This paper presents a statistical scheme for the seasonal forecasting of North China's surface air temperature (NCSAT) during winter. Firstly, a prediction model for an decrease or increase of winter NCSAT is esta...This paper presents a statistical scheme for the seasonal forecasting of North China's surface air temperature (NCSAT) during winter. Firstly, a prediction model for an decrease or increase of winter NCSAT is established, whose predictors are available for no later than the previous September, as this is the most favorable month for seasonal forecasting up to two months ahead.The predicted NCSAT is then derived as the sum of the predicted increment of NCSAT and the previous NCSAT. The scheme successfully predicts the interannual and the decadal variability of NCSAT. Additionally, the advantages of the prediction scheme are discussed.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KZCX2-YW-QN202)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2010CB9503042 and 2009CB421406)strategic technological program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA05090426)
文摘This paper presents a statistical scheme for the seasonal forecasting of North China's surface air temperature (NCSAT) during winter. Firstly, a prediction model for an decrease or increase of winter NCSAT is established, whose predictors are available for no later than the previous September, as this is the most favorable month for seasonal forecasting up to two months ahead.The predicted NCSAT is then derived as the sum of the predicted increment of NCSAT and the previous NCSAT. The scheme successfully predicts the interannual and the decadal variability of NCSAT. Additionally, the advantages of the prediction scheme are discussed.
