A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism

A debris flow forecast model based on a water-soil coupling mechanism that takes the debrisflow watershed as a basic forecast unit was established here for the prediction of disasters at the watershed scale.This was achieved through advances in our understanding of the formation mechanism of debris flow.To expand the applicable spatial scale of this forecasting model,a method of identifying potential debris flow watersheds was used to locate areas vulnerable to debris flow within a forecast region.Using these watersheds as forecasting units and a prediction method based on the water-soil coupling mechanism,a new forecasting method of debris flow at the regional scale was established.In order to test the prediction ability of this new forecasting method,the Sichuan province,China was selected as a study zone and the large-scale debris flow disasters attributable to heavy rainfall in this region on July 9,2013 were taken as the study case.According to debris flow disaster data on July 9,2013 which were provided by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province,there were 252 watersheds in which debris flow events actually occurred.The current model predicted that 265 watersheds were likely to experience a debris flow event.Among these,43 towns including 204 debrisflow watersheds were successfully forecasted and 24 towns including 48 watersheds failed.The false prediction rate and failure prediction rate of thisforecast model were 23% and 19%,respectively.The results show that this method is more accurate and more applicable than traditional methods.

Pore pressure fluctuations of overlying aquifer during residual coal mining and water-soil stress coupling analysis

Three test models and a simulation model were constructed based on the prevailing conditions of the Taiping coalmine in order to analyze pore pressure fluctuations of an overlying aquifer during residual coal mining. As well, the relation between pore pressure and soil stress was evaluated. The model tests show the vibrations of pore pressure and soil stress as a result of mining activities. The simulation model tells of the response characteristics of pore pressure after mining and its distribution in the sand aquifer. The comparative analysis reveals that pore pressure and soil stress vibration are activated by unexpected events occurring in mines, such as collapsing roofs. An increased pore pressure zone always lies above the wall in front or behind the working face of a mine. Both pore pressure and vertical stress result in increasing and decreasing processes during movements of the working face of a mine. The vibration of pore pressure always precedes soil stress in the same area and ends with a sharp decline. Changes in pore pressure of sand aquifer are limited to the area of stress changes. Obvious changes are largely located in a very small frame over the mining face.

The Maximum Principle for Fully Coupled Forward-backward Stochastic Control System

The maximum principle for fully coupled forward-backward stochastic control system in the global form is proved, under the assumption that the forward diffusion coefficient does not contain the control variable, but the control domain is not necessarily convex.

Fully coupled fluid-solid productivity numerical simulation of multistage fractured horizontal well in tight oil reservoirs

A mathematical model, fully coupling multiple porous media deformation and fluid flow, was established based on the elastic theory of porous media and fluid-solid coupling mechanism in tight oil reservoirs. The finite element method was used to determine the numerical solution and the accuracy of the model was verified. On this basis, the model was used to simulate productivity of multistage fractured horizontal wells in tight oil reservoirs. The results show that during the production of tight oil wells, the reservoir region close to artificial fractures deteriorated in physical properties significantly, e.g. the aperture and conductivity of artificial fractures dropped by 52.12% and 89.02% respectively. The simulations of 3000-day production of a horizontal well in tight oil reservoir showed that the predicted productivity by the uncoupled model had an error of 38.30% from that by the fully-coupled model. Apparently, ignoring the influence of fluid-solid interaction effect led to serious deviations of the productivity prediction results. The productivity of horizontal well in tight oil reservoir was most sensitive to the start-up pressure gradient, and second most sensitive to the opening of artificial fractures. Enhancing the initial conductivity of artificial fractures was helpful to improve the productivity of tight oil wells. The influence of conductivity, spacing, number and length of artificial fractures should be considered comprehensively in fracturing design. Increasing the number of artificial fractures unilaterally could not achieve the expected increase in production.

A Comparison Theorem for Solution of the Fully Coupled Backward Stochastic Differential Equations

The comparison theorems of solutions for BSDEs in fully coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs) are studied in this paper, here in the fully coupled FBSDEs the forward SDEs are the same structure.

Fully Coupled Fluid-Structure Interaction Model Based on Distributed Lagrange Multiplier/Fictitious Domain Method

This paper, with a finite element method, studies the interaction of a coupled incompressible fluid-rigid structure system with a free surface subjected to external wave excitations. With this fully coupled model, the rigid structure is taken as ＂fictitious＂ fluid with zero strain rate. Both fluid and structure are described by velocity and pressure. The whole domain, including fluid region and structure region, is modeled by the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations which are discretized with fixed Eulerian mesh. However, to keep the structure＇ s rigid body shape and behavior, a rigid body constraint is enforced on the ＂fictitious＂ fluid domain by use of the Distributed Lagrange Multipher/Fictitious Domain （DLM/ FD） method which is originally introduced to solve particulate flow problems by Glowinski et al. For the verification of the model presented herein, a 2D numerical wave tank is established to simulate small amplitude wave propagations, and then numerical results are compared with analytical solutions. Finally, a 2D example of fluid-structure interaction under wave dynamic forces provides convincing evidences for the method excellent solution quality and fidelity.

Hydrodynamic Response of A Fully Coupled TLP Hull-TTR System with Detailed Modeling of A Hydraulic Pneumatic Tensioner and Riser Joints

Tension Leg Platform(TLP)in deepwater oil and gas field development usually consists of a hull,tendons,and top tension risers(TTRs).To maintain its top tension,each TTR is connected with a tensioner system to the hull.Owing to the complicated configuration of the tensioners,the hull and TTRs form a strong coupled system.Traditionally,some simplified tensioner models are applied to analyze the TLP structures.There is a large discrepancy between their analysis results and the actual mechanism behaviors of a tensioner.It is very necessary to develop a more detailed tensioner model to consider the coupling effects between TLP and TTRs.In the present study,a fully coupled TLP hull-TTR system for hydrodynamic numerical simulation is established.A specific hydraulic pneumatic tensioner is modeled by considering 4 cylinders.The production TTR model is stacked up by specific riser joints.The simulation is also extended to analyze an array of TTRs.Different regular and irregular waves are considered.The behaviors of different cylinders are presented.The results show that it is important to consider the specific configurations of the tensioner and TTRs,which may lead to obviously different response behaviors,compared with those from a simplified model.

页岩气老井重复压裂时机优化方法

基于多孔介质弹性理论、嵌入式离散裂缝模型及有限体积法,考虑页岩气微观渗流机制,建立适用于裂缝性页岩气储集层的渗流-地质力学全耦合模型,并提出了重复压裂时机优化方法,采用四川盆地涪陵页岩气井资料分析了重复压裂时机的影响因素。研究表明:受地层压力衰竭影响,最大水平主应力反转面积占总面积的百分比随时间的延长先增加后减小,且距人工裂缝越近的区域,应力反转面积百分比曲线出现峰值的时间越短,最终归零(恢复到初始状态)的时间也越短。重复压裂的最佳时间受基质渗透率、初始应力差、天然裂缝逼近角的影响:基质渗透率、初始应力差越大,应力反转面积百分比曲线出现峰值、恢复到初始状态的时间越短,采取重复压裂措施的时机越早。天然裂缝逼近角越大,裂缝附近越难发生应力反转、重复压裂最佳时间越早,人工裂缝末端以远区域越易发生应力反转、重复压裂最佳时间越晚。对于基质渗透率很小的储集层,其单井产能递减快,为保证经济性,可采取关井或注气补能等措施恢复应力,提前实施重复压裂。

综掘工作面风流调控装置与射流风幕综合调控粉尘场优化分析

为解决目前综掘工作面传统混合式通风下粉尘聚集污染严重的问题,提出了利用出风口风流调控装置与抽风口射流风幕综合调控优化粉尘场的思路。以陕北某矿综掘工作面为研究对象,建立了风流-粉尘气固耦合场有限元模型,分析了调控装置口径、调控装置右偏角、风幕出口宽度、风幕出口速度及风幕出口张角等参数对粉尘场的影响;设计了正交试验以确定最佳综合调控方案,设计搭建了实验平台进行综合调控方案准确性和降尘效果验证。结果表明:在该综掘工作面通风系统布局下,当调控装置口径1.2 m,调控装置右偏角9°,风幕出口宽度0.14 m,风幕出口速度7 m/s,风幕出口张角60°时,司机位置粉尘质量浓度和行人呼吸带高度平均粉尘质量浓度分别降低91.7%和74.9%,测试误差均在10%以下,有效改善了通风环境。

全齿轮耦合机器人齿侧间隙建模与公差仿真

鉴于全齿轮耦合机器人齿轮传动链长、反转频率高的特点,分析机器人的结构和传动原理.为了减小侧隙对机器人传动精度的影响,提出齿侧间隙理论建模及三维公差仿真分析方法.针对驱动端的圆柱齿轮机构,对齿侧间隙进行理论建模和公差仿真分析,两者相吻合.针对关节处的圆锥齿轮机构,提出将圆锥齿轮副等效为假想圆柱齿轮副的侧隙建模方法,与公差仿真分析结果吻合.以机器人肩关节偏摆传动链为分析对象计算机器人末端误差,为了降低齿侧间隙及其导致的传动链回程误差,提出圆锥齿轮加垫的计算方法和电机转角补偿方法,通过实验验证该补偿方法的有效性.

基于Hoek-Brown准则的岩体高温-荷载耦合损伤模型及其验证

针对隧道岩体在高温和荷载共同作用下产生的耦合损伤问题,基于连续损伤力学理论,引入高温-荷载耦合损伤因子,建立了考虑高温作用的广义Hoek-Brown(H-B)准则的弹塑性损伤本构模型,解决了模型在数值积分过程中的奇异点问题,并利用Fortran语言编写了模型的有限元程序。结果表明:模型计算的应力-应变曲线与试验所得到的曲线趋势一致且计算结果误差在5%以内,温度作用下隧洞围岩损伤逐渐加剧,验证了模型的准确性和程序的稳健性,可为火灾作用下隧道围岩安全稳定性评价提供一种有效计算方法。

全自动石墨消解-ICP-MS法同时测定粮食和蔬菜中多种元素及健康风险评价

目的建立全自动石墨消解-ICP-MS测定粮食和蔬菜中20种元素检测方法,并对洛阳市售的粮食和蔬菜的有限量值8种元素进行健康风险评价。方法在全自动石墨仪上通过程序加入7 mL硝酸+1 mL高氯酸消解样品,用2%硝酸(V/V)定容到25 mL,联合ICP-MS同时测定20种元素,与微波消解-ICP-MS法比较差异性。采集90份市售粮食和蔬菜,根据国标限值和8种重金属靶标危害系数(THQ)和综合危害指数(TTHQ)值进行健康风险评价。结果20种元素工作曲线相关系数r均>0.9990,检出限在0.001~0.395 mg/kg。平行测定标物大米(n=11),相对标准偏差(RSD)均<5%,检测结果均在标准物质认定值范围内,且与微波消解-ICP-MS法比较,差异无统计学意义(Z=-0.805,P=0.421)。90份样品汞检出率最低(6.7%),平均含量前10位元素依次为钾、镁、钙、钠、铁、铝、锌、锰、锶、铜,均未超标。大米THQ、小麦和蔬菜THQ、TTHQ值均<1。结论全自动石墨消解仪与ICP-MS联用适合大批粮食和蔬菜中多种元素同时测定。

6~10 m厚煤层超大采高液压支架及其工作面系统自适应智能耦合控制

厚煤层储量及产量占我国原煤总储量及产量的一半,通过梳理厚煤层开采历史沿革,总结了我国厚煤层开采40年来的技术及装备研发实践,系统分析了以高端大采高液压支架及围岩智能耦合理论为代表的6~10 m大采高综采高效智能化综采技术及装备研究进展,提出了大采高支护理论及围岩智能耦合控制的突破是厚煤层一次开采高度突破的首要因素,完善的感知体系建立是液压支架自适应支护的前提,数字技术的应用为大采高工作面高效推进及装备智能协同控制提供了新的技术途径;阐明了大采高综放液压支架与围岩耦合关系,剖析了采高增加对硬煤层冒放性的有利影响,提出了基于煤矸识别、放煤机构控制的“纯煤段记忆放煤+煤岩分界模糊段人工反馈式干预放煤”的智能放煤控制策略;分析了大采高开采“采–运”协同智能耦合控制关键技术,构建了基于采煤机牵引速度与刮板输送机链速间联动调节的工作面装备间多机异构耦合自适应协同控制模型;研发了厚煤层开采中10 m超大采高液压支架,分析了厚煤层开采不断突破开采高度极限的新认识,从开采装备、控制系统等方面提出厚煤层一次开采高度的突破的研发方向。

页岩气井间压裂窜扰机理及影响规律

四川盆地南部地区(以下简称川南地区)页岩气水平井体积压裂改造过程中,受地质及工程等因素影响,水力裂缝易与单一方向大尺度天然裂缝沟通并过度扩展,从而诱导邻井压力快速上涨,最终导致压裂窜扰、套管变形等问题,直接影响页岩气单井产量。为此,针对川南地区页岩气储层压裂窜扰模式多样、机制认识不清以及防控效果有限等问题,建立了全耦合页岩气水平井压裂多簇同步扩展数值模拟模型,并阐明了不同类型压裂窜扰的影响规律,最后提出了有效治理压裂窜扰的方法。研究结果表明:①天然裂缝发育的储层中,水平井裂缝易沿单一方向大尺度天然裂缝优势条带扩展,直接或间接对邻井产生影响,造成其压力涨幅异常;②页岩气水平井通过避免在风险段压裂或降低改造强度在一定程度上可减轻压裂窜扰的影响;③压裂井附近存在衰竭邻井时,裂缝更易往邻井低应力区扩展产生压裂窜扰,窜扰程度与岩石孔隙弹性密切相关。结论认为,合理避开风险段射孔、控制压裂改造强度可有效降低页岩气水平井压裂窜扰的风险,该研究成果可为同类国内外页岩气区块页岩气水平井压裂开发提供技术指导。

基于ANSYS的储氢气瓶快充温升流热固耦合模拟研究

以某款车用碳纤维全缠绕储氢气瓶为研究对象,基于ANSYS Workbench平台,充分考虑气瓶不同结构层的差异性和温度载荷分布不均匀性,进行了流热固耦合模拟计算分析。首先对气瓶快速充装过程内部气体流场进行三维数值模拟研究其温升规律,然后将流场计算结果加载到气瓶结构层进行稳态热分析,最后将流场及热分析结果均加载到气瓶结构层进行结构静力学分析。结果表明:当充装结束时,气瓶最高温度及碳纤维复合层受到的最大应力均出现在瓶尾封头和筒体的连接处;相较于内压引起的机械应力,温度载荷引起的热应力很小;机械应力与耦合应力数值相差不大,碳纤维复合层的机械应力略小于耦合应力,而铝合金内胆层由于膨胀系数大,温度载荷引起的压缩热应力抵消了一部分机械应力,使得耦合应力小于机械应力。

10MW海上浮式风机伺服控制系统设计及耦合动力特性研究

为支撑DTU 10 MW风力机,对5 MW无撑杆半潜浮式风力机支撑平台进行了放大设计,并对10 MW半潜浮式风机的伺服控制系统重新设计。其中,在额定风速以下实施转矩控制,以实现最大功率捕获;在额定风速以上,基于增益调度比例积分(GSPI)控制方法进行变桨控制系统设计,以保证浮式风机的安全运行。基于所设计的10 MW浮式风机伺服控制系统,采用“气动-水动-控制-弹性”全耦合模型对10 MW半潜式风机在恒定风和湍流风作用下的耦合动力特性进行了分析,验证了所设计控制系统的可靠性。研究发现,在伺服系统控制作用下,10 MW浮式风机的运动响应得到有效控制,湍流风对浮式风机的纵荡和纵摇激励作用明显,垂荡运动受到风载荷和波浪的共同激励。

半潜式养殖网箱全耦合数值模型及其在规则波下的动力响应特性

随着水产养殖从近海至深远海的发展,具有抵抗恶劣海况能力的新型半潜式养殖网箱被相继设计和制造,研究其水动力性能具有重要的工程意义。基于势流理论和莫里森模型,结合三维面元法和有限元法建立半潜式养殖网箱主体框架-网衣-系泊系统全耦合数值模型,在验证数值模拟的可靠性后,分析规则波下网箱的水动力响应与结构应力响应,重点关注网箱各部分的相对运动。结果表明,网箱的运动由慢漂运动和波频运动两部分组成,其中慢漂运动会造成平衡位置的偏置;在波浪传播方向上,框架中同一高度处的节点几乎不发生相对运动,而不同高度处的节点由于竖向梁的旋转和弯曲而存在相对错位;侧向网衣中心区域存在较大的结构变形,从而导致了柔性网衣与主体框架存在较大的相对运动。此外,还分析了波浪参数和网衣密实度对网箱运动的影响。研究成果可为半潜式养殖网箱数值模拟方法提供一定参考。

Multi-Fidelity Simulation of Gas Turbine Overall Performance by Directly Coupling High-Fidelity Models of Multiple Rotating Components

Multi-fidelity simulations incorporate computational fluid dynamics(CFD) models into a thermodynamic model,enabling the simulation of the overall performance of an entire gas turbine with high-fidelity components.Traditional iterative coupled methods rely on characteristic maps,while fully coupled methods directly incorporate high-fidelity simulations.However,fully coupled methods face challenges in simulating rotating components,including weak convergence and complex implementation.To address these challenges,a fully coupled method with logarithmic transformations was developed to directly integrate high-fidelity CFD models of multiple rotating components.The developed fully coupled method was then applied to evaluate the overall performance of a KJ66 micro gas turbine across various off-design simulations.The developed fully coupled method was also compared with the traditional iterative coupled method.Furthermore,experimental data from ground tests were conducted to verify its effectiveness.The convergence history indicated that the proposed fully coupled method exhibited stable convergence,even under far-off-design simulations.The experimental verification demonstrated that the multi-fidelity simulation with the fully coupled method achieved high accuracy in off-design conditions.Further analysis revealed inherent differences in the coupling methods of CFD models between the developed fully coupled and traditional iterative coupled methods.These inherent differences provide valuable insights for reducing errors between the component-level model and CFD models in different coupling methods.The developed fully coupled method,introducing logarithmic transformations,offers more realistic support for the detailed and optimal design of high-fidelity rotating components within the overall performance platform of gas turbines.

半潜式海上漂浮式风力机气-水动全耦合分析

针对传统水动力学求解软件与其他数值分析代码不能充分考虑叶片气动载荷分布、涡尾迹结构以及风波耦合效应。通过STAR-CCM+中具有叠加运动和悬链线系泊求解器的动态流动相互作用模块建立一套气动-水动-系泊完全耦合动力学方法,开发较为可靠的漂浮式风力机数值模型。通过分析平台自由衰减曲线、6自由度响应以及风轮气动性能验证了所提耦合模型的可靠性;三维可视化流场分析表明,漂浮式风力机在波浪载荷作用下产生6自由度运动,叶片表面与涡管产生的脱落涡与塔架、机舱后方尾涡相互作用,加剧流场复杂性。结果可为漂浮式风力机流场优化与设计提供一定理论参考。

Optimization method of refracturing timing for old shale gas wells

Based on the elastic theory of porous media,embedded discrete fracture model and finite volume method,and considering the micro-seepage mechanism of shale gas,a fully coupled seepage-geomechanical model suitable for fractured shale gas reservoirs is established,the optimization method of refracturing timing is proposed,and the influencing factors of refracturing timing are analyzed based on the data from shale gas well in Fuling of Sichuan Basin.The results show that due to the depletion of formation pressure,the percentage of the maximum horizontal principal stress reversal area in the total area increases and then decreases with time.The closer the area is to the hydraulic fracture,the shorter the time for the peak of the stress reversal area percentage curve to appear,and the shorter the time for the final zero return(to the initial state).The optimum time of refracturing is affected by matrix permeability,initial stress difference and natural fracture approach angle.The larger the matrix permeability and initial stress difference is,the shorter the time for stress reversal area percentage curve to reach peak and return to the initial state,and the earlier the time to take refracturing measures.The larger the natural fracture approach angle is,the more difficult it is for stress reversal to occur near the fracture,and the earlier the optimum refracturing time is.The more likely the stress reversal occurs at the far end of the artificial fracture,the later the optimal time of refracturing is.Reservoirs with low matrix permeability have a rapid decrease in single well productivity.To ensure economic efficiency,measures such as shut-in or gas injection can be taken to restore the stress,and refracturing can be implemented in advance.