WATER RESOURCES AND OASIS CONSTRUCTION IN TARIM BASIN

Based on the description of the main characteristics of water resources in Tarim Basin, the paper discusses the relationships between utilization of water resources and oasis construction, and the protection and development of the oasis in Tarim Basin,

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China

This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and sets up an evaluation model applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the data of nature,society,economics and water resources of the Tarim River Basin in 2002,we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of the basin by means of the model. The results show that the comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 for Aksu and Kashi prefectures respectively,where the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity,0.620 for Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture,where water resources carrying capacity is much higher,and in between for Hotan Prefecture and Bayingolin Mongo-lian Autonomous Prefecture. As a whole,the comprehensive grade of the Tarim River Basin is 0.508 and the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree. Thus,we suggest that the integrated management of the water resources in the basin should be strengthened in order to utilize water resources scientifically and sustainably.

A simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming model for water resources management in Kaidu-Konqi watershed,China

This study presented a simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming （STIP） model to support water resources management in the Kaidu-Konqi watershed in Northwest China. The modeling system coupled a distributed hydrological model with an interval two-stage stochastic programing （ITSP）. The distributed hydrological model was used for establishing a rainfall-runoff forecast system, while random parameters were pro- vided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes water resources management planning in Kaidu-Konqi The developed STIP model was applied to a real case of watershed, where three scenarios with different water re- sources management policies were analyzed. The results indicated that water shortage mainly occurred in agri- culture, ecology and forestry sectors. In comparison, the water demand from municipality, industry and stock- breeding sectors can be satisfied due to their lower consumptions and higher economic values. Different policies for ecological water allocation can result in varied system benefits, and can help to identify desired water allocation plans with a maximum economic benefit and a minimum risk of system disruption under uncertainty.

Utilization of water resources, ecological balance and land desertification in the Tarim Basin, Xinjiang

Because of the human exploitation and utilization of water resources in the Tarim Basin,the water resources consumption has changed from mainly natural ecosystem to artificial oasisecosystem, and the environment has changed correspondingly. The basic changes are: desertifi-cation and oasis development coexist, both "the human being advance and the desert retreat" and"the desert advance and the human being retreat" coexist, but the latter is dominant. In the upperreaches, water volume drawing to irrigated agricultural areas has increased, artificial oases havebeen enlarging and moving from the deltas in the lower reaches of many rivers to the piedmontplains. In the middle and lower reaches of the Tarim River, the stream flow has decreased, old oa-ses have declined, natural vegetations have been degenerating, desertification has been enlarging,and the environment has deteriorated. The transition regions, which consist of forestlands, grass-lands and waters between the desert and the oases, have been decreasing continuously, theirshelter function to the oases has been weakened, and the desert is threatening the oases seri-ously.

Spatio-temporal analysis of urbanization and land and water resources efficiency of oasis cities in Tarim River Basin

This paper examines the spatial pattern of land and water resources as well as urbanization and their interactions in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China. In order to do so, we extract the data associated with efficiency of land and water resources and urbanization for the years of 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2008. Specifically the paper investigates the extent to which agglomeration of population and economic activities varies geographically and inter- plays with spatial pattern of resources efficiency through computation of Global Moran＇s I index, Getis-Ord Gi＊ index and a coordinated development model. The method used provides clear evidence that urbanization, land and water resources efficiency have shown uneven spatial pattern due to oasis distribution, climate, and initial phase of urban development. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. （1） Agglomeration and dispersion of urbanization are not consistent with those of land and water resources efficiency. （2） Evolution of the hot and cold spots of urbanization, and land and water resources efficiency, in different trajecto- ries, indicate that there are no significant interactions between them. （3） The evidence that numbers of hot and cold spots of the three factors present varying structures reveals the dominance of unequal urban development in the study area. （4） Significant differences are also found between sub-river basins in terms of the three factors, which is a reflection of the complex physical geography of the area. （5） The degree of coordinated development of cities in the Tarim River Basin is generally low in part as a reflection of difference in spatial patterns of the three factors. It is also shown that the pattern of the degree of coordinated development is relatively stable compared with evolution of hot and cold spots of the three factors.

Evolution Stages of Oasis Economy and Its Dependence on Natural Resources in Tarim River Basin

This paper examines spatio-temporal characteristics of an oasis economy and its relationship with water and mineral resources in the Tarim River Basin from 1965 to 2005. A spatial autocorrelation model, the center of gravity model, and index system of the regional central city are used to probe the evolution laws of spatial structure of oasis economy. The study finds that: 1) The economic centre of gravity, whose variation track during this period follows linear rate law, was moving from headstream to middle reaches of the Tarim River. 2) Positive spatial autocorrelation which showed a waving and ascending trend of regional economy was significant and the neighbor effect of regional economic growth was strengthened continuously. 3) The regional economic centre was located in Hotan City before 1980, moved to Aksu City during the 1980s and to Korla City after 1990. We conclude that above all, during the recent four decades the evolution of the oasis economy in this region has gone through three stages: a traditional agriculture stage (before 1980), oasis agriculture and agricultural product processing stage (1980–1990) and oasis energy industry stage (after 1990). Furthermore, the dependence degree of the oasis economy on natural resources in different stages are studied by using dominance index, regression model, and grey relation method, which shows that an oasis econ- omy highly depends on water resources in the oasis agriculture and agricultural product processing stage while it de- pends more on mineral resources such as oil and natural gas during the oasis energy industry stage.

The utilization of water resources and its variation tendency in Tarim River Basin

水资源有效利用在 Tarim 是生态的改进和经济开发的关键河盆。在整个河盆分析水资源利用和它的变化趋势是必要的。在八个气象学的车站和十五个水文学车站基于监视数据和形成，时间系列的方法，回归分析被用于在特别在源流和主流的区域分析水资源利用和变化趋势最近 10 年。量的结果显示源流区域的流入在过去的 40 年里有一个增加的趋势到不同程度。增加趋势的流量从 1994 ～ 2002 是更重要的，它证明在源流的水资源条件在一个优点。然而，与 25 的体积在水的条件下面增加#

Water Pricing Policy in Tarim Basin of China

China ranks the thirteenth among countries with serious water shortage problems in the world. The average amount of water owned per person is only 2400 m 3/year, which is about 1/4 of the world average. But unfortunately, the efficiency of water use, especially in agriculture in some arid areas, is very low, only 20%30% in some areas. The main reason is that water prices are too low to protect the water resources. In this paper, the Tarim Basin of southern Xinjiang is selected to study the water supply costs and farmer's tolerance of water expenses based on a great amount of data collected in the four prefectures in the Tarim Basin. Then, three steps are suggested for water pricing reform in the Tarim Basin. Finally, several possible water pricing patterns are presented, such as water coupons, seasonal floating prices, and water price counting in kind but paying in currency. The conclusion is that the present water price system should be reformed and the water price can be increased to some extent for agricultural use even in Xinjiang, a developing area in China.

THE UTILIZATION OF WATER RESOURCE AND THE OASIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN ARID LAND—A CASE STUDY OF TURPAN BASIN

Turpan Basin is a unique geographic region in China. The topography of the Basin is closed and the climate is extremely dry. The shortage of water resource has been restricting the existence and development of the oasis in Turpan Basin. This paper briefly analyzes the characteristics of the basin's water resources, and expounds the processes of their utilization and regional development. It points out that the exploration of water resource is close to the limit and the utilization of water resource is unreasonable. So it is nonrealistic to follow the traditional exploration pattern. According to the transforming pattern between runoff and groundwater in the basin, an overall planning of the utilization of the water resource is advanced. Based on the relation between the maintenance of Aydingkol Lake and the existence of the oasis, the amount of water resource used must be controlled in order to guarantee the existence of the lake. The orientation of the utilization of water resource is to improve the management level of water resource, and to apply advanced water saving technology. Building up an economic system which can effectively use water resource is the orientation of the oasis sustainable economic development.

塔里木河流域土地利用及人类活动强度的时空演化特征研究

[研究目的]人类活动引起的土地利用/覆被变化是全球环境变化的重要组成部分,旱区土地利用对区域水文和生态的影响尤为显著,探究土地利用变化及其对人类活动的响应对西北干旱内陆生态与资源环境可持续发展具有重要意义。[研究方法]基于1980-2018年间共5期遥感影像,结合土地利用动态度、土地利用转移矩阵和人类活动强度指数分析塔里木河流域各水资源分区土地利用变化特征。[研究结果]近40年中,塔里木河流域耕地、建设用地和林地面积分别增加1.58×10^(4)km^(2)、1.2×10^(3) km^(2)和347 km^(2),而草地、未利用地和水域面积分别减少1.33×10^(4)km^(2)、0.32×10^(4)km^(2)和815 km^(2)。各水资源分区中塔里木河干流土地利用类型变化最大,其次为渭干河、阿克苏河和喀什噶尔河流域。自2000年以来,塔里木河流域建设用地当量面积和人类活动强度增加相对较快,特别是2000-2010年间呈显著增长趋势。[结论]塔里木河流域各水资源分区的人类活动强度呈显著的空间差异性。社会经济发展和政策的导向性作用是塔里木河流域土地利用变化和人类活动强度的主要影响因素。

塔里木河流域水储量变化及绿洲生态安全评估

绿洲是干旱、半干旱地区最具生态敏感性和独特性的景观类型,是维系人类生存和社会经济发展的重要区域。然而,在气候变化与人类活动双重影响下,干旱区水资源及其绿洲生境正发生剧烈变化。基于2000—2020年MODIS、GRACE卫星数据、土地利用数据和气象观测资料,通过计算植被覆盖度,估算植被初级生产力(NPP)和遥感生态指数(RSEI),系统分析了过去20 a塔里木河(简称塔河)流域陆地水储量和绿洲的动态变化并完成了绿洲区生态安全评估。结果表明:(1)2002—2020年塔河流域陆地水储量以0.27 mm·月-1的速率减少,空间上塔河流域陆地水储量在北部和西部区域显著减少,而在南部区域显著增加。(2)2000—2020年塔河流域绿洲面积显著增加,面积增加6.49%(0.42×10^(4)km^(2))。塔河流域整体生态环境呈转好趋势,生态等级由较差级别转为中等级别,生态改善区占总流域面积的69%,而生态退化区面积不足5%。塔河流域归一化植被指数(NDVI)由2000年的0.13增至2020年的0.16,近20 a植被覆盖度增加36.79%,NPP增加31.55%。(3)气温升高和降水增多的同时伴随下游河川径流增加,这进一步加剧了塔河流域陆地水资源储量的时空差异性,但人类活动仍是绿洲显著扩张最根本的原因。

Impacts of temperature and precipitation on runoff in the Tarim River during the past 50 years

The relationship between climate change and water resources in the Tarim River was analyzed by combining the temperature,precipitation and streamflow data from 1957 to 2007 from the four headstreams of the Tarim River （Aksu,Hotan,Yarkant and Kaidu rivers） in the study area.The long-term trend of the hydrological time series including temperature,precipitation and streamflow were studied using correlation analysis and partial correlations analysis.Holt double exponential smoothing was used to fit the trends between streamflow and the two climatic factors of Aksu River,Hotan River and Yarkant River.The streamflow of the main stream was forecasted by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model （ARIMA） modeling by the method of time series analysis.The results show that the temperature experienced a trend of monotonic rising.The precipitation and runoff of the four headstreams of the Tarim River increased,while the inflow to the headstreams increased and the inflow into the Tarim River decreased.Changes of temperature and precipitation had a significant impact on runoff into the four headstreams of the Tarim River： the precipitation had a positive impact on water flow in the Aksu River,Hotan River and Kaidu River,while the temperature had a positive impact on water flow in the Yarkant River.The results of Holt double exponential smoothing showed that the correlation between the independent variable and dependent variable was relatively close after the model was fitted to the headstreams,of which only the runoff and temperature values of Hotan River showed a significant negative correlation.The forecasts by the ARIMA model for 50 years of annual runoff at the Allar station followed the pattern of the measured data for the same years.The short-term forecasts beyond the observed series adequately captured the pattern in the data and showed a decreasing tendency in the Tarim River flow of 3.07% every ten years.The results showed that global warming accelerated the water recharge process of the headstreams.The special hydrological characteristics of the arid area determined the significant association between streamflow and the two climatic factors studied.Strong glacier retreat is likely to bring a series of flood disasters within the study area.

塔里木河流域农业水土资源时空匹配关系研究

农业水土资源可持续利用是推进塔里木河流域生态文明建设、协调兵团向南发展战略部署以及促进各产业融合发展的重要基础。本研究基于2005-2020年塔里木河流域5个地区的农业水土资源匹配现状,运用基尼系数法、农业水土资源匹配系数以及农业水土资源当量系数,结合ArcGIS软件对塔里木河流域水土资源时空匹配状况进行分析。结果表明:从地理分布上来看,塔里木河流域耕地资源主要集中在喀什地区、阿克苏地区,耕地资源分布和水资源有密切关系。在研究时间跨度内,水土资源基尼系数在0.05~0.12之间,整体表现为波动变化,但是变化幅度不大,处于绝对均衡水平。农业水土资源匹配系数在研究期内呈现出先下降后升高再下降的特征,5个地区的农业水土资源匹配系数逐渐趋于一致,并稳定在1~2之间。结合当量系数分析,虽然塔里木河流域5个地区的农业水土资源均衡程度较好,但是5个地区仍处于极度缺水状态,且地区差异大。研究表明,塔里木河流域水土资源分布一致,整体处于缺水状态,随着节水力度的增大农用水占比呈下降趋势。

江西省吉泰盆地水资源优化配置探析

吉泰盆地存在农业旱灾问题突出、水资源配置体系不健全、灌溉体系布局不完善等问题。分析了该区水资源状况及开发利用现状,提出了实现水资源优化配置的建议,即建设一个基本覆盖全域、功能健全、互联互通、丰枯互济、调控自如、保障有力的新灌区,推进灌区信息化建设,加强灌区管理。

How Water-Development Nexus Can Reunite Central Asia?

The following article has been retracted due to the fact that it cannot be accepted by the author’s university as a scientific peer-reviewed publication. The Editorial Board takes a very strong respect to the author’s situation on this matter. This paper published in World Journal of Engineering and Technology Vol.2 No.3B, September 2014, has been removed from this site.

塔里木河“二源一干”生态供水潜力研究

为解决塔里木河干流水资源短缺、流域损失水量过大、用水效率低下、农业灌溉用水挤占生态用水等问题,基于“节水优先”的治水方针,以塔里木河二源流(阿克苏河、叶尔羌河)及其干流(“二源一干”)的山区水库群和平原水库群为研究对象,兼顾塔里木河干流的农业灌溉用水、生态用水、工业用水、生活用水等多目标,构建并求解了现状水平年和远景规划年的山区与平原水库群联合调度优化模型,分析了塔里木河干流的生态供水潜力和山区水库群联合调度的贡献。结果表明:仅通过干流平原水库群联合调度,农业灌溉用水和生态用水的供水保证率难以满足设计要求;通过山区与平原水库群优化调度,在远景规划年各行业均满足设计保证率要求,体现了山区水库群显著的调控性能和“节水优先”治水方针的合理性和可靠性;远景规划年塔里木河干流的生态供水潜力为2.84亿m^(3),可为塔里木河下游生态保护与修复提供了坚实的水量基础。

长江流域三水协同调控关键技术应用展望

长江流域三水统筹协同共治是支撑长江经济带高质量发展的关键抓手。当前长江流域干流水生态环境质量全面转好,但是仍存在支流和局部区域水资源调控复杂、水环境污染频发、水生态风险突出等多重问题。在长江生态文明建设背景下,亟需从水资源、水环境、水生态统筹视角出发,破解三水融合协同共治与精准调控难题。深入分析了长江流域三水存在的问题及协同调控面临的挑战,提出了三水协同调控作用机制剖析、调控手段策略以及智慧化建设等三水协同调控关键技术体系的创新和应用。以期支撑流域三水量、质、效同步提升,推动实现长江流域“高颜值”生态环境和“高质量”经济协同发展的新格局。

水利遗产研究保护融入流域水资源管理探讨——以甘肃省讨赖河流域为例

讨赖河流域屯田水利系统作为我国干旱区重要的水利遗产,在工程技术、制度思想、发挥效益等方面极富代表性,除应进一步展开学术研究外,还应注重在现实水利工作中充分展现其价值。水利物质遗产保护与地方文旅规划结合,扩大了流域水资源管理工作的外延与内涵;对水利非物质遗产的细致研究,可总结出未来流域水资源管理制度调整时必须遵循的若干基本准则。讨赖河流域水利遗产的保护、传承、利用必须融入到流域水资源管理工作中,方能真正落到实处并获得持久生命力。

新疆塔里木河流域生态文明建设对策建议

水是山水林田湖草沙系统治理的核心,是制约塔里木河流域经济社会高质量发展和生态文明建设的首要问题和关键要素。通过对塔里木河流域2000年前生态环境状况与面临形势进行分析,综合2000年以来流域综合治理成效,对未来流域生态文明建设提出对策。结果认为:受气候变化与人类水土资源过度开发的影响,流域内人工绿洲面积持续增加、天然绿洲面积不断萎缩,人与自然争水矛盾日渐突出、河湖生态系统持续退化给流域水环境、水安全、水生态带来了严峻挑战;近年来主要从健全流域管理体制机制、完善流域重要水利基础设施、强化水资源管理和节约利用三个方面进行了综合治理工作并取得显著成效;针对新形势下流域生态保护面临的问题,从坚持节水优先、健全水资源管理体制机制、补齐水利工程短板增强流域水资源调蓄能力、大力实施流域生态治理工程、启动塔里木河流域综合治理二期等五个方面提出流域生态文明建设的对策建议。研究成果对于实现流域生态保护与修复、经济社会高质量发展具有重要作用。同时也为指导西北干旱区类似流域综合治理提供了技术参考与示范案例。

大藤峡水利枢纽建设对珠江鱼类早期资源的影响分析

农业农村部珠江中下游渔业资源环境科学观测实验站于2006-2021年连续16年对珠江漂流性鱼卵、仔鱼的调查监测结果显示,大藤峡水利枢纽施工期造成了46.2%的鱼类产卵场功能丧失,蓄水后造成了76.9%的鱼类产卵场功能丧失,鱼类早期资源呈现急剧衰退趋势。鉴于珠江鱼类早期资源面临的严峻形势,建议国家相关部委和地方渔业、水利等主管部门加大重视力度,尽快落实渔业资源养护措施,开展重点水域鱼类栖息地保护区建设和常年禁捕政策制定、水利工程生态调度机制研究、涉渔工程生态补偿措施落实专项检查、渔业资源环境专项跟踪监测等工作,切实保护珠江流域鱼类早期资源等水生生物资源,维护流域生态系统安全。