After operating for four years,the fallow project in the groundwater funnel area of the North China Plain has produced an initial water-saving effect.However,groundwater funnel remediation is a long-term process,and g...After operating for four years,the fallow project in the groundwater funnel area of the North China Plain has produced an initial water-saving effect.However,groundwater funnel remediation is a long-term process,and grain price changes over time may affect farmers’willingness to participate in fallow.Based on the estimation by the Cobb-Douglas production function,the relationship between farmers’satisfaction with fallow compensation and planting income is analyzed based on survey data collected from farming households in Hebei,a typical province located in the groundwater funnel area.Using this data,the impact of wheat price changes on farmers’willingness to participate in fallow is simulated.The results indicate wheat price changes affect farmers’expected planting income and consequently their willingness to fallow;88%of farmers would be unwilling to participate in fallow with a 0.1 yuan per 500 g increase in the wheat price,whereas 71.4%of farmers would be willing to participate in fallow with a 0.2 yuan per 500 g decrease in the price.Finally,some policy implications are proposed,such as the recommendation that the fallow compensation should be adjusted according to the wheat price multiplied by the average wheat yield of the three years before fallow in the North China Plain.展开更多
With the aid of the VECM( vector error correction model),this paper studied dynamic effect of wheat price and flour price conduction mechanism in the wheat industry chain. Study results indicate that in a long term,wh...With the aid of the VECM( vector error correction model),this paper studied dynamic effect of wheat price and flour price conduction mechanism in the wheat industry chain. Study results indicate that in a long term,wheat price and flour price have equilibrium relationship. Through threshold co-integration test,it found that there is no threshold co-integration relationship between wheat price and flour price.This can be adjusted using the linear error correction mode. In a short term,the wheat price and flour price have Granger causality relationship. When the price deviates from equilibrium state,the flour price can be adjusted and regressed to equilibrium state,but the speed of wheat price regressing to equilibrium state is slow. Finally,the impulse response function analysis indicates that fluctuation of the wheat price can bring huge and sustained impact to wheat and flour market.展开更多
In recent years,the constant increase in the purchase price of maize has caused maize to squeeze wheat planting area,affecting the wheat supply and price in the market,and posing a threat to the safety of wheat ration...In recent years,the constant increase in the purchase price of maize has caused maize to squeeze wheat planting area,affecting the wheat supply and price in the market,and posing a threat to the safety of wheat rations. In order to further study the price fluctuations between maize and wheat,based on the quarterly data of the 2007-2017 maize and wheat production price index,this paper established a VAR model and found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the price of maize and wheat,and maize price fluctuation was the Granger cause of wheat price fluctuation,wheat price fluctuation was not the Granger cause of maize price fluctuation. Based on the above conclusions,it came up with recommendations for the optimization of grain planting structure,and protection of food security is of great significance.展开更多
Wheat is a staple agricultural grain commodity used within the United States and is grown in nearly every state. Modeling the price of Hard Winter Red wheat (the most common type of wheat) is of extreme economic and s...Wheat is a staple agricultural grain commodity used within the United States and is grown in nearly every state. Modeling the price of Hard Winter Red wheat (the most common type of wheat) is of extreme economic and social importance. The 2008 financial crisis had a drastic effect on the price of food in real terms, tightening household budgets and increasing the US percentage of citizen classed below the poverty line. Understanding the influential factors in the econometric modeling of the price of wheat allows for more effective governmental intervention and price stabilization. Results indicate that the price of wheat is influenced by a combination of 5 separate functions: “supply”, “demand”, “macroeconomic”, “climate” and “natural resource” related functions. These functions derive from a wide variety of different data sources. The functions were determined and then incorporated into an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model taking into account variable interaction, variable transformation and time. This regression exercise resulted in a good model, explaining just over 90% of the variation in the price of wheat. Yet, results indicate that the model though sensitive to sharp decreases in the price of wheat is insensitive to sharp increases in the price of wheat. Ideas are discussed of ways of improving the price model. These include the addition of other variables, such as financial speculation/increased use of climate related variables and the idea of using alternative statistical modeling techniques in place of robust OLS regression modeling, such as SVAR models and Spline GARCH models. This research implies that further research into the modeling of the price of wheat within the US has useful potential for a more productive outcome.展开更多
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(41961035,41971243)The Academic and Technical Leaders Funding Program for Major Disciplines in Jiangxi Province(20172BCB22011)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation in Jiangxi Province(20202BAB213014)The Technology Foundation of Jiangxi Education Department of China(GJJ180285)。
文摘After operating for four years,the fallow project in the groundwater funnel area of the North China Plain has produced an initial water-saving effect.However,groundwater funnel remediation is a long-term process,and grain price changes over time may affect farmers’willingness to participate in fallow.Based on the estimation by the Cobb-Douglas production function,the relationship between farmers’satisfaction with fallow compensation and planting income is analyzed based on survey data collected from farming households in Hebei,a typical province located in the groundwater funnel area.Using this data,the impact of wheat price changes on farmers’willingness to participate in fallow is simulated.The results indicate wheat price changes affect farmers’expected planting income and consequently their willingness to fallow;88%of farmers would be unwilling to participate in fallow with a 0.1 yuan per 500 g increase in the wheat price,whereas 71.4%of farmers would be willing to participate in fallow with a 0.2 yuan per 500 g decrease in the price.Finally,some policy implications are proposed,such as the recommendation that the fallow compensation should be adjusted according to the wheat price multiplied by the average wheat yield of the three years before fallow in the North China Plain.
文摘With the aid of the VECM( vector error correction model),this paper studied dynamic effect of wheat price and flour price conduction mechanism in the wheat industry chain. Study results indicate that in a long term,wheat price and flour price have equilibrium relationship. Through threshold co-integration test,it found that there is no threshold co-integration relationship between wheat price and flour price.This can be adjusted using the linear error correction mode. In a short term,the wheat price and flour price have Granger causality relationship. When the price deviates from equilibrium state,the flour price can be adjusted and regressed to equilibrium state,but the speed of wheat price regressing to equilibrium state is slow. Finally,the impulse response function analysis indicates that fluctuation of the wheat price can bring huge and sustained impact to wheat and flour market.
文摘In recent years,the constant increase in the purchase price of maize has caused maize to squeeze wheat planting area,affecting the wheat supply and price in the market,and posing a threat to the safety of wheat rations. In order to further study the price fluctuations between maize and wheat,based on the quarterly data of the 2007-2017 maize and wheat production price index,this paper established a VAR model and found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the price of maize and wheat,and maize price fluctuation was the Granger cause of wheat price fluctuation,wheat price fluctuation was not the Granger cause of maize price fluctuation. Based on the above conclusions,it came up with recommendations for the optimization of grain planting structure,and protection of food security is of great significance.
文摘Wheat is a staple agricultural grain commodity used within the United States and is grown in nearly every state. Modeling the price of Hard Winter Red wheat (the most common type of wheat) is of extreme economic and social importance. The 2008 financial crisis had a drastic effect on the price of food in real terms, tightening household budgets and increasing the US percentage of citizen classed below the poverty line. Understanding the influential factors in the econometric modeling of the price of wheat allows for more effective governmental intervention and price stabilization. Results indicate that the price of wheat is influenced by a combination of 5 separate functions: “supply”, “demand”, “macroeconomic”, “climate” and “natural resource” related functions. These functions derive from a wide variety of different data sources. The functions were determined and then incorporated into an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model taking into account variable interaction, variable transformation and time. This regression exercise resulted in a good model, explaining just over 90% of the variation in the price of wheat. Yet, results indicate that the model though sensitive to sharp decreases in the price of wheat is insensitive to sharp increases in the price of wheat. Ideas are discussed of ways of improving the price model. These include the addition of other variables, such as financial speculation/increased use of climate related variables and the idea of using alternative statistical modeling techniques in place of robust OLS regression modeling, such as SVAR models and Spline GARCH models. This research implies that further research into the modeling of the price of wheat within the US has useful potential for a more productive outcome.
基金国家自然科学基金青年项目"供应链视角下粮食产区和销区利益协调政策的模拟与优化"(71403114)公益性行业(粮食)科研专项"国家粮食安全预警指标体系建设研究"(201313009-1)+2 种基金服务国家特殊需求博士人才培养项目开放课题"论粮食的两个市场--原粮与成品粮价格关联性及形成机制异质性分析"(BSXJ201509)的阶段性研究成果江苏高校优势学科项目建设工程(PAPD)"青蓝工程"项目(Qing Lan Project)资助
