Reference evapotranspiration （ETo） is often used to estimate actual evapotranspiration in water balance studies. In this study, the present and future spatial distributions and temporal trends of ETo in the Xiangjia...Reference evapotranspiration （ETo） is often used to estimate actual evapotranspiration in water balance studies. In this study, the present and future spatial distributions and temporal trends of ETo in the Xiangjiang River Basin （XJRB） in China were analyzed. ETo during the period from 1961 to 2010 was calculated with historical meteorological data using the FAO Penman-Monteith （FAO P-M） method, while ETo during the period from 2011 to 2100 was downscaled from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） outputs under two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway 4.5 and representative concentration pathway 8.5 （RCP45 and RCP85）, using the statistical downscaling model （SDSM）. The spatial distribution and temporal trend of ETo were interpreted with the inverse distance weighted （IDW） method and Mann-Kendall test method, respectively. Results show that： （1） the mean annual ETo of the XJRB is 1 006.3 mm during the period from 1961 to 2010, and the lowest and highest values are found in the northeast and northwest parts due to the high latitude and spatial distribution of climatic factors, respectively; （2） the SDSM performs well in simulating the present ETo and can be used to predict the future ETo in the XJRB; and （3） CMIP5 predicts upward trends in annual ETo under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios during the period from 2011 to 2100. Compared with the reference period （1961-1990）, ETo increases by 9.8%, 12.6%, and 15.6% under the RCP45 scenario and 10.2%, 19.1%, and 27.3% under the RCP85 scenario during the periods from 2011 to 2040, from 2041 to 2070, and from 2071 to 2100, respectively. The predicted increasing ETo under the RCP85 scenario is greater than that under the RCP45 scenario during the period from 2011 to 2100.展开更多
Global climate change and increased human consumption have aggravated the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of watershed water resources, affecting the water provision supply and demand state. However, this problem h...Global climate change and increased human consumption have aggravated the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of watershed water resources, affecting the water provision supply and demand state. However, this problem has often been ignored. The present study used the Xiangjiang River basin(XRB) as the study area, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST) model, demand quantification model,supply–demand ratio, and water flow formula were applied to explore the spatial heterogeneity, flow, and equilibrium between water supply and demand. The results demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity in the upstream, midstream, and downstream regions.The areas of water shortage were mainly located the downstream of the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration, and the Hengyang basin was the most scarcity area. Affected by terrain gradients and human needs, water flow varied from-16.33 × 10^(8) m^(3) to 13.69 × 10^(8) m^(3)from the upstream to the downstream area, which provided a possibility to reduce spatial heterogeneity. In the future, measures such as strengthening water resource system control,sponge city construction, and dynamic monitoring technology should be taken to balance the supply and demand of water in different river sections of the basin. This study can provide references for regulating water resources allocation in different reaches of the basin.展开更多
Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') pr...Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway(RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020 s and increase in the 2030 s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050 are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from-7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.展开更多
Ecological compensation is a new resource and environment management model.As one of the main areas for implementing ecological compensation policies,basin ecological compensation has become an important measure for e...Ecological compensation is a new resource and environment management model.As one of the main areas for implementing ecological compensation policies,basin ecological compensation has become an important measure for encouraging basin pollution control projects and improving the quality of regional economic development.By applying the basic game analysis of evolutionary game theory and building an evolutionary game model with a“reward-punishment”mechanism,this paper compares the interest-related decision-making behaviors of the upstream and downstream stakeholders of basin ecological compensation.By using data on the water quality of Xiangjiang River Basin,this paper calculates the rewards and penalties in different intervals by building a parametric regression mathematical model and employing the local linear regression method.Results show that a decline in water quality should be fined RMB 925500 yuan,an improvement in water quality should be awarded RMB 1227800 yuan,and a deteriorating water quality should be severely fined RMB 5087600 yuan.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51339004 and 51279138)
文摘Reference evapotranspiration （ETo） is often used to estimate actual evapotranspiration in water balance studies. In this study, the present and future spatial distributions and temporal trends of ETo in the Xiangjiang River Basin （XJRB） in China were analyzed. ETo during the period from 1961 to 2010 was calculated with historical meteorological data using the FAO Penman-Monteith （FAO P-M） method, while ETo during the period from 2011 to 2100 was downscaled from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） outputs under two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway 4.5 and representative concentration pathway 8.5 （RCP45 and RCP85）, using the statistical downscaling model （SDSM）. The spatial distribution and temporal trend of ETo were interpreted with the inverse distance weighted （IDW） method and Mann-Kendall test method, respectively. Results show that： （1） the mean annual ETo of the XJRB is 1 006.3 mm during the period from 1961 to 2010, and the lowest and highest values are found in the northeast and northwest parts due to the high latitude and spatial distribution of climatic factors, respectively; （2） the SDSM performs well in simulating the present ETo and can be used to predict the future ETo in the XJRB; and （3） CMIP5 predicts upward trends in annual ETo under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios during the period from 2011 to 2100. Compared with the reference period （1961-1990）, ETo increases by 9.8%, 12.6%, and 15.6% under the RCP45 scenario and 10.2%, 19.1%, and 27.3% under the RCP85 scenario during the periods from 2011 to 2040, from 2041 to 2070, and from 2071 to 2100, respectively. The predicted increasing ETo under the RCP85 scenario is greater than that under the RCP45 scenario during the period from 2011 to 2100.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant number 42171258,41877084)Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(grant number 2021JJ30448)。
文摘Global climate change and increased human consumption have aggravated the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of watershed water resources, affecting the water provision supply and demand state. However, this problem has often been ignored. The present study used the Xiangjiang River basin(XRB) as the study area, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST) model, demand quantification model,supply–demand ratio, and water flow formula were applied to explore the spatial heterogeneity, flow, and equilibrium between water supply and demand. The results demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity in the upstream, midstream, and downstream regions.The areas of water shortage were mainly located the downstream of the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration, and the Hengyang basin was the most scarcity area. Affected by terrain gradients and human needs, water flow varied from-16.33 × 10^(8) m^(3) to 13.69 × 10^(8) m^(3)from the upstream to the downstream area, which provided a possibility to reduce spatial heterogeneity. In the future, measures such as strengthening water resource system control,sponge city construction, and dynamic monitoring technology should be taken to balance the supply and demand of water in different river sections of the basin. This study can provide references for regulating water resources allocation in different reaches of the basin.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.41330854 and 41371063)the National Key Research and Development Programs of China(Grants No.2016YFA0601601 and2016YFA0601501)
文摘Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway(RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020 s and increase in the 2030 s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050 are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from-7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.
基金funded by the Key Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.70431006)the Key Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research,Ministry of Education of China(Grant No.16JZD0013).
文摘Ecological compensation is a new resource and environment management model.As one of the main areas for implementing ecological compensation policies,basin ecological compensation has become an important measure for encouraging basin pollution control projects and improving the quality of regional economic development.By applying the basic game analysis of evolutionary game theory and building an evolutionary game model with a“reward-punishment”mechanism,this paper compares the interest-related decision-making behaviors of the upstream and downstream stakeholders of basin ecological compensation.By using data on the water quality of Xiangjiang River Basin,this paper calculates the rewards and penalties in different intervals by building a parametric regression mathematical model and employing the local linear regression method.Results show that a decline in water quality should be fined RMB 925500 yuan,an improvement in water quality should be awarded RMB 1227800 yuan,and a deteriorating water quality should be severely fined RMB 5087600 yuan.
