新疆阿勒泰地区西部蝗虫发生面积与大气环流特征量指数模型研究

通过对1991~2008年阿勒泰地区西部三县蝗虫发生面积与大气环流指数74项特征值的相关分析,分别筛选出与各县蝗虫发生面积显著相关的大气环流因子,采用逐步回归方法分别建立各县蝗虫发生面积的预测模型,并对模型进行了检验。利用模型对2009~2010年各县蝗虫发生面积进行延伸预测,并初步分析了大气环流特征量与蝗虫发生面积的关系。研究结果为蝗灾的预测预报提供理论依据。

Study on the Model between the Occurrence Area of Grasshopper and the Characteristic Quantity Indexes of Atmospheric Circulation in Western Aletai

By analyzing the correlation between the occurrence area of grasshopper and 74 characteristic indexes of atmospheric circulation in western Aletai from 1991 to 2008,the atmospheric circulation factors which had the significant relationship with the occurrence area of grasshopper in different counties were screened.The prediction models for the occurrence area of grasshopper in different counties were established by stepwise regression method,and the models obtained were also tested.These models were subsequently utilized to carry out extended prediction on the occurrence area of grasshopper in different counties of western Aletai from 2009 to 2010.Meanwhile,the relationship between the atmospheric circulation factors and the occurrence area of grasshopper were analyzed.The results provided the theoretical basis for the prediction on grasshopper plague.

干旱的危害及其应对策略

在全球气候变暖的背景下，近百年来，中国年平均气温升高了0．5～0．8℃。近年来，变暖尤其明显，中国大部分地区呈增温趋势，以北方增暖最为明显。地球上有9成自然生态系统的变化与全球变暖有关，气候变暖使世界经济面临巨大严峻挑战。其中挑战之首是极端气候事件趋强趋多。干旱对全球变暖的响应表现更为突出和敏感，