新疆阿勒泰地区西部蝗虫发生面积与大气环流特征量指数模型研究

通过对1991~2008年阿勒泰地区西部三县蝗虫发生面积与大气环流指数74项特征值的相关分析,分别筛选出与各县蝗虫发生面积显著相关的大气环流因子,采用逐步回归方法分别建立各县蝗虫发生面积的预测模型,并对模型进行了检验。利用模型对2009~2010年各县蝗虫发生面积进行延伸预测,并初步分析了大气环流特征量与蝗虫发生面积的关系。研究结果为蝗灾的预测预报提供理论依据。

近45年5—9月阿勒泰地区强降水气候变化趋势与突变特征

利用1961—2005年5—9月阿勒泰地区六县一市7站逐日降水资料,对该地区强降水事件的气候变化趋势和突变特征进行分析。结果表明:近45年来,强降水量和强降水日数呈增加趋势,1981年是增加的突变点;强降水强度、极端降水量和日数的变化趋势不明显;间隔1～5d强降水日数呈增加趋势;1982年以来,5月和7月强降水发生频率显著增加,9月强降水发生频率锐减;强降水事件发生时间主要集中在7月份,1980年代以来,8月下旬也是强降水事件频发时段。

阿勒泰地区1961—2007年日照时数变化特征分析

利用阿勒泰地区7个气象观测站1961—2007年的资料,分析了阿勒泰地区年平均日照时数的变化和年际变化,并用"Mann-Kendall"法进行了年日照时数变化的突变检验。结果表明,阿勒泰地区47 a的平均年日照以14.9 h/10 a的倾向率减少;进入20世纪80年代以后降水日数的逐渐增加是影响日照时数减少的原因之一,发生从高向低突变的站点占发生突变总数站点的83%。

阿勒泰地区气候变化和生态环境可持续发展浅析

通过分析阿勒泰地区近53年的气温、降水变化和灾害性天气发生频次,证实了阿勒泰地区的气候在变暖变湿,并通过降水量和6月植被生长情况对比分析,发现阿勒泰地区冬季降水量多少和次年6月植被生长关系密切,证明了冬季开展人工増雪是保持阿勒泰地区生态环境的一种有利措施。

Study on the Model between the Occurrence Area of Grasshopper and the Characteristic Quantity Indexes of Atmospheric Circulation in Western Aletai

By analyzing the correlation between the occurrence area of grasshopper and 74 characteristic indexes of atmospheric circulation in western Aletai from 1991 to 2008,the atmospheric circulation factors which had the significant relationship with the occurrence area of grasshopper in different counties were screened.The prediction models for the occurrence area of grasshopper in different counties were established by stepwise regression method,and the models obtained were also tested.These models were subsequently utilized to carry out extended prediction on the occurrence area of grasshopper in different counties of western Aletai from 2009 to 2010.Meanwhile,the relationship between the atmospheric circulation factors and the occurrence area of grasshopper were analyzed.The results provided the theoretical basis for the prediction on grasshopper plague.