Objective:To establish an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province,Iran in 2016.Methods:Time-series data were recorded from 29 201 cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in 25 cities of Fars province f...Objective:To establish an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province,Iran in 2016.Methods:Time-series data were recorded from 29 201 cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in 25 cities of Fars province from 2010 to 2015 and were used to fit and predict the cases using time-series models.Different models were compared via Akaike information criterion/Bayesian information criterion statistics,residual analysis,autocorrelation function,and partial autocorrelation function sample/model.To decide on an outbreak,four endemic scores were evaluated including mean,median,mean+ 2 standard deviations,and median+ interquartile range of the past five years.Patients whose symptoms of cutaneous leishmaniasis began from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015 were included,and there were no exclusion criteria.Results:Regarding four statistically significant endemic values,four different cutaneous leishmaniasis space-time outbreaks were detected in 2016.The accuracy of all four endemic values was statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusions:This study presents a protocol to set early warning systems regarding time and space features of cutaneous leishmaniasis in four steps:(i)to define endemic values based on which we could verify if there is an outbreak,(ii)to set different time-series models to forecast cutaneous leishmaniasis in future,(iii)to compare the forecasts with endemic values and decide on space-time outbreaks,and(iv)to set an alarm to health managers.展开更多
Based on observation data from automatic stations in Lianyungang, visibility and weather situation of dense fog leading to a traffic accident in Lianyungang on April 15, 2012 were analyzed firstly, and then changes of...Based on observation data from automatic stations in Lianyungang, visibility and weather situation of dense fog leading to a traffic accident in Lianyungang on April 15, 2012 were analyzed firstly, and then changes of meteorological factors related to fog appearance and disappearance, such as wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, were discussed. The results showed that wind speed was below 2 m/s when fog occurred, and wind velocity reduced obviously before visibility deceased, appearing a trough. Fog appeared when temperature was neady the minimum, and there was no great change in wind speed, but visibility went up gradually after temperature rose. The longer the duration of the minimum temperature, the longer the duration of the minimum visibility. Moreover, visibility would become low after temperature rose.展开更多
基金funded by Shiraz University of Medical Sciences(12439)
文摘Objective:To establish an early warning system for cutaneous leishmaniasis in Fars province,Iran in 2016.Methods:Time-series data were recorded from 29 201 cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in 25 cities of Fars province from 2010 to 2015 and were used to fit and predict the cases using time-series models.Different models were compared via Akaike information criterion/Bayesian information criterion statistics,residual analysis,autocorrelation function,and partial autocorrelation function sample/model.To decide on an outbreak,four endemic scores were evaluated including mean,median,mean+ 2 standard deviations,and median+ interquartile range of the past five years.Patients whose symptoms of cutaneous leishmaniasis began from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015 were included,and there were no exclusion criteria.Results:Regarding four statistically significant endemic values,four different cutaneous leishmaniasis space-time outbreaks were detected in 2016.The accuracy of all four endemic values was statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusions:This study presents a protocol to set early warning systems regarding time and space features of cutaneous leishmaniasis in four steps:(i)to define endemic values based on which we could verify if there is an outbreak,(ii)to set different time-series models to forecast cutaneous leishmaniasis in future,(iii)to compare the forecasts with endemic values and decide on space-time outbreaks,and(iv)to set an alarm to health managers.
基金Supported by the Meteorological Funds for Distinguished YoungScholars in Jiangsu Province,China(Q201104)Special Project for Forecasters in Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau(JSYBY201308)+2 种基金Project of Lianyungang Bureau of Science and Technology(SH1013)Project of Jiangsu Department of Science and Technology(BE2011720)Social Development Projects of Lianyungang Meteorological Bureau(LG200804,LG201205,LG201108,LG201106,LG201002)
文摘Based on observation data from automatic stations in Lianyungang, visibility and weather situation of dense fog leading to a traffic accident in Lianyungang on April 15, 2012 were analyzed firstly, and then changes of meteorological factors related to fog appearance and disappearance, such as wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, were discussed. The results showed that wind speed was below 2 m/s when fog occurred, and wind velocity reduced obviously before visibility deceased, appearing a trough. Fog appeared when temperature was neady the minimum, and there was no great change in wind speed, but visibility went up gradually after temperature rose. The longer the duration of the minimum temperature, the longer the duration of the minimum visibility. Moreover, visibility would become low after temperature rose.
