Impact of Sophisticated Stationary Forecast Techniques on the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain

The bullwhip effect in a multistage supply chain was analyzed using sophisticated stationary forecasts (third order moving average and third order exponential smoothing forecasts). The third order exponential smoothing and third order moving average forecasts sometimes have a variance reducing effect on the supply chain.In a supply chain with positively correlated or independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) demands, the order variance based on simple moving average forecast (or simple exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on second order moving average forecast (or second order exponential smoothing forecast),and the order variance based on second order moving average forecast( or second order exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on third order moving average forecast( or third order exponential smoothing forecast). In addition, for i.i.d demands, third order exponential smoothing forecast leads to a larger variation than third order moving average forecast.

Blind source separation of ship-radiated noise based on generalized Gaussian model

When the distribution of the sources cannot be estimated accurately, the ICA algorithms failed to separate the mixtures blindly. The generalized Gaussian model （GGM） is presented in ICA algorithm since it can model non- Ganssian statistical structure of different source signals easily. By inferring only one parameter, a wide class of statistical distributions can be characterized. By using maximum likelihood （ML） approach and natural gradient descent, the learning rules of blind source separation （BSS） based on GGM are presented. The experiment of the ship-radiated noise demonstrates that the GGM can model the distributions of the ship-radiated noise and sea noise efficiently, and the learning rules based on GGM gives more successful separation results after comparing it with several conventional methods such as high order cumnlants and Gaussian mixture density function.

Supervisory Control of Fuzzy Discrete Event Systems Based on Agent

FDES(fuzzy discrete event systems) can effectively represent a kind of complicated systems involving deterministic uncertainties and vagueness as well as human subjective observation and judgement from the view of discrete events, here the information system is divided into some independent intelligent entitative Agents. The concept of information processing state based on Agents was proposed. The processing state of Agent can be judged by some assistant observation parameters about the Agent and its environment around, and the transition among these states can be represented by FDES based on rules. In order to ensure the harmony of the Agents for information processing, its upstream and downstream buffers are considered in the modeling of the Agent system, and the supervisory controller based on FDES is constructed. The processing state of Agent can be adjusted by the supervisory controller to improve the stability of the system and the efficiency of resource utilization during the process according to the control policies. The result of its application was provided to illustrate the validity of the supervisory adjustment.

Environmental stress model for evaluation of vessel traffic in ports and waterways

Environmental stress model is proposed as an effective tool to the analysis and evaluation of navigational safety in ports and waterways. Marine traffic simulations are carried out in a virtual port area with various arrangements and conditions. Calculations of stress values and traffic volume criteria are illustrated. The simulation results provide a valuable hint for safety management of vessel traffic. The model provides quantitative information and helps administrators in decision making to achieve desired safety level and improve the efficiency of vessel traffic in ports and waterways.

Optimality Conditions for Static Programming with Generalized Convexity

The definitions of generalized pseudoconvex,generalized quasiconvex and its stri ctly generalized convexity were presented for the static programming at locally star -shaped set using the concept of right-upper derivative and the concept of sub linear. The sufficient and necessary conditions of the static programming were d erived in terms of a generalized Lemma in this paper. The results obtained are u seful for the further study on the duality of static programming and cover many already known conditions.

Research of Pure Electric Ferry System and Its Short-Circuit Protection and Calculation

System control and safety reliability are important links of the marine DC (Direct Current) power system. The simulationmodel is built by Matlab/Simulink, the battery and super-capacitor are supplied to the system through a three-phase interleaved DC/DCconverter, the fuse and disconnector switch combination are used as the protection device, and the short-circuit point is set betweeneach branch and the DC distribution board, performing short-circuit simulation. This paper also proposes a short-circuit calculationmethod for super-capacitors based on the simplified model of series RC (Resistors & Capacitors), and verifies its correctness throughsimulation data. The results show that the introduction of a three-phase interleaved DC/DC converter reduces the current ripple andmakes the system control more convenient;short-circuit calculation and simulation have determined the short-circuit withstandcapability of the DC distribution board, and verified the feasibility of the fuse selection method and the short-circuit calculation methodof the super-capacitor. This provides reliable verification for the application and calculation of the actual project.

HEAT AND MASS TRANSFER CHARACTERISTICS IN UNDERGROUND COOLING POOL AND EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION

To deal with the problems perplexed by energy consumption, noise and earth sink in refrigeration and air conditioning, a new technology-refrigeration by using geothermic energy was presented. The heat and mass transfer characteristics of an underground cooling pool were analyzed and the numerical model was given. The experimental results show that the refrigeration by using geothermic energy can apply well in all kinds of environmental conditions.