System Dynamics Approach to Urban Water Demand Forecasting—A Case Study of Tianjin

A system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of urban water resources system, which was characterized by multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions among sys-tem elements. As an example, Tianjin water resources system dynamic model was set up to forecast water resources demand of the planning years. The practical verification showed that the relative error was lower than 10%. Fur-thermore, through the comparison and analysis of the simulation results under different development modes pre-sented in this paper, the forecasting results of the water resources demand of Tianjin was achieved based on sustain-able utilization strategy of water resources.

A hybrid Wavelet-CNN-LSTM deep learning model for short-term urban water demand forecasting

Short-term water demand forecasting provides guidance on real-time water allocation in the water supply network, which help water utilities reduce energy cost and avoid potential accidents. Although a variety of methods have been proposed to improve forecast accuracy, it is still difficult for statistical models to learn the periodic patterns due to the chaotic nature of the water demand data with high temporal resolution. To overcome this issue from the perspective of improving data predictability, we proposed a hybrid Wavelet-CNN-LSTM model, that combines time-frequency decomposition characteristics of Wavelet Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA) and implement it into an advanced deep learning model, CNN-LSTM. Four models - ANN, Conv1D, LSTM, GRUN - are used to compare with Wavelet-CNN-LSTM, and the results show that Wavelet-CNN-LSTM outperforms the other models both in single-step and multi-steps prediction. Besides, further mechanistic analysis revealed that MRA produce significant effect on improving model accuracy.

Water demand forecasting of Beijing using the Time Series Forecasting Method

It is essential to establish the water resources exploitation and utiliz~~tion planning, which is mainly based on recognizing and forecasting the water consumed structure rationally and scientifically. During the past 30 years （1980-2009）, mean annual precipil：ation and total water resource of Beijing have decreased by 6.89% and 31.37% compared with those per- ennial values, respectively, while total water consumption during the same [：period reached pinnacle historically. Accordingly, it is of great significance for the harmony between socio-economic development and environmental development. Based on analyzing total water consumption, agricultural, industrial, domestic and environmental water consumption, and evolution of water consumed structure, further driving forces of evolution of total water consumption and water consumed structure are revealed systematically. Prediction and dis- cussion are achieved for evolution of total water consumption, water consumed structure, and supply-demand situation of water resource in the near future of Beijing using Time Series Forecasting Method. The purpose of the endeavor of this paper is to provide scientific basis for the harmonious development between socio-economy and water resources, for the es- tablishment of rational strategic planning of water resources, and for the social sustainable development of Beijing with scientific bases.

Synthetic Reconstruction of Water Demand Time Series for Real Time Demand Forecasting

The forecasting of the demand applied to water supply systems has been an important tool to realize time control. The use of the time series to do the forecasting of the demand is the main way that has been used by researchers. By this way, the need of a complete time demand series increases. This work presents two ways to reconstruct the water demand time series synthetically, using the Average Reconstruction Method and Fourier Method. Both the methods were considered interesting to do the synthetic reconstruction and able to complete the time series, but the Fourier Method showed better results and a better fitness to approximation of the water consumption pattern.

STUDY ON OPTIMAL CONTROL OF MUNICIPAL WATER DISTRIBUTION NETWORK

A systematic investigation is made on the problems which are related to the optimal control of the municipal water distribution network.A mathematical model of forecasting the water short term demand is proposed using the time series trigonometric function analysis method;the service discharge based macroscopic model of network performance is established using the network structuring method;a relatively satisfactory mathematical model for the optimal control of water distribution network is put forward in view of security and economy,and solved by the constrained mixed discrete variable complex arithmetic.The model is applied in many examples and the results are satisfactory.

Designing an Intelligent Control Philosophy in Reservoirs of Water Transfer Networks in Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System Stations

In this paper, a hybrid neural-genetic fuzzy system is proposed to control the flow and height of water in the reservoirs of water transfer networks. These controls will avoid probable water wastes in the reservoirs and pressure drops in water distribution networks. The proposed approach combines the artificial neural network, genetic algorithm, and fuzzy inference system to improve the performance of the supervisory control and data acquisition stations through a new control philosophy for instruments and control valves in the reservoirs of the water transfer networks. First, a multi-core artificial neural network model, including a multi-layer perceptron and radial based function, is proposed to forecast the daily consumption of the water in a reservoir. A genetic algorithm is proposed to optimize the parameters of the artificial neural networks. Then, the online height of water in the reservoir and the output of artificial neural networks are used as inputs of a fuzzy inference system to estimate the flow rate of the reservoir inlet. Finally, the estimated inlet flow is translated into the input valve position using a transform control unit supported by a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model. The proposed approach is applied in the Tehran water transfer network. The results of this study show that the usage of the proposed approach significantly reduces the deviation of the reservoir height from the desired levels.