The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China’s population. With its implementation, t...The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China’s population. With its implementation, the country’s total population will peak later, the underage population and its proportion will increase substantially, the working-age population will experience a slower decline, and the aging of China’s population will be eased. However, the drop in the proportion of working-age people over the last 15 years has expedited the reduction of the demographic dividend, the elderly population will remain unaffected over the next 60 years, the aging of the population will continue to deepen, and at the same time, the increased child dependency burden will expand the overall dependency ratio.展开更多
Despite recent progress in assessing future population exposure,few studies have focused on the exposure of certain vulnerable groups,such as working people.Working in hot environments can increase the heat-related ri...Despite recent progress in assessing future population exposure,few studies have focused on the exposure of certain vulnerable groups,such as working people.Working in hot environments can increase the heat-related risk to human health and reduce worker productivity,resulting in broad social and economic implications.Based on the daily climatic simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)and the age group-specific population projections,we investigate future changes in working-age population exposure to heat extremes under multiple scenarios at global and continental scales.Projections show little variability in exposure across scenarios by mid-century(2031–2060),whereas significantly greater increases occur under SSP3-7.0 for the late century(2071–2100)compared to lower-end emission scenarios.Global exposure is expected to increase approximately 2-fold,6-fold and 16-fold relative to the historical time(1981–2010)under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0,respectively.Asia will have the largest absolute exposure increase,while in relative terms,the most affected region is Africa.At the global level,future exposure increases are primarily caused by climate change and the combined effect of climate and working-age population changes.Climate change is the dominant driver in enhancing future continental exposure except in Africa,where the main contributor is the combined effect.展开更多
基金received grants from the National Natural Sciences Foundation as a major project(Project Approval No.:71490731)
文摘The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China’s population. With its implementation, the country’s total population will peak later, the underage population and its proportion will increase substantially, the working-age population will experience a slower decline, and the aging of China’s population will be eased. However, the drop in the proportion of working-age people over the last 15 years has expedited the reduction of the demographic dividend, the elderly population will remain unaffected over the next 60 years, the aging of the population will continue to deepen, and at the same time, the increased child dependency burden will expand the overall dependency ratio.
基金Research Grants from National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China,No.ZDJ2021-15China Postdoctoral Science Foundation,No.2021M702771。
文摘Despite recent progress in assessing future population exposure,few studies have focused on the exposure of certain vulnerable groups,such as working people.Working in hot environments can increase the heat-related risk to human health and reduce worker productivity,resulting in broad social and economic implications.Based on the daily climatic simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)and the age group-specific population projections,we investigate future changes in working-age population exposure to heat extremes under multiple scenarios at global and continental scales.Projections show little variability in exposure across scenarios by mid-century(2031–2060),whereas significantly greater increases occur under SSP3-7.0 for the late century(2071–2100)compared to lower-end emission scenarios.Global exposure is expected to increase approximately 2-fold,6-fold and 16-fold relative to the historical time(1981–2010)under SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0,respectively.Asia will have the largest absolute exposure increase,while in relative terms,the most affected region is Africa.At the global level,future exposure increases are primarily caused by climate change and the combined effect of climate and working-age population changes.Climate change is the dominant driver in enhancing future continental exposure except in Africa,where the main contributor is the combined effect.
