Based on the data of 18 cases during the past 30 years from 1978 to 2007,the major meteorological conditions for outbreak of blue-green alga in Hongze Lake were analyzed.The results showed that the main meteorological...Based on the data of 18 cases during the past 30 years from 1978 to 2007,the major meteorological conditions for outbreak of blue-green alga in Hongze Lake were analyzed.The results showed that the main meteorological conditions that affected the production and outbreak of blue-green alga were unusual high monthly average temperature,less precipitation and more sunshine hours in ten days.Through the selection of 1 or 0 factors on the values of above meteorological conditions over the years,if the conditions were accorded with the outbreak of blue-green alga,the factor was signed as 1,or it would be signed as 0;if there was outbreak of blue-green alga within ten days,it was signed as 1,or it would be signed as 0;crossing interrelated and integrated prediction method was adopted to establish the prediction equation for outbreak of blue-green alga,the historical fitting rate was 87.5%,and the predicting accuracy rate in 2008-2009 was 87.5%.In addition to meteorological conditions,outbreak of blue-green alga was also influenced by industrial pollutions,etc.,which should be considered in the forecasting procedures.展开更多
文摘Based on the data of 18 cases during the past 30 years from 1978 to 2007,the major meteorological conditions for outbreak of blue-green alga in Hongze Lake were analyzed.The results showed that the main meteorological conditions that affected the production and outbreak of blue-green alga were unusual high monthly average temperature,less precipitation and more sunshine hours in ten days.Through the selection of 1 or 0 factors on the values of above meteorological conditions over the years,if the conditions were accorded with the outbreak of blue-green alga,the factor was signed as 1,or it would be signed as 0;if there was outbreak of blue-green alga within ten days,it was signed as 1,or it would be signed as 0;crossing interrelated and integrated prediction method was adopted to establish the prediction equation for outbreak of blue-green alga,the historical fitting rate was 87.5%,and the predicting accuracy rate in 2008-2009 was 87.5%.In addition to meteorological conditions,outbreak of blue-green alga was also influenced by industrial pollutions,etc.,which should be considered in the forecasting procedures.
