary transportation)and on-demand buses(terminal transportation)are investigated.The results confirm that BRT is used by a certain number of users.An increase in the use of BRT will increase the amount of walking,thus resulting in a healthy city.However,on-demand buses are rarely used as terminal transportation.Additionally,the development of bicycle parking stations near BRT stops is shown to be effective in the northern section of the BRT route.

Myanmar＇s Political Transition and the Adjustments of U Thein Sein Administra-tion＇s Policies towards China

During 2010-2011, Myanmar started its political transition. The U Thein SeinAdministration has made obvious policy adjustments towards China after it replaced the Mili-tary government. However, such adjustments were limited, as Myanmar hasn＇t totally lean tothe West, but keeping relatively closer political contact with China. Empirical analysis showsthat political institu6on and ideology are not the key reasons leading to such adjustments？China-Myanmar relations had undergone fluctuation, osdlla6on and stability during 2011-2016, the root causes of which are the legality of political power, national security based ongeopolitics and economic development demands of＂ Myanmar people. Moreover, those threefactors remain the primary considerations of the NLD Government when it handling relationswith China.

China's Agricultural Development: Structural Contradictions and Policy Transition

The primary contradiction facing China's agricultural development has shifted from the previous undersupply to structural contradictions. This paper dissects these structural contradictions in terms of sectoral structure, product structure, organizational structure, technical structure, trade structure and spatial structure. Since reform and opening-up in 1978, China has followed a growth-oriented agricultural policy to ensure steady yield increase. Indeed, this policy has effectively increased the output of agricultural produce, safeguarded national food security, and enhanced agricultural production capabilities. However, China's agriculture is yet to become internationally competitive, increase efficiency and farmers' income, and improve the quality and safety of agricultural produce. As China's agricultural development enters into a new stage of comprehensive transition and upgrade, it is essential for China's agricultural policy to shift from the progrowth policy characterized by the dependence on chemical fertilizers and pesticides to an efficiency and quality-oriented policy that pursues green agriculture.

A Synthesis of Energy Transition Policies in Finland and China

Since 2017,Finland and China have been developing a future-oriented partnership based on mutual economic and business interests.The starting point for this work is the recognition of significant differences in size,culture,and political as well as economic systems between the two sides.The Sino-Finnish cooperation in energy transition can provide a good example of mutually beneficial partnership where countries complement each other in terms of knowhow and resources.This paper brings together the main findings from the policy study on energy transition in Finland and China.It aims to identify potential policy initiatives for expanding Sino-Finnish cooperation towards green growth.

Fiscal and Tax Policy Research on Promoting Energy Transition in China under the"Dual Carbon"Goal

The"Dual Carbon"Goal is one of the critical strategic tasks in China's new stage of development,and fiscal and tax policies play an essential role in promoting the"dual carbon target"process.Currently,China's fiscal and taxation policies to encourage the realization of the"dual carbon"target are faced with problems such as the lack of budgetary and tax regulation means and the lack of investment in the energy conservation industry.Throughout the mature experience of Britain,the United States,Japan,and other countries,although different,they all chose to levy carbon tax and tax incentives as the path to promote energy transformation.To further encourage energy conversion,China can choose to establish a carbon tax mechanism and promote and improve low-carbon preferential policies and other diversified fiscal and tax policies.

我国城市轨道交通既有线改造投融资机制研究

我国城市轨道交通现已进入从“增量扩张”向“存量优化”转型的新发展阶段,既有线改造的现实紧迫性催生了庞大的资金需求,同时对资金长期可持续提出更高要求,构建与既有线改造需求相适应和匹配的投融资机制对于保障我国城轨交通高质量发展具有重要价值。然而,既有线改造类型多样且利益主体复杂,目前实践层面缺乏统一且完整的指导规划,理论层面也亟需为投融资模式创新提供充分研究支撑。本文在总结伦敦、日本、北京、上海、深圳、天津等典型案例经验的基础上,结合项目的经济属性、周期属性、多主体特征,探究分级分类的投融资体系和实践思路,并构建财政补贴与激励协同、存量资产与新增投资互促融合的投融资机制。以期为完善既有线改造顶层设计、形成多主体协同且面向中长期的投融资机制体系提供参考与决策依据。

公交专用车道规划管理思辨及公共汽电车交通发展纾困

2023年上半年,公安部推出10项公安交管新措施,其中包括优化城市公交专用车道管理。北京、深圳、青岛、南通等地陆续发布公交专用车道相关管理措施,引发广泛讨论与关注。围绕公交专用车道管理措施背后的原因与调整的依据,公交专用车道本身的规划、管理与使用问题,以及公共汽电车交通运营困境,特邀城市交通行业专家学者和公共汽电车运营管理研究的一线工作人员以笔谈的形式交流观点。在此基础上,探索在城市存量发展阶段如何建立常态化路权变更规则和评估机制,以及公共汽电车交通纾困之路。

“平急转换”:理解基层韧性治理的新视角

随着社会流动性增强,基层治理面临易变性、不确定性、复杂性和模糊性的挑战,提升公共部门应对风险的组织韧性,是推进基层治理现代化的应有之义。通过区分基层事务的常态与急迫议题,从政策反馈视角构建“平急转换”分析框架,根据公共权力的介入程度,剖析基层韧性治理的两种模式,即规则引领的协同治理模式及权威引领的整合治理模式,并阐述两者的适用场景。基于北京市S区物业管理改革的案例研究发现:在急迫场景下,公共部门深度介入物业事务,提升了问题处置能力;随着问题趋于缓和,公共部门调整注意力分配,减少直接介入,从应急物业转向常态物业。在有限的资源条件下,韧性治理意味着决策者需要区分公共事务的轻重缓急,根据政策实施的反馈信息,把握好调整时机,在整合治理与协同治理模式之间进行灵活转换。

气候政策不确定性与传统国际能源价格的影响关系研究——基于TVP-VAR模型和小波相干性分析

基于2010年1月到2022年12月3种国际代表性传统能源煤炭、原油和天然气期货价格,以及反映气候转型风险的气候政策不确定性指数月度数据,运用TVP-VAR模型和小波相干性分析法研究了气候政策不确定性与3种传统国际能源产品价格之间的影响关系。结果表明:(1)3种代表性能源品价格与气候政策不确定性指数之间存在着相互影响的时变关系,并呈现出显著的正、负交替的差异性特征,且原油和天然气分别与另两种能源品在不同滞后期和不同时点上的表现存在差异;(2)能源品价格与气候政策不确定性指数之间相互的冲击效果均在短期和中期效果不明显,在长期效果最为明显,并且在重要气候事件节点上,冲击效果更加明显;(3)能源品价格与气候政策不确定性指数在不同时域上,中期和后期较为明显;在不同频域内,低频和中频区相干性较为明显,总体表现为能源品价格引导气候政策不确定性指数变化。

不确定性视野下的人口研究与应对

在当前全球不确定性因素不断增多的背景下,深入认识人口不确定性的性质、来源及其在人口预测与政策应对中的作用显得尤为重要。研究发现,人口不确定性是人口系统的内在规定性,且在现代社会诸多不确定性因素相互交织作用下,呈现出不断增大的趋势。虽然人口不确定性无法被完全消除,但我们可以在深化不确定性认识的基础上,采取积极的应对策略,将人口不确定性的不利影响控制在可知、可控的范围内,并充分发挥不确定性在多样性创造力上的潜力。在中国人口规模巨大的现代化进程中,充分利用技术、知识和治理的优势,可以构建具有灵活性、适应性的人口及相关政策体系,促进人口高质量发展。

新高考改革促进了大学新生适应吗?——新高考政策认同对大学新生专业适应性的影响机制

始于2014年的新一轮高考改革把构建衔接各级各类教育“立交桥”作为改革总体目标之一,致力于通过改革促进教育衔接。大学新生的适应是学生从高中到大学转换衔接的重要表征。为此,基于社会认知生涯理论构建新高考政策认同与专业适应性间的中介关系模型,探究新高考政策认同对专业适应性的影响机制,从大学新生适应的视角,来考察新高考政策对高中教育与大学教育衔接的作用,进而评估新一轮高考改革的实施成效。研究发现:在新高考政策下,经历新高考的大学新生的专业适应性情况良好;总体而言,新高考政策认同对大学新生专业适应性具有显著的正向影响,体现出政策影响的持续性,但专业优先政策认知的直接影响并不显著;专业决策自我效能、专业选择结果预期在政策认同影响专业适应性中起到中介作用,但所呈现的中介效应有所不同。由此可认为,新高考改革能促进大学新生适应,改革取得了积极成效;建议从“学生中心”理念出发,进一步培养学生自主能力,强化政策宣传,优化政策方案。

碳排放权交易能促进地区能源结构低碳转型吗?

基于2005—2019年30个省(市、区)的面板数据,文章采用双重差分模型评估碳排放权交易政策(以下简称为碳交易政策)对能源结构低碳转型的影响,并深入探究了其传导机制。研究发现,碳交易政策能够显著减少碳排放,并积极推动能源结构向低碳方向发展,其效果随时间逐渐显现。此外,碳交易政策还通过促进产业结构的调整,进一步推动了能源结构的低碳化。进一步研究表明,碳交易政策在不同试点地区的影响存在显著差异,其中北京、天津和重庆的政策效应明显,而其他试点省市的政策效应则相对较弱。

低碳转型对城市经济高质量发展的影响——来自低碳城市试点的经验证据

实施低碳城市试点政策是对低碳转型战略的具体落实,评估其执行效果可以为后续稳步推进低碳转型工作提供微观经验支撑。文章将低碳城市试点政策看作是一项准自然实验,基于2008—2020年中国276个城市的面板数据,运用多时段双重差分固定效应模型开展实证性分析。研究结果表明:低碳城市试点政策在推动城市经济高质量发展方面起到了积极的促进作用,并且该政策主要通过集聚人力资本和促进绿色技术创新来实现经济发展质量的提高;异质性检验表明,该政策对位于东部和西部区域城市的经济高质量发展具有更强的驱动效果;进一步研究发现,该政策对邻地的经济高质量发展也具有积极的空间外溢效果。

基于系统动力学模型的综合货运枢纽绿色转型机理及实施路径研究

为助力加快实现交通运输行业绿色转型,以综合货运枢纽为着眼点,探索其绿色转型和高质量发展的实施方案。首先,识别出政策、技术创新、管理效率等3个关键因素,揭示综合货运枢纽绿色转型的动态支撑机理。然后,基于对各因素的分析,将环保政策松紧系数、科技投入系数、污染物排放系数作为变量,构建包含枢纽物流供应子系统、枢纽物流需求子系统、节能减排子系统的系统动力学模型。再以四川省某综合货运枢纽为例进行模拟,验证模型的有效性和实用性。最后,从政策标准、技术组合和管理效率等3个方面提出绿色转型路径。研究结果显示:(1)表征政策因素的环保政策松紧系数对节能减排有显著正面影响,但同时限制了枢纽总产值的提升,需关注政策出台时机和松紧度;(2)表征科技研发投入的科技投入系数对节能减排有显著正面影响,既减少碳排放,又不影响枢纽总产值提升,且存在后发优势;(3)表征绿色技术设备投入效果的污染物排放系数对节能减排有显著正面影响,但提示资金投入与减排效果并不是简单的线性关系,需重点关注绿色技术设备的组合优化,做好技术与业务流程的融合;(4)表征管理效率的排放治理投资系数呈现先增后减的趋势,说明需在枢纽结构、招商、人力、资金等方面设定合理区间以确保环保投入产出效果。通过动态模拟综合货运枢纽绿色转型机理,为地方政府因地制宜出台相关政策,以及为货运枢纽运营企业采取科学有效的技术手段和管理措施提供了理论依据。

“双减”背景下小学生学习投入的潜在类别转变

采用潜在转变分析考察“双减”背景下小学生学习投入的转变类别及其影响因素。研究以347名小学生为被试,对其“双减”实施前后的学习投入水平、父母积极教养方式、师生关系和同伴关系进行了纵向追踪。结果表明:(1)小学生学习投入存在“低学习投入组”、“中等学习投入组”、“高专注低活力组”和“高学习投入组”四种不同类别;(2)“双减”政策实施后,“中等学习投入组”和“高学习投入组”稳定性较强,“低学习投入组”更易向“中等学习投入组”转变,在政策实施半年后,“高专注低活力组”学生更易向“中等学习投入组”转变,政策实施一年后,该组学生保持在“高专注低活力组”的概率较高;(3)父母积极教养方式、师生关系及同伴关系对“双减”政策前后小学生学习投入类别转变的预测作用存在差异。本研究不仅有助于深入理解小学生学习投入的发展变化及影响因素,还为“双减”政策的实施效果提供了实证证据。

基于应用场景转换的政策创新扩散:一个新的视角——以“长制”演化为例

从实践来看,政策创新扩散不仅发生在不同属地间,也可以发生在不同政策领域或应用场景间。本文提出基于应用场景转换的政策创新扩散,并通过“长制”演化过程的纵向梳理,系统探索政策创新在不同应用场景间扩散的轨迹及其在时间、空间、场景维度上的特征,同时本文还尝试考察了上级认可对政策创新跨场景扩散及其再创新的影响。研究发现:(1)场景扩散经历了策源场景的早期探索、邻近场景的零星转换、多元场景的集中扩散、其他场景的个别跟进四个阶段,并在时间维度上,呈现出与政策创新空间扩散相类似的S曲线。(2)在空间维度上,相异属地通常比相同属地更容易发生跨场景扩散,且当跨场景扩散发生在相异属地时,更容易产生对原有政策体系的突破性再创新,从而产生新的创新增长点。(3)在场景维度上,相近场景通常比较远场景更容易发生政策创新的跨场景扩散,且从顺序来看,跨场景扩散通常先发生于相近场景,再向较远场景扩散。(4)当一项政策获得上级认可时,更容易引发不同应用场景间的高频扩散。本文的概念提出及最终形成的系列观点拓展了政策创新扩散的研究空间,并为后续政策创新跨场景扩散的模式、机制以及扩散中的再创新等研究奠定了必要基础。

欧盟区域经济绿色转型:政策、路径与启示

党的二十大报告指出,推动经济社会发展绿色化、低碳化是实现高质量发展的关键环节。长期以来,欧盟在区域经济绿色转型方面积累了丰富的政策实践经验,构建了较为完整的政策体系,大致经历了三个发展阶段:第一阶段(2000—2006年)奠定了可持续发展的基础;第二阶段(2007—2018年)以具体目标为导向,建立了系统性的政策框架;第三阶段(2019年至今)以更宏大的愿景为引领,更加注重公平转型和区域协同发展。欧盟的区域绿色转型政策通过多种机制发挥作用:一是自上而下的顶层设计,为区域绿色发展指明方向;二是政策协同配套,覆盖经济和社会的不同领域和维度。三是发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,引导资源要素向绿色低碳领域流动;四是统筹效率与公平,完善公平转型保障机制。中国应借鉴欧盟成功经验,结合本国国情加以灵活运用。首先,应从国家层面统筹谋划,立足区域比较优势;其次,应发挥政府、市场、社会等多元主体的积极性,建立多方参与、协同推进的工作机制;再次,应加快绿色低碳技术创新,制定符合地方实际智慧化创新工具;最后,应在加快传统产业绿色转型升级的同时,健全公平转型机制。