Analysis and forecasts of investment scale and structure in upstream sector for oil companies based on system dynamics

Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.

Assessment of and Countermeasures against International Political Risk for Chinese Oil Companies

Considering the circumstances of Chinese oil companies and the latest development of international politics and world oil situation, this paper analyzes the implication and main factors of international political risk for Chinese oil companies, and presents the principles, mode and scoring method for the assessment of international political risk. Strategies and suggestions to manage international political risk in their overseas business are provided for Chinese oil companies.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment of Transnational Operation Environment for Chinese Oil Companies

A comprehensive method was developed to assess the transnational operation environment in host countries for Chinese oil companies. This method includes an assessment criterion system of the environment, which is to be scored by the experts. Analytical Hierarchy Process （AHP） and fuzzy mathematical methods were used to make evaluation and get the assessment result and ranking of three host countries.

Chinese Oil Companies＇ Overseas Cooperation in 2016

The paper analyzed the development and features of China's oil companies' overseas business in 2016.Despite the plummeting crude price and a weak global economy,these companies managed to do well in foreign countries.They steadily increased their shares of oil and gas in overseas oil and gas projects with their distinctive and unique ways:the three state-owned oil companies had focused on the countries involved in the One-BeltOne-Road Initiative,and others had been stressed more on international cooperation in a broader sense and areas.The small-and middle-scale companies had been matured and grew during the process.The central and local governments also played indispensable roles by providing need support for the cooperations.

Challenges of Oil Companies' Upstream Business under Low Oil Price Condition

Currently, oil companies face the ＂new normal＂ condition that the profit of their upstream business is shrinking with the plunge of oil price. This problem challenges the operation and management of the upstream business. Therefore, it is essential to find out ＆e new approaches and key points of work, to achieve the goal of realizing a quality and sustainable development. From ten aspects, this paper discusses ＆e challenges facing ＆e upstream business of oil companies and puts forward corresponding roadmaps and strategies.

Chinese Companies Set Sights on Asia-Pacific Oil Assets

Fossil fuels may be out of fashion,but sales of foreignowned resources across Asia are expected to attract a broad mix of bidders.Some of Asia’s biggest foreignowned oil and gas assets,worth more than US$40 billion,are to be sold in 2017,with potential bidders expected to include Chinese energy companies and sovereign funds.Assets to be sold include US-based Chevron’s US$1billion(0.94 billion euros)joint ownership stake with China’s state-owned CNOOC in an offshore oil field.

Analysis of the world deepwater oil and gas exploration situation

The global trends in deepwater oil and gas exploration,characteristics of deepwater oil and gas discovery,and layout of deepwater oil and gas exploration business by seven major international oil companies are systematically analyzed using commercial databases(e.g.S&P Global and Rystad)and public information of oil companies.The deepwater area is currently the most important domain for global oil and gas exploration and discovery,with the most discoveries and reserves in passive continental margin basins.The deepwater discoveries have the greatest contribution to the total newly discovered oil and gas reserves in the sea areas,with an increasing number of lithological reservoirs discovered,and oil and gas discoveries mainly distributed in the Mesozoic–Cenozoic.The seven major international oil companies are widely active in various aspects of deepwater oil and gas exploration and development,and play a leading role.Based on years of theoretical understanding of global oil and gas geology and resource evaluation,it is proposed that favorable deepwater exploration areas in the future will mainly focus on three major areas:the Atlantic coast,the Indian Ocean periphery,and the Arctic Ocean periphery.Six suggestions are put forward for expanding overseas deepwater oil and gas exploration business:first,expand the sources for obtaining multi-user seismic data and improve the scientific selection of deepwater exploration areas;second,increase efforts to obtain deepwater exploration projects in key areas;third,adopt various methods to access into/exit from resource licenses flexibly;fourth,acquire licenses with large equity and operate in“dual-exploration”model;fifth,strengthen cooperation with leading international oil companies in deepwater technology;and sixth,improve business operation capabilities and gradually transform from“non-operators”to“operators”.

Global oil and gas development in 2022:Situation,trends and enlightenment

Through analysis of four aspects,including the distribution and production of global oil and gas fields,the distribution and changes of remaining recoverable reserves,the differences in oil and gas production between regions/countries,and the development potential of oil and gas fields with production capacity not built and to be built,this paper presents the situation and trends of global oil and gas development in 2022.It is found that,in 2022,oil and gas fields are widely distributed worldwide,and upstream production activities continue to recover;the oil and gas reserves decrease slightly year on year,and the oil and gas reserves in sea areas increase significantly;the oil and gas production increases continuously,and the key resource countries make a significant contribution in oil and gas production growth;the oil and gas fields with production capacity not built and to be built hold abundant reserves,and their development potential will be gradually released with the economic benefits increase.Further analysis is conducted from the perspectives of global oil and gas resources continuity,geopolitical risks,potential of international cooperation,and upgrade of unconventional oil and gas technology.Finally,in view of core business domains and strategies under the new situation,the Chinese oil companies are recommended to:(1)keep a foothold in onshore conventional oil and gas development by virtue of their comparative advantages and learning from other’s experience in cooperation;(2)carry out pilot tests on development adjustment,and deepen the international cooperation in enhanced oil/gas recovery;(3)improve the oil and gas operation capabilities in sea areas to transform from follower as minority shareholder to joint venture and then to independent operations;and(4)seek appropriate ways for shale oil/gas development to reduce the dependence on foreign oil and gas.

2023年全球油气资源并购市场特点及前景展望

2023年,全球油气资源并购交易总数量仅为201宗,基本达到20年内最低水平;但并购交易总金额超过2335亿美元,创下自2012年以来的最高值。2023年世界油气并购市场总体呈现4个方面的特点:一是北美地区交易金额创历史新高,俄罗斯-中亚地区交易数量接近历史最低值;二是各类国际石油公司并购金额整体增加,国际石油巨头发起多宗“超级并购”;三是并购交易的评价油价创2014年来新高,与国际油价走势差异明显;四是北美地区非常规资产并购活动保持活跃,页岩油相关资产交易金额创历史新高。展望2024年,预计油气资源并购交易市场活跃程度将持续提升,国际石油公司将着手优化“并购后”资产组合,国家石油公司或将加大上游资产购买力度。

国际大石油公司敏捷型组织变革及启示——以bp、埃克森美孚为例

敏捷型组织是企业组织由封闭向开放转变的一种高级形式,属于客户价值型、利益相关者价值型的组织形态,其特征包括构建分布式价值创造模式、建立赋能式团队、形成快速决策和学习的循环模式、激活员工和加速技术迭代。传统石油公司的组织管理模式已经不能适应复杂多变的环境、多元化业务协同发展、以客户需求为导向的价值创造模式的改变等,快速、敏捷和高效的组织形式变得至关重要。bp公司的“事业部+集成管理”模式和埃克森美孚“低结构性成本”模式是向敏捷组织转变的积极探索。中国石油企业传统的直线型、职能型管理模式已经不能适应新的发展要求,需要从管理理念到实践上对企业组织体系进行敏捷化变革,包括树立敏捷型的组织管理理念、加快组织机构敏捷化转变、加强敏捷性领导力培育。

国际大型石油公司涉足锂金属矿产业务的底层逻辑与启示

近年来,国际大型石油公司相继涉足金属矿产业务,尤其是埃克森美孚公司积极进军锂金属产业链。基于国际能源格局深度调整、能源转型加速演进的背景,在阐述锂金属矿产在能源转型和新能源产业发展中的重要作用和发展趋势的基础上,分析了国际大型石油公司进军锂金属产业链的外部条件和内在基础,得出国际大型石油公司未来能源转型会实现“三个平衡”的启示,建议中国能源企业在建立战略性矿产定量化动态评价体系、加强战略性优势矿产的冶炼加工能力、稳定发展海外供应链等方面主动积极作为,为中国战略性矿产资源保供提供有力支撑,为新能源产业发展提供资源保障。

国外重点油公司风险勘探项目实施成效对标与启示

在全球前沿领域实施风险勘探获取丰厚的投资回报是国际油公司长期坚持的勘探战略,不同油公司对风险勘探的重视程度和实施成效差异较大。为了研究国外油公司风险勘探战略、风险偏好和实施效果,指导中国油公司海外油气勘探工作,利用油公司年报、公开信息和商业数据库,对2005—2022年间8家国外油公司的风险勘探项目进行分析,构建了一套项目实施成效评价指标体系,包括勘探效益、勘探投入、项目规模和风险控制4个一级指标及19个二级单项指标。通过单项指标和综合指标对标,分析对标公司在风险勘探方面的成效与经验。研究发现,各油公司在单项指标上差异显著,这与油公司的勘探战略和风险偏好有极大的关系。埃克森美孚公司综合成效评价指数最高,而碧辟因作业者风险项目少且缺乏重大商业发现,评价指数较低。基于研究结果,针对我国油公司海外油气风险勘探提出了5点启示,包括注重勘探效益、积极担任风险勘探项目作业者、维持适当风险勘探规模和投入、适当控制项目权益和制定符合公司特点的风险勘探策略。这些建议对于指导我国油公司制定海外油气勘探战略和风险勘探策略具有重要的现实意义和长远的战略价值。

世界一流油公司的开发管理体系与启示

近年来,中国石油企业积极参与国际油气项目合作,与世界一流油公司展开竞争与合作,展示了技术实力,积累了丰富经验。文章研究分析世界一流油公司的先进管理案例,系统总结一流平台在方案设计体系、实施保障体系、科技与人才支撑体系及标准规范体系建设方面的有力措施。方案设计体系建设包括对方案层级、模型迭代和先导试验的管理,实施保障体系建设包括对数据质量、审查机制和油藏健康的优化,科技与人才支撑体系建设包括对数据共享、技术创新和人才培养的完善,标准规范体系包括对管理标准、实施标准和技术标准的建设。建议我国油公司借鉴世界一流油公司先进管理经验,建立适合自身的开发管理体系,通过“1+4+5”的管理框架,建立以开发方案为核心的组织管理体系;通过“1+6+3”的执行方式,形成以油藏模型为核心的方案编制模式,促进企业快速成长为世界一流企业。

国内外石油公司参与国际组织的现状及对中国公司的建议

把国际组织分为政府间国际组织和非政府间的行业组织和学术组织三类,选取七大国际石油公司和10家具有代表性的国家石油公司,调研国外大型石油公司参与度较高的100余家国际组织,发现石油公司对于不同类型国际组织的参与渠道、关注议题和价值作用各不相同。国外石油公司根据自身发展需要广泛且深入参加各类国际组织,对其行业引领、科技创新、人才培养等方面都具有推动作用。目前,中国的石油公司对各类国际组织的参与计划、参与范围、参与深度和参与效果等方面仍需进一步提升。对标国际大石油公司经验做法,结合中国油气行业发展趋势与转型理念,提出三点建议:一是关注重点地区的政府间国际组织;二是逐步提升在非政府间行业组织的参与广度与深度;三是发挥学术组织优势,自主打造多元平台,推动能源行业进一步高质量发展,实现高质量对外开放。

五大国际石油公司2023年主要业绩和战略动向分析

2023年,地缘政治紧张局势及其外溢影响对油气安全供应和供应链韧性产生较大冲击。受油气价格下降、炼油利润率下降、资产减值等影响,埃克森美孚、bp、壳牌、雪佛龙、道达尔能源五大国际石油公司营业收入和净利润出现较大幅度下降。埃克森美孚的油气储量、原油产量均为五大国际石油公司之首,雪佛龙的天然气产量最大。五大国际石油公司在油气储量、油气产量、原油加工量、总资产等方面的规模实力都比2022年有所下降;油气操作成本控制成效显著,研发投入得到进一步加强。五大国际石油公司注重油气业务与可再生能源的均衡发展、股东和资本市场满意度、ESG实施效果、资产经营和资本运营双轮驱动发展以及油气业务与能源转型协同。建议中国石油企业借鉴国际石油公司能源转型实施路径,采取相关多元化发展思路,注重挖掘存量资产和增量投资的协同耦合。

中国公司海外上游油气项目获取30年历程回顾与思考

1993年中国公司开始走向海外拓展上游油气业务,其发展历程是一部波澜壮阔、筚路蓝缕的奋斗史,也是一部艰难求索、不断成长的学习史。纵观30年中国公司海外上游油气项目获取的拓展之路,可划分为尝试起步、稳健发力、规模发展和优化调整4个阶段。中国公司“走出去”的上游油气项目获取之路和实施效果展现出5个特点:(1)高油价期间并购项目多,低油价期间招标项目多;(2)中国石油、中国石化、中国海油“三桶油”后续发展有一定基础,但维持现有规模压力大;(3)高油价期间“走的急”,“小大非”项目略显被动;(4)作业者项目掌控力强,自主勘探效益好;(5)政府主导项目有保障,全方位合作受益多。在此基础上得出4点启示,为中国公司油气业务“走出去、走上去”高质量发展提供有益的借鉴:(1)紧跟国家战略,深化产业合作;(2)保持战略定力,聚焦优势领域;(3)继续争当作业者,多拿勘探项目;(4)强调优势互补,携手共克难关。在全球油气资产日益复杂的大背景下,中国公司只有充分发挥比较优势,弥补自身弱项的同时有效提升与国际大型石油公司的竞争力,才能获取更多的优质海外上游油气项目,取得良好的经营业绩,有效保障国家能源安全。