The Warming and Wetting Ecological Environment Changes over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Driving Effect of the Asian Summer Monsoon

The impact of warming and wetting on the ecological environment of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(TP)under the background of climate change has been a concern of the global scientific community.In this paper,the optimized interpolation variational correction approach is adopted for the analysis of monthly high-resolution satellite precipitation products and observations from meteorological stations during the past 20 years.As a result,the corrected precipitation products can not only supplement the“blank area”of precipitation observation stations on the TP,but also improve the accuracy of the original satellite precipitation products.The precipitation over the TP shows different spatial changes in the vegetation growing season,known as the time from May to September.The precipitation in the vegetation growing season and leaf area index(LAI)in the following month show a similar change pattern,indicating a“one-month lag”response of LAI to precipitation on the TP.Further analysis illustrates the influence of water vapor transport driven by the Asian summer monsoon.Water vapor derived from trans-equatorial air flows across the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea is strengthened,leading to the increase of precipitation in the central and northern TP,where the trend of warming and wetting and the increase of vegetation tend to be more obvious.By contrast,as a result of the weakening trend of water vapor transport in the middle and low levels in southern TP,the precipitation decreases,and the LAI shows a downtrend,which inhibits the warming and wetting ecological environment in this area.

Discussion of the“warming and wetting”trend and its future variation in the drylands of Northwest China under global warming

Since Shi et al.proposed that the climate in the drylands of Northwest China experienced a significant transition from a“warming and drying”trend to a“warming and wetting”trend in the 1980s,researchers have conducted numerous studies on the variations in precipitation and humidity in the region and even in arid Central Asia.In particular,the process of the“warming and wetting”trend by using obtained measurement data received much attention.However,there remain uncertainties about whether the“warming and wetting”trend has paused and what its future variations may be.In this study,we examined the spatiotemporal variations in temperature,precipitation,the aridity index(AI),vegetation,and runoff during 1950-2019.The results showed that the climate in the drylands of Northwest China and the northern Tibetan Plateau is persistently warming and wetting since the 1980s,with an acceleration since the 1990s.The precipitation/humidity variations in North China,which are mainly influenced by summer monsoon,are generally opposite to those in the drylands of Northwest China.This reverse change is mainly controlled by an anomalous anticyclone over Mongolia,which leads to an anomalous easterly wind,reduced water vapor output,and increased precipitation in the drylands of Northwest China.While it also causes an anomalous descending motion,increased water vapor divergence,and decreased precipitation in North China.Precipitation is the primary controlling factor of humidity,which ultimately forms the spatiotemporal pattern of the“westerlies-dominated climatic regime”of antiphase precipitation/humidity variations between the drylands of Northwest China and monsoonal region of North China.The primary reasons behind the debate of the“warming and wetting”trend in Northwest China were due to the use of different time series lengths,regional ranges,and humidity indices in previous analyses.Since the EC-Earth3 has a good performance for simulating precipitation and humidity in Northwest and North China.By using its simulated results,we found a wetting trend in the drylands of Northwest China under low emission scenarios,but the climate will gradually transition to a“warming and drying”trend as emissions increase.This study suggests that moderate warming can be beneficial for improving the ecological environment in the drylands of Northwest China,while precipitation and humidity in monsoon-dominated North China will persistently increase under scenarios of increased emissions.

Evidence for a recent warming and wetting in the source area of the Yellow River （SAYR） and its hydrological impacts

Climate change investigation at a watershed-scale plays a significant role in re- vealing the historical evolution and future trend of the runoff variation in watershed. This study examines the multisource hydrological and meteorological variables over the source area of the Yellow River （SAYR） from 1961 to 2,012 and the future climate scenarios in the region during 2006-2100 based on the CMIP5 projection data. It recognizes the significant charac-teristics of the recent climate change in the SAYR and predicts the change trend of future flow in the region. It is found that （1） The climate in the SAYR has experienced a significant warm-wet change since the early 2000s, which is very different from the antecedent warm-dry trend since the late 1980s; （2） The warm-wet trend in the northwestern SAYR （the headwater area of the Yellow River （HAYR）, is more obvious than that in the whole SAYR; （3） With pre- cipitation increase, the runoff in the region also experienced an increasing process since 2006. The runoff variations in the region are sensitive to the changes of precipitation, PET and maximum air temperature, but not very sensitive to changes in mean and minimum air temperatures; （4） Based on the CMIP5 projection data, the warm-wet climate trend in SAYR are likely to continue until 2049 if considering three different （i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5） greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and the precipitation in SAYR will not be less than the current level before 2100; however, it is estimated that the recent flow increase in the SAYR is likely to be the decadal change and it will at most continue until the 2020s; （5） The inter-annual variations of the East Asian winter monsoon are found to be closely related to the variations of annual precipitation in the region. Meanwhile, the increased precipitation as well as the increase of potential evapotranspiration （PET） being far less than that of precipitation in the recent period are the main climate causes for the flow increase in the region.

High-elevation landforms are experiencing more remarkable wetting trends in arid Central Asia

Since the 1980s,a warming and weting trend in arid Central Asia(ACA)has been widely reported.However,no consistent knowledge has been presented about whether warming and weting trends are evenly distributed throughout ACA or whether there are noticeable topographical differences.We combined the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset and data from Google Earth Engine to analyze the topographic differences of ACA from 1981 to 2020.The findings indicate that significant(p<0.05)warming has a broader geographic scale in ACA and that warming rate of low-elevation landforms(high plains and hlls)is higher than that of high-elevation landforms(mountains and tablelands).However,the weting trend does not fllow this patern.By contrast,high-elevation landforms have a higher wetting rate than low-elevation landforms and are the main areas of wetting.Additionaly,low-elevation landforms continue to maintain the warming and drying trends.Notably,the wetting trend of high-elevation landforms is amplified with altitude.Meanwhile,the wetting trend is negatively related to the warming trend(p<0.01)across the entire elevation range.Collectively,the findings provide new insights into the current research hotspot of warming-wetting"trend in ACA and highlight the differences in the responses of different landforms to climate change.