黑龙江省七星河湿地近50年气候变化特征分析

利用黑龙江省81个气象站1961～2007年逐日气温、降水量资料,采用气候学统计方法,对比分析了黑龙江省、双鸭山地区、宝清县、七星河湿地的气温、降水量气候变化趋势特征。结果表明,七星河湿地气温变化趋势与黑龙江省、双鸭山地区气温变暖趋势总体一致;气温升高趋势以年平均最低气温最显著、年平均气温次之、再次是年平均最高气温;七星河湿地对当地(宝清县)气候具有重要的调节作用。宝清县、七星河湿地近50年来年降水量总体呈下降趋势,黑龙江省、双鸭山地区降水量总体上呈增加趋势;在七星河湿地气温显著升高、降水量总体下降趋势下,七星河湿地的保护在水资源方面可能面临着缺水条件的制约,加强人工影响天气工作并充分利用云水资源可能是解决七星河湿地将面临缺水问题的重要途径之一。

气象因子对宝清县大豆和玉米产量的影响及预测

采用宝清县2004—2018年以来的气候、产量资料,采用滑动平均线性分析方法,从平均气温、降水量和日照气象因素对玉米和大豆产量的影响入手,利用多元回归分析方法,分析影响大豆和玉米产量的重要气象因子,建立影响玉米和大豆产量的气象因子和预报模型,为玉米和大豆高产种植提供科学依据,也为宝清县气象局开展农业气象服务,保障粮食生产提供重要气象支撑。

三江地区积雪变化与气候之间的关系—以宝清县为例

基于三江地区宝清县近20a来观测记录，利用3种方法检验了三江地区季节性积雪、冷季（11月．次年3月）降水量和冷季平均气温的变化趋势。结果表明，季节性积雪表现为弱的增加趋势（年平均增长率为0．005％），冷季降水量年平均增长率为0．317％，同期冷季平均气温上升1．32℃。通过相关分析表明，积雪与冷季降水量呈正相关，而与气温呈负相关。冷季降水量的增加促进了积雪的增加，但由于冷季气温升高趋势大于降水量增加趋势，冷季气温升高导致初雪日延迟而终雪日提前，缩短了积雪时间。因此，在全球和区域气候持续变暖的背景下，三江地区积雪量有可能减少。图5，表3，参19。

吉林省农作物生长季降水资源的时空分布特征

将5-9月作为吉林省农作物的生长季,利用吉林省47个气象站1961-2001年实测月降水数据,采用滑动平均、累计距平、EOF、REOF、Man-Kendall趋势分析和R/S分析等方法,研究生长季降水的时间序列、空间分布以及趋势性、持续性特征。结果表明:41a中,吉林省生长季降水表现为减少趋势(0.969mm/a);从空间上看,生长季降水存在4个相关性大的次区域;全省大部地区的变化趋势都与过去相同,即未来生长季降水变化趋势仍为减少趋势。

Analysis on the Climate Change Characteristics in Recent 50 Years in Qixinghe Wetland of Heilongjiang Province

Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data during 1961-2007 in 81 meteorological stations of Heilongjiang Province,the climate change trend characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Heilongjiang Province,Shuangyashan area,Baoqing County and Qixinghe Wetland were contrasted and analyzed by adopting the climatology statistics method. The results showed that the temperature change trend in Qixinghe Wetland was consistent with the temperature warming trends in Heilongjiang Province and Shuangyashan area. The annual average lowest temperature was the most obvious in the temperature warming trend,and the annual average temperature was the second. The annual average highest temperature was the third. Qixinghe Wetland had the important regulation effect on the local(Baoqing) climate. The annual precipitation in recent 50 years in Baoqing County,Qixinghe Wetland presented the decline trend and in Heilongjiang Province,Shuangyashan area presented the increase trend as a whole. In the trend which the temperature obviously rose,and the precipitation declined overall in Qixinghe Wetland,the protection of Qixinghe Wetland maybe faced with the restriction of water scarcity condition in the water resources aspect. One of important ways which solved with the water scarcity problem in Qixinghe Wetland maybe was strengthening the artificial effect weather work and using sufficiently the cloud water resources.