The accurate simulation and prediction of grassland aboveground biomass (AGB) and theoretical livestock carrying capacity are key steps for maintaining ecosystem balance and sustainable grassland management.The AGB in...The accurate simulation and prediction of grassland aboveground biomass (AGB) and theoretical livestock carrying capacity are key steps for maintaining ecosystem balance and sustainable grassland management.The AGB in fenced grassland is not affected by grazing and its variability is only driven by climate change,which can be regarded as the grassland potential AGB (AGB_(p)).In this study,we compiled the data for 345 AGB field observations in fenced grasslands and their corresponding climate data,soil data,and topographical data on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (TP).We further simulated and predicted grassland AGB_(p)and theoretical livestock carrying capacity under the climate conditions of the past (2000-2018) and future two decades (2021-2040) based on a random forest (RF) algorithm.The results showed that simulated AGB_(p)matched well with observed values in the field (R^(2)=0.76,P<0.001) in the past two decades.The average grassland AGB_(p)on the Tibetan Plateau was 102.4g m^(-2),and the inter-annual changes in AGB_(p)during this period showed a non-significant increasing trend.AGB_(p)fluctuation was positively correlated with growing season precipitation (R^(2)=0.57,P<0.001),and negatively correlated with the growing season diurnal temperature range (R^(2)=0.51,P<0.001).The average theoretical livestock carrying capacity was 0.94 standardized sheep units (SSU) ha^(-1)on the TP,in which about 54.1%of the areas showed an increasing trend during the past two decades.Compared with the past two decades,the theoretical livestock carrying capacity showed a decreasing trend in the future,which was mainly distributed in the central and northern TP.This study suggested that targeted planning and management should be carried out to alleviate the forage-livestock contradiction in grazing systems on the Tibetan Plateau.展开更多
Livestock grazing is one of primary way to use grasslands throughout the world, and the forage-livestock balance of grasslands is a core issue determining animal husbandry sustainability. However, there are few method...Livestock grazing is one of primary way to use grasslands throughout the world, and the forage-livestock balance of grasslands is a core issue determining animal husbandry sustainability. However, there are few methods for assessing the forage-livestock balance and none of those consider the dynamics of external abiotic factors that influence forage yields. In this study, we combine long-term field observations with remote sensing data and meteorological records of temperature and precipitation to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on the forage-livestock balance of alpine grasslands on the northern Tibetan Plateau for the years 2000 to 2016. We developed two methods: one is statical method based on equilibrium theory and the other is dynamic method based on non-equilibrium theory. We also examined the uncertainties and shortcomings of using these two methods as a basis for formulating policies for sustainable grassland management. Our results from the statical method showed severe overgrazing in the grasslands of all counties observed except Nyima(including Shuanghu) for the entire period from 2000 to 2016. In contrast, the results from the dynamic method showed overgrazing in only eight years of the study period 2000–2016, while in the other nine years alpine grasslands throughout the northern Tibetan Plateau were less grazed and had forage surpluses. Additionally, the dynamic method found that the alpine grasslands of counties in the northeastern and southwestern areas of the northern Tibetan Plateau were overgrazed, and that alpine grasslands in the central area of the plateau were less grazed with forage surpluses. The latter finding is consistent with field surveys. Therefore, we suggest that the dynamic method is more appropriate for assessment of forage-livestock management efforts in alpine grasslands on the northern Tibetan Plateau. However, the statical method is still recommended for assessments of alpine grasslands profoundly disturbed by irrational human activities.展开更多
Quantifying the relationship between the drought severity index and climate factors is crucial for predicting drought risk in situations characterized by climate change. However, variations in drought risk are not rea...Quantifying the relationship between the drought severity index and climate factors is crucial for predicting drought risk in situations characterized by climate change. However, variations in drought risk are not readily discernible under conditions of climate change, and this is particularly the case on the Tibetan Plateau. This study examines the correlations between the annual drought severity index(DSI) and 14 climate factors(including temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and hours of sunshine factors), on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2011. Spatial average DSI increased with precipitation and minimum relative humidity, while it decreased as the hours of sunshine increased. The correlation between DSI and climate factors varied with vegetation types. In alpine meadows, the correlation of the spatial DSI average with the percentage of sunshine and hours of sunshine(P<0.001) was higher compared to that in alpine steppes(P<0.05). Similarly, average vapor pressure and minimum relative humidity had significant positive effects on spatial DSI in alpine meadows, but had insignificant effects in alpine steppes. The magnitude of DSI change correlated negatively with temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure, and positively with wind speed and sunshine. This demonstrates that the correlation between drought and climate change on the Tibetan Plateau is dependent on the type of ecosystem.展开更多
Forests are the main components of terrestrial ecosystems and play an important role in the protection and construction of the national ecological security barrier. For a long time, China’s large-scale afforestation ...Forests are the main components of terrestrial ecosystems and play an important role in the protection and construction of the national ecological security barrier. For a long time, China’s large-scale afforestation had been practiced in areas with rainfall higher than the 400 mm threshold, but the issue of afforestation in high altitudes on the Tibetan Plateau remains elusive in both practical experience and theoretical exploration. It is worth thinking further about what principles should be followed in the selection of tree species and suitable altitudes for afforestation in high-altitude areas, as well as what experiences and lessons of previous afforestation efforts should be applied in high-altitude areas. As per the law of vegetation zonal distribution, this paper argues that afforestation at high altitudes should comply with the principle of vegetation zonal distribution and the low temperature limitation,and points out that afforestation is feasible only within the forest distribution area and below the altitudes of climate timberlines. Furthermore, we demonstrate the potential spatial areas of afforestation, and determine the local tree species that may be used for afforestation based on the existing problems of afforestation in eastern Tibet. In summary, afforestation in high-altitude areas of the eastern Tibetan Plateau must comply with the law of zonal vegetation distribution, focus on the upper limit of altitude and the selection of suitable tree species, and adopt only suitable native tree species.展开更多
基金The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)(2019QZKK1002)The National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (41807331)The West Light Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2018)。
文摘The accurate simulation and prediction of grassland aboveground biomass (AGB) and theoretical livestock carrying capacity are key steps for maintaining ecosystem balance and sustainable grassland management.The AGB in fenced grassland is not affected by grazing and its variability is only driven by climate change,which can be regarded as the grassland potential AGB (AGB_(p)).In this study,we compiled the data for 345 AGB field observations in fenced grasslands and their corresponding climate data,soil data,and topographical data on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (TP).We further simulated and predicted grassland AGB_(p)and theoretical livestock carrying capacity under the climate conditions of the past (2000-2018) and future two decades (2021-2040) based on a random forest (RF) algorithm.The results showed that simulated AGB_(p)matched well with observed values in the field (R^(2)=0.76,P<0.001) in the past two decades.The average grassland AGB_(p)on the Tibetan Plateau was 102.4g m^(-2),and the inter-annual changes in AGB_(p)during this period showed a non-significant increasing trend.AGB_(p)fluctuation was positively correlated with growing season precipitation (R^(2)=0.57,P<0.001),and negatively correlated with the growing season diurnal temperature range (R^(2)=0.51,P<0.001).The average theoretical livestock carrying capacity was 0.94 standardized sheep units (SSU) ha^(-1)on the TP,in which about 54.1%of the areas showed an increasing trend during the past two decades.Compared with the past two decades,the theoretical livestock carrying capacity showed a decreasing trend in the future,which was mainly distributed in the central and northern TP.This study suggested that targeted planning and management should be carried out to alleviate the forage-livestock contradiction in grazing systems on the Tibetan Plateau.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFC0502001)The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20010201,DA19050502)。
文摘Livestock grazing is one of primary way to use grasslands throughout the world, and the forage-livestock balance of grasslands is a core issue determining animal husbandry sustainability. However, there are few methods for assessing the forage-livestock balance and none of those consider the dynamics of external abiotic factors that influence forage yields. In this study, we combine long-term field observations with remote sensing data and meteorological records of temperature and precipitation to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on the forage-livestock balance of alpine grasslands on the northern Tibetan Plateau for the years 2000 to 2016. We developed two methods: one is statical method based on equilibrium theory and the other is dynamic method based on non-equilibrium theory. We also examined the uncertainties and shortcomings of using these two methods as a basis for formulating policies for sustainable grassland management. Our results from the statical method showed severe overgrazing in the grasslands of all counties observed except Nyima(including Shuanghu) for the entire period from 2000 to 2016. In contrast, the results from the dynamic method showed overgrazing in only eight years of the study period 2000–2016, while in the other nine years alpine grasslands throughout the northern Tibetan Plateau were less grazed and had forage surpluses. Additionally, the dynamic method found that the alpine grasslands of counties in the northeastern and southwestern areas of the northern Tibetan Plateau were overgrazed, and that alpine grasslands in the central area of the plateau were less grazed with forage surpluses. The latter finding is consistent with field surveys. Therefore, we suggest that the dynamic method is more appropriate for assessment of forage-livestock management efforts in alpine grasslands on the northern Tibetan Plateau. However, the statical method is still recommended for assessments of alpine grasslands profoundly disturbed by irrational human activities.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program(2016YFC0502001)The National Natural Science Foundation of China(41761008)。
文摘Quantifying the relationship between the drought severity index and climate factors is crucial for predicting drought risk in situations characterized by climate change. However, variations in drought risk are not readily discernible under conditions of climate change, and this is particularly the case on the Tibetan Plateau. This study examines the correlations between the annual drought severity index(DSI) and 14 climate factors(including temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and hours of sunshine factors), on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2011. Spatial average DSI increased with precipitation and minimum relative humidity, while it decreased as the hours of sunshine increased. The correlation between DSI and climate factors varied with vegetation types. In alpine meadows, the correlation of the spatial DSI average with the percentage of sunshine and hours of sunshine(P<0.001) was higher compared to that in alpine steppes(P<0.05). Similarly, average vapor pressure and minimum relative humidity had significant positive effects on spatial DSI in alpine meadows, but had insignificant effects in alpine steppes. The magnitude of DSI change correlated negatively with temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure, and positively with wind speed and sunshine. This demonstrates that the correlation between drought and climate change on the Tibetan Plateau is dependent on the type of ecosystem.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China and ICIMOD Joint Research Project (41661144045)。
文摘Forests are the main components of terrestrial ecosystems and play an important role in the protection and construction of the national ecological security barrier. For a long time, China’s large-scale afforestation had been practiced in areas with rainfall higher than the 400 mm threshold, but the issue of afforestation in high altitudes on the Tibetan Plateau remains elusive in both practical experience and theoretical exploration. It is worth thinking further about what principles should be followed in the selection of tree species and suitable altitudes for afforestation in high-altitude areas, as well as what experiences and lessons of previous afforestation efforts should be applied in high-altitude areas. As per the law of vegetation zonal distribution, this paper argues that afforestation at high altitudes should comply with the principle of vegetation zonal distribution and the low temperature limitation,and points out that afforestation is feasible only within the forest distribution area and below the altitudes of climate timberlines. Furthermore, we demonstrate the potential spatial areas of afforestation, and determine the local tree species that may be used for afforestation based on the existing problems of afforestation in eastern Tibet. In summary, afforestation in high-altitude areas of the eastern Tibetan Plateau must comply with the law of zonal vegetation distribution, focus on the upper limit of altitude and the selection of suitable tree species, and adopt only suitable native tree species.