Impact point prediction guidance of ballistic missile in high maneuver penetration condition

An impact point prediction(IPP) guidance based on supervised learning is proposed to address the problem of precise guidance for the ballistic missile in high maneuver penetration condition.An accurate ballistic trajectory model is applied to generate training samples,and ablation experiments are conducted to determine the mapping relationship between the flight state and the impact point.At the same time,the impact point coordinates are decoupled to improve the prediction accuracy,and the sigmoid activation function is improved to ameliorate the prediction efficiency.Therefore,an IPP neural network model,which solves the contradiction between the accuracy and the speed of the IPP,is established.In view of the performance deviation of the divert control system,the mapping relationship between the guidance parameters and the impact deviation is analysed based on the variational principle.In addition,a fast iterative model of guidance parameters is designed for reference to the Newton iteration method,which solves the nonlinear strong coupling problem of the guidance parameter solution.Monte Carlo simulation results show that the prediction accuracy of the impact point is high,with a 3 σ prediction error of 4.5 m,and the guidance method is robust,with a 3 σ error of 7.5 m.On the STM32F407 singlechip microcomputer,a single IPP takes about 2.374 ms,and a single guidance solution takes about9.936 ms,which has a good real-time performance and a certain engineering application value.

Traffic prediction enabled dynamic access points switching for energy saving in dense networks

To meet the ever-increasing traffic demand and enhance the coverage of cellular networks,network densification is one of the crucial paradigms of 5G and beyond mobile networks,which can improve system capacity by deploying a large number of Access Points(APs)in the service area.However,since the energy consumption of APs generally accounts for a substantial part of the communication system,how to deal with the consequent energy issue is a challenging task for a mobile network with densely deployed APs.In this paper,we propose an intelligent AP switching on/off scheme to reduce the system energy consumption with the prerequisite of guaranteeing the quality of service,where the signaling overhead is also taken into consideration to ensure the stability of the network.First,based on historical traffic data,a long short-term memory method is introduced to predict the future traffic distribution,by which we can roughly determine when the AP switching operation should be triggered;second,we present an efficient three-step AP selection strategy to determine which of the APs would be switched on or off;third,an AP switching scheme with a threshold is proposed to adjust the switching frequency so as to improve the stability of the system.Experiment results indicate that our proposed traffic forecasting method performs well in practical scenarios,where the normalized root mean square error is within 10%.Furthermore,the achieved energy-saving is more than 28% on average with a reasonable outage probability and switching frequency for an area served by 40 APs in a commercial mobile network.

A geographical similarity-based sampling method of non-fire point data for spatial prediction of forest fires

Understanding the mechanisms and risks of forest fires by building a spatial prediction model is an important means of controlling forest fires.Non-fire point data are important training data for constructing a model,and their quality significantly impacts the prediction performance of the model.However,non-fire point data obtained using existing sampling methods generally suffer from low representativeness.Therefore,this study proposes a non-fire point data sampling method based on geographical similarity to improve the quality of non-fire point samples.The method is based on the idea that the less similar the geographical environment between a sample point and an already occurred fire point,the greater the confidence in being a non-fire point sample.Yunnan Province,China,with a high frequency of forest fires,was used as the study area.We compared the prediction performance of traditional sampling methods and the proposed method using three commonly used forest fire risk prediction models:logistic regression(LR),support vector machine(SVM),and random forest(RF).The results show that the modeling and prediction accuracies of the forest fire prediction models established based on the proposed sampling method are significantly improved compared with those of the traditional sampling method.Specifically,in 2010,the modeling and prediction accuracies improved by 19.1%and 32.8%,respectively,and in 2020,they improved by 13.1%and 24.3%,respectively.Therefore,we believe that collecting non-fire point samples based on the principle of geographical similarity is an effective way to improve the quality of forest fire samples,and thus enhance the prediction of forest fire risk.

Lossy Point Cloud Attribute Compression with Subnode-Based Prediction

Recent years have witnessed that 3D point cloud compression(PCC)has become a research hotspot both in academia and industry.Especially in industry,the Moving Picture Expert Group(MPEG)has actively initiated the development of PCC standards.One of the adopted frameworks called geometry-based PCC(G-PCC)follows the architecture of coding geometry first and then coding attributes,where the region adaptive hierarchical transform(RAHT)method is introduced for the lossy attribute compression.The upsampled transform domain prediction in RAHT does not sufficiently explore the attribute correlations between neighbor nodes and thus fails to further reduce the attribute redundancy between neighbor nodes.In this paper,we propose a subnode-based prediction method,where the spatial position relationship between neighbor nodes is fully considered and prediction precision is further promoted.We utilize some already-encoded neighbor nodes to facilitate the upsampled transform domain prediction in RAHT by means of a weighted average strategy.Experimental results have illustrated that our proposed attribute compression method shows better rate-distortion(R-D)performance than the latest MPEG G-PCC(both on reference software TMC13-v22.0 and GeS-TM-v2.0).

Projectile impact point prediction method based on GRNN

In order to forecast projectile impact points quickly and accurately,aprojectile impact point prediction method based on generalized regression neural network（GRNN）is presented.Firstly,the model of GRNN forecasting impact point is established;secondly,the particle swarm algorithm（PSD）is used to optimize the smooth factor in the prediction model and then the optimal GRNN impact point prediction model is obtained.Finally,the numerical simulation of this prediction model is carried out.Simulation results show that the maximum range error is no more than 40 m,and the lateral deviation error is less than0.2m.The average time of impact point prediction is 6.645 ms,which is 1 300.623 ms less than that of numerical integration method.Therefore,it is feasible and effective for the proposed method to forecast projectile impact points,and thus it can provide a theoretical reference for practical engineering applications.

Adaptive prediction system of sintering through point based on self-organize artificial neural network

A soft sensing method of burning through point (BTP) was described and a new predictive parameter—the mathematics inflexion point of waste gas temperature curve in the middle of the strand was proposed. The artificial neural network was used in predicting BTP, modification on backpropagation algorithm was made in order to improve the convergence and self organize the hidden layer neurons. The adaptive prediction system developed on these techniques shows its characters such as fast, accuracy, less dependence on production data. The prediction of BTP can be used as operation guidance or control parameter.[

Impact Point Prediction and Lateral Correction Analysis of Two-dimensional Trajectory Correction Projectiles

Compared with the one-dimensional trajectory correction technology which adjusts longitudinal range, not only does the two-dimensional trajectory correction technology adjust the force in velocity direction, but also need to modulate the lateral force or trajectory (perpendicular to the vertical plane of fire direction). Therefore, the structure of control cabin of two-dimensional trajectory correction projectile (TDTCP) is more complicated than that of one-dimensional trajectory correction projectile (ODTCP). To simplify the structure of control cabin of TDTCP and reduce the cost, a scheme of adding a damping disk to the control cabin of ODTCP has been developed recently. The damping disk is unfolded at the right moment during its flight to change the ballistic drift of spin stabilized projectile. For this technical scheme of TDTCP, a fast and accurate impact point prediction method based on extended Kalman filter is presented. An approximate formula for predicting the ballistic drift and trajectory correction quantity is deduced. And the lateral correction capability for different fire angles and its influencing factors are analyzed. All the work is valuable for further research.

Approach for Predicting the Knowledge Points of Math Questions

In order to provide high-quality learning services,various online systems should possess the fundamental ability to predict the knowledge points and units to which a given test question belongs.The existing methods typically rely on manual labeling or traditional machine learning methods.Manual labeling methods have high time costs and high demands for human resources,while traditional machine learning methods only focus on the shallow features of the topics,ignoring the deep semantic relationship between the topic text and the knowledge point units.These two methods have relatively large limitations in practical applications.This paper proposes a convolutional neural network method combined with multiple features to predict the knowledge point units.We construct a binary classification dataset in the three grades of primary mathematics.Considering the supplementary role of Pinyin to Chinese text and the unique identification characteristics of Unicode encoding for characters,we obtain the Pinyin representation and the Unicode encoding representation of the original Chinese text.Then,we put the three representation methods into the convolutional neural network for training,obtain three kinds of semantic vectors,fuse them,and finally obtain higher-dimensional fusion features.Our experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves good performance in predicting the knowledge units of test questions.

Future Point Estimation Method for Unpowered Gliding Targets

In modern warfare,unpowered glide munitions,represented by JDAM,are widely used.Accurately predicting the future trajectory of such targets is crucial for intercepting them.This paper proposes a future point prediction method for unpowered gliding targets based on attitude computation.By estimating the current state of the target,we derive the target’s attitude coordinate system.Subsequently,the paper analyzes the forces acting on the target and updates the state transition matrix,ultimately calculating the future position of the target.Experimental results show that,compared to traditional methods,this approach improves the accuracy of future point predictions by 9%to 45%.

Study on the Prediction of Rice Blast Based on the Unbiased GM (1,1) Model

To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM （1,1） model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new model and unbiased GM （1, 1 ） model are applied to predict the occurrence areas of rice blast during 2005 -2010. Predicting outcomes show that the prediction accuracy of five-point unbiased sliding optimized GM （1, 1 ） model is higher than the unbiased GM （1,1） model. Finally, combined with the prediction results, the author provides some suggestion for Enshi District in the prevention and control of rice blast in 2010.

Capacity degradation analysis and knee point prediction for lithium-ion batteries

Analyzing capacity degradation characteristics and accurately predicting the knee point of capacity are crucial for the safety management of lithium-ion batteries(LIBs).However,the degradation mechanism of LIBs is complex.A key but challenging problem is how to clarify the degradation mechanism and predict the knee point.According to the external characteristics such as capacity decline gradievnt and the peak value of increment capacity curve(IC curve),the capacity degradation can be divided into four stages,including initial decline stage,slow decline stage,transition stage and high-speed decline stage.The degradation mechanism of LIBs is compared from the longitudinal and horizontal aspects,respectively.Among them,the battery usage from the initial stage to the end of life(EOL)is longitudinal analysis.The battery under different conditions,such as charging and discharging,different discharge rate,different cathode material degradation mechanism is horizontal analysis.Moreover,a method based on neural network is proposed to predict the knee point.Two features are used to predict the capacity and cycle of the knee point,which are the gradient of the capacity degradation curve and the difference of the IC curve with the maximum correlation.The experimental results show that a two-dimensional surface can be obtained using only the first 100 cycles,which can provide a reference for the position of the knee point accurately prediction.

Position Group Contribution Method for Predicting the Normal Boiling Point of Organic Compounds

A new position group contribution model is proposed for the estimation of normal boiling data of organic compounds involving a carbon chain from C2 to C18.The characteristic of this method is the use of position distribution function.It could distinguish most of isomers that include cis-or trans-structure from organic compounds.Contributions for hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon derivatives containing oxygen,nitrogen,chlorine,bromine and sulfur,are given.Compared with the predictions,results made use of the most common existing group contribution methods,the overall average absolute difference of boiling point predictions of 417 organic compounds is 4.2 K;and the average absolute percent derivation is 1.0%,which is compared with 12.3 K and 3.2% with the method of Joback,12.1 K and 3.1% with the method of Constantinou-Gani.This new position contribution groups method is not only much more accurate but also has the advantages of simplicity and stability.

Maximizing the Absorbed Power of A Point Absorber Using An FA-Based Optimized Model Predictive Control

This paper presents an extended model predictive controller for maximizing the absorbed power of a point absorber wave energy converter. Owing to the great influence of controller parameters upon the absorbed power, the optimization of these parameters is carried out for the first time by a firefly algorithm(FA). Error, the difference between output velocity of buoy and input wave speed which leads to power maximization in the optimized MPC is compared with the classical MPC. Simulation results indicate that given the high accuracy and acceptable speed of the algorithm, it can adjust the parameters of the controller to the point where system error decreased effectively and the absorbed energy increased about 4 MW.

An Algorithm for Determination of Projectile Attitude Angles in Projectile Trajectory Prediction

A fast and accurate algorithm is established in this paper to increase the precision of ballistic trajectory prediction.The algorithm is based on the six-degree-of-freedom(6 DOF)trajectory equations,to estimate the projectile attitude angles in every measuring time.Hereby,the algorithm utilizes the Davidon-Fletcher-Powell(DFP)method to solve nonlinear equations and Doppler radar trajectory test information containing only position coordinates of the projectile to reconstruct the angular information.The″position coordinates by the test″and″angular displacements by reconstruction″at the end phase of the radar measurement are used as an initial value for the trajectory computation to extrapolate the trajectory impact point.The numerical simulations validate the proposed method and demonstrate that the estimated impact point agrees very well with the real one.Morover,other artillery trajectory can be predicted by the algorithm,and other trajectory models,such as 4 DOF and 5 DOF models,can also be incorporated into the proposed algorithm.

Thermodynamic prediction of the composition of Fe-based amorphous alloys

The liquidus univariant lines of the Fe-Nb-B ternary system have been thermodynamically calculated by means of CALPHAD method and Fe-based thermodynamic data. It is found that there are two eutectic reactions in the Fe-rich corner,that is,（1） L（Fe-3Nb-15B） →α＋γ＋ M2B （1430 K）,and （2） L（Fe-10Nb-27B） → FeB ＋ Lc14 ＋ M2B （1575 K）. Moreover,the eutectic points are very close to the compositions with high glass forming ability determined experimentally. This means that it is feasible to design the compositions of multicomponent bulk metallic glasses by looking for the eutectic points in the Fe-Nb-B system by means of thermodynamic calculation.

PPA BASED PREDICTION-CORRECTION METHODS FOR MONOTONE VARIATIONAL INEQUALITIES

In this paper we study the proximal point algorithm (PPA) based predictioncorrection (PC) methods for monotone variational inequalities. Each iteration of these methods consists of a prediction and a correction. The predictors are produced by inexact PPA steps. The new iterates are then updated by a correction using the PPA formula. We present two profit functions which serve two purposes: First we show that the profit functions are tight lower bounds of the improvements obtained in each iteration. Based on this conclusion we obtain the convergence inexactness restrictions for the prediction step. Second we show that the profit functions are quadratically dependent upon the step lengths, thus the optimal step lengths are obtained in the correction step. In the last part of the paper we compare the strengths of different methods based on their inexactness restrictions.

Research on Remaining Useful Life Prediction Method of Rolling Bearing Based on Health Indicator Extraction and Trajectory Enhanced Particle Filter

Aiming at the difficulty of mining fault prognosis starting points and constructing prognostic models for remaining useful life(RUL)prediction of rolling bearings,a RUL prediction method is proposed based on health indicator(HI)extraction and trajectory-enhanced particle filter(TE-PF).By extracting a HI that can accurately track the trending of bearing degradation and combining it with the early fault enhancement technology,early abnormal sample nodes can be mined to provide more samples with fault information for the construction and training of subsequent prediction models.Aiming at the problem that traditional degradation rate models based on PF are vulnerable to HI mutations,a TE-PF prediction method is proposed based on comprehensive utilization of historical degradation information to timely modify prediction model parameters.Results from a rolling bearing prognostic study show that prediction starting points can be accurately detected and a reasonable prediction model can be conveniently constructed by the RUL prediction method based on HI amplitude abnormal detection and TE-PF.Furthermore,aiming at the RUL prediction problem under the condition of HI mutation,RUL prediction with probability and statistics characteristics under a confidence interval can be obtained based on the method proposed.

Multiobjective economic model predictive control using utopia-tracking for the wet flue gas desulphurization system

Efficient control of the desulphurization system is challenging in maximizing the economic objective while reducing the SO_(2) emission concentration. The conventional optimization method is generally based on a hierarchical structure in which the upper optimization layer calculates the steady-state results and the lower control layer is responsible to drive the process to the target point. However, the conventional hierarchical structure does not take the economic performance of the dynamic tracking process into account. To this end, multi-objective economic model predictive control(MOEMPC) is introduced in this paper, which unifies the optimization and control layers in a single stage. The objective functions are formulated in terms of a dynamic horizon and to balance the stability and economic performance. In the MOEMPC scheme, economic performance and SO_(2) emission performance are guaranteed by tracking a set of utopia points during dynamic transitions. The terminal penalty function and stabilizing constraint conditions are designed to ensure the stability of the system. Finally, an optimized control method for the stable operation of the complex desulfurization system has been established. Simulation results demonstrate that MOEMPC is superior over another control strategy in terms of economic performance and emission reduction, especially when the desulphurization system suffers from frequent flue gas disturbances.

Trends of Shoreline Position: An Approach to Future Prediction for Balasore Shoreline, Odisha, India

The present study aims to analyze the shift in shoreline due to coastal processes and formulate available for best estimate of future shoreline positions based on precedent shorelines. Information on rates and trends of shoreline change can be used to improve the understanding of the underlying causes and potential effects of coastal erosion which can support informed coastal management decisions. In this paper, researchers go over the changes in the recent positions of the shoreline of the Balasore coast for the 38 years from 1975 through 2013. The study area includes the Balasore coastal region from Rasalpur to Udaypur together with Chandipur, Choumukh, Chandrabali as well as Bichitrapur. Transects wise shoreline data base were developed for approximately 67 kilometers of shoreline and erosional/accretional scenario has also been analysed by delineating the shoreline from Landsat imageries of 1975, 1980, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2013. A simple Linear Regression Model and End Point Rate (EPR) have been adopted to take out the rate of change of shoreline and its future positions, based on empirical observations at 67 transects along the Balasore coast. It is found that the north eastern part of Balasore coast in the vicinity of Subarnarekha estuary and Chandrabali beach undergo high rates of shore line shift. The shoreline data were integrated for long- (about 17 years) and short-term (about 7 years) shift rates analysis to comprehend the shoreline change and prediction. For the prediction of future shoreline, the model has been validated with the present shoreline position (2013). The rate of shoreline movement calculated from the fixed base line to shoreline position of 1975, 1980, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 and based on this, the estimated shoreline of 2013 was calculated. The estimated shoreline was compared with the actual shoreline delineated from satellite imagery of 2013. The model error or positional shift at each sample point is observed. The positional error varies from??4.82 m to 212.41 m. It has been found that model prediction error is higher in the left hand side of river Subarnarekha. The overall error for the entire predicted shoreline was found to be 41.88 m by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). In addition, it was tested by means difference between actual and predicted shoreline positions using “t” test and it has been found that predicted shore line is not significantly different from actual shoreline position at (t132 = 0.278) p < 0.01.

Attention-Based Multi-Scale Prediction Network for Time-Series Data

Time series data is a kind of data accumulated over time,which can describe the change of phenomenon.This kind of data reflects the degree of change of a certain thing or phenomenon.The existing technologies such as LSTM and ARIMA are better than convolutional neural network in time series prediction,but they are not enough to mine the periodicity of data.In this article,we perform periodic analysis on two types of time series data,select time metrics with high periodic characteristics,and propose a multi-scale prediction model based on the attention mechanism for the periodic trend of the data.A loss calculation method for traffic time series characteristics is proposed as well.Multiple experiments have been conducted on actual data sets.The experiments show that the method proposed in this paper has better performance than commonly used traffic prediction methods(ARIMA,LSTM,etc.)and 3%-5%increase on MAPE.