人民币汇率升值对中国粮食安全影响的一般均衡金融模型分析

通过构建一般均衡金融模型,分析了汇率变化对中国粮食安全的影响。模拟结果显示,现有中国经济增长条件下,人民币升值5%、10%、20%,对中国经济增长产生了较为持久的负面影响。与工业部门一样,人民币升值对农业部门也产生了产出、就业、投资及产出价格下降的严重影响,这种影响关系到农产品生产和供给,与中国的粮食安全息息相关,自2005年以来,人民币实际升值22%,过去的几年中,除粮食生产外,中国农产品生产遭受诸多价格风险,理论上,隐藏在农产品价格风险背后的因素,人民币升值有一定的作用。所以,人民币升值进程中,必须密切关注中国的农产品生产特别是粮食生产的安全。

发达国家防控重大动物疫病的财政支持政策

重大动物疫病具有致病性强、治愈性难、流行性大、易感性烈、人畜共患性强等特点,如控制不及时极易给畜牧业生产及消费者健康带来严重损害。本文详细地介绍了发达国家为减缓重大动物疫病对本国畜牧业的冲击而采取的财政补偿政策、补偿模式及相应的财政援助政策,并提出了对中国重大动物疫病防控的启示。

Increasing China's Agricultural Labor Productivity: Comparison and Policy Implications from Major Agrarian Countries

China's low agricultural labor productivity has become the key weakness of its agricultural competitive- ness and sustainable development,and strategies for improving China's agricultural labor productivity lack clear and consistent theory and empirical support.To address this issue,the current study uses the methods of convergence index,correlation coefficient,and nonparametric test,to analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural labor productivity among 32 major agrarian countries during 1961-2013.This analysis shows that the development gap among countries has been narrowing.The USA takes the leading position among all the countries, while some countries with scarce land like Japan have succeeded in achieving transcendence,and other countries like India have experienced relatively slow speed.The agricultural labor productivity is significantly driven by agricultural labor surplus,agricultural product processing,and agricultural industrial structure.The effects of land resource endowment,agricultural mechanization,and biochemical inputs have been declining and in some cases are no longer even significant.It is therefore necessary to shift attention to marketization,diversification,and high quality,instead of the former focus on agricultural intensification,concentration and large-scale operations,and this shift is probably more closely aligned with current practices.There are more people and less land in China,and the agricultural labor force in China still accounts for nearly 30% of the total population.Considering these national conditions,it is very important to simultaneously improve the efficiency of agricultural production of small farmers and promote the successful urbanization of the agricultural labor force.In the medium and long term,it is imperative to improve the competitiveness of Chinese agriculture by adopting related policy arrangements such as induced agricultural technological innovation,production factor substitution,and multifunctional agriculture development.

Transportation Accessibility of Central Towns in Important Agricultural Heritage Systems Sites in Mountainous Areas and Its Impact on Local Economic Development: A Case Study of Honghe Hani Rice Terraced System, Yunnan

Transportation as a means to support industrial development can impact the economic development of important agricultural heritage sites. Because the central towns in mountainous areas have weak economic interactions with each other, an appropriate method is needed to evaluate their transportation accessibility. This paper takes the Honghe Hani Rice Terraced System(HHRTS) as a study area and develops a model to determine shortest time-distances from central towns in the study area to the nearest high-grade city as a way to evaluate transportation accessibility(TA). We then analyze the relationship between the accessibility of these towns and their economies. The study finds that the TA of the central towns in HHRTS is not good as a whole. More than 70% of the towns are more than 1 hour away from their nearest high-grade city. Of the four counties in the study area, Yuanyang County has the best traffic conditions, while Lvchun County has the worst traffic conditions. The central towns in the northern and middle regions have better TA than those in the west, southwest and east margin regions. The small-scale rural economy has little dependence on the transportation network, while secondary industries are obviously impacted by the transportation network. In the future, to support the integrated development of industries in HHRTS, traffic conditions in each town should be improved appropriately according to the industrial orientation of the town, but excessive investments to construct roads irrespective of eco-environmental impacts and economic benefits should be avoided. Especially in the case of ecologically vulnerable towns, the building high-grade roads should be banned.

Protecting Important Agricultural Heritage Systems(IAHS)by Industrial Integration Development(IID):Practices from China

With Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems(GIAHS)increasing in number around the world,their conservation has become a new international research theme.From the perspective of combining theoretical analyses and practical case applications,this study examines the Important Agricultural Heritage Systems(IAHS)conservation pathways and operation mechanisms through industrial integration development(IID).First,the theoretical framework of IID in IAHS sites was constructed according to the requirements of IAHS conservation,which include analyses of the connotation and basic principles of IID,the necessity of IID for IAHS sites,the resource conditions,and the IID pathways.And then based on the theoretical framework,the IID of Longji Terraces in Guangxi,Honghe Hani Rice Terraces System in Yunnan(HHRTS),Aohan Dryland Farming System in Inner Mongolia(ADFS),and Huzhou Mulberry-dyke&Fish-pond System(HMFS)in Zhejiang are analyzed systematically.The main finding is that IID is an effective pathway for IAHS conservation.However,the IID in IAHS sites must stress the ecological and cultural values of the resources;IID should be based on local resource advantages;and IID should attach importance to the combination of different policies and coordination between different stakeholders.

Analysis of the Decisions of Farmers Working Different Sized Farms to Constantly Use Soil Testing Formula Fertilizer

This paper researches the behavior of using soil testing formula fertilizer at farms of different sizes.The study develops a probit model based on peasant household survey data from 11 grain production areas.The results prove that：First,obvious differences exist in the distribution of formula fertilizer use ratio among farms of different sizes;large-scale farmers are the highest,small-scale farmers are the lowest.Second,from external factors,the increased yield of corn,soil testing services,and information dissemination,it is clear that training has a significant positive effect on farmers’use behavior;the influence of soil testing services is the greatest.Third the higher the degree of organization,marketization and scale of a farm,the more likely the farmer is to use soil testing formula fertilizer.Policy recommendations are made on the basis of the empirical research presented in this paper.