Corporate Risk Strategic Management and Probabilistic Analysis Related to Environmental Liabilities: A Case Study

Environmental stewardship is one of the main indicators of corporate performance and reputation among investors today. However, historical operational practices and accidents have created significant environmental liabilities in the industrial sector, and now require significant investments for appropriate management and resolution. A strategic approach is imperative to assure that company’s financial resources are effectively allocated, and shareholders’ interests are protected. In addition, these liabilities must be appropriately and continuously reported, which require the use of robust forecasting techniques such as Monte Carlo Simulation. The present study results demonstrate that under an optimized strategic approach, liability management costs may be reduced in approximately 50%. In addition, the financial forecast under the selected approach may support appropriate reporting of company’s liabilities.

Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

Study on Environmental Risk and Economic Benefits of Rotation Systems in Farmland of Erhai Lake Basin

This study was designed to find out an optimised planting system of reducing non-point （source） pollution by analyzing the reasons and the factors of influence non-point pollution in farmland of Erhai Lake basin. The results showed that incomes, residual nitrogen in soil, and the loss of nitrogen in surface water in rice-garlic system were higher than those in rice-fava bean system. There were positive correlations between the nitrogen loss of farmland, nitrogen inputs, residual nitrogen in soil, and incomes of farmland. Economic benefits and environment benefits are both appropriate, if the area of rice-garlic system would be reduced to 53% and the area of rice-fava bean system increased to 36% of total cropping area in the investigated watershed. Adjustment of planting structure and introduction of reasonable rotation systems is considered an effective measure of controlling agricultural non-point pollution in watersheds of Erhai Lake.

Does Environmental Risk Affect Human Migration Behavior?

This study tests the influence of environmental risks associated with floods, hurricanes, and hazardous material releases on human migration behavior. With close attention to a function of environmental risk factors, socio-demographic attributes, hazard risk and locational attributes were measured and correlated to the standardized number of recent arrivals and long term residents at the census tract level. Two groups (i.e., recent arrivals and long-term residents) were created to compare their moving behavior. The results indicate that flood risk showed little relationship to either recent arrivals or long-term residents. These results are consistent with past research which suggests that people tend to ignore their vulnerability to natural hazards. However, both groups had negative relationships to the risk from hurricanes and hazardous material releases. This counter-intuitive result suggests that other factors, such as proximity to employment opportunities or property tax advantages, need to be examined. In particular, the recent arrivals were negatively related to chemical risk while long-term residents were positively related to chemical risks, indicating that people that just arrived and old residents are somewhat different in perceiving environmental risks. In addition, the results of this study suggest that people are objective about environmental risks in selecting their habitat. However, once the habitat is settled, people’s perception of the risks may be interfered or reduced by other factors.

Considerations on Research of Environmental Risk Prevention and Control in “12th Five-Year Plan” Period

Along with the environmental pollution causes complexity and diversity increases ceaselessly, “national environmental protection” Twelfth Five “planning” (hereinafter referred to as “planning”) will be the environmental risk prevention as the “12th Five-Year Plan” one of the important tasks, including advancing environmental risk management in the whole process, key areas the environmental risk prevention measures. The whole process environmental risk management covers a risk source recognition, receptor vulnerability assessment, environmental risk characterization, risk decision and risk assessment of accident loss. This article from the environmental risk source classification, environmental risk classification management, environmental emergency response and environmental risk and insurance environment four aspects put forward the “12th Five-Year Plan” whole process environmental risk management content, to further reduce our country environmental pollution accident risk and policy makers to provide some decision support.

Insight of chemical environmental risk and its management from the vinyl chloride accident

The combustion of vinyl chloride(VC)after the train derailment accident in Ohio,USA in February,2023 has caused widespread concern around the world.This paper tried to analyze several issues concerning the accident,including the appropriateness of the VC combustion in the emergency response in this accident,the meanings of so-called“controlled combustion”,the potential environmental risks caused by VC and combustion by-products,and follow-up work.In our view,this accident had surely caused environmental and health risks to some extent.Hence,a comprehensive environmental risk assessment is necessary,and then the site with risk should be comprehensively remediated,hazardous waste should be harmlessly treated as soon as possible.Finally,this accident suggests that further efforts should be taken to bridge the gap between chemical safety management and their environmental risk management.

Transport Risk Assessment for the Environment

Transport risk assessment for the environment has two important aspects--problem solving model and solution veracity. Problem solving model is larger understanding of tasks interconnection, which represents in itself partial solution of general risk assessment. Veracity of solution means how the results are consistent with the reality. By researching of both aspects, it rises many unanswered questions. It is concerned about verification and validation of risk assessment results. By risk assessment for the environment it is possible to meet wide variety of more or less good soluble problems. It exists simple problems based on risk assessment of common traffic accidents connected with service charge outflow. On the other site, it exists complex problems of risk assessment connected with dangerous goods transport by traffic or pipelines. By simple problems solving there are not many questions about risk assessment veracity. It is possible to determine traffic accidents frequencies and service charge outflows consequences on the basis of examined events in transportation with great veracity. By complex problems the situation is quite different. The frequencies of large accidents are very low but the consequences for the environment may be large. Both are encumbered by large level of uncertainty. That is why the question is rising. To what degree, it is in these cases correct to make decision based on risk assessment.

中国农田土壤重金属污染的人体健康风险评估:研究进展与展望

农田土壤重金属污染对食品安全和人体健康构成巨大的威胁。重金属主要通过经口摄入土壤、吸入土壤颗粒、皮肤接触和食物链摄取等暴露途径进入人体,其中经口摄入重金属污染土壤和农产品是主要的暴露途径。人体健康风险评估在农田土壤质量分类和风险管控中起着重要作用。因此,梳理了中国农田土壤重金属污染的人体健康风险评估的发展状况,介绍了人体健康风险评估的基本流程和评估技术,论述了影响人体健康风险评价准确性的主要因素及优化措施。在农田土壤重金属健康风险评估中,应加强耦合污染源识别技术、重视食物消费暴露途径、精准识别不同敏感受体、本土化敏感受体的暴露参数、纳入重金属的生物可给性,同时提高农田土壤重金属健康风险评估的准确性。未来可从加强应对健康风险评估过程不确定性的技术方法、考虑各种饮食的暴露途径和建立本土化的重金属毒性标准数据等多方面深化农田土壤重金属健康风险评估,以期推动中国农田土壤重金属人体健康风险评估的理论和技术发展。

大数据背景下造纸企业经营风险识别与管理优化研究

近年来,大数据技术的快速发展颠覆了造纸企业传统的风险控制模式,大数据技术在企业经营管理中实现降本增效的趋势越发明显。基于此,简述了造纸企业经营风险的种类与控制现状,探究了大数据时代给造纸企业经营风险控制带来的积极效应与消极影响,结合某些造纸企业经营实例进行经营风险的识别与分析,并基于大数据背景提出造纸企业经营风险识别与管理优化策略,以期建立科学、有效的经营风险预防与管控体系,提升造纸企业经营管理水平。

“不确定性”是人类心理健康的重要风险因素

相比身体健康,心理健康与幸福是人类生存的更高追求,是“健康中国与幸福中国”的终极目标之一。在经济、社会、生态环境风险与日俱增的现代社会,“不确定性”挑战对人类心理健康的威胁已不容忽视。基于不确定管理理论和生命史理论等理论假设,个体对“不确定性”的厌恶与生俱来。“不确定性”不仅影响个体的决策行为,而且会增加焦虑情绪,引发抑郁、睡眠障碍等心理健康问题。尤其对于儿童和青少年等风险应对能力相对欠缺的弱势群体,以及不确定性容忍度和心理弹性较低的高敏感群体,“不确定性”对心理健康的负面影响更为严重。为此,面对“不确定性”陡增的时代特点,个体应准确识变,减少内在的不合理认知;应科学应变,增强风险应对能力;同时,联合家校社三方主动求变,汇聚保护心理健康的外部资源,在风险社会中构建心理健康的“确定性”支持网络。

Prioritizing chemicals for environmental management in China based on screening of potential risks

The rapid development of China＇s chemical industry has created increasing pressure to improve the environmental management of chemicals. To bridge the large gap between the use and safe management of chemicals, we performed a comprehensive review of the international methods used to prioritize chemicals for environmental management. By comparing domestic and foreign methods, we confirmed the presence of this gap and identified potential solutions. Based on our literature review, we developed an appropriate screening method that accounts for the unique characteristics of chemical use within China. The proposed method is based on an evaluation using nine indices of the potential hazard posed by a chemical： three environmental hazard indices （persistence, bioaccumulation, and eco-toxicity）, four health hazard indices （acute toxicity, carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, and reproductive and developmental toxi- city）, and two environmental exposure hazard indices （chemical amount and utilization pattern）. The results of our screening agree with results of previous efforts from around the world, confirming the validity of the new system. The classification method will help decision- makers to prioritize and identify the chemicals with the highest environmental risk, thereby providing a basis for improving chemical management in China.

废弃矿山固废环境风险评价方法与分级监管建议

中国是矿业大国,矿种丰富,造成历史遗留矿山众多。因矿种类型复杂、不同地区气候差异大、水文地质条件不同以及周边环境敏感度迥异,致使其环境风险不明,环境污染底数不清,目前仍缺乏针对历史遗留矿山环境风险的评价方法体系。本研究尝试建立了一种基于层次分析法的历史遗留矿山环境风险评估方法,选择具有主导作用、代表性的12项指标构建了基于评价目标层、评价准则层与评价因子层的历史遗留矿山固废环境风险评价三级指标体系,包括矿种类别、固废属性、自然条件、管理措施、保护目标与环境质量等,构建了判断矩阵并通过一致性检验,明确了各影响要素的权重。根据实际赋分情况,将历史遗留矿山环境风险等级分为一般、较大和严重三个等级。在此基础上提出了针对不同风险等级应采取的管理措施:自然衰减、风险管控与修复治理。最后将建立的评价方法应用于某地区的10个历史遗留矿山的环境风险评价,结果显示该地区一般、较大和严重风险的矿山数量分别为7、2和1,评价结果可为历史遗留矿山的差异性环境监管工作提供参考。

尾矿污染地下水管控修复技术与实例分析

尾矿库因势能高、尾矿量大且组分复杂等特点而成为重点环境监管对象。本文分析了尾矿污染地下水的成因与特征,梳理了管控修复技术,总结了不同技术的特点及适用场景,介绍了典型的技术应用案例,并展望了未来的技术发展方向。指出,“堵、截、隔、治”的组合手段是治理尾矿污染地下水的重要措施,可为尾矿库地下水污染的风险管控和修复提供参考。

中国锂动力电池产业链污染调查评估及风险管控

在碳达峰、碳中和目标指引下,新能源汽车产业带动锂动力电池迅猛发展,锂动力电池全产业链包括上游锂资源开发利用与锂盐生产、中游锂动力电池原材料生产与锂动力电池制造、下游锂动力电池的回收与利用,其生产过程均对生态环境产生不同程度的影响。基于全国环境影响评价管理信息平台相关数据及产业链产排污特征分析,研究指出中国锂动力电池产业发展面临的环境风险,并提出针对性的建议。结果表明,上游锂资源扩产面临较大的生态环境风险,锂盐生产或影响区域环境空气质量;中游锂动力电池生产过程涉及多种重金属与有机物,存在环境风险;下游回收利用现状不容乐观;建议从环境准入、排污许可、企业环境主体责任等方面入手,加强全产业链的环境风险管控。

中国污染场地修复后期管理研究

后期管理是污染场地风险管控和修复活动的重要环节,美国、荷兰、英国等均建立了完善的后期管理政策和技术体系。中国虽然初步构建了基于调查、风险评估、风险管控和修复、效果评估、后期管理的建设用地全过程风险管控体系,但当前针对后期管理仍存在制度要求不完善、技术规范缺乏、监管责任不明确等问题。在分析中国污染场地修复后期管理现状和国外实践经验的基础上,初步构建修复后场地长期管理框架,并提出健全后期管理制度、建立环境风险监控和预警技术体系、完善全生命周期管理体系等对策建议,以期为中国建设用地风险管控提供参考。

江苏省风险管控和修复名录地块污染特征分析及对策建议

根据《中华人民共和国土壤污染防治法》,建立并公开《江苏省建设用地土壤污染风险管控和修复名录》(以下简称“名录”)。对2020—2022中江苏省纳入名录的116个污染地块开展系统性分析,结果表明:纳入名录的污染地块数量和面积与地区经济发展水平有关,南京、无锡、常州和苏州排名前列;土水复合污染地块占53%,其中64%的地块地下水最大污染深度大于同一地块土壤最大污染深度;共统计到167种污染物,重金属、石油烃和多环芳烃最为常见,约50%的污染物不在我国现行建设用地土壤及地下水污染评价标准中;已完成修复并移出名录的31个地块中,17%的污染土壤和25%的污染地下水采用原位修复技术。提出了完善土壤环境质量标准体系,探索土水协同治理修复模式,推进土壤污染绿色低碳修复等针对性的对策建议,为促进土壤、地下水环境管理和污染防治行业科学发展提供参考依据。

建设工程环境健康风险法律规制研究

随着经济社会的发展,建设环境健康风险正在以新的、更为复杂的样态呈现,给现阶段的环境健康风险规制带来了新的挑战。当前,我国建设工程环境健康风险规制存在风险规制依据不充分、环境标准与健康需求不匹配、环境健康风险信息缺乏有效沟通、环境健康风险管理模式未发挥实效等问题。因此,必须加强环境健康基准研究,同时将重要健康指标纳入环境标准体系,完善环境健康风险沟通制度,构建多元风险交流机制,推动工程建设与环境健康风险管理制度的协同治理,确保公众的环境健康权益得到更好的保护。

公路突发环境风险管控分析

为有效防范高速公路突发环境事件造成重大环境影响和经济损失,本文以济泰高速为例,对高速公路突发环境风险管控探索及实践过程中获得的经验及启示进行凝练和总结,提出了要从“情景推演+模型预测”的多手段风险评估体系出发,全面系统地厘清可能发生的环境风险,进而针对每一项风险构建“有预警、有部署、有措施”的风险管控体系,确定人员权责分工及物资配置,最终形成了“协同联动、专项专案”的应急预案体系。

固废管理体系中的环境风险评估与管理研究

本文探讨了固废管理体系中的环境风险评估与管理,旨在强调环境风险评估的重要性及如何将其有效应用于固废管理中。本文介绍了环境风险的定义和概念以及环境风险评估的方法,包括定性评估、定量评估及相关模型和工具,讨论了固废的定义和分类以及环境法规和固废管理的关键元素,重点关注了风险管理在固废管理中的应用,包括风险的减轻和避免、应急响应及治理和监测,并通过案例研究和成功的环境风险管理实践,强调环境风险管理在固废管理体系中的关键作用。