Water consumption in summer maize and winter wheat cropping system based on SEBAL model in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

Crop consumptive water use is recognized as a key element to understand regional water management performance. This study documents an attempt to apply a regional evapotranspiration model（SEBAL） and crop information for assessment of regional crop（summer maize and winter wheat） actual evapotranspiration（ET a） in Huang-Huai-Hai（3H） Plain, China. The average seasonal ET a of summer maize and winter wheat were 354.8 and 521.5 mm respectively in 3H Plain. A high-ET a belt of summer maize occurs in piedmont plain, while a low ET a area was found in the hill-irrigable land and dry land area. For winter wheat, a high-ET a area was located in the middle part of 3H Plain, including low plain-hydropenia irrigable land and dry land, hill-irrigable land and dry land, and basin-irrigable land and dry land. Spatial analysis demonstrated a linear relationship between crop ET a, normalized difference vegetation index（NDVI）, and the land surface temperature（LST）. A stronger relationship between ET a and NDVI was found in the metaphase and last phase than other crop growing phase, as indicated by higher correlation coefficient values. Additionally, higher correlation coefficients were detected between ET a and LST than that between ET a and NDVI, and this significant relationship ran through the entire crop growing season. ET a in the summer maize growing season showed a significant relationship with longitude, while ET a in the winter wheat growing season showed a significant relationship with latitude. The results of this study will serve as baseline information for water resources management of 3H Plain.

Study on Growth Monitoring and Yield Prediction of Winter Wheat in the South of Shanxi Province Based on MERSI Data and ALMANAC Crop Model

Accurate crop growth monitoring and yield forecasting have important implications for food security and agricultural macro-control. Crop simulation and satellite remote sensing have their own advantages, combining the two can improve the real-time mechanism and accuracy of agricultural monitoring and evaluation. The research is based on the MERSI data carried by China’s new generation Fengyun-3 meteorological satellite, combined with the US ALMANAC crop model, established the NDVI-LAI model and realized the acquisition of LAI data from point to surface. Because of the principle of the relationship between the morphological changes of LAI curve and the growth of crops, an index that can be used to determine the growth of crops is established to realize real-time, dynamic and wide-scale monitoring of winter wheat growth. At the same time, the index was used to select the different key growth stages of winter wheat for yield estimation. The results showed that the relative error of total yield during the filling period was low, nearly 5%. The research results show that the combination of domestic meteorological satellite Fengyun-3 and ALMANAC crop model for crop growth monitoring and yield estimation is feasible, and further expands the application range of domestic satellites.

Assimilation of temporal-spatial leaf area index into the CERES-Wheat model with ensemble Kalman filter and uncertainty assessment for improving winter wheat yield estimation

To accurately estimate winter wheat yields and analyze the uncertainty in crop model data assimilations, winter wheat yield estimates were obtained by assimilating measured or remotely sensed leaf area index （LAI） values. The performances of the calibrated crop environment resource synthesis for wheat （CERES-Wheat） model for two different assimilation scenarios were compared by employing ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF）-based strategies. The uncertainty factors of the crop model data assimilation was analyzed by considering the observation errors, assimilation stages and temporal-spatial scales. Overalll the results indicated a better yield estimate performance when the EnKF-based strategy was used to comprehen- sively consider several factors in the initial conditions and observations. When using this strategy, an adjusted coefficients of determination （R2） of 0.84, a root mean square error （RMSE） of 323 kg ha-1, and a relative errors （RE） of 4.15% were obtained at the field plot scale and an R2 of 0.81, an RMSE of 362 kg ha-1, and an RE of 4.52% were obtained at the pixel scale of 30 mx30 m. With increasing observation errors, the accuracy of the yield estimates obviously decreased, but an acceptable estimate was observed when the observation errors were within 20%. Winter wheat yield estimates could be improved significantly by assimilating observations from the middle to the end of the crop growing seasons. With decreasing assimilation frequency and pixel resolution, the accuracy of the crop yield estimates decreased; however, the computation time decreased. It is important to consider reasonable temporal-spatial scales and assimilation stages to obtain tradeoffs between accuracy and computation time, especially in operational systems used for regional crop yield estimates.

The Effect of Organo-Mineral Fertilizer Applications on the Yield of Winter Wheat, Spring Barley, Forage Maize and Grass Cut for Silage

Biosolids were applied with urea to produce a granulated organo-mineral fertiliser (OMF) for application by farm fertiliser equipment to a range of agricultural crops. The recommended rates of nitrogen, phosphate and potash were calculated for the test crops using “The Fertiliser Manual”, which assesses the nutrient requirement based on previous cropping, rainfall and soil index. The OMF produced similar crop yields compared to ammonium nitrate fertiliser when applied as a top-dressing to winter wheat, forage maize and grass cut for silage in the cropping years 2010 to 2014. In 2012 the grain yield of spring barley top-dressed with OMF was significantly lower than the conventional fertiliser treatment, due to dry conditions following application. For this reason it is recommended that OMF is incorporated into the seedbed for spring sown crops and The Safe Sludge Matrix guidelines followed. The experimental work presented shows that OMF can be used in sustainable crop production systems as a source of nitrogen and phosphorus for a range of agricultural crops.

Significant reduction of ammonia emissions while increasing crop yields using the 4R nutrient stewardship in an intensive cropping system

Ammonia (NH_3) emissions should be mitigated to improve environmental quality.Croplands are one of the largest NH_3sources,they must be managed properly to reduce their emissions while achieving the target yields.Herein,we report the NH_3 emissions,crop yield and changes in soil fertility in a long-term trial with various fertilization regimes,to explore whether NH_3 emissions can be significantly reduced using the 4R nutrient stewardship (4Rs),and its interaction with the organic amendments (i.e.,manure and straw) in a wheat–maize rotation.Implementing the 4Rs significantly reduced NH_3 emissions to 6 kg N ha~(–1) yr~(–1) and the emission factor to 1.72%,without compromising grain yield (12.37 Mg ha~(–1) yr~(–1))and soil fertility (soil organic carbon of 7.58 g kg~(–1)) compared to the conventional chemical N management.When using the 4R plus manure,NH_3 emissions (7 kg N ha~(–1) yr~(–1)) and the emission factor (1.74%) were as low as 4Rs,and grain yield and soil organic carbon increased to 14.79 Mg ha~(–1) yr~(–1) and 10.09 g kg~(–1),respectively.Partial manure substitution not only significantly reduced NH_3 emissions but also increased crop yields and improved soil fertility,compared to conventional chemical N management.Straw return exerted a minor effect on NH_3 emissions.These results highlight that 4R plus manure,which couples nitrogen and carbon management can help achieve both high yields and low environmental costs.

Effects of mulches on water use in a winter wheat/summer maize rotation system in Loess Plateau, China

Limited water resources often result in reduced crop yield and low water productivity（WP）. In northwestern China, crop production is generally dependent on precipitation. Therefore, a variety of agricultural rainwater harvesting（ARH） techniques have been used for conserving soil moisture, ameliorating soil environment, increasing crop yield, and improving water use efficiency. A two-year（2013–2015） field experiment was conducted under a typical sub-humid drought-prone climate in Yangling（108°24′E, 34°20′N; 521 m a.s.l.）, Shaanxi Province, China, to explore the effects of mulching（same for summer maize and winter wheat） on soil moisture, soil temperature, crop water consumption, and crop yield with a winter wheat/summer maize rotation. Crops were planted in a ridge-furrow pattern and the treatments consisted of a transparent film mulch over the ridges（M1）, a crop straw mulch in the furrows（M2）, a transparent film mulch over the ridges and a crop straw mulch in the furrows（M3）, a black film mulch over the ridges and a crop straw mulch in the furrows（M4）, and a control with no mulch（CK）. Results showed that M4 was the best treatment for improving soil water storage and content, and decreasing crop water consumption during the summer maize and winter wheat rotation. In both maize and wheat seasons, M1 had a higher soil temperature than M2 and CK, and M3 had a higher soil temperature than M4. In the maize seasons, M4 had the highest yield, WP, and precipitation productivity（PP）, with the average values for these parameters increasing by 30.9%, 39.0%, and 31.0%, respectively, compared to those in CK. In the wheat seasons, however, M3 had the highest yield, WP, and PP, with the average values for these parameters being 23.7%, 26.7%, and 23.8% higher, respectively, than those in CK. Annual yield（maize and wheat yields combined） and WP did not differ significantly between M3 and M4. These results suggested that M3 and M4 may thus be the optimal ARH practices for the production of winter wheat and summer maize, respectively, in arid and semi-arid areas.

Study on the Effects of Extreme Precipitation for Seven Growth Stages of Winter Wheat in Northern Weihe Loess Plateau, China

The research on the characteristic frequency of precipitation is a great significance for guiding regional agricultural planning, water conservancy project designs, and drought and flood control. Droughts and floods occurred in northern Weihe Loess Plateau, affecting growing and yield of winter wheat in the area. Based on the daily precipitation data of 29 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2012, this study is to address the analysis of three different frequencies of annual precipitation at 5%, 50%, and 95%, and to determine the amount of rainfall excess and water shortage during seven growth stages of winter wheat at 5%, 10%, and 20% frequencies, respectively. Pearson type III curve was selected for this study to analyze the distribution frequency of annual rainfall and rainfall amount following seven growth stages of winter wheat crop in 29 stations of Northern Weihe loess plateau. As a result of our study, annual precipitation is gradually increasing from southwest to northeast of Northern Weihe loess plateau. The highest amount of annual precipitation occurred in the Baoji area and the lowest precipitation covered by the northwest area of Northern Weihe loess plateau. Moreover, the amount of rainfall of seven growth stages indicates that excessive rainfall occurs not only in the first stage (sowing to tillering) and seventh stage (flowering to ripening) but also in second stage (tillering to wintering). In the seventh stage, a large amount of excessive rainfall occurred in Changwu, Bin, Qianyang, Fengxiang, Baojiqu, and Baojixian. Moreover, water shortage is distributed in the third stage (from wintering to greening), the fourth stage (from greening to jointing), the fifth stage (from jointing to heading), and the sixth stage (from heading to flowering). Furthermore, the worst water shortages occurred in Hancheng, Heyang, Chengcheng, Pucheng, Dali, Tongchuan, and Fuping in the fourth stage (greening to jointing stage). Even though we study the crop water requirement under extreme rainfall conditions, the amount of rainwater still supply inadequate in some parts of the winter wheat growth stage. Therefore, this study provides main clues for the next step to study the irrigation water needs of winter wheat crops and to reduce agricultural risks in 29 counties in the northern loess plateau and other regions.

江苏省冬小麦需水量时空变化特征及气候影响因素分析

为实现江苏省冬小麦科学灌溉、提高农业用水效率,明晰江苏省冬小麦需水量及气候影响因素的时空变化特征,为全省冬小麦灌溉管理及农业水资源高效利用提供科技支撑,基于江苏省共计12个地区2013-2022年冬小麦季相关气象资料,通过Penman-Montieth法计算近十年来江苏省冬小麦需水量,并利用Pearson相关分析法对近十年江苏省冬小麦需水量时空变化特征、需水特性以及气象影响因素进行了分析。近十年间江苏省年平均气温、日平均湿度、地表温度、降水量、蒸发量、平均日照时数均呈总体上升趋势,太阳总辐射量呈减小趋势。近十年来江苏省冬小麦本田期的需水量平均值为451.82~692.50 mm,年际变化范围在540.19~646.70 mm,不同年份间呈现减小的趋势,空间上则呈现由西北向东南递减的趋势。江苏省大部分地区冬小麦需水强度最小值出现在1月,5-6月抽穗期与灌浆期需水强度最大。江苏省冬小麦全生育期需水量与年均降雨量、日均湿度之间存在负相关关系,与年均水面蒸发量、年均日照时数、年平均气温间存在正相关关系,这其中以日均湿度、年均水面蒸发量、年均气温对冬小麦需水量的影响最为明显。并且,近十年冬小麦全生育期需水量的总体下降趋势可能是由于其与日均湿度明显更高的负相关性所导致。总之,近十年来江苏省冬小麦需水量逐年有下降趋势,且由西北向东南递减,此外全省日均湿度、年均水面蒸发量、年均气温是近年来冬小麦需水量变化的主要影响因素。

豫北两熟区不同夏播作物对后茬冬小麦中后期群体微环境及产量的影响

为探讨不同夏播作物前茬对后茬冬小麦生长和产量的影响,在河南省新乡市获嘉县开展田间二因素试验,设置两个不同施肥水平(常规施肥和不施氮肥)和三种夏播作物前茬(玉米、大豆和花生),分析小麦拔节期至成熟期叶面积指数(LAI)、叶夹角(LA)、光合有效辐射(PAR)、叶片叶绿素含量(SPAD)、叶绿素荧光(F_(v)/F_(m)),以及土壤含水量(SWC)、土壤温度(Ts)和土壤呼吸速率(Rs)变化,并在成熟期测定小麦产量及其构成因素。结果表明,与常规施肥(CK)相比,不施氮肥条件下不同前茬的小麦LA略增,而LAI、IPAR、SPAD、F_(v)/F_(m)、SWC、Ts和Rs均有所降低。不施氮肥条件下,花生前茬的小麦LAI、IPAR、SPAD、F_(v)/F_(m)、SWC、Ts和Rs均显著低于其他两种前茬(P<0.05),其中花生、大豆和玉米前茬的SWC较CK的降幅分别为13.56%、13.39%和10.77%。与CK相比,不施氮肥条件下,花生前茬的小麦LA较CK的增幅在3种前茬中居中,小麦株型较为紧凑,有利于改善植株下层光合辐射,为群体生长创造良好的光合和土壤条件,其产量较玉米和大豆前茬分别高20.0%和21.9%;玉米前茬的整体表现不如大豆和花生前茬,但其和花生前茬的小麦千粒重和群体数均较高,因而产量居中;大豆前茬的小麦结实小穗数和干物质量较高,但其小麦千粒重较低,最终籽粒产量也较低。综合来看,在两熟种植模式中,选用花生作为冬小麦的前茬作物是豫北地区一年两熟区作物配置的一种较优选择。

湖北省小麦潜在产量时空异质性特征及驱动因子分析

气候变化致使气象要素的时空分布格局发生了不同程度的变化,加剧了作物产量空间异质性的形成。因此,评估气候因子对潜在产量的贡献程度,有利于解析区域间潜在产量差异的形成机制,这对于区域内作物的合理规划和缩小区域间产量差具有重要意义。本研究基于1985—2021年湖北省小麦生长期间的气候数据,应用验证后的APSIM-Wheat模型模拟小麦的潜在产量,利用多元回归等方法评估各气候因子对潜在产量变化的贡献程度,解析潜在产量空间异质性的形成机制。结果表明:湖北省小麦潜在产量变化范围为5068.9~7895.3 kg∙hm^(−2),平均潜在产量为7187.6 kg∙hm^(−2)。近35年来,小麦生育期内的平均温度和总降水量分别以0.1℃∙(10a)−1和13.2 mm∙(10a)−1的速率增加,但总太阳辐射以123.3 MJ∙m^(−2)∙(10a)^(−1)的速率下降。这些气候因素变化加剧了生育期内易涝、弱光环境的形成,导致小麦生产潜力降低,潜在产量平均每10年下降422.0 kg∙hm^(−2),降水量的增加对潜在产量下降的贡献最大,相关系数高达−0.73。湖北省小麦潜在产量的空间分布特征为北高南低,南北小麦平均潜在产量和光热熵差距分别为218 kg∙hm^(−2)和0.06 MJ∙m^(−2)∙d^(−1)∙℃^(−1)。光热熵的高度空间异质性是造成潜在产量差异的主要因素,二者相关性高达0.82。受光热熵时空分布不均的影响,荆州小麦拔节至成熟期的平均每日生长速率较襄阳地区低28.5 kg∙hm^(−2)∙d^(−1),最终导致荆州小麦的潜在产量较襄阳地区低。综上,气候变化使得湖北省小麦潜在产量整体呈下降趋势,针对以江汉平原地区为代表的易涝、弱光的小麦生长环境,选育具有高光效和耐涝性的小麦品种对于缩小区域间的产量差距和实现区域粮食总产的全面提高具有重要意义。

补充灌溉对盐渍化农田冬小麦生长生产的影响模拟

为探究适宜干旱半干旱地区盐渍化农田冬小麦的补充灌溉策略,开展了不同灌溉次数和土壤含盐量处理下的田间试验,利用AquaCrop模型对冬小麦生长生产进行了校验,并通过情景模拟优化了典型水文年份下盐渍化农田冬小麦补充灌溉方法。结果表明:(1)AquaCrop模型可较好的模拟补充灌溉对盐渍化农田冬小麦冠层覆盖度、累积腾发量、干物质量及籽粒产量的影响,各指标的相对误差P_e为-28.54%~20.78%,相关性系数R~2为0.90~0.98,均方根误差RMSE分别为5.28%~12.19%、14.99~26.81 mm、0.57~1.04 t/hm^(2)和0.45~0.55 t/hm^(2),归一化均方根误差NRMSE为6.49%~20.10%。(2)随着灌水次数减少和土壤含盐量增加,模型精度有所降低,同时由于AquaCrop在全生育期采用了一致的作物系数,无法准确预测水盐胁迫下冬小麦早衰现象,模型易高估亏缺灌溉和盐渍化土壤条件下的冬小麦生长生产。(3)研究区轻度盐渍化农田推荐的冬小麦补充灌溉策略是干旱年在拔节、开花及灌浆期灌水60 mm、正常年在拔节及开花期灌水60 mm、湿润年在拔节期灌水60 mm,中度和重度盐渍化农田需在此基础上加灌1次60 mm,以上补充灌溉策略可实现6.53~8.37 t/hm^(2)的冬小麦籽粒产量,在节水的同时确保收获大于80%的潜在籽粒产量。

不同锌源叶面喷施对冬小麦和夏玉米产量及籽粒营养品质的影响

为探明不同锌源叶面肥喷施对小麦和玉米产量、籽粒矿质元素含量及锌、铁生物有效性的影响,对冬小麦-夏玉米轮作体系开展不同叶面肥喷施试验。小麦季设置去离子水(CK1)、尿素(CK2)、尿素+纳米氧化锌(U+ZnO)、尿素+壳聚糖纳米锌(U+ZnCNP)、尿素+普通七水硫酸锌(U+Zn)5种叶面肥处理;玉米季增加尿素与锌铁硒多元混合喷施处理(U+Zn/Fe/Se)。结果表明:各叶面肥喷施处理对小麦和玉米籽粒产量均无显著影响,但对籽粒微量元素含量有显著影响。不同锌源与尿素混合叶面肥对小麦籽粒锌含量强化效果由弱到强依次为U+ZnCNP<U+ZnO<U+Zn。与CK2处理相比,处理U+Zn使小麦籽粒锌含量显著提高77.7%(从22.80 mg·kg^(-1)增加至40.52 mg·kg^(-1))、籽粒植酸与锌(PA/Zn)摩尔比显著下降42.1%,使籽粒锌生物有效性(TAZ)显著提高74.5%。对于玉米,与CK2处理相比,处理U+Zn/Fe/Se使籽粒锌含量提高32.3%(从14.93 mg·kg^(-1)增加至19.60 mg·kg^(-1))、硒含量显著提高12.7倍(从17.66μg·kg^(-1)增加至242.04μg·kg^(-1))、籽粒PA/Zn摩尔比显著下降27.0%,使籽粒TAZ显著提高36.9%,使整个植株或玉米秸秆磷与锌(P/Zn)和磷与铁(P/Fe)摩尔比降低。研究表明,叶面喷施普通七水硫酸锌是提高小麦、玉米籽粒锌含量和生物有效性的最佳形式,其强化小麦籽粒锌效果优于玉米。叶面喷施尿素与锌铁硒混合溶液可同时提高玉米籽粒锌、硒含量及锌、铁生物有效性(籽粒、全株、秸秆),是解决人体或动物微量元素营养缺乏的有效农艺强化措施。

不同水分胁迫条件下DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型的调参与验证

作物模型为人们认识旱区农业生境过程并对其进行调控提供了一种有效的工具。为了探讨小麦生长模拟模型DSSAT-CERES-Wheat能否准确模拟水分胁迫条件下旱区冬小麦的生长发育和产量形成过程,同时确定参数估计和模型验证的最优方案,该研究进行了连续两季（2012.10-2013.06和2013.10-2014.06）的冬小麦分段受旱田间试验。试验将冬小麦整个生育期划分为越冬、返青、拔节、抽穗和灌浆5个主要生长阶段,每相邻两个生长阶段连续受旱,形成4个不同的受旱时段水平（D1-D4）,根据小麦生育期的需水量,设置灌水定额分别为40和80 mm 2个水平（I1和I2）,共形成8个处理,每处理3次重复,在遮雨棚内采用裂区试验布置,此外在旁边设置1个各生育期全灌水的对照处理。文中设置了5套不同的参数估计和验证方案,利用DSSAT-GLUE参数估计模块得到不同的参数估计结果。通过对比分析冬小麦物候期、单粒质量、生物量、产量、以及土壤水分含量的模拟值和实测值之间的差异,以确定利用DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型模拟旱区冬小麦生境过程的精度。结果表明,参数P1V（最适温度条件下通过春化阶段所需天数）和G3（成熟期非水分胁迫下单株茎穂标准干质量）具有较强的变异性,变异系数分别为19.07%和16.34%,受基因型-环境互作的影响较大,而其他参数的变异性则较弱,变异系数均小于10%;DSSAT-GLUE参数估计工具具有较好的收敛性,不同参数估计方案所得的参数值具有一定的一致性;不同的参数估计方案所得的模型输出结果有较大差异,其中参数估计方案1（利用两季试验中的充分灌溉处理CK数据进行参数估计,其他不同阶段受旱处理数据进行验证）的模型校正和验证精度最高,其中模型校正的绝对相对误差（absolute relative error,ARE）和相对均方根误差（relative root mean squared error,RRMSE）分别为4.89%和5.18%。在冬小麦抽穗期和灌浆期受旱时,DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型可以较好地模拟小麦的生长发育过程以及土壤水分的动态变化,但是在越冬期和返青期受旱时,模拟结果相对较差,并且随着受旱时段提前和受旱程度的加重,模拟精度将变得更低。此外,该模型无法模拟由不同水分胁迫造成的冬小麦物候期差异,需要对模型进行相应的改进。交叉验证表明DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型模拟该研究中不同水分胁迫条件下冬小麦生长和产量的总体性误差在15%~18%左右。总之,DSSAT-CERES-Wheat模型在模拟旱区冬小麦生境过程时存在着一定的局限性,若要更广泛地将该模型应用在中国干旱半干旱地区的冬小麦生产管理和研究,有必要对冬小麦营养生长阶段前期的水分胁迫响应机制和模拟方法进行进一步的深入研究。

应用ARID CROP模型对中国黄淮海地区冬小麦气候生产力的数值模拟研究

应用ＡＲＩＤＣＲＯＰ模型对黄淮海地区冬小麦气候生产力进行了数值模拟研究，给出了该地区冬小麦气候生产力Ｙｑ分布图，继而研究了水分保持最适状况时的光温生产力Ｙｗ分布状况，在此基础上给出了水分增产力Ｑ（Ｑ＝（Ｙｗ－Ｙｑ）／Ｙｑ）分布图。研究表明，黄淮海地区冬小麦气候生产力变幅在３７５０～９７５０ｋｇ／ｈｍ２之间，总的趋势北低南高，黑龙港地区出现了一个３７５０ｋｇ／ｈｍ２的低值区。水分是黄淮海北部地区冬小麦气候生产力的一个重要限制因子，当水分完全适宜时，南部淮河流域冬小麦气候生产力仅可提高５％～１０％，而黄淮海北部地区气候生产力则可提高７５％～１００％。用黄淮海地区冬小麦高产记录与生产力模拟值进行了对比分析，表明用ＡＲＩＤＣＲＯＰ模型对该地区冬小麦气候生产力进行研究是可行的，该研究为引黄灌溉提供了一定的理论依据。

晋东南地区冬小麦作物需水量特征研究

为合理利用黄河流域的水资源,进一步优化晋东南地区冬小麦作物的灌溉制度,利用阳城县1960—2019年气象资料,分析了冬小麦各生育阶段需水量和降水量年际变化,以及典型灌溉年份(25%、50%、75%、95%保证率)两者的耦合性,计算了当地冬小麦的灌溉用水量。结果表明:近60 a来,晋东南地区冬小麦全生育期需水量气候倾向率为0.593 mm/(10 a),需水量多年均值为586.09 mm;降水量气候倾向率为9.827 mm/(10 a),降水量多年均值为213.66 mm;冬小麦在拔节—抽穗期需水量气候倾向率最大。4种典型灌溉年份(25%、50%、75%、95%保证率)下,冬小麦全生育期降水与需水的耦合度依次为0.43、0.33、0.28、0.18,自然降水均无法满足冬小麦生长对水分的需求,需补充灌溉水量依次为261.74、427.45、554.34、674.66 mm。其中,除保证率25%外抽穗—灌浆期需补充灌溉水量占比最大,应分别补充灌溉水量为116.87、142.55、171.54 mm。

基于WheatSM模型参数优化的鹤壁地区冬小麦生长发育模拟研究

采用EFAST方法和SCE-UA算法优化WheatSM模型参数,采用区域模拟和单站插值的方法对2013—2017年鹤壁市冬小麦各发育期日数和产量进行模拟修订,为WheatSM作物模型在豫北地区的业务应用提供参考。研究发现:区域模拟方法对鹤壁地区冬小麦生育期开始日期的模拟效果除出苗期、越冬期的外,其他均好于单点插值方法的。单点插值方法对越冬期的模拟效果明显好于区域模拟方法的。冬小麦产量的模拟效果区域模拟方法也比单点插值方法好,但两种结果的相对误差均较大。通过对WheatSM模型得到的冬小麦气象产量模拟结果进行修订,可以明显提高模型产量模拟结果。2013—2017年鹤壁地区模拟产量的误差为-17. 92%～-2. 98%,RMSE为1114. 9 kg/hm^2,NMSE为12. 59,模拟效果较好。利用区域模拟方法可以对区域内单个站点的冬小麦生长发育和产量进行模拟,但对越冬期开始时间的模拟需要参考单点插值方法的相应结果。

基于ArcGIS Engine和IDL的冬小麦生长动态监测系统

目的:为快速便捷地掌握大范围冬小麦播种、长势及产量信息,及时为农业管理部门的分析决策提供基础数据。方法:基于C#语言集成ArcGIS Engine组件和IDL函数库,设计冬小麦识别、长势监测及产量估算等功能模块,研发冬小麦生长动态监测系统。结果:该系统可较为快速地建立冬小麦空间数据库,便捷地提取冬小麦播种、生长和收获等各个生育期冬小麦农情信息,同时具有功能强大的时空分析和预测决策辅助功能。结论:实现了包括冬小麦在内的农作物的动态生长监测,可以为管理者提供数据及强有力的决策支持。

基于DSSAT CERES-Wheat模型的未来40年冬小麦最适播期分析

在适播期内播种是促进小麦高产稳产的关键管理技术。为应对未来气候变化带来的不利影响,提高小麦高产优质主产区的冬小麦产量,本研究选取黄淮海和江淮地区作为研究区,并在研究区内选择3个代表站点,利用DSSATCERES-Wheat模型在基准时段和未来40年分别开展了4种典型浓度路径的温室气体排放气候情景(RCPs)、51个播期处理的模型模拟试验,以明确未来冬小麦生育期内气候要素和最适播期变化特征,定量分析采用最适播期管理措施对冬小麦的增产效应。分析试验结果表明:未来冬小麦生育期内气候特征呈现暖干化的趋势;冬小麦生育期天数随温度升高而缩短,缩短天数在研究区地理空间上自北向南递增;最适播期随温度升高而推迟,在各时段、各情景下均随纬度减小而推迟;相对于基准时段,3个站点2030s时段的最适播期推迟最大天数分别自北向南递增5 d、8 d和13 d,2050s时段最适播期较2030s时段有不同程度的推迟,且各站点以2050s时段RCP8.5情景下的推迟天数最多;采取最适播期播种的管理措施,在3个站点均有不同程度的增产效应,黄淮海北片的增产效应最小,黄淮海南片和江淮地区增产幅度相对较高,集中在2%~4%之间。因此,未来黄淮海和江淮地区可采取推迟播期、选择适播期的管理措施来应对气候变暖情况,提高冬小麦产量。

The Possible Effect of Climate Warming on Northern Limits of Cropping System and Crop Yield in China

Significantly increasing temperature since the 1980s in China has become a consensus under the background of global climate change and how climate change affects agriculture or even cropping systems has attracted more and more attention from Chinese government and scientists. In this study, the possible effects of climate warming on the national northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation in China from 1981 to 2007 were analyzed. Also, the possible change of crop yield caused by planting limits displacement during the periods 1950s-1981 and 1981-2007 was compared and discussed. The recognized calculation methods of agricultural climatic indices were employed. According to the indices of climatic regionalization for cropping systems, the national northern limits of cropping systems, winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation during two periods, including the 1950s-1980 and 1981-2007, were drawn with ArcGIS software. Compared with the situation during the 1950s- 1980, the northern limits of double cropping system during 1981-2007 showed significant spatial displacement in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, and Liaoning provinces and Beijing municipality, China. The northern limits of triple cropping system showed the maximum spatial displacement in Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, China. Without considering variety change and social economic factors, the per unit area grain yield of main planting patterns would increase about 54-106% if single cropping system was replaced by double cropping system, which turned out to be 27- 58% if double cropping system was replaced by triple cropping system. In Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia autonomous regions, China, the northern limits of winter wheat during 1981-2007 moved northward and expanded westward in different degrees, compared with those during the 1950s-1980. Taking Hebei Province as an example, the northern limits of winter wheat moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would averagely increase about 25% in the change region if the spring wheat was replaced by winter wheat. In Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan provinces, China, the planting northern limits of double rice moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would increase in different degrees only from the perspective of heat resource. The stable- yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward in most regions, which was caused by the decrease of local precipitation in recent years. During the past 50 yr, climate warming made the national northern limits of cropping systems move northward in different degrees, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice both moved northward, and the cropping system change would cause the increase of per unit area grain yield in the change region. However, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward due to the decrease of precipitation.

Canopy Temperature Depression as a Potential Selection Criterion for Drought Resistance in Wheat

Field studies were conducted at Bushland, Texas, USA, in 2004 to examine usefulness of canopy temperature depression （CTD）, the difference of air-canopy temperature, in screening wheat （Triticum aestivum L.） genotypes for yield under dryland and irrigated. Forty winter wheat genotypes were grown under irrigation and dryland. CTDs were recorded after heading between 1 330 and 1 530 h on 6 clear days for dryland and 9 days for irrigation. Drought susceptible index （DSI） for each genotype was calculated using mean yield under dryland and irrigated conditions. Genotypes exhibited great differences in CTD under each environment. The dryland CTDs averaged 1.33℃ ranging from -0.67 to 2.57℃, and the average irrigation CTD were 4.59℃ ranging from 3.21 to 5.62℃. A low yield reduction was observed under dryland conditions relative to irrigated conditions for high-CTD genotypes. CTD values were highly negatively correlated with DSI under dryland, and genotypes of CTDs = 1.3℃ in dryland condition were identified as drought resistant. For 21 genotypes classified as drought resistant by DSI, their CTDs were 1.68℃ for dryland and 4.35℃ for irrigation on average; for 19 genotypes classified as drought susceptible by DSI, average CTD was 0.94℃ in dryland and 4.85℃ in irrigation. The high-yield genotypes consistently had high CTD values, and the low-yield ones had low CTD values for all measurements in dryland. After heading, genotypes maintained consistent ranking for CTD. Regression results for CTD and yield suggested that the best time for taking CTD measurement was 3-4 weeks after heading in irrigation but any time before senescence in dryland. Crop water stress index （CWSI） calculated from CTD data was highly correlated with CWSI calculated from yield, which suggesting traditional costly CWSI measurement may be improved by using portable infrared thermometers. Most importantly, grain yield was highly correlated with CTD under dryland （R^2 = 0.79-0.86） and irrigation （R^2 = 0.46-0.58） conditions. These results clearly indicated grain yield and water stress can be predicted by taking CTD values in field, which can be used by breeding programs as a potential selection criterion for grain yield and drought resistance in wheat, but a second study year is needed to confirm further.