Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850

Since 2007,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature(ST)estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused.In Connolly et al.,we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)and ST data sets.We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST,one could(prematurely)conclude anything from the warming being“mostly human-caused”to“mostly natural.”Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was“erroneous”and“flawed”because we did not use a multilinear regression.They argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution statement.They also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were out-of-date.However,here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series,the original conclusions of Connolly et al.are confirmed for all five ST data sets.Therefore,it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused,mostly natural or some combination of both.

The double helium-white dwarf channel for the formation of AM CVn binaries

Most close double helium white dwarfs will merge within a Hubble time due to orbital decay by gravitational wave radiation.However,a significant fraction with low mass ratios will survive for a long time as a consequence of stable mass transfer.Such stable mass transfer between two helium white dwarfs（He WDs） provides one channel for the production of AM CVn binary stars.In previous calculations of double He WD progenitors,the accreting He WD was treated as a point mass.We have computed the evolution of 16 double He WD models in order to investigate the consequences of treating the evolution of both components in detail.We find that the boundary between binaries having stable and unstable mass transfer is slightly modified by this approach.By comparing with observed periods and mass ratios,we redetermine masses of eight known AM CVn stars by our double He WDs channel,i.e.HM Cnc,AM CVn,V406 Hya,J0926,J1240,GP Com,Gaia14 aae and V396 Hya.We propose that central spikes in the triple-peaked emission spectra of J1240,GP Com and V396 Hya and the surface abundance ratios of N/C/O in GP Com can be explained by the stable double He WD channel.The mass estimates derived from our calculations are used to discuss the predicted gravitational wave signal in the context of the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna（LISA） project.

How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends?An ongoing debate

In order to evaluate how much Total Solar Irradiance(TSI)has influenced Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature trends,it is important to have reliable estimates of both quantities.Sixteen different estimates of the changes in TSI since at least the 19th century were compiled from the literature.Half of these estimates are"low variability"and half are"high variability".Meanwhile,five largely-independent methods for estimating Northern Hemisphere temperature trends were evaluated using:1)only rural weather stations;2)all available stations whether urban or rural(the standard approach);3)only sea surface temperatures;4)tree-ring widths as temperature proxies;5)glacier length records as temperature proxies.The standard estimates which use urban as well as rural stations were somewhat anomalous as they implied a much greater warming in recent decades than the other estimates,suggesting that urbanization bias might still be a problem in current global temperature datasets-despite the conclusions of some earlier studies.Nonetheless,all five estimates confirm that it is currently warmer than the late 19th century,i.e.,there has been some"global warming"since the 19th century.For each of the five estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperatures,the contribution from direct solar forcing for all sixteen estimates of TSI was evaluated using simple linear least-squares fitting.The role of human activity on recent warming was then calculated by fitting the residuals to the UN IPCC’s recommended"anthropogenic forcings"time series.For all five Northern Hemisphere temperature series,different TSI estimates suggest everything from no role for the Sun in recent decades(implying that recent global warming is mostly human-caused)to most of the recent global warming being due to changes in solar activity(that is,that recent global warming is mostly natural).It appears that previous studies(including the most recent IPCC reports)which had prematurely concluded the former,had done so because they failed to adequately consider all the relevant estimates of TSI and/or to satisfactorily address the uncertainties still associated with Northern Hemisphere temperature trend estimates.Therefore,several recommendations on how the scientific community can more satisfactorily resolve these issues are provided.

Deriving the coronal hole electron temperature: electron density dependent ionization / recombination considerations

Comparison of appropriate theoretically derived line ratios with observational data can yield estimates of a plasma＇s physical parameters, such as electron density or temperature. The usual practice in the calculation of the line ratio is the assumption of excitation by electrons/protons followed by radiative decay. Furthermore, it is normal to use the so-called coronal approximation, i.e. one only considers ionization and recombination to and from the ground-state. A more accurate treatment is to include ionization/recombination to and from metastable levels. Here, we apply this to two lines from adjacent ionization stages, Mg IX 368A and Mg × 625A, which has been shown to be a very useful temperature diagnostic. At densities typical of coronal hole conditions, the difference between the electron temperature derived assuming the zero density limit compared with the electron density dependent ionization/recombination is small. This, however, is not the case for flares where the electron density is orders of magnitude larger. The derived temperature for the coronal hole at solar maximum is around 1.04MK compared to just below 0.82MK at solar minimum.

Observatory science with eXTP

In this White Paper we present the potential of the enhanced X-ray Timing and Polarimetry(eXTP) mission for studies related to Observatory Science targets. These include flaring stars, supernova remnants, accreting white dwarfs, low and high mass X-ray binaries, radio quiet and radio loud active galactic nuclei, tidal disruption events, and gamma-ray bursts. eXTP will be excellently suited to study one common aspect of these objects: their often transient nature. Developed by an international Consortium led by the Institute of High Energy Physics of the Chinese Academy of Science, the eXTP mission is expected to be launched in the mid 2020s.