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渭河流域秋雨统计降尺度预估的试验研究 被引量:3
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作者 薛春芳 董文杰 +1 位作者 毛明策 王式功 《热带气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2013年第5期849-856,共8页
在比较不同大尺度预报因子联合场、空间范围和数据预处理方法对统计降尺度模型预测能力影响的基础上,基于HadCM3和CCSM3两种分辨率大气环流模式(GCM)输出资料,采用主成分分析和多元线性回归相结合的降尺度方法,建立了渭河流域秋雨的统... 在比较不同大尺度预报因子联合场、空间范围和数据预处理方法对统计降尺度模型预测能力影响的基础上,基于HadCM3和CCSM3两种分辨率大气环流模式(GCM)输出资料,采用主成分分析和多元线性回归相结合的降尺度方法,建立了渭河流域秋雨的统计降尺度模型,并根据分析两种GCM基准期内降尺度预测效果,对未来不同情景进行预估。结果表明,对降水量的3次方根正态化处理并不能改善模型的预测性能,而去趋势处理可提高模型对于9月的预测能力。850 hPa经向风和相对湿度组合是渭河流域秋雨的最佳预测因子。低分辨率的HadCM3模式降尺度预测效果优于高分辨率的CCSM3模式,具体表现在前者对整个流域的预测能力较高,后者只对中下游流域附近的预测效果较好。以基准期内可预报性较好的站点对渭河流域秋雨进行预测,两种模式的不同情景预估结果均表明,渭河流域2000—2099年9月降水量呈增加趋势,10月降水量呈下降趋势,降尺度模型成功预测了21世纪前10年的秋雨增加趋势。 展开更多
关键词 气候学 统计降尺度 降水量预估 渭河流域
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Declining Precipitation Enhances the Effect of Warming on Phenological Variation in a Semiarid Tibetan Meadow Steppe 被引量:13
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作者 ZHAO Guangshuai SHI Peili +4 位作者 ZONG Ning HE Yongtao ZHANG Xianzhou HE Honglin ZHANG Jing 《Journal of Resources and Ecology》 CSCD 2017年第1期50-56,共7页
Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of global warming,especially on the Tibetan Plateau.However,whether climate warming has enhanced the advance of grassland phenology since 2000 remains debated and little i... Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of global warming,especially on the Tibetan Plateau.However,whether climate warming has enhanced the advance of grassland phenology since 2000 remains debated and little is known about the warming effect on semiarid grassland phenology and interactions with early growing season precipitation.In this study,we extracted phenological changes from average NDVI in the growing season(GNDVI) to analyze the relationship between changes in NDVI,phenology and climate in the Northern Tibetan Damxung grassland from 2000 to 2014.The GNDVI of the grassland declined.Interannual variation of GNDVI was mainly affected by mean temperature from late May to July and precipitation from April to August.The length of the growing season was significantly shortened due to a delay in the beginning of the growing season and no advancement of the end of the growing season,largely caused by climate warming and enhanced by decreasing precipitation in spring.Water availability was the major determinant of grass growth in the study area.Warming increased demand for water when the growth limitation of temperature to grass was exceeded in the growing season.Decreased precipitation likely further exacerbated the effect of warming on vegetation phenology in recent decades due to increasing evapotranspiration and water limitations.The comprehensive effects of global warming and decreasing precipitation may delay the phenological responses of semiarid alpine grasslands. 展开更多
关键词 NDVI PHENOLOGY climate change Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Damxung station
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Impact of Water Vapor on Elevation-dependent Climate Change
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作者 ZHANG Xianzhou WANG Ling +5 位作者 HE Yongtao DU Mingyuan ZHANG Jing SHI Peili YU Chengqun ZHANG Yangjian 《Journal of Resources and Ecology》 CSCD 2017年第1期5-9,共5页
Elevation dependency amongst climate change signals has been found in major mountain ranges around the world,but the main factors causing this dependency have not been clarified.In this study,four different datasets o... Elevation dependency amongst climate change signals has been found in major mountain ranges around the world,but the main factors causing this dependency have not been clarified.In this study,four different datasets of observation and reanalysis for China were used to examine the elevation dependency of climate change.A lack of consistency was found in dependency between warming magnitude and elevation across the Tibetan Plateau and China.However,a dependency of climate change on water vapor was detected whereby the temperature trend initially increased at low specific humidity,and then decreased as specific humidity increased.At ground level the maximum trend in temperature appeared in the specific humidity range 2.0–3.0 g kg^(-1).This suggests that water vapor is a mediator of climate change and may be responsible for elevation-dependent climate change. 展开更多
关键词 Climate change elevation dependency Tibetan Plateau water vapor
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