采用线性趋势方程、滑动平均和R/S（rescaled range analysis）分析方法对1953～2006年梅州市气温、降水的各季及年平均值进行了分析。结果表明,50年来梅州市各季和年平均气温呈上升趋势,冬季气温增暖速率最大;年降水量及春、夏、冬季...采用线性趋势方程、滑动平均和R/S（rescaled range analysis）分析方法对1953～2006年梅州市气温、降水的各季及年平均值进行了分析。结果表明,50年来梅州市各季和年平均气温呈上升趋势,冬季气温增暖速率最大;年降水量及春、夏、冬季降水量也处于增多时段,而夏季降水的变化倾向率最大。R/S分析表明：气温、降水两气候要素存在明显的赫斯特（Hurst）现象,即梅州市气候变化存在着持续性;气温的Hurst指数表明,梅州市未来的年平均气温和各季平均气温都会继续呈上升趋势,未来夏季平均气温的增暖趋势将更为明显;降水量的Hurst指数表明,梅州市未来的年降水量及春、夏、冬季降水趋势是增多的,而秋季降水维持减少趋势,未来春季雨水增多的趋势将更为明显。展开更多
By using Doppler weather radar data,the meso-scale characteristics of extremely heavy rainstorm process which happened suddenly in Jieyang urban area on July 31,2008 were analyzed.The results showed that the radar ech...By using Doppler weather radar data,the meso-scale characteristics of extremely heavy rainstorm process which happened suddenly in Jieyang urban area on July 31,2008 were analyzed.The results showed that the radar echo only needed 20 minutes from the generation to the strong echo which quickly strengthened above 50 dBz.The storm center went down south and went up north near Jieyang City all the time.The component which moved eastward was very tiny,and the heavy precipitation echo stagnated.In this heavy precipitation process,the characteristics types of radial velocity which were favorable to the generation and development of heavy precipitation echo appeared alternately each other.The radial velocity's characteristics types were the first type headwind zone,the second type headwind zone,meso-scale convergence type and cyclonic convergence and so on.Thus,this heavy precipitation process which broke the record happened.The analyses showed that the headwind zone which developed vigorously and the convergence which had influx and outflux airflow in the vertical direction of headwind zone made obvious contributions to the precipitation.展开更多
文摘采用线性趋势方程、滑动平均和R/S（rescaled range analysis）分析方法对1953～2006年梅州市气温、降水的各季及年平均值进行了分析。结果表明,50年来梅州市各季和年平均气温呈上升趋势,冬季气温增暖速率最大;年降水量及春、夏、冬季降水量也处于增多时段,而夏季降水的变化倾向率最大。R/S分析表明：气温、降水两气候要素存在明显的赫斯特（Hurst）现象,即梅州市气候变化存在着持续性;气温的Hurst指数表明,梅州市未来的年平均气温和各季平均气温都会继续呈上升趋势,未来夏季平均气温的增暖趋势将更为明显;降水量的Hurst指数表明,梅州市未来的年降水量及春、夏、冬季降水趋势是增多的,而秋季降水维持减少趋势,未来春季雨水增多的趋势将更为明显。
基金Supported by The State Natural Science Fund Project(40875025, 40875030,40775033)Shanghai Natural Science Fund Project (08ZR1422900)
文摘By using Doppler weather radar data,the meso-scale characteristics of extremely heavy rainstorm process which happened suddenly in Jieyang urban area on July 31,2008 were analyzed.The results showed that the radar echo only needed 20 minutes from the generation to the strong echo which quickly strengthened above 50 dBz.The storm center went down south and went up north near Jieyang City all the time.The component which moved eastward was very tiny,and the heavy precipitation echo stagnated.In this heavy precipitation process,the characteristics types of radial velocity which were favorable to the generation and development of heavy precipitation echo appeared alternately each other.The radial velocity's characteristics types were the first type headwind zone,the second type headwind zone,meso-scale convergence type and cyclonic convergence and so on.Thus,this heavy precipitation process which broke the record happened.The analyses showed that the headwind zone which developed vigorously and the convergence which had influx and outflux airflow in the vertical direction of headwind zone made obvious contributions to the precipitation.
