Reversal of monthly East Asian winter air temperature in 2020/21 and its predictability

In this study,the reversal of monthly East Asian winter air temperature(EAWT) in 2020/21 and its predictability were investigated.The reversal of monthly EAWT in 2020/21 was characterized by colder temperatures in early winter(December 2020 to mid-January 2021) and warmer temperatures in late winter(mid-January to February 2021).Results show that the reversal in the intensity of the Siberian high(SH) also occurred between early and late winter in 2020/21.In early winter,as the Barents-Laptev sea ice in the previous September(i.e., in2020) reached a minimum for the period 1981-2020,the SH was strengthaned via a reduction of the meridional gradient between the Arctic and East Asia.In late winter,as a sudden stratospheric warming occurred on 5 January 2021,the stratospheric polar vortex weakened,with the weakest center shifting to North America in January.Subsequently,the negative Arctic Oscillation-like structure shifted towards North America in the middle and lower troposphere,which weakened the SH in late winter.Furthermore,the predictability of the reversal in EAWT in 2020/21 was validated based on monthly and daily predictions from NCEP-CFSv2(National Centers for Environment Prediction-Climate Forecast System,version 2).The results showed that the model was unable to reproduce the monthly reversal of EAWT.However,it was able to forecast the reversal date(18 January 2021)of EAWT at lead times of 1-20 days on the daily scale.

Predicting Winter Surface Air Temperature in Northeast China

The author investigates the prediction of Northeast China's winter surface air temperature (SAT),and first forecast the year to year increment in the predic-tand and then predict the predictand.Thus,in the first step,we determined the predictors for an increment in winter SAT by analyzing the atmospheric variability associated with an increment in winter SAT.Then,multi-linear re-gression was applied to establish a prediction model for an increment in winter SAT in Northeast China.The pre-diction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.73) between the simulated and observed annual increments in winter SAT in Northeast China throughout the period 1965-2002,with a relative root mean square error of -7.9%.The prediction model makes a reasonable hindcast for 2003-08,with an average relative root mean square error of -7.2%.The prediction model can capture the in-creasing trend of winter SAT in Northeast China from 1965-2008.The results suggest that this approach to forecasting an annual increment in winter SAT in North-east China would be relevant in operational seasonal forecasts.

Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia:Multidecadal Variability and Decadal Prediction

In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.

Air–Sea Coupling Enhances the East Asian Winter Climate Response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

A simple air-sea coupled model, the atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled to a mixed-layer slab ocean model, is employed to investigate the impact of air-sea coupling on the signals of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO）. A regional coupling strategy is applied, in which coupling is switched off in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean but switched on in the open oceans elsewhere. The coupled model is forced with warm-phase AMO SST anomalies, and the modeled responses are compared with those from parallel uncoupled AGCM experiments with the same SST forcing. The results suggest that the regionally coupled responses not only resemble the AGCM simulation, but also have a stronger intensity. In comparison, the coupled responses bear greater similarity to the observational composite anomaly. Thus, air-sea coupling enhances the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO. To determine the mechanism responsible for the coupling amplification, an additional set of AGCM experiments, forced with the AMO-induced tropical SST anomalies, is conducted. The SST anomalies are extracted from the simulated AMO-induced SST response in the regionally coupled model. The results suggest that the SST anomalies contribute to the coupling amplification. Thus, tropical air-sea coupling feedback tends to enhance the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO.

Influence of October Eurasian Snow on Winter Temperature over Northeast China

This paper addresses the interannual variation of winter air temperature over Northeast China and its connection to preceding Eurasian snow cover. The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between October Eurasian snow cover and following-winter air temperature over Northeast China. The snow cover located in eastern Siberia and to the northeast of Lake Baikal plays an important role in the winter air temperature anomaly. More （less） eastern Siberia snow in October can cause an atmospheric circulation anomaly pattern in which the atmospheric pressure is higher （lower） than normal in the polar region and lower （higher） in the northern mid-high latitudes. Due to the persistence of the eastern Siberia snow from October to the following winter, the winter atmospheric anomaly is favorable （unfavorable） to the widespread movement of cold air masses from the polar region toward the northern mid-high latitudes and, hence, lower （higher） temperature over Northeast China. Simultaneously, when the October snow cover is more （less）, the SST in the northwestern Pacific is continuously lower （higher） as a whole; then, the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are reinforced （weakened）, favoring the lower （higher） temperature over Northeast China.

Sub seasonal variations of weak stratospheric polar vortex in December and its impact on Eurasian air temperature

Weak stratospheric polar vortex(WPV)events during winter months were investigated.WPV events were identified as being weakest in December,accompanied by the most dramatic increase in geopotential height over the polar region.After the onset of a December WPV event,the dynamic processes influencing Eurasian temperature can be split into two separate periods.Period I(lag of 0-25 days)is referred to as the stratosphere-troposphere interactions period,as it is mainly characterized by stratospheric signals propagating downwards.In Period I,a stratospheric negative Northern Annular Mode(NAM)pattern associated with the WPV propagates downwards,inducing a negative NAM in the troposphere.The anomalous low centers over the Mediterranean and North Pacific bring cold advection to northern Eurasia,resulting in a north-cold-south-warm dipole pattern over Eurasia.The zero line between negative and positive temperature anomalies moves southwards during days 5-20.Stratospheric cold anomalies at midlatitudes propagate downwards to high latitudes in the troposphere and contribute to the dipole structure.During PeriodⅡ(lag of 25-40 days),as downward signals from the stratosphere have vanished,the dynamic processes mainly take place within the troposphere.Specifically,a wave train is initiated from the North Atlantic region to northern Europe.The propagation of wave activity flux intensifies a cyclonic anomaly over northern Europe,which brings cold advection to Scandinavia and warm advection to central Asia.Therefore,a northwest-cold-southeast-warm dipole structure occupies Eurasia and migrates southeastwards during this period.

Energy consumption of large space atrium under nozzle outlet during winter season

Based on the thermal and velocity layer's theory,the experimental setup was established on large space atrium under nozzle outlet. A series of winter experiments were accomplished and the following conclusions could be drawn. At the sunny day of winter in Shanghai,the thermal and velocity layer are similar. The height of the both layer is 10-30 mm,and the temperature gratitude is 5-10 ℃ /m. Decreasing the angle of the nozzle outlet can increase the layer height dramatically. The maximum temperature difference of the occupant zone has relation with the angle of the nozzle outlet. The less the angle of the nozzle outlet is set,the greater the temperature difference is. The occupant temperature differences at these angles of the nozzle outlet are 5.1-4.4 ℃. The velocity of the wind is 0.02 and 0.17 m/s and they can accord with design demand. So,it can decrease the temperature gratitude by about 30% and it can save 10%-15% energy consumption.

Precursor Role of Winter Sea-Ice in the Labrador Sea for Following-Spring Precipitation over Southeastern North America and Western Europe

The role of winter sea-ice in the Labrador Sea as a precursor for precipitation anomalies over southeastern North America and Western Europe in the following spring is investigated. In general terms, as the sea ice increases, the precipitation also increases. In more detail, however, analyses indicate that both the winter sea-ice and the sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies related to increases in winter sea-ice in the Labrador Sea can persist into the following spring. These features play a forcing role in the spring atmosphere, which may be the physical mechanism behind the observational relationship between the winter sea-ice and spring precipitation anomalies. The oceanic forcings in spring include Arctic sea-ice anomalies and SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and high-latitude North Atlantic. Multi-model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulation results show that the atmospheric circulation response to the combination of sea-ice and SST is similar to that observed, which suggests that the oceanic forcings are indeed the physical reason for the enhanced spring precipitation. Sensitivity experiments conducted using an atmospheric general circulation model indicate that the increases in precipitation over southeastern North America are mainly attributable to the effect of the SST anomalies, while the increases over Western Europe are mainly due to the sea-ice anomalies. Although model simulations reveal that the SST anomalies play the primary role in the precipitation anomalies over southeastern North America, the observational statistical analyses indicate that the area of sea-ice in the Labrador Sea seems to be the precursor that best predicts the spring precipitation anomaly.

云南冬季强降温过程冷空气路径及大气环流差异

基于云南125个测站日平均气温数据,判定了1961—2020年云南冬季95次强降温过程的4种冷空气路径,对比分析了不同路径冷空气对云南降温的影响及大气环流差异.结果表明,东北路径冷空气对云南降温幅度影响最剧烈、影响空间范围最广;偏东路径出现频率最高,偏东路径和偏北路径在降温幅度和影响范围上较为接近;东南路径降温幅度和影响范围最弱,出现频率最低.超前强降温日2 d时,东北路径欧亚大陆500 hPa位势高度场上正高度距平异常区域强度和面积、700 hPa反气旋距平环流强度和西伯利亚高压均为最强,东南路径最弱,偏东路径和偏北路径介于前二者之间.东北路径500 hPa上东亚槽横槽转竖特征最明显,偏东路径和偏北路径东亚槽槽底南压加深,但转竖特征不及东北路径明显;东南路径东亚槽底部较宽广;东北路径副高呈块状面积最小,其它3种路径副高则呈带状,偏东路径副高面积最大.700 hPa上东北路径和偏东路径在日本附近有较强海平面气压负距平发展,朝鲜半岛气旋距平环流较强,其西侧较强的偏北气流引导冷空气进入云南;东南路径和偏北路径在朝鲜半岛气旋距平环流及其西侧的偏北气流较弱.在200 hPa纬向风距平场上,东北路径急流轴附近正负距平区强度最强,偏东路径沿急流轴距平分布为西正东负;东南路径正负距平区强度最弱,负距平区主要分布在急流轴北侧,偏北路径负距平区分布在急流轴南北两侧.

气候变化对商洛旱地冬小麦农艺性状的影响

研究近年来气候变化对商洛旱地冬小麦农艺性状的影响,旨在为商洛旱地冬小麦适应气候变化新品种选育提供理论指导。利用2010—2023年陕南丘陵地区商洛亚区小麦区域试验商州点记录的小麦品种小偃15农艺性状数据和商洛气象资料,统计分析小麦农艺性状和气候变化的趋势,并进行相关性、多元回归和通径分析。结果表明,近年来商洛年降水量、年平均气温以及小麦生育期降水量、气温均呈上升趋势;小麦不同生育阶段中,播种至越冬前、越冬期间、返青至孕穗期的降水量均呈上升趋势,而抽穗至成熟期降水量呈下降趋势;小麦各生育阶段的气温均呈上升趋势;小麦农艺性状穗长、穗粒数、千粒质量、有效穗数、产量均呈上升趋势,而生育期和株高呈下降趋势。相关性分析结果发现,全生育期平均气温与穗长呈极显著正相关,与穗粒数和产量均呈显著正相关,而与生育期呈极显著负相关;返青至孕穗期气温与生育期呈显著负相关;越冬期间降水量与穗长呈显著正相关;产量与穗长和穗粒数均呈极显著正相关。多元回归和通径分析结果发现,穗长、千粒质量、穗粒数、全生育期平均气温是决定产量的4个主要因子,它们共同决定了产量90.80%的变异。综合以上分析,为适应商洛地区气候变化,旱地小麦新品种选育过程中要重点关注穗长、穗粒数和生育期等性状。

中国东部冬季气温变化的主要区域空间模态及其与大气环流的关系

本文利用1956—2017年我国519个站点逐日气温资料,通过旋转经验正交函数分析方法得到了近62年我国冬季气温变化主要的区域空间模态,研究了其与大气环流的关系,并进一步使用2018—2023年上述站点冬季气温资料进行验证分析。结果表明,我国冬季气温变化有两个较为稳定的区域空间模态:第一模态主要表现为南方大部分地区出现异常低温,低温极值区位于华南和东南沿海区,称之为南方型;第二模态的气温异常信号主要集中在东北地区,称之为东北型。其中,南方型模态与赤道中太平洋的海温呈显著负相关关系,与东亚冬季风的“南北反向”模态呈显著正相关。当冬季赤道中太平洋海温异常偏冷时,东亚南部地区表现为强烈的低层偏北风距平,北方则无显著偏北风距平,造成南方大部分地区出现异常低温。冬季北极涛动与东北型低温模态有显著联系,当北极涛动呈负位相时,冷高压主要集中在极区,高压东侧盛行东北风,造成东北地区冬季气温异常偏低。近6年中,2018年与2021年冬季呈东北型低温模态,其关键环流系统接近北极涛动负位相,验证了该结论。

2023/2024年冬季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响

利用国家气象信息中心整编发布的中国台站观测资料和全球大气再分析资料,分析了2023/2024年冬季我国气候异常特征和可能成因。2023/2024年冬季,全国平均气温较常年同期偏高0.3℃,气温冷暖起伏大,总体呈现“前冬暖、后冬冷”的季节内变化特征。全国平均降水量较常年同期偏多19.8%,中东部大部地区降水偏多。东亚冬季风和西伯利亚高压强度接近常年,东亚槽偏弱。欧亚中高纬500 hPa位势高度场呈西低东高的分布形势,并具有显著的阶段性变化特征,2023年12月和2024年1月以纬向环流为主,2月转为异常经向型环流,有利于中高纬冷空气南下入侵我国。受赤道中东太平洋厄尔尼诺、热带印度洋和大西洋海温异常偏暖以及北太平洋年代际涛动负位相等因子的协同影响,冬季西太平洋副热带高压偏强、偏西,菲律宾及南海上空异常反气旋阶段性活跃,欧亚对流层高层出现沿西风急流传播的波列,有利于热带水汽向我国中东部输送,配合中高纬冷空气南下,导致该地区发生多次大范围雨雪冰冻天气过程。

集中供暖建筑不同计费模式对空气品质满意度的影响研究

为了探究寒冷地区不同供暖计费方式下空气品质满意度对热舒适度的影响,对中国河南省焦作地区某居民住宅分别于2018年、2020年两个供暖季进行了现场研究。在测量环境参数时,也采集了受试者的热舒适状况。通过对比、分析发现,在不同热计量方式下,用户的热感觉、空气品质满意度及行为调节均存在统计学上的显著差异。相较于按面积收费,按流量收费住户的热反应与空气品质满意度都更好。本研究旨在揭示空气品质满意度与热感觉、调控行为的关系,并为供暖计费方式的选择提供参考。

太原市城区冬季大气污染状况分析

利用2019—2021年冬季(12月、1月和2月)太原市城区9个国家空气质量自动监测站的空气质量指数(Air Quality Index,AQI)和PM_(10)、PM_(2.5)、NO_(2)、SO_(2)、O_(3)、CO质量浓度监测数据,运用统计学方法,分析了太原市城区2019—2021年冬季大气污染状况。总体上,太原市环境污染得到了有效控制,PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)仍为太原市冬季主要污染物。

数据中心柴油发电机冬季保温余热回收系统应用实例研究

提出了将北方地区数据中心空调制冷系统余热回收后用于室外柴油发电机缸套水冬季保温,保障柴油发电机快速启动。以实际应用数据中心为案例,介绍了该余热回收系统的设计运行原理、技术路线、具体设计实施方案。对余热回收系统的经济性及节能效果进行了分析,结果表明,柴油发电机保温余热回收系统节能率高达72.1%,年节省运行费用22.67万元,静态投资回收期为3.8 a。该余热回收系统具有初投资低、实施方便、效果显著、收益快的优点,可在北方地区数据中心进行推广。

夏热冬冷地区空气源热泵供暖结霜规律研究

基于“双碳”目标,我国各领域电能替代工作取得了蓬勃发展。在建筑领域,目前我国正在大力推广空气源热泵供暖技术,为了探究其电力替代可行性,基于空气源热泵结霜机理,提出了一种基于气象参数及水相图的结霜理论判断方法,并选取夏热冬冷地区10个典型城市进行了空气源热泵供暖结霜规律分析。结果表明,夏热冬冷地区整体较适合开展空气源热泵供暖,但工程实践中应结合不同城市结霜规律针对性制定除霜控制策略。此外,提出的空气源热泵结霜判断方法相较于传统研究具有一定优势,可有效避免热泵机组结霜时长被低估等问题。该理论方法为解决夏热冬冷地区“双碳”目标与健康舒适人居所面临的挑战提供了有力支撑。

应县北京冬奥会、冬残奥会期间空气质量分析及对策建议

近年来在举办的大型赛事中,都采取了非常措施,污染物排放量急剧下降,环境空气质量短期内大幅度改善。通过对北京冬奥会、冬残奥会期间空气质量改善成效分析,以期为今后有效施策提供依据。

冬奥会保障期间包头市空气质量预报保障成效评估

通过对冬奥会空气质量保障期间包头市的空气质量状况及预报准确率进行分析,评估保障工作成效及预报效果,得出以下结论:1.在沙尘影响程度同期最重的情况下,2022年保障期间包头市空气质量结果优于同期,保障成效显著。保障期间5项污染物浓度下降明显,管控措施成效显著;2.保障期间预报结果总体较为准确,人工订正预报准确率高于模式,后期存在预测PM2.5浓度偏低的问题;3.本次预报保障中,包头市通过建立保障方案、开展全面监测、升级预报系统、强化部门联动等保障机制,为冬奥会保障工作提供了有效支撑,本次保障经验将为包头市今后开展重大活动保障奠定基础。

基于地铁车辆冬季运营的空调能耗及采暖控制逻辑研究

地铁车辆冬暖夏凉的车厢环境能为乘客带来最舒适的乘车体验,但随之而来的车辆运营能耗一直是备受关注的话题,降低地铁车辆空调系统的运营能耗迫在眉睫。文章通过对某一项目地铁车辆冬季采暖实际运营测试数据的分析,提出了外温不同的情况下车内目标温度动态变化,相比行业内普遍应用的冬季车内目标温度不随外温变化而变化的情况,车内舒适度有了进一步提升,空调运营能耗缩减了40%以上,节能效果明显。通过优化调整目标温度和送风量,使乘客乘坐体感提升,同时节能减排效果明显。文章最后对车辆采暖控制新思路进行了探索,并综合提出了合理化建议。

重大工程建设中地质灾害综合遥感监测技术方法应用——以北京2022冬奥会延庆赛区为例

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