The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Lium...The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Liuma microphysics scheme are compared with observations and those simulated with a commonly-used microphysics scheme(WSM6). Results show that using different microphysics schemes does not significantly alter the track of the typhoon but does significantly affect the intensity and the cloud structure of the typhoon. Results also show that the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometeors and the horizontal distribution of peripheral rainband are affected by the microphysics scheme. The mixing ratios of rain water and graupel correlate highly with the vertical velocity component and equivalent potential temperature at the typhoon eye-wall region. According to the simulation with WSM 6 scheme,it is likely that the very low typhoon central pressure results from the positive feedback between hydrometeors and typhoon intensity. As the ice-phase hydrometeors are mostly graupel in the Liuma microphysics scheme, further improvement in this aspect is required.展开更多
A new method for driving a One-Dimensional Stratiform Cold (1DSC) cloud model with Weather Research and Fore casting (WRF) model outputs was developed by conducting numerical experiments for a typical large-scale ...A new method for driving a One-Dimensional Stratiform Cold (1DSC) cloud model with Weather Research and Fore casting (WRF) model outputs was developed by conducting numerical experiments for a typical large-scale stratiform rainfall event that took place on 4-5 July 2004 in Changchun, China. Sensitivity test results suggested that, with hydrometeor pro files extracted from the WRF outputs as the initial input, and with continuous updating of soundings and vertical velocities (including downdraft) derived from the WRF model, the new WRF-driven 1DSC modeling system (WRF-1DSC) was able to successfully reproduce both the generation and dissipation processes of the precipitation event. The simulated rainfall intensity showed a time-lag behind that observed, which could have been caused by simulation errors of soundings, vertical velocities and hydrometeor profiles in the WRF output. Taking into consideration the simulated and observed movement path of the precipitation system, a nearby grid point was found to possess more accurate environmental fields in terms of their similarity to those observed in Changchun Station. Using profiles from this nearby grid point, WRF-1DSC was able to repro duce a realistic precipitation pattern. This study demonstrates that 1D cloud-seeding models do indeed have the potential to predict realistic precipitation patterns when properly driven by accurate atmospheric profiles derived from a regional short range forecasting system, This opens a novel and important approach to developing an ensemble-based rain enhancement prediction and operation system under a probabilistic framework concept.展开更多
Sensitivity analysis(SA) has been widely used to screen out a small number of sensitive parameters for model outputs from all adjustable parameters in weather and climate models, helping to improve model predictions b...Sensitivity analysis(SA) has been widely used to screen out a small number of sensitive parameters for model outputs from all adjustable parameters in weather and climate models, helping to improve model predictions by tuning the parameters. However, most parametric SA studies have focused on a single SA method and a single model output evaluation function, which makes the screened sensitive parameters less comprehensive. In addition, qualitative SA methods are often used because simulations using complex weather and climate models are time-consuming. Unlike previous SA studies, this research has systematically evaluated the sensitivity of parameters that affect precipitation and temperature simulations in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model using both qualitative and quantitative global SA methods. In the SA studies, multiple model output evaluation functions were used to conduct various SA experiments for precipitation and temperature. The results showed that five parameters(P3, P5, P7, P10, and P16) had the greatest effect on precipitation simulation results and that two parameters(P7 and P10) had the greatest effect for temperature. Using quantitative SA, the two-way interactive effect between P7 and P10 was also found to be important, especially for precipitation. The microphysics scheme had more sensitive parameters for precipitation, and P10(the multiplier for saturated soil water content) was the most sensitive parameter for both precipitation and temperature. From the ensemble simulations, preliminary results indicated that the precipitation and temperature simulation accuracies could be improved by tuning the respective sensitive parameter values, especially for simulations of moderate and heavy rain.展开更多
This paper presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based approach to predict crucial meteorological parameters such as temperature,pressure,and wind speed,typically calculated from computationally intensive weat...This paper presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based approach to predict crucial meteorological parameters such as temperature,pressure,and wind speed,typically calculated from computationally intensive weather research and forecasting (WRF) model.Accurate meteorological data is indispensable for simulating the release of radioactive effluents,especially in dispersion modeling for nuclear emergency decision support systems.Simulation of meteorological conditions during nuclear emergencies using the conventional WRF model is very complex and time-consuming.Therefore,a new artificial neural network (ANN) based technique was proposed as a viable alternative for meteorological prediction.A multi-input multi-output neural network was trained using historical site-specific meteorological data to forecast the meteorological parameters.Comprehensive evaluation of this technique was conducted to test its performance in forecasting various parameters including atmospheric pressure,temperature,and wind speed components in both East-West and North-South directions.The performance of developed network was evaluated on an unknown dataset,and acquired results are within the acceptable range for all meteorological parameters.Results show that ANNs possess the capability to forecast meteorological parameters,such as temperature and pressure,at multiple spatial locations within a grid with high accuracy,utilizing input data from a single station.However,accuracy is slightly compromised when predicting wind speed components.Root mean square error (RMSE) was utilized to report the accuracy of predicted results,with values of 1.453℃for temperature,77 Pa for predicted pressure,1.058 m/s for the wind speed of U-component and 0.959 m/s for the wind speed of V-component.In conclusion,this approach offers a precise,efficient,and wellinformed method for administrative decision-making during nuclear emergencies.展开更多
The WRF-lake vertically one-dimensional(1D)water temperature model,as a submodule of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)system,is being widely used to investigate water-atmosphere interactions.But previous appli...The WRF-lake vertically one-dimensional(1D)water temperature model,as a submodule of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)system,is being widely used to investigate water-atmosphere interactions.But previous applications revealed that it cannot accurately simulate the water temperature in a deep riverine reservoir during a large flow rate period,and whether it can produce sufficiently accurate heat flux through the water surface of deep riverine reservoirs remains uncertain.In this study,the WRF-lake model was improved for applications in large,deep riverine reservoirs by parametric scheme optimization,and the accuracy of heat flux calculation was evaluated compared with the results of a better physically based model,the Delft3D-Flow,which was previously applied to different kinds of reservoirs successfully.The results show:(1)The latest version of WRF-lake can describe the surface water temperature to some extent but performs poorly in the large flow period.We revised WRF-lake by modifying the vertical thermal diffusivity,and then,the water temperature simulation in the large flow period was improved significantly.(2)The latest version of WRF-lake overestimates the reservoir-atmosphere heat exchange throughout the year,mainly because of underestimating the downward energy transfer in the reservoir,resulting in more heat remaining at the surface and returning to the atmosphere.The modification of vertical thermal diffusivity can improve the surface heat flux calculation significantly.(3)The longitudinal temperature variation and the temperature difference between inflow and outflow,which cannot be considered in the 1D WRF-lake,can also affect the water surface heat flux.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to analyze characters of solar energy in photo- voltaic power stations in Shandong Province. [Method] The models of total solar radiation and scattered radiation were determined, and solar ener...[Objective] The aim was to analyze characters of solar energy in photo- voltaic power stations in Shandong Province. [Method] The models of total solar radiation and scattered radiation were determined, and solar energy resources in pho-tovoltaic power stations were evaluated based on illumination in horizontal plane and cloud data in 123 counties or cities and observed information in Jinan, Fushan and Juxian in 1988-2008. [Result] Solar energy in northern regions in Shandong proved most abundant, which is suitable for photovoltaic power generation; the optimal angle of tilt of photovoltaic array was at 35°, decreasing by 2°-3° compared with local latitude. Total solar radiation received by the slope with optimal angle of tilt exceeded 1 600 kw.h/(m2.a), increasing by 16% compared with horizontal planes. The maximal irradiance concluded by WRF in different regions tended to be volatile in 1 020-1 060 W/m2. [Conclusion] The research provides references for construction of photovoltaic power stations in Shandong Province.展开更多
Two intense quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems(QLMCSs) in northern China were simulated using the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model and the 3D-Var(three-dimensional variational) analysis system ...Two intense quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems(QLMCSs) in northern China were simulated using the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model and the 3D-Var(three-dimensional variational) analysis system of the ARPS(Advanced Regional Prediction System) model.A new method in which the lightning density is calculated using both the precipitation and non-precipitation ice mass was developed to reveal the relationship between the lightning activities and QLMCS structures.Results indicate that,compared with calculating the results using two previous methods,the lightning density calculated using the new method presented in this study is in better accordance with observations.Based on the calculated lightning densities using the new method,it was found that most lightning activity was initiated on the right side and at the front of the QLMCSs,where the surface wind field converged intensely.The CAPE was much stronger ahead of the southeastward progressing QLMCS than to the back it,and their lightning events mainly occurred in regions with a large gradient of CAPE.Comparisons between lightning and non-lightning regions indicated that lightning regions featured more intense ascending motion than non-lightning regions;the vertical ranges of maximum reflectivity between lightning and non-lightning regions were very different;and the ice mixing ratio featured no significant differences between the lightning and non-lightning regions.展开更多
Using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with two different microphysics schemes,the Predicted Particle Properties(P3)and the Morrison double-moment parameterizations,we simulated a stratiform rainfall eve...Using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with two different microphysics schemes,the Predicted Particle Properties(P3)and the Morrison double-moment parameterizations,we simulated a stratiform rainfall event on 20–21 April 2010.The simulation output was compared with precipitation and aircraft observations.The aircraft-observed moderate-rimed dendrites and plates indicated that riming contributed significantly to ice particle growth at the mature precipitation stage.Observations of dendrite aggregation and capped columns suggested that aggregation coexisted with deposition or riming and played an important role in producing many large particles.The domain-averaged values of the 24-h surface precipitation accumulation from the two schemes were quite close to each other.However,differences existed in the temporal and spatial evolutions of the precipitation distribution.An analysis of the surface precipitation temporal evolution indicated faster precipitation in Morrison,while P3 indicated slower rainfall by shifting the precipitation pattern eastward toward what was observed.The differences in precipitation values between the two schemes were related to the cloud water content distribution and fall speeds of rimed particles.P3 simulated the stratiform precipitation event better as it captured the gradual transition in the mass-weighted fall speeds and densities from unrimed to rimed particles.展开更多
We used a weather research and forecasting model to simulate a torrential rainstorm that occurred in Xinjiang,China during June 16–17,2016.The model successfully simulated the rainfall area,precipitation intensity,an...We used a weather research and forecasting model to simulate a torrential rainstorm that occurred in Xinjiang,China during June 16–17,2016.The model successfully simulated the rainfall area,precipitation intensity,and changes in precipitation.We identified a clear wave signal using the two-dimensional fast Fourier transform method;the waves propagated westwards,with wavelengths of 45–20 km,periods of 50–120 min,and phase velocities mainly concentrated in the-25 m/s to-10 m/s range.The results of wavelet cross-spectral analysis further confirmed that the waves were gravity waves,peaking at 11:00 UTC,June 17,2016.The gravity wave signal was identified along 79.17–79.93°E,81.35–81.45°E and 81.5–81.83°E.The gravity waves detected along 81.5–81.83°E corresponded well with precipitation that accumulated in 1 h,indicating that gravity waves could be considered a rainstorm precursor in future precipitation forecasts.展开更多
Accurate estimates of precipitation are fundamental for hydrometeorological and ecohydrological studies,but are more difficult in high mountainous areas because of the high elevation and complex terrain.This study com...Accurate estimates of precipitation are fundamental for hydrometeorological and ecohydrological studies,but are more difficult in high mountainous areas because of the high elevation and complex terrain.This study compares and evaluates two kinds of precipitation datasets,the reanalysis product downscaled by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)output,and the satellite product,the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA)product,as well as their bias-corrected datasets in the Middle Qilian Mountain in Northwest China.Results show that the WRF output with finer resolution perfonns well in both estimating precipitation and hydrological simulation,while the TMPA product is unreliable in high mountainous areas.Moreover,bias-corrected WRF output also performs better than bias-corrected TMPA product.Combined with the previous studies,atmospheric reanalysis datasets are more suitable than the satellite products in high mountainous areas.Climate is more important than altitude for the\falseAlarms'events of the TRMM product.Designed to focus on the tropical areas,the TMPA product mistakes certain meteorological situations for precipitation in subhumid and semiarid areas,thus causing significant"falseAlarms"events and leading to significant overestimations and unreliable performance.Simple linear bias correction method,only removing systematical errors,can significantly improves the accuracy of both the WRF output and the TMPA product in arid high mountainous areas with data scarcity.Evaluated by hydrological simulations,the bias-corrected WRF output is more reliable than the gauge dataset.Thus,data merging of the WRF output and gauge observations would provide more reliable precipitation estimations in arid high mountainous areas.展开更多
The combined effects of global warming and the urban heat islands exacerbate the risk of urban heat stress. It is crucial to implement effective cooling measures in urban areas to improve the comfort of the thermal en...The combined effects of global warming and the urban heat islands exacerbate the risk of urban heat stress. It is crucial to implement effective cooling measures in urban areas to improve the comfort of the thermal environment. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF), coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model(UCM), was used to study the impact of heat mitigation strategies. In addition, a 5-km resolution land-cover dataset for China(ChinaLC), which is based on satellite remote sensing data, was adjusted and used, and 18 groups of numerical experiments were designed, to increase the albedo and vegetation fraction of roof/ground parameters. The experiments were conducted for four heatwave events that occurred in the summer of 2013 in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration of China. The simulated results demonstrated that, for the single roof/ground schemes, the mitigation effects were directly proportional to the albedo and greening. Among all the experimental schemes, the superposed schemes presented better cooling effects. For the ground greening scheme, with similar net radiation flux and latent heat flux, its storage heat was lower than that of the roof greening scheme, resulting in more energy flux into the atmosphere, and its daytime cooling effect was not as good as that of the roof greening scheme. In terms of human thermal comfort(HTC), the improvement achieved by the ground greening scheme was better than any other single roof/ground schemes, because the increase in the relative humidity was small. The comprehensive evaluation of the mitigation effects of different schemes on the thermal environment presented in this paper provides a theoretical basis for improving the urban environment through rational urban planning and construction.展开更多
Convection-permitting modeling allows us to understand mechanisms that influence rainfall in specific regions.However,microphysics parameterization(MP) and planetary boundary layer(PBL) schemes remain an important sou...Convection-permitting modeling allows us to understand mechanisms that influence rainfall in specific regions.However,microphysics parameterization(MP) and planetary boundary layer(PBL) schemes remain an important source of uncertainty,affecting rainfall intensity,occurrence,duration,and propagation.Here,we study the sensitivity of rainfall to three MP [Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) Single-Moment 6-class(WSM6),Thompson,and Morrison] and two PBL [the Yonsei University(YSU) and Mellor–Yamada Nakanishi Niino(MYNN)] schemes with a convection-permitting resolution(4 km) over northwestern South America(NWSA).Simulations were performed by using the WRF model and the results were evaluated against soundings,rain gauges,and satellite data,considering the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over diverse regions prone to deep convection in NWSA.MP and PBL schemes largely influenced simulated rainfall,with better results for the less computationally expensive WSM6 MP and YSU PBL schemes.Regarding rain gauges and satellite estimates,simulations with Morrison MP overestimated rainfall,especially westward of the Andes,whereas the MYNN PBL underestimated precipitation in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands.We found that the uncertainty in the rainfall representation is highly dependent on the region,with a higher influence of MP in the Colombian Pacific and PBL in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands.When analyzing rainfall-related processes,the selection of both MP and PBL parameterizations exerted a large influence on the simulated lower tropospheric moisture flux and moisture convergence.PBL schemes significantly influenced the downward shortwave radiation,with MYNN simulating a greater amount of low clouds,which decreased the radiation income.Furthermore,latent heat fluxes were greater for YSU,favoring moist convection and rainfall.MP schemes had a marked impact on vertical velocity.Specifically,Morrison MP showed stronger convection and higher precipitation rates,which is associated with a greater latent heat release due to solid-phase hydrometeor formation.This study provides insights into assessing physical parameterizations in numerical models and suggests key processes for rainfall representation in NWSA.展开更多
Microwave radiometer(MWR) demonstrates exceptional efficacy in monitoring the atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles.A typical inversion algorithm for MWR involves the use of radiosonde measurements as the trai...Microwave radiometer(MWR) demonstrates exceptional efficacy in monitoring the atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles.A typical inversion algorithm for MWR involves the use of radiosonde measurements as the training dataset.However,this is challenging due to limitations in the temporal and spatial resolution of available sounding data,which often results in a lack of coincident data with MWR deployment locations.Our study proposes an alternative approach to overcome these limitations by harnessing the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model's renowned simulation capabilities,which offer high temporal and spatial resolution.By using WRF simulations that collocate with the MWR deployment location as a substitute for radiosonde measurements or reanalysis data,our study effectively mitigates the limitations associated with mismatching of MWR measurements and the sites,which enables reliable MWR retrieval in diverse geographical settings.Different machine learning(ML) algorithms including extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost),random forest(RF),light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM),extra trees(ET),and backpropagation neural network(BPNN) are tested by using WRF simulations,among which BPNN appears as the most superior,achieving an accuracy with a root-mean-square error(RMSE) of 2.05 K for temperature,0.67 g m~(-3) for water vapor density(WVD),and 13.98% for relative humidity(RH).Comparisons of temperature,RH,and WVD retrievals between our algorithm and the sounding-trained(RAD) algorithm indicate that our algorithm remarkably outperforms the latter.This study verifies the feasibility of utilizing WRF simulations for developing MWR inversion algorithms,thus opening up new possibilities for MWR deployment and airborne observations in global locations.展开更多
The research of coupling WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) with a land surface model is enhanced to explore the interaction of the atmosphere and land surface; however, regional applicability of WRF model...The research of coupling WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) with a land surface model is enhanced to explore the interaction of the atmosphere and land surface; however, regional applicability of WRF model is questioned. In order to do the validation of WRF model on simulating forcing data for the Heihe River Basin, daily meteorological observation data from 15 stations of CMA (China Meteorological Administration) and hourly meteorological observation data from seven sites of WATER (Watershed Airborne Telemetry Experimental Research) are used to compare with WRF simulations, with a time range of a whole year for 2008. Results show that the average MBE (Mean Bias Error) of daily 2-m surface temperature, surface pressure, 2-m relative humidity and 10-m wind speed were -0.19 ℃, -4.49 hPa, 4.08% and 0.92 m/s, the average RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of them were 2.11 ℃, 5.37 hPa, 9.55% and 1.73 m/s, and the average R (correlation coefficient) of them were 0.99, 0.98, 0.80 and 0.55, respectively. The average MBE of hourly 2-m surface temperature, surface pressure, 2-m relative humidity, 10-m wind speed, downward shortwave radiation and downward longwave were-0.16 ℃,-6.62 hPa,-5.14%, 0.26 m/s, 33.0 W/m^2 and-6.44 W/m^2, the average RMSE of them were 2.62 ℃, 17.10 hPa, 20.71%, 2.46 m/s, 152.9 W/m^2 and 53.5 W/m^2, and the average R of them were 0.96, 0.97, 0.70, 0.26, 0.91 and 0.60, respectively. Thus, the following conclusions were obtained: (1) regardless of daily or hourly validation, WRF model simulations of 2-m surface temperature, surface pressure and relative humidity are more reliable, especially for 2-m surface air temperature and surface pressure, the values of MBE were small and R were more than 0.96; (2) the WRF simulating downward shortwave radiation was relatively good, the average R between WRF simulation and hourly observation data was above 0.9, and the average R of downward longwave radiation was 0.6; (3) both wind speed and rainfall simulated from WRF model did not agree well with observation data.展开更多
The relationship between the radar reflectivity factor (Z) and the rainfall rate (R) is recalculated based on radar ob- servations from 10 Doppler radars and hourly rainfall measurements at 6529 automatic weather ...The relationship between the radar reflectivity factor (Z) and the rainfall rate (R) is recalculated based on radar ob- servations from 10 Doppler radars and hourly rainfall measurements at 6529 automatic weather stations over the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin. The data were collected by the National 973 Project from June to July 2013 for severe convective weather events. The Z-R relationship is combined with an empirical qr-R relationship to obtain a new Z-qr relationship, which is then used to correct the observational operator for radar reflectivity in the three-dimensional variational (3DVar) data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to im-prove the analysis and prediction of severe convective weather over the Yangtze--Huaihe River basin. The perform- ance of the corrected reflectivity operator used in the WRF 3DVar data assimilation system is tested with a heavy rain event that occurred over Jiangsu and Anhui provinces and the surrounding regions on 23 June 2013. It is noted that the observations for this event are not included in the calculation of the Z-R relationship. Three experiments are conducted with the WRF model and its 3DVar system, including a control run without the assimilation of reflectivity data and two assimilation experiments with the original and corrected refleetivity operators. The experimental results show that the assimilation of radar reflectivity data has a positive impact on the rainfall forecast within a few hours with either the original or corrected reflectivity operators, but the corrected reflectivity operator achieves a better per-forrnance on the rainfall forecast than the original operator. The corrected reflectivity operator extends the effective time of radar data assimilation for the prediction of strong reflectivity. The physical variables analyzed with the corrected reflectivity operator present more reasonable mesoscale structures than those obtained with the original re-flectivity operator. This suggests that the new statistical Z-R relationship is more suitable for predicting severe con- vective weather over the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin than the Z-R relationships currently in use.展开更多
With economic development and rapid urbanization,increases in Gross Domestic Product and population in fastgrowing cities since the turn of the 21st Century have led to increases in energy consumption.Anthropogenic he...With economic development and rapid urbanization,increases in Gross Domestic Product and population in fastgrowing cities since the turn of the 21st Century have led to increases in energy consumption.Anthropogenic heat flux released to the near-surface atmosphere has led to changes in urban thermal environments and severe extreme temperature events.To investigate the effects of energy consumption on urban extreme temperature events,including extreme heat and cold events,a dynamic representation scheme of anthropogenic heat release(AHR)was implemented in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,and AHR data were developed based on energy consumption and population density in a case study of Beijing,China.Two simulations during 1999−2017 were then conducted using the developed WRF model with 3-km resolution with and without the AHR scheme.It was shown that the mean temperature increased with the increase in AHR,and more frequent extreme heat events were produced,with an annual increase of 0.02−0.19 days,as well as less frequent extreme cold events,with an annual decrease of 0.26−0.56 days,based on seven extreme temperature indices in the city center.AHR increased the sensible heat flux and led to surface energy budget changes,strengthening the dynamic processes in the atmospheric boundary layer that reduce AHR heating efficiency more in summer than in winter.In addition,it was concluded that suitable energy management might help to mitigate the impact of extreme temperature events in different seasons.展开更多
Land use data with building characteristics are important for modeling the impacts of urban morphology on local climate.In this study,an extreme heat event in Shanghai,China,was simulated by using a WRF/BEP+BEM(Weathe...Land use data with building characteristics are important for modeling the impacts of urban morphology on local climate.In this study,an extreme heat event in Shanghai,China,was simulated by using a WRF/BEP+BEM(Weather Research and Forecasting/Building Effect Parameterization+Building Energy Model)model.We incorporated local climate zone(LCZ)land use data that resolved urban morphology using 10 classes of building parameters.The simulation was compared to a control case based on MODIS(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)land use data.The findings are as follows:(1)the LCZ data performed better than the MODIS data for simulating 10-m wind speed.An increase in building height led to the wind speed to decrease by 0.6-1.4 m s^(-1)in the daytime and by 0.2-0.7 m s^(-1)at nighttime.(2)High-rise buildings warmed the air by trapping radiation in the urban canyon.This warming effect was partially offset by the cooling effect of building shadows in the day.As a result,the 2-m temperature increased by 0.8℃ at night but only by 0.4℃ during the day.(3)Heterogeneous urban surfaces increased the 50-m turbulent kinetic energy by 0.4 m^(2) s^(-2),decreased the 10-m wind speed by 1.8 m s^(-1)in the daytime,increased the surface net radiation by 45.1 W m^(2)-,and increased the 2-m temperature by 1.5℃ at nighttime.(4)The LCZ data modified the atmospheric circulation between land and ocean.The shadowing effect reduced the air temperature differences between land and ocean and weakened the sea breeze.Moreover,high-rise buildings obstructed sea breezes,restricting their impact to a smaller portion(10 km along the wind direction)of inland areas compared to that with MODIS.展开更多
The weather research and forecasting(WRF) model is a new generation mesoscale numerical model with a fine grid resolution(2 km), making it ideal to simulate the macro-and micro-physical processes and latent heatin...The weather research and forecasting(WRF) model is a new generation mesoscale numerical model with a fine grid resolution(2 km), making it ideal to simulate the macro-and micro-physical processes and latent heating within Typhoon Molave(2009). Simulations based on a single-moment, six-class microphysical scheme are shown to be reasonable, following verification of results for the typhoon track, wind intensity, precipitation pattern, as well as inner-core thermodynamic and dynamic structures. After calculating latent heating rate, it is concluded that the total latent heat is mainly derived from condensation below the zero degree isotherm, and from deposition above this isotherm. It is revealed that cloud microphysical processes related to graupel are the most important contributors to the total latent heat. Other important latent heat contributors in the simulated Typhoon Molave are condensation of cloud water, deposition of cloud ice, deposition of snow, initiation of cloud ice crystals, deposition of graupel, accretion of cloud water by graupel, evaporation of cloud water and rainwater,sublimation of snow, sublimation of graupel, melting of graupel, and sublimation of cloud ice. In essence, the simulated latent heat profile is similar to ones recorded by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, although specific values differ slightly.展开更多
The Pearl River Delta(PRD)is one of the three urban agglomerations in China that have experienced rapid development.For this study,a core area of the PRD was identified,comprising the highly urbanized areas of Guangzh...The Pearl River Delta(PRD)is one of the three urban agglomerations in China that have experienced rapid development.For this study,a core area of the PRD was identified,comprising the highly urbanized areas of Guangzhou,Foshan,Zhongshan,Zhuhai,Shenzhen,and Dongguan Cities.The expansion of these urban areas was tracked across three time periods—the year population urbanization rate exceeded 70%(2000),18 years before(1982),and 18 years after(2018).This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model to explore summer rainfall changes across different urbanization periods in the PRD core area.The results show that urban land expansion mainly occurred in the post urbanization period.Rainfall changes acros s different urbanization periods were roughly consistent with previously observed spatial and temporal changes accompanying urban expansion in the PRD core area.Extreme rainfall mainly increased in the post urbanization period,shifting rainstorm center towards the PRD core area.Further causal analysis revealed that land use changes affected rainfall by altering thermodynamics and water vapor transfer.The urban expansion changed the surface energy balance,resulting in increased surface heating and heat island effects.The heat island effects thickened the planetary boundary layer and increased vertical wind speeds,which initiated dry island effects,thereby causing more water vapor transportation to the atmosphere.Consequently,rainstorms and extreme rainfall events have become concentrated in urban areas.展开更多
基金Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2017YFC1501406)National Key Research and Development Plan Program of China(2017YFA0604500)CMA Youth Founding Program(Q201706&NWPC-QNJJ-201702)
文摘The basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Nida(2016) are simulated using a new microphysics scheme(Liuma) within the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. Typhoon characteristics simulated with the Liuma microphysics scheme are compared with observations and those simulated with a commonly-used microphysics scheme(WSM6). Results show that using different microphysics schemes does not significantly alter the track of the typhoon but does significantly affect the intensity and the cloud structure of the typhoon. Results also show that the vertical distribution of cloud hydrometeors and the horizontal distribution of peripheral rainband are affected by the microphysics scheme. The mixing ratios of rain water and graupel correlate highly with the vertical velocity component and equivalent potential temperature at the typhoon eye-wall region. According to the simulation with WSM 6 scheme,it is likely that the very low typhoon central pressure results from the positive feedback between hydrometeors and typhoon intensity. As the ice-phase hydrometeors are mostly graupel in the Liuma microphysics scheme, further improvement in this aspect is required.
基金jointly supported by the Main Direction Program of Knowledge Innovation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KZCX2EW203)the National Key Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430105)the National Department of Public Benefit Research Foundation(Grant No.GYHY201006031)
文摘A new method for driving a One-Dimensional Stratiform Cold (1DSC) cloud model with Weather Research and Fore casting (WRF) model outputs was developed by conducting numerical experiments for a typical large-scale stratiform rainfall event that took place on 4-5 July 2004 in Changchun, China. Sensitivity test results suggested that, with hydrometeor pro files extracted from the WRF outputs as the initial input, and with continuous updating of soundings and vertical velocities (including downdraft) derived from the WRF model, the new WRF-driven 1DSC modeling system (WRF-1DSC) was able to successfully reproduce both the generation and dissipation processes of the precipitation event. The simulated rainfall intensity showed a time-lag behind that observed, which could have been caused by simulation errors of soundings, vertical velocities and hydrometeor profiles in the WRF output. Taking into consideration the simulated and observed movement path of the precipitation system, a nearby grid point was found to possess more accurate environmental fields in terms of their similarity to those observed in Changchun Station. Using profiles from this nearby grid point, WRF-1DSC was able to repro duce a realistic precipitation pattern. This study demonstrates that 1D cloud-seeding models do indeed have the potential to predict realistic precipitation patterns when properly driven by accurate atmospheric profiles derived from a regional short range forecasting system, This opens a novel and important approach to developing an ensemble-based rain enhancement prediction and operation system under a probabilistic framework concept.
基金supported by the Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY201506002, CRA40: 40-year CMA global atmospheric reanalysis)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2015CB953703)+1 种基金the Intergovernmental Key International S & T Innovation Cooperation Program (Grant No. 2016YFE0102400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41305052 & 41375139)
文摘Sensitivity analysis(SA) has been widely used to screen out a small number of sensitive parameters for model outputs from all adjustable parameters in weather and climate models, helping to improve model predictions by tuning the parameters. However, most parametric SA studies have focused on a single SA method and a single model output evaluation function, which makes the screened sensitive parameters less comprehensive. In addition, qualitative SA methods are often used because simulations using complex weather and climate models are time-consuming. Unlike previous SA studies, this research has systematically evaluated the sensitivity of parameters that affect precipitation and temperature simulations in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model using both qualitative and quantitative global SA methods. In the SA studies, multiple model output evaluation functions were used to conduct various SA experiments for precipitation and temperature. The results showed that five parameters(P3, P5, P7, P10, and P16) had the greatest effect on precipitation simulation results and that two parameters(P7 and P10) had the greatest effect for temperature. Using quantitative SA, the two-way interactive effect between P7 and P10 was also found to be important, especially for precipitation. The microphysics scheme had more sensitive parameters for precipitation, and P10(the multiplier for saturated soil water content) was the most sensitive parameter for both precipitation and temperature. From the ensemble simulations, preliminary results indicated that the precipitation and temperature simulation accuracies could be improved by tuning the respective sensitive parameter values, especially for simulations of moderate and heavy rain.
文摘This paper presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) based approach to predict crucial meteorological parameters such as temperature,pressure,and wind speed,typically calculated from computationally intensive weather research and forecasting (WRF) model.Accurate meteorological data is indispensable for simulating the release of radioactive effluents,especially in dispersion modeling for nuclear emergency decision support systems.Simulation of meteorological conditions during nuclear emergencies using the conventional WRF model is very complex and time-consuming.Therefore,a new artificial neural network (ANN) based technique was proposed as a viable alternative for meteorological prediction.A multi-input multi-output neural network was trained using historical site-specific meteorological data to forecast the meteorological parameters.Comprehensive evaluation of this technique was conducted to test its performance in forecasting various parameters including atmospheric pressure,temperature,and wind speed components in both East-West and North-South directions.The performance of developed network was evaluated on an unknown dataset,and acquired results are within the acceptable range for all meteorological parameters.Results show that ANNs possess the capability to forecast meteorological parameters,such as temperature and pressure,at multiple spatial locations within a grid with high accuracy,utilizing input data from a single station.However,accuracy is slightly compromised when predicting wind speed components.Root mean square error (RMSE) was utilized to report the accuracy of predicted results,with values of 1.453℃for temperature,77 Pa for predicted pressure,1.058 m/s for the wind speed of U-component and 0.959 m/s for the wind speed of V-component.In conclusion,this approach offers a precise,efficient,and wellinformed method for administrative decision-making during nuclear emergencies.
基金the financial support from the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2018YFE0196000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52179069)。
文摘The WRF-lake vertically one-dimensional(1D)water temperature model,as a submodule of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)system,is being widely used to investigate water-atmosphere interactions.But previous applications revealed that it cannot accurately simulate the water temperature in a deep riverine reservoir during a large flow rate period,and whether it can produce sufficiently accurate heat flux through the water surface of deep riverine reservoirs remains uncertain.In this study,the WRF-lake model was improved for applications in large,deep riverine reservoirs by parametric scheme optimization,and the accuracy of heat flux calculation was evaluated compared with the results of a better physically based model,the Delft3D-Flow,which was previously applied to different kinds of reservoirs successfully.The results show:(1)The latest version of WRF-lake can describe the surface water temperature to some extent but performs poorly in the large flow period.We revised WRF-lake by modifying the vertical thermal diffusivity,and then,the water temperature simulation in the large flow period was improved significantly.(2)The latest version of WRF-lake overestimates the reservoir-atmosphere heat exchange throughout the year,mainly because of underestimating the downward energy transfer in the reservoir,resulting in more heat remaining at the surface and returning to the atmosphere.The modification of vertical thermal diffusivity can improve the surface heat flux calculation significantly.(3)The longitudinal temperature variation and the temperature difference between inflow and outflow,which cannot be considered in the 1D WRF-lake,can also affect the water surface heat flux.
基金Supported by Shandong Meteorological Bureau Key Project (2010sdqxj105)~~
文摘[Objective] The aim was to analyze characters of solar energy in photo- voltaic power stations in Shandong Province. [Method] The models of total solar radiation and scattered radiation were determined, and solar energy resources in pho-tovoltaic power stations were evaluated based on illumination in horizontal plane and cloud data in 123 counties or cities and observed information in Jinan, Fushan and Juxian in 1988-2008. [Result] Solar energy in northern regions in Shandong proved most abundant, which is suitable for photovoltaic power generation; the optimal angle of tilt of photovoltaic array was at 35°, decreasing by 2°-3° compared with local latitude. Total solar radiation received by the slope with optimal angle of tilt exceeded 1 600 kw.h/(m2.a), increasing by 16% compared with horizontal planes. The maximal irradiance concluded by WRF in different regions tended to be volatile in 1 020-1 060 W/m2. [Conclusion] The research provides references for construction of photovoltaic power stations in Shandong Province.
基金supported jointly by the National Key Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (Grant No. 2014CB441401)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41405007, 41175043, 41475002, and 41205027)
文摘Two intense quasi-linear mesoscale convective systems(QLMCSs) in northern China were simulated using the WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model and the 3D-Var(three-dimensional variational) analysis system of the ARPS(Advanced Regional Prediction System) model.A new method in which the lightning density is calculated using both the precipitation and non-precipitation ice mass was developed to reveal the relationship between the lightning activities and QLMCS structures.Results indicate that,compared with calculating the results using two previous methods,the lightning density calculated using the new method presented in this study is in better accordance with observations.Based on the calculated lightning densities using the new method,it was found that most lightning activity was initiated on the right side and at the front of the QLMCSs,where the surface wind field converged intensely.The CAPE was much stronger ahead of the southeastward progressing QLMCS than to the back it,and their lightning events mainly occurred in regions with a large gradient of CAPE.Comparisons between lightning and non-lightning regions indicated that lightning regions featured more intense ascending motion than non-lightning regions;the vertical ranges of maximum reflectivity between lightning and non-lightning regions were very different;and the ice mixing ratio featured no significant differences between the lightning and non-lightning regions.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1507900)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41575131, 41530427 and 41875172)
文摘Using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with two different microphysics schemes,the Predicted Particle Properties(P3)and the Morrison double-moment parameterizations,we simulated a stratiform rainfall event on 20–21 April 2010.The simulation output was compared with precipitation and aircraft observations.The aircraft-observed moderate-rimed dendrites and plates indicated that riming contributed significantly to ice particle growth at the mature precipitation stage.Observations of dendrite aggregation and capped columns suggested that aggregation coexisted with deposition or riming and played an important role in producing many large particles.The domain-averaged values of the 24-h surface precipitation accumulation from the two schemes were quite close to each other.However,differences existed in the temporal and spatial evolutions of the precipitation distribution.An analysis of the surface precipitation temporal evolution indicated faster precipitation in Morrison,while P3 indicated slower rainfall by shifting the precipitation pattern eastward toward what was observed.The differences in precipitation values between the two schemes were related to the cloud water content distribution and fall speeds of rimed particles.P3 simulated the stratiform precipitation event better as it captured the gradual transition in the mass-weighted fall speeds and densities from unrimed to rimed particles.
基金Project supported by China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201406002)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41575065 and 41405049)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation International Cooperation Project,China(Grant No.41661144024)Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA17010100)
文摘We used a weather research and forecasting model to simulate a torrential rainstorm that occurred in Xinjiang,China during June 16–17,2016.The model successfully simulated the rainfall area,precipitation intensity,and changes in precipitation.We identified a clear wave signal using the two-dimensional fast Fourier transform method;the waves propagated westwards,with wavelengths of 45–20 km,periods of 50–120 min,and phase velocities mainly concentrated in the-25 m/s to-10 m/s range.The results of wavelet cross-spectral analysis further confirmed that the waves were gravity waves,peaking at 11:00 UTC,June 17,2016.The gravity wave signal was identified along 79.17–79.93°E,81.35–81.45°E and 81.5–81.83°E.The gravity waves detected along 81.5–81.83°E corresponded well with precipitation that accumulated in 1 h,indicating that gravity waves could be considered a rainstorm precursor in future precipitation forecasts.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42030501,41877148,41501016,41530752)Scherer Endowment Fund of Department of Geography,Western Michigan University and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.lzujbky-2019-98)。
文摘Accurate estimates of precipitation are fundamental for hydrometeorological and ecohydrological studies,but are more difficult in high mountainous areas because of the high elevation and complex terrain.This study compares and evaluates two kinds of precipitation datasets,the reanalysis product downscaled by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)output,and the satellite product,the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA)product,as well as their bias-corrected datasets in the Middle Qilian Mountain in Northwest China.Results show that the WRF output with finer resolution perfonns well in both estimating precipitation and hydrological simulation,while the TMPA product is unreliable in high mountainous areas.Moreover,bias-corrected WRF output also performs better than bias-corrected TMPA product.Combined with the previous studies,atmospheric reanalysis datasets are more suitable than the satellite products in high mountainous areas.Climate is more important than altitude for the\falseAlarms'events of the TRMM product.Designed to focus on the tropical areas,the TMPA product mistakes certain meteorological situations for precipitation in subhumid and semiarid areas,thus causing significant"falseAlarms"events and leading to significant overestimations and unreliable performance.Simple linear bias correction method,only removing systematical errors,can significantly improves the accuracy of both the WRF output and the TMPA product in arid high mountainous areas with data scarcity.Evaluated by hydrological simulations,the bias-corrected WRF output is more reliable than the gauge dataset.Thus,data merging of the WRF output and gauge observations would provide more reliable precipitation estimations in arid high mountainous areas.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42021004 and 42175032)。
文摘The combined effects of global warming and the urban heat islands exacerbate the risk of urban heat stress. It is crucial to implement effective cooling measures in urban areas to improve the comfort of the thermal environment. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF), coupled with a single-layer Urban Canopy Model(UCM), was used to study the impact of heat mitigation strategies. In addition, a 5-km resolution land-cover dataset for China(ChinaLC), which is based on satellite remote sensing data, was adjusted and used, and 18 groups of numerical experiments were designed, to increase the albedo and vegetation fraction of roof/ground parameters. The experiments were conducted for four heatwave events that occurred in the summer of 2013 in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration of China. The simulated results demonstrated that, for the single roof/ground schemes, the mitigation effects were directly proportional to the albedo and greening. Among all the experimental schemes, the superposed schemes presented better cooling effects. For the ground greening scheme, with similar net radiation flux and latent heat flux, its storage heat was lower than that of the roof greening scheme, resulting in more energy flux into the atmosphere, and its daytime cooling effect was not as good as that of the roof greening scheme. In terms of human thermal comfort(HTC), the improvement achieved by the ground greening scheme was better than any other single roof/ground schemes, because the increase in the relative humidity was small. The comprehensive evaluation of the mitigation effects of different schemes on the thermal environment presented in this paper provides a theoretical basis for improving the urban environment through rational urban planning and construction.
基金Supported by the Patrimonio Autónomo Fondo Nacional de Financiamiento para la Ciencia,la Tecnología y la Innovación,Fondo Francisco Joséde Caldas from the Colombian Ministry of Science,Technology,and Innovation (MINCIENCIAS,1115-852-70955)Open Access funding provided by Colombia Consortium。
文摘Convection-permitting modeling allows us to understand mechanisms that influence rainfall in specific regions.However,microphysics parameterization(MP) and planetary boundary layer(PBL) schemes remain an important source of uncertainty,affecting rainfall intensity,occurrence,duration,and propagation.Here,we study the sensitivity of rainfall to three MP [Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) Single-Moment 6-class(WSM6),Thompson,and Morrison] and two PBL [the Yonsei University(YSU) and Mellor–Yamada Nakanishi Niino(MYNN)] schemes with a convection-permitting resolution(4 km) over northwestern South America(NWSA).Simulations were performed by using the WRF model and the results were evaluated against soundings,rain gauges,and satellite data,considering the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over diverse regions prone to deep convection in NWSA.MP and PBL schemes largely influenced simulated rainfall,with better results for the less computationally expensive WSM6 MP and YSU PBL schemes.Regarding rain gauges and satellite estimates,simulations with Morrison MP overestimated rainfall,especially westward of the Andes,whereas the MYNN PBL underestimated precipitation in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands.We found that the uncertainty in the rainfall representation is highly dependent on the region,with a higher influence of MP in the Colombian Pacific and PBL in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands.When analyzing rainfall-related processes,the selection of both MP and PBL parameterizations exerted a large influence on the simulated lower tropospheric moisture flux and moisture convergence.PBL schemes significantly influenced the downward shortwave radiation,with MYNN simulating a greater amount of low clouds,which decreased the radiation income.Furthermore,latent heat fluxes were greater for YSU,favoring moist convection and rainfall.MP schemes had a marked impact on vertical velocity.Specifically,Morrison MP showed stronger convection and higher precipitation rates,which is associated with a greater latent heat release due to solid-phase hydrometeor formation.This study provides insights into assessing physical parameterizations in numerical models and suggests key processes for rainfall representation in NWSA.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42175144)。
文摘Microwave radiometer(MWR) demonstrates exceptional efficacy in monitoring the atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles.A typical inversion algorithm for MWR involves the use of radiosonde measurements as the training dataset.However,this is challenging due to limitations in the temporal and spatial resolution of available sounding data,which often results in a lack of coincident data with MWR deployment locations.Our study proposes an alternative approach to overcome these limitations by harnessing the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model's renowned simulation capabilities,which offer high temporal and spatial resolution.By using WRF simulations that collocate with the MWR deployment location as a substitute for radiosonde measurements or reanalysis data,our study effectively mitigates the limitations associated with mismatching of MWR measurements and the sites,which enables reliable MWR retrieval in diverse geographical settings.Different machine learning(ML) algorithms including extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost),random forest(RF),light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM),extra trees(ET),and backpropagation neural network(BPNN) are tested by using WRF simulations,among which BPNN appears as the most superior,achieving an accuracy with a root-mean-square error(RMSE) of 2.05 K for temperature,0.67 g m~(-3) for water vapor density(WVD),and 13.98% for relative humidity(RH).Comparisons of temperature,RH,and WVD retrievals between our algorithm and the sounding-trained(RAD) algorithm indicate that our algorithm remarkably outperforms the latter.This study verifies the feasibility of utilizing WRF simulations for developing MWR inversion algorithms,thus opening up new possibilities for MWR deployment and airborne observations in global locations.
基金supported by grant from the National High Technology Research and Development Program (863) of China (Grant No.2009AA122104)grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40901202, No.40925004)+1 种基金supported by the CAS Action Plan for West Development Program (Grant No.KZCX2-XB2-09)Chinese State Key Basic Research Project (Grant No.2007CB714400)
文摘The research of coupling WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) with a land surface model is enhanced to explore the interaction of the atmosphere and land surface; however, regional applicability of WRF model is questioned. In order to do the validation of WRF model on simulating forcing data for the Heihe River Basin, daily meteorological observation data from 15 stations of CMA (China Meteorological Administration) and hourly meteorological observation data from seven sites of WATER (Watershed Airborne Telemetry Experimental Research) are used to compare with WRF simulations, with a time range of a whole year for 2008. Results show that the average MBE (Mean Bias Error) of daily 2-m surface temperature, surface pressure, 2-m relative humidity and 10-m wind speed were -0.19 ℃, -4.49 hPa, 4.08% and 0.92 m/s, the average RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of them were 2.11 ℃, 5.37 hPa, 9.55% and 1.73 m/s, and the average R (correlation coefficient) of them were 0.99, 0.98, 0.80 and 0.55, respectively. The average MBE of hourly 2-m surface temperature, surface pressure, 2-m relative humidity, 10-m wind speed, downward shortwave radiation and downward longwave were-0.16 ℃,-6.62 hPa,-5.14%, 0.26 m/s, 33.0 W/m^2 and-6.44 W/m^2, the average RMSE of them were 2.62 ℃, 17.10 hPa, 20.71%, 2.46 m/s, 152.9 W/m^2 and 53.5 W/m^2, and the average R of them were 0.96, 0.97, 0.70, 0.26, 0.91 and 0.60, respectively. Thus, the following conclusions were obtained: (1) regardless of daily or hourly validation, WRF model simulations of 2-m surface temperature, surface pressure and relative humidity are more reliable, especially for 2-m surface air temperature and surface pressure, the values of MBE were small and R were more than 0.96; (2) the WRF simulating downward shortwave radiation was relatively good, the average R between WRF simulation and hourly observation data was above 0.9, and the average R of downward longwave radiation was 0.6; (3) both wind speed and rainfall simulated from WRF model did not agree well with observation data.
基金Supported by the National(Key)Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2013CB430102)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41275102 and 41330527)
文摘The relationship between the radar reflectivity factor (Z) and the rainfall rate (R) is recalculated based on radar ob- servations from 10 Doppler radars and hourly rainfall measurements at 6529 automatic weather stations over the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin. The data were collected by the National 973 Project from June to July 2013 for severe convective weather events. The Z-R relationship is combined with an empirical qr-R relationship to obtain a new Z-qr relationship, which is then used to correct the observational operator for radar reflectivity in the three-dimensional variational (3DVar) data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to im-prove the analysis and prediction of severe convective weather over the Yangtze--Huaihe River basin. The perform- ance of the corrected reflectivity operator used in the WRF 3DVar data assimilation system is tested with a heavy rain event that occurred over Jiangsu and Anhui provinces and the surrounding regions on 23 June 2013. It is noted that the observations for this event are not included in the calculation of the Z-R relationship. Three experiments are conducted with the WRF model and its 3DVar system, including a control run without the assimilation of reflectivity data and two assimilation experiments with the original and corrected refleetivity operators. The experimental results show that the assimilation of radar reflectivity data has a positive impact on the rainfall forecast within a few hours with either the original or corrected reflectivity operators, but the corrected reflectivity operator achieves a better per-forrnance on the rainfall forecast than the original operator. The corrected reflectivity operator extends the effective time of radar data assimilation for the prediction of strong reflectivity. The physical variables analyzed with the corrected reflectivity operator present more reasonable mesoscale structures than those obtained with the original re-flectivity operator. This suggests that the new statistical Z-R relationship is more suitable for predicting severe con- vective weather over the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin than the Z-R relationships currently in use.
基金This work was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA23090102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41830967)+2 种基金the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.QYZDY-SSW-DQC012)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2018YFC1506602 and 2020YFA0608203)We also thank the National Meteorological Information Center,China Meteorological Administration,for data support.
文摘With economic development and rapid urbanization,increases in Gross Domestic Product and population in fastgrowing cities since the turn of the 21st Century have led to increases in energy consumption.Anthropogenic heat flux released to the near-surface atmosphere has led to changes in urban thermal environments and severe extreme temperature events.To investigate the effects of energy consumption on urban extreme temperature events,including extreme heat and cold events,a dynamic representation scheme of anthropogenic heat release(AHR)was implemented in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,and AHR data were developed based on energy consumption and population density in a case study of Beijing,China.Two simulations during 1999−2017 were then conducted using the developed WRF model with 3-km resolution with and without the AHR scheme.It was shown that the mean temperature increased with the increase in AHR,and more frequent extreme heat events were produced,with an annual increase of 0.02−0.19 days,as well as less frequent extreme cold events,with an annual decrease of 0.26−0.56 days,based on seven extreme temperature indices in the city center.AHR increased the sensible heat flux and led to surface energy budget changes,strengthening the dynamic processes in the atmospheric boundary layer that reduce AHR heating efficiency more in summer than in winter.In addition,it was concluded that suitable energy management might help to mitigate the impact of extreme temperature events in different seasons.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41875059 and 41675016)。
文摘Land use data with building characteristics are important for modeling the impacts of urban morphology on local climate.In this study,an extreme heat event in Shanghai,China,was simulated by using a WRF/BEP+BEM(Weather Research and Forecasting/Building Effect Parameterization+Building Energy Model)model.We incorporated local climate zone(LCZ)land use data that resolved urban morphology using 10 classes of building parameters.The simulation was compared to a control case based on MODIS(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)land use data.The findings are as follows:(1)the LCZ data performed better than the MODIS data for simulating 10-m wind speed.An increase in building height led to the wind speed to decrease by 0.6-1.4 m s^(-1)in the daytime and by 0.2-0.7 m s^(-1)at nighttime.(2)High-rise buildings warmed the air by trapping radiation in the urban canyon.This warming effect was partially offset by the cooling effect of building shadows in the day.As a result,the 2-m temperature increased by 0.8℃ at night but only by 0.4℃ during the day.(3)Heterogeneous urban surfaces increased the 50-m turbulent kinetic energy by 0.4 m^(2) s^(-2),decreased the 10-m wind speed by 1.8 m s^(-1)in the daytime,increased the surface net radiation by 45.1 W m^(2)-,and increased the 2-m temperature by 1.5℃ at nighttime.(4)The LCZ data modified the atmospheric circulation between land and ocean.The shadowing effect reduced the air temperature differences between land and ocean and weakened the sea breeze.Moreover,high-rise buildings obstructed sea breezes,restricting their impact to a smaller portion(10 km along the wind direction)of inland areas compared to that with MODIS.
基金The National Key Basic Research Program of China under contract No.2014CB953904the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province under contract No.2015A030311026the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41275145 and 41275060
文摘The weather research and forecasting(WRF) model is a new generation mesoscale numerical model with a fine grid resolution(2 km), making it ideal to simulate the macro-and micro-physical processes and latent heating within Typhoon Molave(2009). Simulations based on a single-moment, six-class microphysical scheme are shown to be reasonable, following verification of results for the typhoon track, wind intensity, precipitation pattern, as well as inner-core thermodynamic and dynamic structures. After calculating latent heating rate, it is concluded that the total latent heat is mainly derived from condensation below the zero degree isotherm, and from deposition above this isotherm. It is revealed that cloud microphysical processes related to graupel are the most important contributors to the total latent heat. Other important latent heat contributors in the simulated Typhoon Molave are condensation of cloud water, deposition of cloud ice, deposition of snow, initiation of cloud ice crystals, deposition of graupel, accretion of cloud water by graupel, evaporation of cloud water and rainwater,sublimation of snow, sublimation of graupel, melting of graupel, and sublimation of cloud ice. In essence, the simulated latent heat profile is similar to ones recorded by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, although specific values differ slightly.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52279015)。
文摘The Pearl River Delta(PRD)is one of the three urban agglomerations in China that have experienced rapid development.For this study,a core area of the PRD was identified,comprising the highly urbanized areas of Guangzhou,Foshan,Zhongshan,Zhuhai,Shenzhen,and Dongguan Cities.The expansion of these urban areas was tracked across three time periods—the year population urbanization rate exceeded 70%(2000),18 years before(1982),and 18 years after(2018).This study used the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model to explore summer rainfall changes across different urbanization periods in the PRD core area.The results show that urban land expansion mainly occurred in the post urbanization period.Rainfall changes acros s different urbanization periods were roughly consistent with previously observed spatial and temporal changes accompanying urban expansion in the PRD core area.Extreme rainfall mainly increased in the post urbanization period,shifting rainstorm center towards the PRD core area.Further causal analysis revealed that land use changes affected rainfall by altering thermodynamics and water vapor transfer.The urban expansion changed the surface energy balance,resulting in increased surface heating and heat island effects.The heat island effects thickened the planetary boundary layer and increased vertical wind speeds,which initiated dry island effects,thereby causing more water vapor transportation to the atmosphere.Consequently,rainstorms and extreme rainfall events have become concentrated in urban areas.