Application of Time Serial Model in Water Quality Predicting

Water resources are an indispensable and valuable resource for human survival and development.Water quality predicting plays an important role in the protection and development of water resources.It is difficult to predictwater quality due to its random and trend changes.Therefore,amethod of predicting water quality which combines Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)and clusteringmodelwas proposed in this paper.By taking thewater qualitymonitoring data of a certain river basin as a sample,thewater quality Total Phosphorus(TP)index was selected as the prediction object.Firstly,the sample data was cleaned,stationary analyzed,and white noise analyzed.Secondly,the appropriate parameters were selected according to the Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC)principle,and the trend component characteristics were obtained by using ARIMA to conduct water quality predicting.Thirdly,the relationship between the precipitation and the TP index in themonitoring water field was analyzed by the K-means clusteringmethod,and the random incremental characteristics of precipitation on water quality changes were calculated.Finally,by combining with the trend component characteristics and the random incremental characteristics,the water quality prediction results were calculated.Compared with the ARIMA water quality prediction method,experiments showed that the proposed method has higher accuracy,and its Mean Absolute Error(MAE),Mean Square Error(MSE),and Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE)were respectively reduced by 44.6%,56.8%,and 45.8%.

Artificial Intelligence in Internet of Things System for Predicting Water Quality in Aquaculture Fishponds

Aquaculture has long been a critical economic sector in Taiwan.Since a key factor in aquaculture production efficiency is water quality,an effective means of monitoring the dissolved oxygen content(DOC)of aquaculture water is essential.This study developed an internet of things system for monitoring DOC by collecting essential data related to water quality.Artificial intelligence technology was used to construct a water quality prediction model for use in a complete system for managing water quality.Since aquaculture water quality depends on a continuous interaction among multiple factors,and the current state is correlated with the previous state,a model with time series is required.Therefore,this study used recurrent neural networks(RNNs)with sequential characteristics.Commonly used RNNs such as long short-term memory model and gated recurrent unit(GRU)model have a memory function that appropriately retains previous results for use in processing current results.To construct a suitable RNN model,this study used Taguchi method to optimize hyperparameters(including hidden layer neuron count,iteration count,batch size,learning rate,and dropout ratio).Additionally,optimization performance was also compared between 5-layer and 7-layer network architectures.The experimental results revealed that the 7-layer GRU was more suitable for the application considered in this study.The values obtained in tests of prediction performance were mean absolute percentage error of 3.7134%,root mean square error of 0.0638,and R-value of 0.9984.Therefore,thewater qualitymanagement system developed in this study can quickly provide practitioners with highly accurate data,which is essential for a timely response to water quality issues.This study was performed in collaboration with the Taiwan Industrial Technology Research Institute and a local fishery company.Practical application of the system by the fishery company confirmed that the monitoring system is effective in improving the survival rate of farmed fish by providing data needed to maintain DOC higher than the standard value.

Three-Dimensional Tidal Model and Its Application to Numerical Simulation of Water Quality in Coastal Waters

- The turbulence mechanism plays an important part in the mixing process and momentum transfer of turbulence. A three-dimensional Prandtl mixing length tidal model has been developed to simulate tidal flows and water quality. The eddy viscosities and diffusivities are computed from the Prandtl mixing length model. In order to model the water quality of an estuary or coastal area many interdependent processes need to be simulated. These may be conveniently separated into three main groups: transport and mixing processes, biochemical interaction of water quality variables and the utilization and re-cycling of nutrients by living matter. The model simulates full oxygen and nutrient balance, primary productivity and the transport, reaction mechanism and fate of pollutants over tidal time-scales. The model is applied to numerical simulation of tidal flows and water quality in Dalian Bay. The model has been calibrated against a limited data set of historical water quality observations and in general

Application of Artificial Neural Networks for the Prediction of Water Quality Variables in the Nile Delta

The quality of a water body is usually characterized by sets of physical, chemical, and biological parameters, which are mutually interrelated. Since August 1997, monthly records of 33 parameters, monitored at 102 locations on the Nile Delta drainage system, are stored in a National Database operated by the Drainage Research Institute (DRI). Correlation patterns may be found between water quantity and water quality parameters at the same location, or among water quality parameters within a monitoring location or among locations. Serial correlation is also detected in water quality variables. Through the investigation of the level of information redundancy, assessment and redesign of water quality monitoring network aim to improve the overall network efficiency and cost effectiveness. In this study, the potential of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on simulating interrelation between water quality parameters is examined. Several ANN inputs, structures and training possibilities are assessed and the best ANN model and modeling procedure is selected. The prediction capabilities of the ANN are compared with the linear regression models with autocorrelated residuals, usually used for this purpose. It is concluded that the ANN models are more accurate than the linear regression models having the same inputs and output.

Three-Dimensional Water-Quality Simulation for River Based on VOF Method

In the present study, considering the transport and transformation processes of variables, a threedimensional water quality model for the river system was established, which coupled the volume of fluid(VOF) method with the k-ε turbulence mathematical model. Then, the water hydrodynamic characteristics and transport processes for BOD_5, NH_(3^-)N and TP were analyzed. The results showed that the water surface of convex bank was a little lower than that of concave bank due to the centrifugal force near the bend, and most concentrations were inferior to the type Ⅴ standard indexes of surface water environmental quality. The model validation indicated that the errors between the simulated and monitored values were comparatively small, satisfying the application demands and providing scientific basis and decision support for the restoration and protection of water quality.

Development and application of a GIS-based artificial neural network system for water quality prediction: a case study at the Lake Champlain area

Artificial Neural Network(ANN)models have been extensively applied in the prediction of water resource variables,and Geographical Information System(GIS)includes powerful functions to visualize spatial data.In order to provide an efficient tool for environmental assessment and management that combines the advantages of these two modules,a GIS-based ANN water quality prediction system was developed in the present study.The ANN module and ArcGIS Engine module,along with a dynamic database,were imbedded in the system,which integrates water quality prediction via the ANN model and spatial presentation of the model results.The structure of the ANN model could be modified through the graphical user interface to optimize the model performance.The developed system was applied to a real case study for the prediction of the total phosphorus concentration in the Lake Champlain area.The prediction results were verified with the monitoring data,and the performance of the developed model was further evaluated through graphical techniques and quantitative statistical methods.Overall,the developed system provided satisfactory prediction results,and spatial distribution maps of the predicted results were obtained,which coincided with the monitored values.The developed GIS-based ANN water quality prediction system could serve as an efficient tool for engineers and decision makers.

Combined Method of Chaotic Theory and Neural Networks for Water Quality Prediction

Chaos theory was introduced for water quality, prediction, and the model of water quality prediction was established by combining phase space reconstruction theory and BP neural network forecasting method. Through the phase space reconstruction, the one-dimensional water quality time series were mapped to be multi-dimensional sequence, which enriched the spatial information of water quality change and expanded mapping region of training samples of BP neural network. Established model of combining chaos theory and BP neural network were applied to forecast turbidity time series of a certain reservoir. Contrast to BP neural network method, the relative error and the mean squared error of the combined method had all varying degrees of lower. Results indicated the neural network model with chaos theory had the higher prediction accuracy, at the same time, it had better fault-tolerant capability and generalization performance.

Correlation Analysis of Turbidity and Total Phosphorus in Water Quality Monitoring Data

At present,water pollution has become an important factor affecting and restricting national and regional economic development.Total phosphorus is one of the main sources of water pollution and eutrophication,so the prediction of total phosphorus in water quality has good research significance.This paper selects the total phosphorus and turbidity data for analysis by crawling the data of the water quality monitoring platform.By constructing the attribute object mapping relationship,the correlation between the two indicators was analyzed and used to predict the future data.Firstly,the monthly mean and daily mean concentrations of total phosphorus and turbidity outliers were calculated after cleaning,and the correlation between them was analyzed.Secondly,the correlation coefficients of different times and frequencies were used to predict the values for the next five days,and the data trend was predicted by python visualization.Finally,the real value was compared with the predicted value data,and the results showed that the correlation between total phosphorus and turbidity was useful in predicting the water quality.

Water quality soft-sensor prediction in anaerobic process using deep neural network optimized by Tree-structured Parzen Estimator

Anaerobic process is regarded as a green and sustainable process due to low carbon emission and minimal energy consumption in wastewater treatment plants(WWTPs).However,some water quality metrics are not measurable in real time,thus influencing the judgment of the operators and may increase energy consumption and carbon emission.One of the solutions is using a soft-sensor prediction technique.This article introduces a water quality soft-sensor prediction method based on Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit(BiGRU)combined with Gaussian Progress Regression(GPR)optimized by Tree-structured Parzen Estimator(TPE).TPE automatically optimizes the hyperparameters of BiGRU,and BiGRU is trained to obtain the point prediction with GPR for the interval prediction.Then,a case study applying this prediction method for an actual anaerobic process(2500 m^(3)/d)is carried out.Results show that TPE effectively optimizes the hyperparameters of BiGRU.For point prediction of CODeff and biogas yield,R^(2)values of BiGRU,which are 0.973 and 0.939,respectively,are increased by 1.03%–7.61%and 1.28%–10.33%,compared with those of other models,and the valid prediction interval can be obtained.Besides,the proposed model is assessed as a reliable model for anaerobic process through the probability prediction and reliable evaluation.It is expected to provide high accuracy and reliable water quality prediction to offer basis for operators in WWTPs to control the reactor and minimize carbon emission and energy consumption.

基于HHO优化的时空水质预测模型

我国水资源现状不容乐观,提高水质预测模型精度对水资源质量监测具有重要意义。为捕捉水质指标时序数据非线性变化趋势,水质指标多基于神经网络模型进行预测。但是现有模型忽略了河流流向,没有考虑上游监测点水质对下游水质的影响;同时现有模型多基于启发式优化算法中的粒子群算法调整神经网络的超参数,但该优化算法仍需设置较多超参数,而参数选取不当容易使模型陷入局部最优。为此,建立了时空水质预测模型(WT‐CNN‐LSTM‐HHO),利用哈里斯鹰优化算法(HHO),基于上游水质数据预测下游的氮、磷和溶解氧水质指标。实验结果显示,本文所提出的模型对水质预测性能有明显提升,可以实现设置较少超参数而达到较高的水质预测精度。

基于CEEMDAN-VMD-TCN-lightGBM模型的水质预测研究

针对目前水质预测模型中因为数据本身的复杂性、在信号处理过程中存在的噪声干扰以及分解深度不够导致单一分解难以全面捕捉信号非线性特征的问题,提出了一种基于二次分解的水质预测模型。该模型采用完全自适应噪声集合经验模态分解(CEEMDAN)对原始数据进行分解,再利用变分模态分解(VMD)对熵值最高的模态分量进行二次分解,最终将处理后的时间序列输入到TCN-lightGBM多特征预测模型中。同时,采用麻雀算法(SSA)对预测模型进行优化。以山东省玉符河水质为例,本模型的均方根误差(RMSE)是0.1053,平均绝对误差(MAE)是0.0815,决定系数(R2)是0.9471,与GRU、LSTM、LightGBM、TCN等当下较为流行的模型的预测指标进行比较。结果显示,在R2上本模型提升了53.04%、70.41%、66.07%、65.20%等,在RMSE上减少了62.76%、65.50%、64.93%、64.80%等,在MAE上降低了62.76%、66.24%、63.80%、65.24%等。由此可知,基于CEEMDAN-VMD-TCN-lightGBM的模型具有更好的预测性能、泛化能力和捕捉信号非线性特征的能力。

基于GRA-GRU的淮河流域水质预测研究

水质指标具有多元相关性、时序性和非线性的特点,为有效预测河流水质变化,针对水质数据存在缺失和异常的问题,提出基于灰色关联分析-门控循环单元(Grey Relational Analysis-Gated Recurrent Unit, GRA-GRU)的水质预测模型。以淮河流域水质数据为样本,使用线性插值修补缺失数据和剔除的异常数据。使用灰色关联分析计算不同水质指标间的相关性,选择高相关性的水质指标以确定输入变量,并使用门控循环单元(Gated Recurrent Unit, GRU)预测不同的水质指标。将GRA-GRU的预测结果与反向传播神经网络(Back Propagation Neural Network, BPNN)、循环神经网络(Recurrent Neural Network, RNN)、长短期记忆神经网络(Long Short Term Memory, LSTM)、GRU及灰色关联分析-长短期记忆神经网络(Grey Relational Analysis-Long Short Term Memory, GRA-LSTM)进行对比分析,结果显示GRA-GRU在不同水质指标预测上具有较好的适应性,可以有效降低预测误差。其中,与其他模型相比,GRA-GRU预测的化学需氧量在均方根误差上分别降低了3.617%、0.681%、0.478%、1.505%和0.471%。

废水处理中水质监测参数的实时预测研究

针对污水处理厂生化池中参数监测智能化水平不高、人力耗费较大的问题,提出基于麻雀算法-长短期记忆神经网络(Sparrow Search Algorithm-Long Short Term Memory Network,SSA-LSTM)的水质参数预测模型。以污水处理过程中好氧区溶解氧(Dissolved Oxygen,DO)、好氧区混合液悬浮固体(Mixed Liquid Suspended Solids,MLSS)质量浓度、缺氧区DO、缺氧区氧化还原电位(Oxidation-Reduction Potential,ORP)、厌氧区DO和厌氧区ORP 6个关键指标为数据样本,进行实例研究。将SSA-LSTM的预测结果与长短期记忆神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory Network,LSTM)、粒子群算法(Particle Swarm optimization-Long Short Term Memory Network,PSO-LSTM)、深度森林以及支持向量机进行对比分析,结果显示:SSA-LSTM在6个参数上的均方误差(EMSE)和决定系数(R2)均表现出更好的预测性,预测精度最高。

基于VMD-TCN-GRU模型的水质预测研究

为充分挖掘水质数据在短时震荡中的变化特征,提升预测模型的精度,提出一种基于VMD(变分模态分解)、TCN(卷积时间神经网络)及GRU(门控循环单元)组成的混合水质预测模型,采用VMD-TCN-GRU模型对汾河水库出水口高锰酸盐指数进行预测,并与此类研究中常见的SVR(支持向量回归)、LSTM(长短期记忆神经网络)、TCN和CNN-LSTM(卷积神经网络-长短期记忆神经网络)这4种模型预测结果对比表明:VMD-TCN-GRU模型能更好挖掘水质数据在短时震荡过程中的特征信息,提升水质预测精度;VMD-TCN-GRU模型的MAE(平均绝对误差)、RMSE(均方根误差)下降,R^(2)(确定系数)提高,其MAE、RMSE、R^(2)分别为0.0553、0.0717、0.9351;其预测性能优越,预测精度更高且拥有更强的泛化能力,可以应用于汾河水质预测。

基于CSA-PLS算法的养殖水体水质快速高光谱预测反演模型研究

养殖水体水质的优劣直接影响养殖对象的成长,准确、快速、全面地掌控养殖水环境的水质参数变化情况具有重要意义。传统的水质指标监测方法都通过人工采样的方式,不仅耗费时间长,且只能体现局部水体情况。针对这些问题,提出了一种乌鸦搜索算法(CSA)结合偏最小二乘回归(PLSR)的高光谱特征波段筛选方法,快速构建回归模型,实现光谱数据的精准预测反演。以连片的养殖小区为研究对象,采集养殖水体样本并拍摄同时期的高光谱影像数据。首先对提取的采样点光谱数据利用多种数据变换方法分别预处理;其次利用这些数据,对水质指标总氮(TN)、氨氮(NH_(4)^(+)-N)、总磷(TP)和化学需氧量(COD)分别构建全波段的SVR和AdaBoost回归模型,同时与提出的CSA-PLS自动筛选波段方法和传统的连续投影算法(SPA)筛选波段后构建的模型进行比较分析;最后根据决定系数(R^(2))和均方根误差(REMS)选出适合各水质指标的最优模型。从实验结果可以看出,所提波段筛选方法的AdaBoost模型预测结果优于SVR和传统SPA方法提取特征波段后构建的模型,与全波段最优模型相比,在评价指标R^(2)和RMSE上TN提升了18.32%和10.73%;NH_(4)^(+)-N提升了17.42%和11.19%;COD提升了2.15%和2.54%。结果表明,基于CSA-PLS算法的光谱波段自动筛选方法结合AdaBoost构建的预测反演模型是有效、可行的,具有较高的精准度,为实现养殖水环境实时准确的预警调控提供了一种新的数据预测模型。

基于文献计量学的水质预测研究进展及趋势

随着社会经济的快速发展,我国各类水环境问题日益突出。水质预测研究基于大样本环境监测数据,对于提前制定水环境保护对策具有重要的支撑作用。但是,目前对水质预测的阶段性研究进展及趋势的总结分析还较少。文章基于文献计量学理论,对2000—2023年收录在中国知网(CNKI)中文文献数据库和WOS(web of science)核心合集文献库中的水质预测领域论文进行检索,采用VOSviewer软件对国内外相关文献进行综合分析,通过构建长时间的序列图谱,系统地梳理了该领域的研究进展与科研成果,揭示了关于水质预测领域的研究趋势。结果表明:水质预测研究是一个典型的多作者、多国家、多机构的合作领域;我国每年出版的水质预测论文数量最多,且科研成果一直处于世界领先地位,表明我国是水质预测研究领域的主导国家。通过分析关键词发现,与传统方法相比,BP神经网络以及深度学习等是近年来行之有效的水质预测方法。该研究将有助于提升我国水质预测的研究水准,为未来相关研究提供文献计量学成果参考。

基于ESSA-LSTM的养殖工船水质溶解氧预测方法研究

为了准确预测水质参数中的溶氧量,采用长短时记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)模型,提出一种增强型麻雀搜索算法(Enhance Sparrow Search Algorithm,ESSA)以改进预测率的精确性。该算法引入了Circle混沌映射进行种群初始化,并结合正弦余弦算法和Levy飞行策略分别对侦察者、跟踪者的位置进行更新,以促使麻雀个体能够快速跳出局部最优解。首先将ESSA与多种其他算法进行多形态基准函数对比测试,结果表明该算法在多个基准函数上展现出出色的性能和鲁棒性;随后将其应用于LSTM模型参数寻优,并与其他优化算法进行比较,结果显示基于ESSALSTM模型的预测率达到99.071%,相较于基本麻雀搜索算法(Sparrow Search Algorithm,SSA)、灰狼优化算法(Grey Wolf Optimizer,GWO)、海洋捕食算法(Marine Predators Algorithm,MPA)、鲸鱼算法(Whale Optimization Algorithm,WOA)分别提升了2.142%、6.653%、6.682%、7.714%。研究表明,使用ESSA显著提高了溶解氧预测率,并有效减少了参数设置的盲目性和时间成本。

基于ICS优化RBF的水库水质三维预测方法

针对已有水质预测模型在数据降噪、网络参数初始值设置和优化、精度提高等方面能力的不足,构建了一种优化的水质三维预测模型。利用主成分分析算法筛选出水质关键参数,并基于自适应噪声的完全集合经验模态分解算法结合小波阈值模型对三维水质参数和气象数据降噪处理,使用3维卷积神经网络(Three-dimensional convolutional neural networks,3-D CNN)提取出特征数据集,自编码器(Autoencoder,AE)获得径向基函数(Radial basis function,RBF)网络参数初始化值,改进布谷鸟搜索算法(Improved cuckoo search,ICS)优化更新网络中超参数动态初始化值。广东省湛江市徐闻县大水桥水库区域22个典型在线监测站点以及6个手持监测点的实测数据对比验证结果表明,浊度和藻密度分别与总氮含量强正相关,叶绿素含量与气温强正相关,所提出的水质预测模型在5个典型精准性评价指标方面优于已有文献方法。研究成果可为管理部门和研究者对水质监测提供参考。

基于GAT-Transformer时间序列模型的SOWQP

水质污染现象日趋严重,水质预测对于水质的保护尤为重要。然而水质受到多种水质指标的影响,并且水质监测数据是一种时序数据,各种指标间存在着复杂关系,现有的方法并不能充分捕捉水中各指标间的复杂关系。针对当前水质时序数据预测长距离依赖和多种指标间关系考虑不充分的问题,提出一种基于GAT-Transformer的水质预测方法。首先引入卷积神经网络(CNN)提取每个水质时间序列数据输入的高级特征;然后将CNN输出的数据输入GAT层和多头自注意力层,通过GAT捕捉水中各元素间的复杂关系;最后将GAT层和多头自注意力层的输出结合,通过Transformer进行预测输出。使用内蒙古某真实水质数据集进行实验,表明所提方法在MAE、MSE和RMSE三个指标上的综合表现优于其它方法。