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石家庄暴雨时空分布特征及灾情评估
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作者 赵煊 李朝华 +2 位作者 韩子霏 张立霞 尚可 《河南科学》 2024年第7期1019-1027,共9页
基于石家庄市2015—2021年暴雨洪涝灾情资料数据,以及17个国家站及268个区域自动气象站数据,采用气候统计诊断方法分析了石家庄暴雨时空分布的气候特征,并利用灰色关联分析及逐步回归方法,建立了石家庄市暴雨灾情评估及预评估模型.结果... 基于石家庄市2015—2021年暴雨洪涝灾情资料数据,以及17个国家站及268个区域自动气象站数据,采用气候统计诊断方法分析了石家庄暴雨时空分布的气候特征,并利用灰色关联分析及逐步回归方法,建立了石家庄市暴雨灾情评估及预评估模型.结果表明:①石家庄暴雨频次及强度随时间呈递增趋势,暴雨强度年际变化增大且极端性增强.②石家庄西北部暴雨频次多、强度大,西南部暴雨频次相对较少,但强度最大,其中平山、井陉为大暴雨、特大暴雨高发区,复杂的地理环境使该地区发生暴雨洪涝灾害的风险增加.③由灰色关联分析方法确定的暴雨灾情等级正确率83.33%,能够反映实际暴雨灾情等级,且有利于客观区分同一等级内暴雨灾情大小.④基于气象因子,利用逐步回归方法建立的暴雨灾情评估及预评估模型正确率可达68.75%. 展开更多
关键词 暴雨 时空分布 灾情评估 灰色关联分析 逐步回归
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土壤非线性击穿效应对垂直接地体散流特性的影响 被引量:16
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作者 陶玉郎 侯文豪 +4 位作者 张其林 王梦寒 陈隆 申元 冯建伟 《电网技术》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2017年第5期1689-1696,共8页
基于L-D(Liew and Darveniza)提出的土壤非线性击穿模型,利用Taku Noda和Yoshihiro Baba等分别提出的导体在无耗介质和有耗介质中的细导线处理方案,开发了一套三维时域有限差分(three dimension finite-difference timedomain,3-D FDTD... 基于L-D(Liew and Darveniza)提出的土壤非线性击穿模型,利用Taku Noda和Yoshihiro Baba等分别提出的导体在无耗介质和有耗介质中的细导线处理方案,开发了一套三维时域有限差分(three dimension finite-difference timedomain,3-D FDTD)算法,研究了在不同雷电流幅值和波形以及土壤低频电导率作用下,土壤非线性击穿效应对垂直接地体受土壤击穿影响的散流区域、冲击阻抗和暂态地电位升等参数的影响。结果表明,当土壤低频电导率为0.02 S/m和0.005 S/m时,垂直接地体横向散流半径分别约为0.5 m和1.2 m;接地极尖端部位的纵向散流区域分别约为0.3 m和0.9 m。此外,暂态地电位升的变化特性与注入的雷电流幅值和波头时间以及土壤低频电导率密切相关,但无论是否考虑土壤击穿效应,垂直接地极冲击阻抗最大值保持不变,仅决定于土壤低频电导率等相关土壤特性参数。工程上定义的冲击阻抗值仅表征了未考虑土壤击穿情况下的稳定阶段阻抗值,远小于文中计算的冲击阻抗最大值。 展开更多
关键词 垂直接地体 冲击特性 土壤非线性击穿 三维时域有限差分(3-D FDTD)算法 冲击阻抗
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Comparison study of environmental influences on the intensification of different deep Changjiang-Huaihe cyclones over the East China and Yellow Seas
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作者 WANG Jian-hong NIU Dan +2 位作者 REN Shu-yuan MIAO Chun-sheng SONG Ping 《Marine Science Bulletin》 CAS 2017年第1期1-23,共23页
Abstract: Statistical classification of the intensification of different deepChangiang-Huaihe Cyclones (CHCs) over the East China and Yellow Seas (ECYSs)during 2008 to 2012 is studied using the FNL reanalysis dat... Abstract: Statistical classification of the intensification of different deepChangiang-Huaihe Cyclones (CHCs) over the East China and Yellow Seas (ECYSs)during 2008 to 2012 is studied using the FNL reanalysis data. Based on the penetrationdepth and the season of occurrence, the CHCs are divided into four categoriesincluding warm-season-deep (WSD), warm-season-shallow (WSS), winter-shallow(WTS) and early-spring-bottom (ESB). Statistics show the CHCs take either aneastward or a northeastward path after entering ECYSs. After moving to the seas, theintensification of CHCs is more significant in cold season than that in warm season.They all have the reduction of the friction of the underlying surface and the increase ofthe near surface winds. The area of strong winds extends and migrates from the east tothe southeast of the CHCs. A significant increase of precipitation during the warmseasons is consistent with the penetration depth of the cyclones. While a slight increaseof precipitation in cold season cyclones and scattered precipitation is observed behindthe ESB cyclones in the early stage of spring. Synthetic diagnosis analysis of the CHCsover ECYSs shows that the latent heat release plays an important role in theamplification of cyclones during the warm season. The ESB cyclones are sensitive tothe dynamic and thermal effects from the underlying surface. The vertical stretching of the positive vorticity volume is much more significant in ESB cyclones than that in othercyclones. The height of maximum upper level divergence is proportional to thepenetration depth of the cyclone for all the categories. Diabatic heating from the underlying surface is more prominent in cold season cyclones. Downward transport ofthe kinetic energy from upper level jet and the reduced friction both have positivecontributions to intensification of the CHCs. Moist Potential Vorticity (MPV) has morecontribution to the intensification of warm season cyclones, especially WSD cyclones.The combined effects from inertial stability and shear stability are beneficial to theamplification of the cyclones in cold season. The position and strength of thetemperature and moisture front from MPV2 term at 1000 hPa coincides with the areaand intensity of precipitation, which shows that the MPV2 is an effective reference forCHCs rainfall forecast. 展开更多
关键词 synoptic meteorology Changjiang-Huaihe Cyclones composite analysis weather characteristics structural characteristics environmental factors
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