Future changes of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) in the 21st century with and without considering populationfactor are investigated based on four sets of climate change simulations over Ea...Future changes of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) in the 21st century with and without considering populationfactor are investigated based on four sets of climate change simulations over East Asia using the regional climate model version 4.4 (RegCM4.4)driven by the global models of CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR. Under global warming of 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃,and 4℃, significant decrease of HDD can be found over China without considering population factor, with greater decrease over high elevationand high latitude regions, including the Tibetan Plateau, the northern part of Northeast China, and Northwest China; while population-weightedHDD increased in areas where population will increase in the future, such as Beijing, Tianjin, parts of southern Hebei, northern Shandong andHenan provinces. Similarly, the CDD projections with and without considering population factor are largely different. Specifically, withoutconsidering population, increase of CDD were observed over most parts of China except the Tibetan Plateau where the CDD remained zerobecause of the cold climate even under global warming; while considering population factor, the future CDD decreases in South China andincreases in North China, the Sichuan Basin, and the southeastern coastal areas, which is directly related to the population changes. The differentfuture changes of HDD and CDD when considering and disregarding the effects of population show that population distribution plays animportant role in energy consumption, which should be considered in future research.展开更多
The response of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean(ETIO) to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model(CESM). A significant positive asymmetry in sea surface...The response of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean(ETIO) to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model(CESM). A significant positive asymmetry in sea surface temperature(SST) is found over the ETIO—the warming responses to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing. A mixed layer heat budget analysis is carried out to identify the mechanisms responsible for the SST asymmetry. Results show that it is mainly ascribed to the ocean dynamical processes, including vertical advections and diffusion. The net surface heat flux, on the contrary, works to reduce the asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components. The former is due to the nonlinear relationship between SST and cloud, while the latter is resulted mainly from Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. Changes in the SST skewness are also evaluated, with more enhanced negative SST skewness over the ETIO found for the cooling than heating scenarios due to the asymmetric thermocline-SST feedback.展开更多
Typhoon Hato (2017) went through a rapid intensification (RI) process before making landfall in Zhuhai,Guangdong Province, as the observational data shows. Within 24 hours, its minimum sea level pressure deepened by35...Typhoon Hato (2017) went through a rapid intensification (RI) process before making landfall in Zhuhai,Guangdong Province, as the observational data shows. Within 24 hours, its minimum sea level pressure deepened by35hPa and its maximum sustained wind speed increased by 20m s-1. According to satellite observations, Hato encountered a large area of warm water and two warm core rings before the RI process, and the average sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) induced by Hato was only around 0.73℃. Air-sea coupled simulations were implemented to investigate the specific impact of the warm water on its RI process. The results showed that the warm water played an important role by facilitating the RI process by around 20%. Sea surface temperature budget analysis showed that the SSTC induced by mixing mechanism was not obvious due to the warm water. Besides, the cold advection hardly caused any SSTC, either. Therefore, the SSTC induced by Hato was much weaker compared with that in general cases. The negative feedback between ocean and Hato was restrained and abundant heat and moisture were sufficiently supplied to Hato. The warm water helped heat flux increase by around 20%, too. Therefore, the warm water influenced the structure and the intensity of Hato. Although there might be other factors that also participated in the RI process, this study focused on air-sea interaction in tropical cyclone forecast and discussed the impact of warm water on the intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone.展开更多
Based on the definition of cool summer and warm summer, statistical characteristics of severe tropical cyclones are studied over East China Sea using 1951-1994 typhoon and temperature data. It is foundthat the frequen...Based on the definition of cool summer and warm summer, statistical characteristics of severe tropical cyclones are studied over East China Sea using 1951-1994 typhoon and temperature data. It is foundthat the frequency, tracks, intensity and moving speed 0f the tropical cyclone between c0ld summer andwarm summer were much different. The backgtound features 0f the difference were also discussed incontrast.展开更多
With rapid development of the semiconductor technology, more efficient cooling systems for electronic devices are needed. In this situation, in the present study, a loop thermosyphon type cooling system, which is comp...With rapid development of the semiconductor technology, more efficient cooling systems for electronic devices are needed. In this situation, in the present study, a loop thermosyphon type cooling system, which is composed mainly of a heating block, an evaporator and an air-cooled condenser, is investigated experimentally in order to evaluate the cooling performance. At first, it is examined that the optimum volume filling rate of this cooling system is approximately 40%. Next, four kinds of working fluids, R1234ze(E), R1234ze(Z), R134a and ethanol, are tested using a blasted heat transfer surface of the evaporator. In cases of R1234ze(E), R1234ze(Z), R134a and ethanol, the effective heat flux, at which the heating block surface temperature reaches 70°C, is 116 W/cm2, 106 W/cm2, 104 W/cm2 and 60 W/cm2, respectively. This result indicates that R1234ze(E) is the most suitable for the present cooling system. The minimum boiling thermal resistance of R1234ze(E) is 0.05 (cm2·K)/W around the effective heat flux of 100 W/cm2. Finally, four kinds of heat transfer surfaces of the evaporator, smooth, blasted, copper-plated and finned surfaces, are tested using R1234ze(E) as working fluid. The boiling thermal resistance of the blasted surface is the smallest among tested heat transfer surfaces up to 116 W/cm2 in effective heat flux. However, it increases drastically due to the appearance of dry-patch if the effective heat flux exceeds 116 W/cm2. On the other hand, in cases of copper-plated and finned surfaces, the dry-patch does not appear up to 150 W/cm2 in effective heat flux, and the boiling thermal resistances of those surfaces keep 0.1 (cm2·K)/W.展开更多
Too many climate committees, conferences, articles and publications continue to suggest a one and a half (1.5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) to two degrees (2<span style=&quo...Too many climate committees, conferences, articles and publications continue to suggest a one and a half (1.5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) to two degrees (2<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) Celsius as an achievable global limit to climate changes without establishment of any causal link to the proposed anti-warming mechanism. A comprehensive review has found instead that observationally informed projections of climate science underlying climate change offer a different outlook of five to six-degree (5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C - 6<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) increase as “most accurate” with regard to present trends, climate history and models, yielding the most likely outcome for 2100. The most causative triad for the present warming trend from 1950 to the present is identified in this paper: 1) the tripling (3×) of world population;2) the quadrupling (4×) of carbon emissions;and 3) the quintupling (5×) of the world energy consumption. This paper presents a quantitative, linear global temperature correlation to carbon dioxide levels that has great predictive value, a short temporal feedback loop, and the finding that it is also reversible. The Vostok ice core temperature and CO2 values for the past 400,000 years, with past sea level estimates have produced the sufficiently evidential “Hansen’s Graph”. Detailed analysis results in an equation for global average temperature change and an indebted, long-term sea level rise, from even a 20 ppm of CO2 change above 290 ppm, commonly taken as a baseline for levels before 1950. Comparison to the well-known 800,000 year old Dome C ice core is also performed. The best-performing climate change models and observational analysis are seen to project more warming than the average model often relied upon. World atmosphere, temperature, and sea level trends for 2100 and beyond are analyzed. A laboratory experiment proves the dramatic heat-entrapment capability of CO<sub>2</sub> compared to pure air, which yields insights into the future global atmospheric system. Policy-relevant climate remediation, including gigaton carbon capture, zero and negative emissions and positive individual action, are reviewed and updated, with recommendations.展开更多
文摘Future changes of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) in the 21st century with and without considering populationfactor are investigated based on four sets of climate change simulations over East Asia using the regional climate model version 4.4 (RegCM4.4)driven by the global models of CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC-EARTH, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR. Under global warming of 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃,and 4℃, significant decrease of HDD can be found over China without considering population factor, with greater decrease over high elevationand high latitude regions, including the Tibetan Plateau, the northern part of Northeast China, and Northwest China; while population-weightedHDD increased in areas where population will increase in the future, such as Beijing, Tianjin, parts of southern Hebei, northern Shandong andHenan provinces. Similarly, the CDD projections with and without considering population factor are largely different. Specifically, withoutconsidering population, increase of CDD were observed over most parts of China except the Tibetan Plateau where the CDD remained zerobecause of the cold climate even under global warming; while considering population factor, the future CDD decreases in South China andincreases in North China, the Sichuan Basin, and the southeastern coastal areas, which is directly related to the population changes. The differentfuture changes of HDD and CDD when considering and disregarding the effects of population show that population distribution plays animportant role in energy consumption, which should be considered in future research.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41676002the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.XDA11010302
文摘The response of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean(ETIO) to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model(CESM). A significant positive asymmetry in sea surface temperature(SST) is found over the ETIO—the warming responses to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling to the negative forcing. A mixed layer heat budget analysis is carried out to identify the mechanisms responsible for the SST asymmetry. Results show that it is mainly ascribed to the ocean dynamical processes, including vertical advections and diffusion. The net surface heat flux, on the contrary, works to reduce the asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components. The former is due to the nonlinear relationship between SST and cloud, while the latter is resulted mainly from Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. Changes in the SST skewness are also evaluated, with more enhanced negative SST skewness over the ETIO found for the cooling than heating scenarios due to the asymmetric thermocline-SST feedback.
基金National Basic R&D Project(973 Program)of China(2015CB452805)National Natural Science Foundation of China(61827901)+3 种基金National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFC1501602)Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(2019LASW-A08)Basic Research Fund of CAMS(2016Z003,2018Y013)Program of the National Satellite Meteorological Centre(FY3(02P)-MAS-1803)。
文摘Typhoon Hato (2017) went through a rapid intensification (RI) process before making landfall in Zhuhai,Guangdong Province, as the observational data shows. Within 24 hours, its minimum sea level pressure deepened by35hPa and its maximum sustained wind speed increased by 20m s-1. According to satellite observations, Hato encountered a large area of warm water and two warm core rings before the RI process, and the average sea surface temperature cooling (SSTC) induced by Hato was only around 0.73℃. Air-sea coupled simulations were implemented to investigate the specific impact of the warm water on its RI process. The results showed that the warm water played an important role by facilitating the RI process by around 20%. Sea surface temperature budget analysis showed that the SSTC induced by mixing mechanism was not obvious due to the warm water. Besides, the cold advection hardly caused any SSTC, either. Therefore, the SSTC induced by Hato was much weaker compared with that in general cases. The negative feedback between ocean and Hato was restrained and abundant heat and moisture were sufficiently supplied to Hato. The warm water helped heat flux increase by around 20%, too. Therefore, the warm water influenced the structure and the intensity of Hato. Although there might be other factors that also participated in the RI process, this study focused on air-sea interaction in tropical cyclone forecast and discussed the impact of warm water on the intensity and structure of a tropical cyclone.
文摘Based on the definition of cool summer and warm summer, statistical characteristics of severe tropical cyclones are studied over East China Sea using 1951-1994 typhoon and temperature data. It is foundthat the frequency, tracks, intensity and moving speed 0f the tropical cyclone between c0ld summer andwarm summer were much different. The backgtound features 0f the difference were also discussed incontrast.
文摘With rapid development of the semiconductor technology, more efficient cooling systems for electronic devices are needed. In this situation, in the present study, a loop thermosyphon type cooling system, which is composed mainly of a heating block, an evaporator and an air-cooled condenser, is investigated experimentally in order to evaluate the cooling performance. At first, it is examined that the optimum volume filling rate of this cooling system is approximately 40%. Next, four kinds of working fluids, R1234ze(E), R1234ze(Z), R134a and ethanol, are tested using a blasted heat transfer surface of the evaporator. In cases of R1234ze(E), R1234ze(Z), R134a and ethanol, the effective heat flux, at which the heating block surface temperature reaches 70°C, is 116 W/cm2, 106 W/cm2, 104 W/cm2 and 60 W/cm2, respectively. This result indicates that R1234ze(E) is the most suitable for the present cooling system. The minimum boiling thermal resistance of R1234ze(E) is 0.05 (cm2·K)/W around the effective heat flux of 100 W/cm2. Finally, four kinds of heat transfer surfaces of the evaporator, smooth, blasted, copper-plated and finned surfaces, are tested using R1234ze(E) as working fluid. The boiling thermal resistance of the blasted surface is the smallest among tested heat transfer surfaces up to 116 W/cm2 in effective heat flux. However, it increases drastically due to the appearance of dry-patch if the effective heat flux exceeds 116 W/cm2. On the other hand, in cases of copper-plated and finned surfaces, the dry-patch does not appear up to 150 W/cm2 in effective heat flux, and the boiling thermal resistances of those surfaces keep 0.1 (cm2·K)/W.
文摘Too many climate committees, conferences, articles and publications continue to suggest a one and a half (1.5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) to two degrees (2<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) Celsius as an achievable global limit to climate changes without establishment of any causal link to the proposed anti-warming mechanism. A comprehensive review has found instead that observationally informed projections of climate science underlying climate change offer a different outlook of five to six-degree (5<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C - 6<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C) increase as “most accurate” with regard to present trends, climate history and models, yielding the most likely outcome for 2100. The most causative triad for the present warming trend from 1950 to the present is identified in this paper: 1) the tripling (3×) of world population;2) the quadrupling (4×) of carbon emissions;and 3) the quintupling (5×) of the world energy consumption. This paper presents a quantitative, linear global temperature correlation to carbon dioxide levels that has great predictive value, a short temporal feedback loop, and the finding that it is also reversible. The Vostok ice core temperature and CO2 values for the past 400,000 years, with past sea level estimates have produced the sufficiently evidential “Hansen’s Graph”. Detailed analysis results in an equation for global average temperature change and an indebted, long-term sea level rise, from even a 20 ppm of CO2 change above 290 ppm, commonly taken as a baseline for levels before 1950. Comparison to the well-known 800,000 year old Dome C ice core is also performed. The best-performing climate change models and observational analysis are seen to project more warming than the average model often relied upon. World atmosphere, temperature, and sea level trends for 2100 and beyond are analyzed. A laboratory experiment proves the dramatic heat-entrapment capability of CO<sub>2</sub> compared to pure air, which yields insights into the future global atmospheric system. Policy-relevant climate remediation, including gigaton carbon capture, zero and negative emissions and positive individual action, are reviewed and updated, with recommendations.