Significantly increasing temperature since the 1980s in China has become a consensus under the background of global climate change and how climate change affects agriculture or even cropping systems has attracted more...Significantly increasing temperature since the 1980s in China has become a consensus under the background of global climate change and how climate change affects agriculture or even cropping systems has attracted more and more attention from Chinese government and scientists. In this study, the possible effects of climate warming on the national northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation in China from 1981 to 2007 were analyzed. Also, the possible change of crop yield caused by planting limits displacement during the periods 1950s-1981 and 1981-2007 was compared and discussed. The recognized calculation methods of agricultural climatic indices were employed. According to the indices of climatic regionalization for cropping systems, the national northern limits of cropping systems, winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation during two periods, including the 1950s-1980 and 1981-2007, were drawn with ArcGIS software. Compared with the situation during the 1950s- 1980, the northern limits of double cropping system during 1981-2007 showed significant spatial displacement in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, and Liaoning provinces and Beijing municipality, China. The northern limits of triple cropping system showed the maximum spatial displacement in Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, China. Without considering variety change and social economic factors, the per unit area grain yield of main planting patterns would increase about 54-106% if single cropping system was replaced by double cropping system, which turned out to be 27- 58% if double cropping system was replaced by triple cropping system. In Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia autonomous regions, China, the northern limits of winter wheat during 1981-2007 moved northward and expanded westward in different degrees, compared with those during the 1950s-1980. Taking Hebei Province as an example, the northern limits of winter wheat moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would averagely increase about 25% in the change region if the spring wheat was replaced by winter wheat. In Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan provinces, China, the planting northern limits of double rice moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would increase in different degrees only from the perspective of heat resource. The stable- yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward in most regions, which was caused by the decrease of local precipitation in recent years. During the past 50 yr, climate warming made the national northern limits of cropping systems move northward in different degrees, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice both moved northward, and the cropping system change would cause the increase of per unit area grain yield in the change region. However, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward due to the decrease of precipitation.展开更多
北部冬麦区是我国重要的小麦主产区之一,对该麦区历年国审小麦品种进行回溯分析有助于小麦品种资源的合理利用。本研究基于产量与熟期、穗数、穗粒数、千粒重、容重、品质指数、抗病指数和抗寒指数等性状的组合,采用品种-产量×性...北部冬麦区是我国重要的小麦主产区之一,对该麦区历年国审小麦品种进行回溯分析有助于小麦品种资源的合理利用。本研究基于产量与熟期、穗数、穗粒数、千粒重、容重、品质指数、抗病指数和抗寒指数等性状的组合,采用品种-产量×性状组合(GYT,genotype by yield×trait)双标图方法对2003-2023年期间北部冬麦区47个国审小麦品种进行了综合分析和分类评价。结果表明,47个国审小麦品种可划分为4个特征显著的品种类型。其中,Ⅰ型品种综合表现优秀,在产量与早熟性、抗病性、抗寒性、千粒重和容重等性状组合上表现突出,在产量与穗数、穗粒数和品质指数组合上表现优良,在生产上推广应用价值最高,主要包括京麦179、京农16和津麦3118等8个品种。Ⅱ型品种综合表现优良,在产量与品质指数、穗数组合上表现突出,在产量与抗病指数、抗寒指数组合上表现稍差,在生产上推广应用价值较高,但应注意生产安全,主要包括京麦202、京农19和轮选158等13个品种。Ⅲ型品种的产量与抗病和抗寒指数组合最好,但在其余性状组合上表现差,综合生产应用价值有限,可作为抗性亲本。Ⅳ型品种综合表现较差,可选择单性状表现优良的品种作为育种亲本应用。根据各品种在GYT双标图ATA轴上的投影位置,筛选出综合表现优良的京麦179、京农16、津麦3118、京麦189、京麦202、京花12号、京农19、轮选158和中麦623等品种。本研究采用GYT双标图分析方法基于“产量-性状”组合水平对北部冬麦区小麦品种进行综合评价和分类研究,为其他作物和地区的类似研究提供了参考。展开更多
基金funded by the Mode Construction of Modern Farming System and Supporting Technology Research and Demonstration, China (200803028)
文摘Significantly increasing temperature since the 1980s in China has become a consensus under the background of global climate change and how climate change affects agriculture or even cropping systems has attracted more and more attention from Chinese government and scientists. In this study, the possible effects of climate warming on the national northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation in China from 1981 to 2007 were analyzed. Also, the possible change of crop yield caused by planting limits displacement during the periods 1950s-1981 and 1981-2007 was compared and discussed. The recognized calculation methods of agricultural climatic indices were employed. According to the indices of climatic regionalization for cropping systems, the national northern limits of cropping systems, winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation during two periods, including the 1950s-1980 and 1981-2007, were drawn with ArcGIS software. Compared with the situation during the 1950s- 1980, the northern limits of double cropping system during 1981-2007 showed significant spatial displacement in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, and Liaoning provinces and Beijing municipality, China. The northern limits of triple cropping system showed the maximum spatial displacement in Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, China. Without considering variety change and social economic factors, the per unit area grain yield of main planting patterns would increase about 54-106% if single cropping system was replaced by double cropping system, which turned out to be 27- 58% if double cropping system was replaced by triple cropping system. In Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia autonomous regions, China, the northern limits of winter wheat during 1981-2007 moved northward and expanded westward in different degrees, compared with those during the 1950s-1980. Taking Hebei Province as an example, the northern limits of winter wheat moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would averagely increase about 25% in the change region if the spring wheat was replaced by winter wheat. In Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan provinces, China, the planting northern limits of double rice moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would increase in different degrees only from the perspective of heat resource. The stable- yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward in most regions, which was caused by the decrease of local precipitation in recent years. During the past 50 yr, climate warming made the national northern limits of cropping systems move northward in different degrees, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice both moved northward, and the cropping system change would cause the increase of per unit area grain yield in the change region. However, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward due to the decrease of precipitation.
文摘北部冬麦区是我国重要的小麦主产区之一,对该麦区历年国审小麦品种进行回溯分析有助于小麦品种资源的合理利用。本研究基于产量与熟期、穗数、穗粒数、千粒重、容重、品质指数、抗病指数和抗寒指数等性状的组合,采用品种-产量×性状组合(GYT,genotype by yield×trait)双标图方法对2003-2023年期间北部冬麦区47个国审小麦品种进行了综合分析和分类评价。结果表明,47个国审小麦品种可划分为4个特征显著的品种类型。其中,Ⅰ型品种综合表现优秀,在产量与早熟性、抗病性、抗寒性、千粒重和容重等性状组合上表现突出,在产量与穗数、穗粒数和品质指数组合上表现优良,在生产上推广应用价值最高,主要包括京麦179、京农16和津麦3118等8个品种。Ⅱ型品种综合表现优良,在产量与品质指数、穗数组合上表现突出,在产量与抗病指数、抗寒指数组合上表现稍差,在生产上推广应用价值较高,但应注意生产安全,主要包括京麦202、京农19和轮选158等13个品种。Ⅲ型品种的产量与抗病和抗寒指数组合最好,但在其余性状组合上表现差,综合生产应用价值有限,可作为抗性亲本。Ⅳ型品种综合表现较差,可选择单性状表现优良的品种作为育种亲本应用。根据各品种在GYT双标图ATA轴上的投影位置,筛选出综合表现优良的京麦179、京农16、津麦3118、京麦189、京麦202、京花12号、京农19、轮选158和中麦623等品种。本研究采用GYT双标图分析方法基于“产量-性状”组合水平对北部冬麦区小麦品种进行综合评价和分类研究,为其他作物和地区的类似研究提供了参考。
