Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Variation Characteristics of Water Environmental Capacity in Poyang Lake under the Scheduling of Three Gorges Reservoir

[Objective] The aim was to study the variation characteristics of water environmental capacity in Poyang Lake under the scheduling of Three Gorges Reservoir.[Method] Choosing chemical oxygen demand (COD),total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) as the control indexes of pollutants in Poyang Lake,the variation characteristics of water environmental capacity in Poyang Lake under the scheduling of Three Gorges Reservoir were analyzed based on the water environment mathematical models of organic compounds and nutrients.[Result] After the operation of Three Gorges Project,high water level in Poyang Lake lasted for a long time in flood season when Three Gorges Reservoir increased discharge volume,while water level went down obviously with the accelerating of recession flow when reservoir decreased discharge volume to store water,so Three Gorges Project had obvious effects on the hydrological regime of Poyang Lake.In 2009,when Three Gorges Reservoir stored water,the water environmental capacity of COD,TN and TP in Poyang Lake in October decreased by 14.0%,15.4% and 15.4% compared with those before operation,while they increased by 3.64%,4.88% and 4.88% in August when reservoir discharged water to prevent flood.[Conclusion] The study could provide scientific foundation for the water pollution control and water environment management of lakes.

Estimation of Water Environmental Capacity Considering Hydraulic Project Operation in the Xiangyang Reach of the Han River, Central China

Using the Xiangyang Reach of the Han River as an example, this paper evaluates the changes of water environmental capacity after the implementation of Cuijiaying Hydro-junction project. The allowable pollutant loads entering the Xiangyang Reach were estimated using two-dimensional steady state water quality model with different data sets. The water environmental capacity has declined in the reservoir area of the Cuijiaying Hydro-junction project during the low-flow period;it is appearing to increase slightly in the upper and lower stream of this reservoir. However, the state of flow may turn into the state of reservoirs flow in the reservoir area, and the changes of hydrological regime may cause the water flow and the nutrient contents suitable for the occurrence of ecological environment problems.

The concept, connotation and method of representation of watershed water environment carrying capacity （WWECC）

Based on the relationship between water environment system and human society, water environment carrying capacity （WECC） probes into supporting ability of complex water environment system to the human society. Recent years, due to the shortage of water resources and serious water pollution in several watersheds in China, the research of watershed water environment carrying capacity （WWECC） becomes very important. The conception, connotation and method of representation of WWECC are discussed deeply in this paper. It shows that WWECC is a kind of index that instructs whether the water environment system in watershed can continue to support the development of social economy and ecology, it is dimensionless number.

Study on Water Environmental Capacity of Shennongjia

Water environmental capacity is the important basis to set local and professional emission standards for waters, and is also the work basis of ecological planning. Firstly, the general information of river system in Shennongjia was introduced. Then, the concept and general model of water environmental capacity were elaborated. Finally, we used the analytical solution to estimate the water environmental capacities of COD and NH3-N in Shennongjia, and concrete measures for water environmental protection were put forward.

Flow Calculation of Water Environmental Capacity Controlling Units in a Small Watershed Based on GIS Technology

[Objeetive] We aimed to calculate the flow of controlling units in a small watershed based on GIS technology. [Method] Hydrologic analysis on Qingyi River was conducted by using ArcGIS9.0, and the controlling units with response of water-land were divided according to the riv- er monitoring sections of Xuchang City; considering the wastewater entering the river and the water from its upper reach, the runoff of controlling sections in the driest month （ with guarantee rate of 90% ） was calculated by means of isoline, runoff coefficient and hydrologic analogy method, and the calculated value of Gaocun Bridge section in Linying was contrasted with the measured value in 2010. [Result] The results showed that the cal- culated value and measured value of Gaecun Bridge section in Linying in the driest month of 2010 were 6.03 and 5.93 m^3/s respectively, with relative error of 1.69%, which revealed that the result of calculated runoff was reasonable. [ Conclusion] The way to divide controlling units was reason- able, and the calculation result of runoff was accurate and can meet the precision of water environment capacity calculation.

Study on urban water environmental support capacity

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ON REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION OF RIVER WATER ENVIRONMENT CAPACITY AND STRATEGIES TO CONTROL WATER ENVIRONMENT POLLUTION IN CHINA

China has large population and wide territory, the natural conditions of different regions are complicated. water resources are distributed unbalanced.economic developing states are unequal. For these reasons the variation of concerned water environment capacity has obvious character of regional differentiation. In this paper, from the economic development point of view, the regular pattern of regional differentiation of China's water environment capacity resources is analyzed. the concept of contradictory degree between water environment capacity and economic development is introduced, based on them, rivers in China are divided into three regions, and corresponding strategies to control water pollution are advanced. The aims are to use river water environment capacity resources effectively. to control pollution and to improve environmental quality.

Carrying Capacity of Water Leisure Environment in Eco-cities-A Case Study of Ancient Canal Scenic Area in Yangzhou City

Water leisure tourism is an emerging theme in urban planning, and its planning mode and operation level directly influence the eco-cycle degree of urban development. Tourism activities inevitably impact environmental quality of urban water spaces, and the research on the environmental carrying capacity of such spaces has also become an important prerequisite of tourism planning. Taking the Yangzhou Ancient Canal Scenic Area for an example, the paper constructed the estimated indicators of water leisure tourism environmental carrying capacity on the basis of analyzing scenic geographical resources and tourism economic conditions, and calculated the scenic area's water leisure tourism environmental integrated carrying capacity by the method of barrel extrapolation, providing a reasonable foundation for evaluating the planning conditions in the eco-cycle urban water leisure tourism planning.

Carrying capacity of water environment in public tourism resources based on matter-element model

When water environmental carrying capacity of public resource tourist attraction is studied, the two action subjects of tourists and local residents should be discussed, and comprehensive consideration must be given to the influence of these two on water environment. On the basis of water resource carrying capacity and water quality carrying capacity, water environmental carrying capacity index of public resource tourist attraction was constructed, the model for the water environmental carrying capacity of public resource tourist attraction was established on the basis of matter-element model and analytical hierarchy process. By applying this method, water environmental carrying capacity situation of a certain public resource tourist attraction can be gained, moreover, situations about several aspects of water environmental carrying capacity can be evaluated.

Comprehensive Assessment of Water Environment Carrying Capacity of Yunnan Province

Based on the concept and connotation of water environment carrying capacity, taking Yunnan Province as a case, this paper built water environment carrying capacity evaluation system from the perspectives of water resources, water environment carrying capacity and socio-economic development, and applied the index evaluation model to analyze the trends of water environment carrying capacity in Yunnan from 2006 to 2014. The results showed that, during those years, the evaluation value of water environment carrying capacity ranged from 0.23 to 0.46 in Yunnan Province.The minimum value was 0.23 in 2013, the maximum value was 0.46 in 2010. From 2006 to 2014, the evaluation value of water environment carrying capacity was less than 0.5 in general, and the water environment in a fragile state on the whole.

Safety Evaluation of Water Environment Carrying Capacity of Five Cities in Ningxia Based on Ecological Footprint of Water Resources

[Objectives]To make safety evaluation of water environment carrying capacity of five cities in Ningxia based on ecological footprint of water resources.[Methods]With the help of the grey relational model,15 indicators were selected from the natural,economic,and social aspects,and the most influential factors in the three fields were selected.Based on the concept of ecological priority,the water resources carrying capacity of the five cities in Ningxia from 2010 to 2019 was calculated with the help of the water resources ecological footprint model.Then,the indicators of the water resources ecological footprint model were coupled with the existing indicators to establish a comprehensive evaluation indicator system.Finally,the changes of the water environment carrying capacity of the five cities in Ningxia were analyzed with the help of the principal component analysis(PCA).[Results]The ecological pressure of water resources and the ecological deficit of water resources in the five cities were relatively large.Specifically,Yinchuan City had the most obvious deficit of water resources but good carrying capacity;Zhongwei City had a large ecological deficit of water resources,poor carrying capacity,and the largest ecological pressure index of water resources;Guyuan City had low water resources ecological deficit,water resources ecological carrying capacity and water resources ecological pressure index.[Conclusions]Through the analysis of the coupling indicator system,it can be seen that the water environment carrying capacity of the five cities is in an upward trend,indicating that the water environment in each region tends to become better.

Water Environment Carrying Capacity of New Zhengdong District in Zhengzhou City

Taking sections of the Dongfeng Canal, the Xionger River and the Wei River in New Zhengdong District for example, this paper applied water environment capacity to analyze the carrying capacity of surface water environment in the east development zone of the city. The analysis shows that carrying capacity of surface water environment in the study area is not good, carrying capacity of 3 studied waters for TP, BOD_5 and COD is approaching to the limit. New Zhengdong District, in terms of industrial structure, should promote the projects with less water consumption, less or no discharge of wastewater, and also should enhance the sewage treatment, improve recycling rate of the reclaimed water, and reduce the negative impact of sewage and pollutant discharge on environment.

Water environmental planning for new zone of economic-technological development in China

This paper analyzes the characteristics of water environmental planning in New Zone for EconomicTechnological Development (NZETD) in China and presents the task, procedure and method of the planning study Based on these analyses, the concept of Water Environmental Support Capacity (WESC) is put forward and the corresponding quantitative method is proposed to achieve the objective of coordinating the relationship between water environment and economic development As a case study, a comprehensive analysis and integrated water pollution control planning are made for the New Zone of EconomicTechnological Development in Benxi City in China Based on the costbenefit analysis and feasibility study of the planning alternatives, the comprehensive indexes of WESC are calculated and applied to evaluate the water pollution control planning alternatives

System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application

A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity （WRCC） was set up using the method of system dynamics （SD）. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted： （1） continuity of existing water utilization, （2） water conservation/saving, and （3） water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.

Industrial and Agricultural Effects on Water Environment and Its Optimization in Heavily Polluted Area in Taihu Lake Basin, China

The deteriorating water quality in the Taihu Lake Basin has attracted widespread attention for many years, and is correlated with a sharp increase in the quantity of pollutant discharge such as agricultural fertilizers and industrial wastewater. In this study, several factors were selected for evaluating and regionalizing the water environmental capacity by ArcG1S spatial analysis, including geomor- phologic characteristics, water quality goals, water body accessibility, water-dilution channels, and current water quality. Then, the spa- tial optimization of agriculture and industry was adjusted through overlay analysis, based on the balance between industrial space and water environmental capacity. The results show that the water environmental capacity gradually decreases from the west to the east, in contrast, the pollution caused by industrial and agricultural clustering is distributes along Taihu Lake, Gehu Lake and urban districts. The analysis of the agricultural space focuses on optimizing key protected areas of the Taihu Lake Basin, and the shores of Gehu Lake, optimally adjusting the second protected areas of the Taihu Lake Basin, and generally adjusting the urban areas of Changzhou and Wuxi cities. The analysis of industrial space focuses on optimizing the downtowns of Changzhou and Wuxi cities, optimally adjusting key protected areas and second protected areas of the Taihu Lake Basin, and generally adjusting the south and southwest of Gehu Lake. Lastly, some schemes of industrial and agricultural layouts and policies for the direction of industrial and agricultural development were proposed, reflecting a correlation between industry and agriculture and the water environment.

Impact of hydroelectric projects on river environment: Analysis of water quality changes in Ningxia Reach of Yellow River

In this paper, the relationship between hydroelectric projects and the river environment is analyzed. Recently, the large-scale regulation of runoff by large hydroelectric projects in the Ningxia Reach of the Yellow River has altered natural runoff processes, causing an increase in the probability of low discharge and an overall adjustment of riverbed evolution and river characteristics. During low-flow years, the combined effects of these two changes can weaken the self-purification capacity and reduce the water environmental capacity of the river. This is one of the main reasons for the recent decrease of water quality in the Ningxia Reach. This research shows that it is necessary to implement river training projects to maintain stable flow paths, not only for adjusting river regimes and for flood control, but also for increasing the self-purification capacity and the water environmental capacity of the river. Methods and proposals for coordinating the operation of hydroelectric projects with the protection of the river environment are presented in the interest of promoting sustainable development.

Assessment of Geological Security and Integrated Assessment Geo-environmental Suitability in Worst-hit Areas in Wenchuan Quake

The Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and geo-hazards triggered by the earthquake caused large injuries and deaths as well as destructive damage for infrastructures like construction, traffic and electricity. It is urgent to select relatively secure areas for townships and cities constructed in high mountainous regions with high magnitude earthquakes. This paper presents the basic thoughts, evaluation indices and evaluation methods of geological security evaluation, water and land resources security demonstration and integrated assessments of geo-environmental suitability for reconstruction in alp and ravine with high magnitude earthquakes, which are applied in the worst-hit areas （12 counties）. The integrated assessment shows that： （1） located in the Longmenshan fault zone, the evaluated area is of poor regional crust stability, in which the unstable and second unstable areas account for 79% of the total; （2） the geo-hazards susceptibility is high in the evaluation area. The spots of geo-hazards triggered by earthquake are mainly distributed along the active fault zone with higher distribution in the moderate and high mountains area, in which the areas of high and moderate susceptibility zoning accounts for 40.1% of the total; （3） geological security is poor in the evaluated area, in which the area of the unsuitable construction occupies 73.1%, whereas in the suitable construction area, the areas of geological security, second security and insecurity zoning account for 8.3 %, 9.3% and 9.3 % of the evaluated area respectively; （4） geo-environmentai suitability is poor in the evaluated area, in which the areas of suitability and basic suitability zoning account for 3.5% and 7.3% of the whole evaluation area.

Parameter determination to calculate water environmental capacity in Zhangweinan Canal Sub-basin in China

Zhangweinan canal sub-basin （ZWN） has the most serious water resource shortage and water pollution problems in north of China. To calculate the water environmental capacity in ZWN, determination methods for design flow rates and degradation coefficients were discussed in this study. Results showed that 90% and 50% hydrological guarantee flow rates were suitable to be the design flow rates for rainy and dry seasons, respectively. Degradation coefficients of CODMn and NH3-N were 0.25 day^-1 and 0.15 day^-1 for branch streams and 0.5 day^-1 and 0.25 day^-1 for mainstreams, respectively in ZWN. With one-dimensional water quality simulation model, water environmental capacities were calculated to be 82,139 tons/yr for CODMn and 2394 tons/yr for NH3-N in ZWN.

Zoning assessment of water environmental supporting capacity for socioeconomic development in the Huaihe River Basin, China

There have been substantial conflicts in the human-water relationship in the Huaihe River Basin （HRB）. To achieve sustainable economic development without degrading the water environment in the HRB, we develop a three-dimensional water environmental sup- porting capacity （WESC） model based on water environmental carrying capacity （WECC）, water environmental pressure （WEP）, and water pollution prevention and control capacity （WPPC）. Geographic information systems spatial analysis with the analytical hierarchy process method and dynamic weighted summation is applied. Several proposals for suitable locations for industry and environmental protection strategies for water were presented. The following results were obtained. （1） The spatial differences in WECC are substantial; areas with high-value WECC zones are mainly located along the main stream of the Huaihe River on the south side. WEP is generally high, with an overall low level of pollution prevention and control in the whole HRB. WPPC and WEP show high spatial overlapping due to the fact that areas with higher environmental pollution usually have high level of economic development, and thus have a strong capacity for pollution control. （2） Overall, WESC is moderate in the HRB. In particular, areas with a high WESC value only account for 56.24% of the HRB in 2010 Distinct differences in WESC also exist between areas located in the south compared with in the north of the basin, and areas alongside the downstream region compared with alongside the upstream and midstream regions. （3） Consequently, according to the guidance for indus- try zoning in the HRB, the areas in the south and alongside the downstream and sub-streams with a low WEP value and high WECC and WPPC, traditional industries should be developed based on strict environmental access and pollution emission standards. While for the areas along the midstream of the HRB and along the whole Yishusi River Basin, which have a high WEP value, industrial restructuring and technological upgrading are suggested. Action should be taken to limit development and protect the environment in the upstream region of the basin which is a key source of drinking water, in the eastern route along the line of the South-toNorth Water Diversion Project, and in the ecologically fragile region alongside the basin. This will ensure good environmental functionality including subsistent provision of clean water, while at the same time satisfying the urgent need to adjust, transform, and upgrade the industrial structure.