Seven-Decade Structural Transformation of China’s Industrial Economy

Over the past seven decades since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949,China's industrial structure has experienced transformations in various stages,which is consistent with the general pattern of industrialization and China's domestic and international situations.These changes also have to do with China's reforms in building the socialist market economic system.China's seven-decade industrial structural transformation offers valuable experiences:In promoting its industrial development,China has persistently carried out economic reforms,kept pace with changing factor and demand structures,invested in technology importation and innovation,leveraged global resources and markets,and formulated development policies in line with specific industrial development stages.Despite industrial structural problems,China has set the stage for innovation-driven development,further opening up,and balanced regional development.China's industrial structure will keep evolving amid its transition toward a competitive industrial nation.

A Review and Outlook of the Centennial of China’s Industrialization:The CPC’s Industrialization Strategy

Industrialization has been a dream for the Chinese nation since modern history and a goal of the Communist Party of China(CPC).Ever since its founding in 1921,the CPC has been exploring a path for China’s industrial development based on socialism as the political and institutional premise.Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949,the Chinese people have established a socialist system under the CPC’s leadership and carried out industrial development for over seven decades in the world’s most populous country,blazing a new trail of socialist industrialization with Chinese characteristics.Under the CPC’s leadership,China established an independent and complete industrial system in less than three decades from 1949 to 1978,and developed into the world’s largest industrial power with the most complete industrial sectors in over three decades from 1979 to 2016.In its future industrial development,China aims to complete new-type industrialization by 2035,build a modern economic system,reach the level of moderately developed countries in terms of GDP per capita,and develop into a major world industrial power by the centennial of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 2049.

China’s Regional Economic Development since 1949:Review and Outlook

Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949,China’s regional development strategy has experienced three stages-the balanced development strategy before reform and opening up in 1978,imbalanced development strategy since 1978,and the present coordinated development stage.Each stage has its own priorities and characteristics of historical context and offers valuable experience for China’s regional economic development.Reviewing the journey and historic characteristics of China’s regional economic development is of great theoretical and relevant significance to its balanced regional economic development in the new era.Experience shows that in the strategic choice of regional development,importance should be given to the proper handling of relationships between efficiency and fairness,government and market,equilibrium and disequilibrium,and central and local governments.In general,China’s regional economic development has achieved tremendous progress since 1949,particularly since 1978 as manifested in favorable regional development momentum and balanced regional development.Nevertheless,imbalanced and inadequate regional development remain prominent contradictions.In the new era,we must follow Xi Jinping thought on socialism with Chinese characteristics as guidance,implement the strategy of balanced regional development,and bring about a new development pattern characterized by equal access to basic public services,relatively balanced infrastructure accessibility and generally equal living standards.

Seven Decades of China's Energy Industry Development:Retrospect and Outlook

China’s coal,petroleum,natural gas and electric power industries are in different stages.Coal has a falling share in China’s energy mix,and clean coal is on the rise.While China’s petroleum production stagnates,the natural gas and electric power industries are developing rapidly.Amid the changing energy industries,China’s energy regulatory system has evolved from vertical to integrated management,and energy administrative and supervisory functions have become integrated over time.These changes have played different roles during specific periods,either enhancing or hampering a highefficient development of China’s energy industry.Over the past seven decades,China’s energy industry has acquired important capabilities to support the nation’s social and economic development.With industrial prowess in clean energy and energy efficiency,China has become a leader in global low-carbon and clean energy transition.In the future,China'should attach great importance to the adverse short-term effects of energy transition on its energy security.By deepening energy institutional reform,China'should enhance its energy security through energy transition.

Pathways for Elevating China’s Opening-up under the New Development Paradigm

Due to the superimposed impacts of new industrial revolution,the changing trade policy and the COVID-19 pandemic,the world has seen setbacks in globalization,contractions in the global value chain(GVC),and the risk of a fragmented global system.The once-in-a-century changes in our world today highlight the need for China to explore a new development paradigm based on new concepts.In the new era,China must not only come to terms with a backlash against globalization and challenges from the reshaping of international rules,but also breathe life into the“dual circulations,”i.e.domestic and international economic circulations.China must open up wider to the outside world to keep abreast with changes in today’s global governance system.In the complex and volatile international environment,we should explore new areas of development spearheaded by institutional opening up,create new gateways and platforms for opening up and cooperation for mutual benefit,contribute to new global governance and security systems,and promote synergy between domestic and international circulations.In building a great modern socialist country,China must open up wider and be more inclusive to the outside world.

Coordinating Regional Development as a Solid Foundation for Common Prosperity

Coordinating regional development is a key step for China to achieve the goal of common prosperity for all. From the era of the planned economy to the development,consolidation and improvement of the socialist market economic system after reform and opening up since 1978, as a key target of economic development, China has been committed to balancing regional development, and after decades-long explorations and relentless efforts made great progress. Coordinated regional development-as manifested in narrowed regional development gaps, more equal access to basic public services and eradication of regional absolute poverty-has paved the way for more substantive progress to be made in delivering common prosperity for all. Despite the progress, China still needs to further improve institutional systems for regional coordination and undergird the regional foundation for common prosperity according to the requirements of its new development stage. Specifically, China should focus on the following priorities:(i) Strengthen institutional infrastructure, smooth regional internal and external circulations, and develop a unified domestic market at a higher level;(ii) give full play to the role of the government in equalizing access to basic public services, promoting infrastructure connectivity and protecting basic living standards;(iii) optimize integrated urban-rural development mechanisms, take solid steps to revitalize the countryside, and further coordinate urban and rural development;(iv) improve the layout of the industrial chain and advance interregional industrial chain upgrade and social progress.

Digital Economy and High-Quality Industrial Development

In the 14th Five-Year Plan period(2021-2025),China has vowed to pursue high-quality industrial development.The digital economy drives high-quality industrial development by creating means of production,reducing transaction costs,transforming industrial organization,and improving the efficiency of resource allocation.The digital factor has become a key factor of production for high-quality development.Digital and user-created innovations are the new normal for cross-sectoral integration and innovation.Great progress has been made in China'high-quality industrial development driven by the digital economy.The rapid development of digital industries and industrial digitalization have reshaped the industrial division of labor and helped the ascension of related industries towards the medium-and high-end links of the global value chains.However,China still faces numerous challenges in the development of its digital economy;it lacks indigenous industrial innovation,depends on foreign supply of core technologies,and is ill-prepared for industrial digitalization.Much work remains to be done to further coordinate the development of some industries and foster digital ecosystems for the symbiosis of industrial chains.In furthering the high-quality industrial development driven by the digital economy,China should stay at the forefront of digital innovation,promote digital governance,enhance data factor agglomeration,and foster digital talents.

Patterns and Experience of China's Four Decades of Opening-Up

China＇s four decades of opening-up coincided with the trend of the world economy, and contributed to its own economic development. With a gradualist approach, China achieved opening-up without causing economic and social repercussions, and unleashed institutional dividends that facilitated its reform and development. This approach has breathed lasting momentum and vitality into China＇s economic growth and structural transition, and improved China＇s industrial competitiveness and status in the international division of labor. As a basic national strategy and one of the country＇s five development concepts, opening-up is essential for China to pursue peaceful development and stand proudly in the family of nations. Facing new changes in domestic and international environments in the new era, particularly increasing competition among major countries such as China and the United States, China should proactively explore a new model of opening-up, refocus opening-up from policy supply to capacity building, and form a new pattern of opening-up on all fronts for high-quality economic development.

BUILDING A MODERATELY PROSPEROUS SOCIETY IN ALL RESPECTS——New-Type Industrialization

After announcing the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020, the Chinese leadership also called for a new path of industrialization, putting a premium on quality and new development concepts. Unlike traditional industrialization in the broad or narrow sense, new-type industrialization features synergy between primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, integration between traditional economy and the new economy, environmental protection, technology progress, and innovation. It represents an inclusive approach to industrial development. At the fundamental level, the success of China’s new-type industrialization can be attributed to China’s inclusive learning and innovations.

Supply-Side Solutions to China's Energy Transition

Compared with the first two energy transitions in human history, the current third energy transition is characterized by the changing concepts of development. Considering its energy mix dominated by fossil fuels, China is faced with a daunting task of transition. This paper discusses the following policy recommendations on China＇s energy transition, including building a renewables-friendly electric power system, developing smart grids and electric vehicles, promoting cross-regional electric power transactions, encouraging financial innovation, and creating new energy industry investment funds to broaden financing channels and diversify investment entities.

China’s Manufacturing Outlook towards 2035

Over the past seven decades since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949,China has emerged as the factory floor of the world.Manufacturing prowess has undergirded China’s industrial growth,competitiveness,and leading-nation status.The Fifth Plenum of the 19th CPC Central Committee vowed to“basically complete newtype industrialization,ICT revolution,urbanization,and agricultural modernization and build a modern economic system by 2035.”To achieve this goal,China must steadfastly advance supply-side structural reforms,strengthen the real economy,develop advanced manufacturing,and upgrade traditional industries.China must create a stable and competitive supply chain and enhance the dynamism of market entities.At the heart of these priorities lies innovation.In conclusion,this paper puts forth policy recommendations on China’s manufacturing strength and competitiveness towards 2035.Specifically,China should leverage its market heft and“whole-nation”strength to push forward industrial transition,deepen market-based factor allocation reforms,encourage entrepreneurship,and embrace international cooperation and competition.

Digital Consumption and Manufacturing Industry's Digital Transition

As a form of consumption based on the digital content and traits of goods and services,digital consumption is characterized by a strong dependence on the digital technology infrastructure,precise identification of consumer demand,adaptability to new business modes,swift consumer feedback and response,and great market potentials.Under the dual driving forces of technology empowerment and consumption upgrade,China s digital consumption has been growing rapidly,digitalization is empowering traditional sectors of consumption,and the consumption of digital content is expanding.Consumer potential for digital consumption is being unleashed in low-tier cities,and new-generation consumers are gaining influence.With an increasing number of digital consumers,new consumption modes and services have proliferated thanks to the improving digital infrastructure.Growing digital consumption has created an increasing demand-pulling effect that spurs product and service innovation,corporate internal process digitalization,and changes in corporate organization and decision-making.Driven by digital consumption,industrial chain upgrade and restructuring and business mode innovations will improve user experience and firm efficiency,contributing to the quality,efficiency,and dynamism of the manufacturing industry.Amid surging digital consumption,the digital transition of manufacturing is still faced with some problems and challenges.It is important to deepen the user-centric concepts and modes of value creation,create a differentiated service system,optimize digital resource allocation,enhance digital brand management,and scale up R&D and innovation of products and services.

Economists’Judgement on China’s Socio-Economic Development in the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

2020 is the final year of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan period and an intersection between the“two centennial goals.”It is also a vital year for drafting the 14th Five-year Plan and embarking on a new journey of socialist modernization.What socio-economic progress has China achieved during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and what are the opportunities,challenges and countermeasures for the 14th Five-Year Plan period?In May 2020,the China Economist conducted a questionnaire survey among economists.Results suggest that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,China has achieved remarkable progress in the following areas:significant socio-economic development,deepening industry-ICT integration,and rapid growth of new economy;mass entrepreneurship and mass innovation,and enhanced R&D capabilities for cutting-edge technologies;green production and the abatement of air and water pollution;and poverty reduction.In the 14th Five-Year Plan period,opportunities co-exist with challenges for China’s socio-economic development,which brims with resiliency.Surveyed economists felt sanguine about China’s development outlook.Based on the results,surveyed economists believed that the Chinese government should focus on the following priorities during the 14th Five-Year Plan period:expediting industrial transition,strengthening the real economy,and exploring domestic consumption potentials;ramping up research in fundamental science,and accelerating the research of critical technologies;increasing equal access to basic public services;and promoting green development in all respects,including green consumption,production,distribution,innovation,and finance.

Chinese Corporate Organizations Since 1978: A Journey of Explorations

The market economic system is an economic system of corporate organizations. China＇s sustained and rapid economic development over the past four decades of reform and opening-up was supported by the emergence of its business community. During this period, China＇s corporate organizations increased, expanded and developed from strength to strength, serving as a solid micro-level basis for the prosperity of the socialist market economic system. Having achieved significant progress, China＇s corporate ownership restructuring led to the common development of enterprises with various forms of ownership. An institutional factor that undergirded corporate prosperity was China＇s choice of a corporate system characterized by the interplay between market competition and government administration. How China＇s corporate organizational system will evolve in the future is determined by（1） how efficiency varies among firms with different ownership systems, and（2） external institutional pressures facing firms in their rapid internationalization process.

寻租总是经济发展的阻碍吗?——给李斯特和熊彼特一个机会

新古典寻租理论从资源配置的角度出发,认为寻租耗费社会资源继而阻碍经济发展。本文以熊彼特的创新理论为视角,即创新要求企业家有能力获得执行创新所需资本,试图对寻租与后发达国家经济发展之间的关系进行新的解释。在自由贸易体系中,落后国家的企业因为生产技术上的劣势,而无力获得足够的资本用于创新。但落后国家的精英企业家通过寻租活动与政府建立'契约',争取政府的保护性政策和资助,从而积累创新所需的资本,实现技术升级和经济发展。因此,这样的寻租是以谋求生产型的资源为目的的,虽然短期内造成福利损失,但是长期内是促进经济发展的。