Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural c...Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.展开更多
China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21.Additionally,the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity...China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21.Additionally,the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity during the first half of the season in the western North Pacific(WNP).Sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific,Indian,and Atlantic Oceans all contributed to the heavy rainfall in China,but the Atlantic and Indian Oceans seem to have played dominant roles.Enhancement and movement of the Siberian High caused a wavier pattern in the jet stream that allowed cold polar air to reach southward,inducing cold surges in China.Large vertical wind shear and low humidity in the WNP were responsible for fewer typhoons in the first half of the typhoon season.Although it is known that global warming can increase the frequency of extreme weather and climate events,its influences on individual events still need to be quantified.Additionally,the extreme cold surge during 16–18 February 2021 in the United States shares similar mechanisms with the winter 2020/21 extreme cold surges in China.展开更多
The variations of extreme climate events such as cold wave, typhoon, hot and cold days have been discussed using the recent 45-year data. The reductions of nationwide cold wave activities and annual cold day number in...The variations of extreme climate events such as cold wave, typhoon, hot and cold days have been discussed using the recent 45-year data. The reductions of nationwide cold wave activities and annual cold day number in northern China all have close relationship with warming winters, especially during 1980s and early 1990s. Decrements of annual hot day number are associated with cooling summers. The typhoon variation has connection with the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature conditions. The increments of drought/flood events since 1980s may be connected indirectly with climate warming up significantly since 1980s. The climate variability of these extreme climate events has decreased with time since 1980s.展开更多
Climatic change and its effect on food production are an urgent problem faced by all countries now and on. Historical data correlating climatic fluctuation and food production will shed much light on the consideration...Climatic change and its effect on food production are an urgent problem faced by all countries now and on. Historical data correlating climatic fluctuation and food production will shed much light on the consideration of future food problems. In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the climatic fluctuation during the Little Ice Age (1430—1850 AD) in Guangdong Province, and to discuss how it affected food production and caused cyclic fluctuation of famines and bumper harvests.展开更多
文摘Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41731173)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2019YFA0606701)+2 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.XDB42000000 and XDA20060502)the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou)(Grant No.GML2019ZD0306)the Innovation Academy of South China Sea Ecology and Environmental Engineering,the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.ISEE2018PY06)。
文摘China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21.Additionally,the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity during the first half of the season in the western North Pacific(WNP).Sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific,Indian,and Atlantic Oceans all contributed to the heavy rainfall in China,but the Atlantic and Indian Oceans seem to have played dominant roles.Enhancement and movement of the Siberian High caused a wavier pattern in the jet stream that allowed cold polar air to reach southward,inducing cold surges in China.Large vertical wind shear and low humidity in the WNP were responsible for fewer typhoons in the first half of the typhoon season.Although it is known that global warming can increase the frequency of extreme weather and climate events,its influences on individual events still need to be quantified.Additionally,the extreme cold surge during 16–18 February 2021 in the United States shares similar mechanisms with the winter 2020/21 extreme cold surges in China.
文摘The variations of extreme climate events such as cold wave, typhoon, hot and cold days have been discussed using the recent 45-year data. The reductions of nationwide cold wave activities and annual cold day number in northern China all have close relationship with warming winters, especially during 1980s and early 1990s. Decrements of annual hot day number are associated with cooling summers. The typhoon variation has connection with the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature conditions. The increments of drought/flood events since 1980s may be connected indirectly with climate warming up significantly since 1980s. The climate variability of these extreme climate events has decreased with time since 1980s.
文摘Climatic change and its effect on food production are an urgent problem faced by all countries now and on. Historical data correlating climatic fluctuation and food production will shed much light on the consideration of future food problems. In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the climatic fluctuation during the Little Ice Age (1430—1850 AD) in Guangdong Province, and to discuss how it affected food production and caused cyclic fluctuation of famines and bumper harvests.
