Historically,geopolitical risk(GPR)has posed significant challenges to international economic,social,and political frameworks.This study investigated how internal GPR in the selected five Southeast Asian countries(Ind...Historically,geopolitical risk(GPR)has posed significant challenges to international economic,social,and political frameworks.This study investigated how internal GPR in the selected five Southeast Asian countries(Indonesia,South Korea,Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand)influences foreign direct investment(FDI)during 1996-2019.The stationarity of the data was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)unit root test,which shows that the data became stationary after the first difference.The Kao,Pedroni,and Westerlund cointegration tests were employed to examine long-term cointegration among the selected variables(FDI,GPR index(GPRI),gross domestic product(GDP),inflation,interest rate,and trade openness(TOP)).The results indicated that these variables have a long-term cointegration.Consequently,regression analysis using the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)regression,fixed effect,random effect,Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation,and system generalized moment method(GMM)revealed that GPRI and TOP negatively impacted FDI in the selected five Southeast Asian countries.At the same time,GDP,inflation,and interest rate positively influenced FDI in these countries.Because FDI is crucial to shaping a country’s macroeconomic structure,this study recommends that governments and central banks of the selected five Southeast Asian countries should implement policies and strategies to encourage foreign investments.展开更多
Starting from China's macro-economic policy level and combining with the status of foreign trade in China, major problems in the development of foreign trade are analyzed under the background of expanding domestic...Starting from China's macro-economic policy level and combining with the status of foreign trade in China, major problems in the development of foreign trade are analyzed under the background of expanding domestic demand, which is guided by the macro-economy, international finance, international trade and other related disciplines. Problems are mainly the inflation, the reduction of import, the trade protection, the increase in export costs, the reduction of export, the scale shrinkage of foreign trade, the speculation of short-term hot money, and the increase in risk of economic fluctuation. Finally, corresponding countermeasures are put forward, such as actively coping with the appreciation of the RMB, effectively increasing the anti-risk ability of RMB, firmly maintaining the currency stability of RMB, reducing the international trade friction, transforming the growth model of foreign trade, promoting the industrial and products upgrading of foreign trade, enhancing the benefits of foreign trade, forming an effective price competition mechanism, increasing the support in trade, improving the environment for trade development, correctly dealing with the relationship between government and foreign trade enterprise, controlling inflation, and restricting hot money speculation.展开更多
We investigate the causal relationship between foreign ownership and international trade performance by comparing foreign-acquired firms with similar domestic-acquired firms in China with regard to changes in their po...We investigate the causal relationship between foreign ownership and international trade performance by comparing foreign-acquired firms with similar domestic-acquired firms in China with regard to changes in their post-acquisition international trade performance.Our findings indicate that foreign ownership significantly enhanced the probability of both exporting and importing,and strongly increased trade value.Foreign ownership took effect from the year of the acquisition and persisted for at least 2 years.It stimulated both processing trade and ordinary trade,and expanded products and trading partners.Post-acquisition trade performance also exhibited heterogeneity based on the different pre-acquisition and post-acquisition ownership.As for the underlying mechanisms,we show that firms experienced significant output expansion,increased export dependence,and eased financial constraints after foreign acquisition.展开更多
Based on the theory of technology spillover in international trade, this paper discusses the technological innovation effect of trade by taking the influence of domestic trade into account. Under the constraint of the...Based on the theory of technology spillover in international trade, this paper discusses the technological innovation effect of trade by taking the influence of domestic trade into account. Under the constraint of the production possibility frontier, there is either complementarity or substitutability between domestic and foreign trade. It must be decided whether resources should be concentrated in one of the sectors （trade specialization） or instead allocated equally （trade equalization） between the two sectors. This paper firstly discusses how domestic trade and foreign trade work together to influence technological innovation, and how trade equalization and specialization affect different types of innovation. Using a provincial-level panel dataset from 2007 to 2015 in China, this paper constructs the indicators of domestic and foreign trade linkage and examines the impact of trade on innovation. The findings show that trade equalization mainly promotes incremental innovation, while trade specialization improves radical innovation. Thus, in the area of incremental innovation, attention should be paid to the equalized development of domestic and foreign trade, while in areas pursuing radical innovation, emphasis should be put on the specialization of the trade sector, avoiding equal allocation of resources to the two sectors.展开更多
Since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, China＇s foreign trade has continued to grow faster than international trade, but its drivers are now different from those prevailing before. The participation of the Ch...Since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, China＇s foreign trade has continued to grow faster than international trade, but its drivers are now different from those prevailing before. The participation of the Chinese economy in the global production chains through processing activities is no longer the main driver of its trade performance. The new driving force of change is ordinary trade, based mainly on local inputs and domestic demand. China, which played a major role in the globalization process as an export base for multinational companies, is now shifting to having a ＂＇normal＇foreign trade system, which is more closely integrated into the domestic economy.展开更多
文摘Historically,geopolitical risk(GPR)has posed significant challenges to international economic,social,and political frameworks.This study investigated how internal GPR in the selected five Southeast Asian countries(Indonesia,South Korea,Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand)influences foreign direct investment(FDI)during 1996-2019.The stationarity of the data was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)unit root test,which shows that the data became stationary after the first difference.The Kao,Pedroni,and Westerlund cointegration tests were employed to examine long-term cointegration among the selected variables(FDI,GPR index(GPRI),gross domestic product(GDP),inflation,interest rate,and trade openness(TOP)).The results indicated that these variables have a long-term cointegration.Consequently,regression analysis using the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)regression,fixed effect,random effect,Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation,and system generalized moment method(GMM)revealed that GPRI and TOP negatively impacted FDI in the selected five Southeast Asian countries.At the same time,GDP,inflation,and interest rate positively influenced FDI in these countries.Because FDI is crucial to shaping a country’s macroeconomic structure,this study recommends that governments and central banks of the selected five Southeast Asian countries should implement policies and strategies to encourage foreign investments.
文摘Starting from China's macro-economic policy level and combining with the status of foreign trade in China, major problems in the development of foreign trade are analyzed under the background of expanding domestic demand, which is guided by the macro-economy, international finance, international trade and other related disciplines. Problems are mainly the inflation, the reduction of import, the trade protection, the increase in export costs, the reduction of export, the scale shrinkage of foreign trade, the speculation of short-term hot money, and the increase in risk of economic fluctuation. Finally, corresponding countermeasures are put forward, such as actively coping with the appreciation of the RMB, effectively increasing the anti-risk ability of RMB, firmly maintaining the currency stability of RMB, reducing the international trade friction, transforming the growth model of foreign trade, promoting the industrial and products upgrading of foreign trade, enhancing the benefits of foreign trade, forming an effective price competition mechanism, increasing the support in trade, improving the environment for trade development, correctly dealing with the relationship between government and foreign trade enterprise, controlling inflation, and restricting hot money speculation.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.72273035,72121002,and 42341205)the Major Project of the Key Research Base of the Ministry of Education,China(No.22JJD790012).
文摘We investigate the causal relationship between foreign ownership and international trade performance by comparing foreign-acquired firms with similar domestic-acquired firms in China with regard to changes in their post-acquisition international trade performance.Our findings indicate that foreign ownership significantly enhanced the probability of both exporting and importing,and strongly increased trade value.Foreign ownership took effect from the year of the acquisition and persisted for at least 2 years.It stimulated both processing trade and ordinary trade,and expanded products and trading partners.Post-acquisition trade performance also exhibited heterogeneity based on the different pre-acquisition and post-acquisition ownership.As for the underlying mechanisms,we show that firms experienced significant output expansion,increased export dependence,and eased financial constraints after foreign acquisition.
文摘Based on the theory of technology spillover in international trade, this paper discusses the technological innovation effect of trade by taking the influence of domestic trade into account. Under the constraint of the production possibility frontier, there is either complementarity or substitutability between domestic and foreign trade. It must be decided whether resources should be concentrated in one of the sectors （trade specialization） or instead allocated equally （trade equalization） between the two sectors. This paper firstly discusses how domestic trade and foreign trade work together to influence technological innovation, and how trade equalization and specialization affect different types of innovation. Using a provincial-level panel dataset from 2007 to 2015 in China, this paper constructs the indicators of domestic and foreign trade linkage and examines the impact of trade on innovation. The findings show that trade equalization mainly promotes incremental innovation, while trade specialization improves radical innovation. Thus, in the area of incremental innovation, attention should be paid to the equalized development of domestic and foreign trade, while in areas pursuing radical innovation, emphasis should be put on the specialization of the trade sector, avoiding equal allocation of resources to the two sectors.
文摘Since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, China＇s foreign trade has continued to grow faster than international trade, but its drivers are now different from those prevailing before. The participation of the Chinese economy in the global production chains through processing activities is no longer the main driver of its trade performance. The new driving force of change is ordinary trade, based mainly on local inputs and domestic demand. China, which played a major role in the globalization process as an export base for multinational companies, is now shifting to having a ＂＇normal＇foreign trade system, which is more closely integrated into the domestic economy.
