Objective： Support Vector Machine （SVM） is a machine-learning method, based on the principle of structural risk minimization, which performs well when applied to data outside the training set. In this paper, SVM wa...Objective： Support Vector Machine （SVM） is a machine-learning method, based on the principle of structural risk minimization, which performs well when applied to data outside the training set. In this paper, SVM was applied to predict 5-year survival status of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma （NPC） after treatment, we expect to find a new way for prognosis studies in cancer so as to assist right clinical decision for individual patient. Methods： Two modelling methods were used in the study; SVM network and a standard parametric logistic regression were used to model 5-year survival status. And the two methods were compared on a prospective set of patients not used in model construction via receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve analysis. Results： The SVM1, trained with the 25 original input variables without screening, yielded a ROC area of 0.868, at sensitivity to mortality of 79.2% and the specificity of 94.5%. Similarly, the SVM2, trained with 9 input variables which were obtained by optimal input variable selection from the 25 original variables by logistic regression screening, yielded a ROC area of 0.874, at a sensitivity to mortality of 79.2% and the specificity of 95.6%, while the logistic regression yielded a ROC area of 0.751 at a sensitivity to mortality of 66.7% and gave a specificity of 83.5%. Conclusion： SVM found a strong pattern in the database predictive of 5-year survival status. The logistic regression produces somewhat similar, but better, results. These results show that the SVM models have the potential to predict individual patient＇s 5-year survival status after treatment, and to assist the clinicians for making a good clinical decision.展开更多
文摘Objective： Support Vector Machine （SVM） is a machine-learning method, based on the principle of structural risk minimization, which performs well when applied to data outside the training set. In this paper, SVM was applied to predict 5-year survival status of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma （NPC） after treatment, we expect to find a new way for prognosis studies in cancer so as to assist right clinical decision for individual patient. Methods： Two modelling methods were used in the study; SVM network and a standard parametric logistic regression were used to model 5-year survival status. And the two methods were compared on a prospective set of patients not used in model construction via receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve analysis. Results： The SVM1, trained with the 25 original input variables without screening, yielded a ROC area of 0.868, at sensitivity to mortality of 79.2% and the specificity of 94.5%. Similarly, the SVM2, trained with 9 input variables which were obtained by optimal input variable selection from the 25 original variables by logistic regression screening, yielded a ROC area of 0.874, at a sensitivity to mortality of 79.2% and the specificity of 95.6%, while the logistic regression yielded a ROC area of 0.751 at a sensitivity to mortality of 66.7% and gave a specificity of 83.5%. Conclusion： SVM found a strong pattern in the database predictive of 5-year survival status. The logistic regression produces somewhat similar, but better, results. These results show that the SVM models have the potential to predict individual patient＇s 5-year survival status after treatment, and to assist the clinicians for making a good clinical decision.
