SPATIO-TEMPORAL VARIATION OF SEASONAL EXTREME WET DAYS IN CHINA AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH SST ANOMALIES

With daily precipitation records at 586 stations in China for 1960-2004, this study investigates the spatio-temporal variation of the number of extreme wet days (NEWD) for each season in China and its relationship with SST anomalies and associated atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns, in which a threshold of extreme precipitation for a season and a station is defined as the value of the 90th percentile when the precipitation records for wet days during the season are ranked in an increasing order. Results show that there are significant increases of the NEWD along the Yangtze River valley during winter and summer, in North China during winter, in South China during spring, in Northeast China during winter and spring, and in Northwest China throughout the seasons, while there is a remarkable decrease in North China during summer. Besides the linear trend, the NEWD also exhibits considerable interannual and interdecadal variabilities. After eliminating the linear trend, the NEWD anomalies show distinct seasonal patterns. The NEWD anomalies are characterized by a "dipole" mode with opposite phases between northern and southern China in spring and autumn, a "tri-pole" mode with opposite phases between Yangtze River valley and southern and northern China in summer, and a "monopole" mode with the same phase over most of China in winter. The relationship of the NEWD anomalies in China with the SST anomalies in Indian and Pacific Oceans is found to be mainly dependent on the ENSO, and associated atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns for the ENSO's impact on the NEWD in China are identified.

Changes in Daily Climate Extremes of Observed Temperature and Precipitation in China

Daily precipitation for 1960-2011 and maximum/minimum temperature extremes for 1960-2008 recorded at 549 stations in China are utilized to investigate climate extreme variations.A set of indices is derived and analyzed with a main focus on the trends and variabilities of daily extreme occurrences.Results show significant increases in daily extreme warm temperatures and decreases in daily extreme cold temperatures,defined as the number of days in which daily maximum temperature （Tmax） and daily minimum temperature （Tmin） are greater than the 90th percentile and less than thel0th percentile,respectively.Generally,the trend magnitudes are larger in indices derived from Tmin than those from Tmax.Trends of percentile-based precipitation indices show distinct spatial patterns with increases in heavy precipitation events,defined as the top 95th percentile of daily precipitation,in westem and northeastern China and in the low reaches of the Yangtze River basin region,and slight decreases in other areas.Light precipitation,defined as the tail of the 5th percentile of daily precipitation,however,decreases in most areas.The annual maximum consecutive dry days （CDD） show an increasing trend in southem China and the middle-low reach of the Yellow River basin,while the annual maximum consecutive wet days （CWD） displays a downtrend over most regions except western China.These indices vary significantly with regions and seasons.Overall,occurrences of extreme events in China are more frequent,particularly the night time extreme temperature,and landmasses in China become warmer and wetter.

Identifying hot spots of long-duration extreme climate events in the northwest arid region of China and implications for glaciers and runoff

China’s Northwest Arid Region(NAR),with dry and cold climate conditions and glaciers widely developed in the high mountains,provides vital water resources for Asia.The consecutive cold,warm,dry and wet days have much higher impacts on the water cycle process in this region than extreme temperature and precipitation events with short durations but high intensities.Parametric and nonparametric trend analysis methods widely used in climatology and hydrology are employed to identify the temporal and spatial features of the changes in the consecutive cold,warm,dry and wet days in the NAR based on China’s 0.5°×0.5°meteorological grid datasets of daily temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2018.This study found that(1)the consecutive cold days(Cold Spell Duration Indicator,CSDI),and the consecutive dry days(CDD)decreased,while the consecutive warm days(Warm Spell Duration Indicator,WSDI),and the consecutive wet days(CWD)increased from 1961 to 2018,(2)and the eastern Kunlun Mountains were the hot spots where all of these consecutive climate indices changed significantly,(3)and the changes in these consecutive climate indices were highly correlated with the rise in the Global Mean Land/Ocean Temperature Index.The results indicated that winters tended to warmer and dryer and summer became hotter and wetter during 1961–2018 in the NAR under the global warming,which can lead to the sustained glacier retreat and the increase in summer runoff in this region,and the eastern Kunlun Mountains are the area where could face high risks of water scarcity and floods if the changes in these climate indices continue in the future.Given the vulnerability of the socio-economic systems in the NAR to a water shortage and floods,it is most crucial to improve the strategies of water resources management,disaster prevention and risk management for this region under climate change.

Probability Distribution of Summer Daily Precipitation in the Huaihe Basin of China Based on Gamma Distribution

The probability distribution of precipitation in the Huaihe basin （HB） is analyzed with the shape and scale parameters of a Gamma distribution. The summer daily precipitation records of 158 meteorological raingauges are applied over the HB during the period of 1980-2007, and the precipitation samples are classified into unconditional rainy days and conditional rainy days which have a dry or wet preceding day over the years. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov （K-S） test and the comparison between the Gamma distribution probability density function and the sample frequency of daily precipitation records of five representative stations are conducted and analyzed. The results show that the HB is a ＂scale-dominated＂ region characterized with large scale parameters of the Gamma distribution, where rainfall is likely to exhibit large variability leading to extreme wet or dry conditions. Fklrther analysis shows that the confluence area of Sha River and Ying River within the stream between Wangjiaba dam and Bengbu station, the eastern branch of the Huaihe River （HR） between Bengbu station and the Hongze Lake, and the downstream area below the Hongze Lake, are all the areas with a high probability of large precipitation under the condition that the rainy day has a dry preceding day. The eastern part of the Yishu River watershed and the region near Wangjiaba dam are the center of a high probability of large precipitation under the condition that the rainy day has a wet preceding day. Moreover, the day following a dry preceding day has a greater probability of small rainfall. The probability distribution of summer daily precipitation of the HB is significantly skewed. The probability distribution could be more applicable if the rainy days are preceded by a dry or wet day.