Interdecadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Associated Atmospheric Circulations

Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data from 1950-1999, interdecadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） and its associated atmospheric circulations are investigated. The EASM exhibits a distinct interdecadal variation, with stronger （weaker） summer monsoon maintained from 1950-1964 （1976-1997）. In the former case, there is an enhanced Walker cell in the eastern Pacific and an anti-Walker cell in the western Pacific. The associated ascending motion resides in the central Pacific, which flows eastward and westward in the upper troposphere, descending in the eastern and western ends of the Pacific basin. At the same time, an anomalous East Asian Hadley Cell （EAHC） is found to connect the low-latitude and mid-latitude systems in East Asia, which strengthens the EASM. The descending branch of the EAHC lies in the west part of the anti-Walker cell, flowing northward in the lower troposphere and then ascending at the south of Lake Baikal （40°-50°N, 95°- 115°E） before returning to low latitudes in the upper troposphere, thus strengthening the EASM. The relationship between the EASM and SST in the eastern tropical Pacific is also discussed. A possible mechanism is proposed to link interdecadal variation of the EASM with the eastern tropical Pacific SST. A warmer sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） therein induces anomalous ascending motion in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a weaker Walker cell, and at the same time inducing an anomalous Walker cell in the western Pacific and an enhanced EAHC, leading to a weaker EASM. Furthermore, the interdecadal variation of summer precipitation over North China is found to be the south of Lake Baikal through enhancing and reducing strongly regulated by the velocity potential over the regional vertical motions.

Dynamic and Thermodynamic Features of Low and Middle Clouds Derived from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Mobile Facility Radiosonde Data at Shouxian, China

By using the radiosonde measurements collected at Shouxian,China,we examined the dynamics and thermodynamics of single- and two-layer clouds formed at low and middle levels.The analyses indicated that the horizontal wind speed above the cloud layers was higher than those within and below cloud layers.The maximum balloon ascent speed（5.3 m s^-1） was located in the vicinity of the layer with the maximum cloud occurrence frequency（24.4%）,indicating an upward motion（0.1-0.16 ms^-1）.The average thickness,magnitude and gradient of the temperature inversion layer above single-layer clouds were117±94 m,1.3±1.3℃ and 1.4±1.5℃（100 m）^-1,respectively.The average temperature inversion magnitude was the same（1.3℃） for single-low and single-middle clouds;however,a larger gradient[1.7±1.8℃（100 m）^-1]and smaller thickness（94±67 m） were detected above single-low clouds relative to those above single-middle clouds[0.9±0.7℃（100 m）^-1 and157±120 m].For the two-layer cloud,the temperature inversion parameters were 106±59 m,1.0±0.9℃ and 1.0±1.0℃（100 m）^-1 above the upper-layer cloud and 82 ± 60 m,0.6±0.9℃ and 0.7±0.6℃（100 m）^-1 above the low-layer cloud.Absolute differences between the cloud-base height（cloud-top height） and the lifting condensation level（equilibrium level）were less than 0.5 km for 66.4%（36.8%） of the cases analyzed in summer.

Atmospheric Circulation Cells Associated with Anomalous East Asian Winter Monsoon

Atmospheric circulation cells associated with anomalous East Asian Winter Monsoon （EAWM） were studied using the 1948/49 to 2002/03 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and NCAR CAM3 AGCM simulations with monthly global sea surface temperatures from 1950 to 2000. Several atmospheric cells in the Pacific [i.e., the zonal Walker cell （ZWC） in the tropic, the Hadley cell in the western Pacific （WPHC）, the midlatitude zonal cell （MZC） over the central North Pacific, and the Hadley cell in the eastern Pacific （EPHC）] are associated with anomalous EAWM. When the EAWM is strong, ZWC, WPHC, and MZC are enhanced, as opposed to EPHC. The anomalous enhanced ZWC is characterized by air parcels rising in the western tropical Pacific, flowing eastward in the upper troposphere, and descending in the tropical central Pacific before returning to the tropical western Pacific. The enhanced MZC has characteristics opposite those of the enhanced ZWC in the central North Pacific. The anomalous WPHC shows air parcels rising in the western Pacific, as in the case of ZWC, followed by flowing northward in the upper troposphere and descending in the west North Pacific, as in the case of the enhanced MZC before returning to the western tropical Pacific. The anomalous EPHC is opposite in properties to the anomalous WPHC. Opposite characteristics are found during the weak EAWM period. The model simulations and the observations show similar characteristics and indicate the important role of sea surface temperature. A possible mechanism is proposed to link interannual variation of EAWM with the central-eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA）.

Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Intensity

The interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)intensity and its mechanism are investigated in this study.The interannual variability of the low-level circulation of the SCSSM has experienced a significant interdecadal enhancement around the end of the 1980s,which may be attributed to the interdecadal changes in the evolution of the tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies and their impacts on the SCSSM.From 1961 to 1989,the low-level circulation over the South China Sea is primarily affected by the SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean via the mechanism of Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence.While in 1990 to 2020,the impacts of the summer SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent and the equatorial central to eastern Pacific on the SCSSM are enhanced,via anomalous meridional circulation and Mastuno-Gill type Rossby wave atmospheric response,respectively.The above interdecadal changes are closely associated with the interdecadal changes in the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events.The interdecadal variation of the summer SST anomalies in the developing and decaying phases of ENSO events enhances the influence of the tropical Indo-Pacific SST on the SCSSM,resulting in the interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the SCSSM.

中国东北地区17世纪后期的自然植被格局

通过整理、分析历史文献中的自然植被记录,复原了中国东北地区近代大规模农垦前(17世纪后期)的自然植被格局。结果表明,当时的主导植被类型是森林和草地,森林主要分布于山区,其中大兴安岭北端主要是寒温带落叶针叶林,长白山南端主要是温带落叶阔叶林,其余山区是针阔混交林,草地主要分布于东北平原和内蒙古高原,林-草的分界线与地表等高线有很好的对应关系;在三江平原分布有大面积的沼泽。潜在植被格局与历史自然植被格局基本一致,但是林-草分界线有明显差异,且潜在植被图中没有沼泽。

高效率颗粒物微物理模型简介与重污染过程应用分析

中国细颗粒物(PM2.5)导致的空气污染和雾霾天气问题越来越突出,在低层对流层中很多地方都有显著的二次颗粒物生成过程,因此对颗粒物物理化学转化过程的研究具有重要意义,其转化过程对空气质量模式模拟和预报的准确性有重要影响。高效率颗粒物微物理(APM)模型经过近20多年的研究和发展,在全球化学传输模型(GEOS-Chem)、区域性气象和化学预报模型(WRF-Chem)通用地球系统模型(CESM-CAM5)等气象及环境空气质量预报模型中取得了很好的应用验证,能够在全球/区域等不同尺度对粒子生成、长大、凝聚、消除等微物理过程以及气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)、直接/间接辐射强迫等进行模拟。应用GEOS-Chem-APM模式模拟了2014年2月京津冀区域的重污染过程。结果显示,湿度模拟的准确性对其他物理和污染物浓度等模拟结果有重要作用;2月20—26日的重污染过程模拟结果与实际观测较为吻合,主要污染特点是较高的湿度(90%以上),同时,二次颗粒物和包裹了二次物种的一次颗粒物(黑碳/有机碳)是低能见度的最大贡献者。

云三维结构对加热率廓线及通量影响的模拟

大气加热率强度与结构是驱动全球大气环流的关键因素,实际加热率分布与云三维结构密切相关。作者使用三维蒙特卡洛辐射传输模式,模拟计算了云分辨模式所得3个典型三维云场的加热率廓线及通量;定义了两个参数来同时描述加热率廓线的垂直分布和强度,通过与独立像素近似算法对比,定量统计分析了高分辨率下云三维结构对辐射的影响。结果表明,在高分辨率条件下云三维结构对加热率廓线和通量影响十分显著,且不同结构云场所体现的影响各具特点,提出需要考察现有大气模式中云三维结构对当前所用加热率计算方案的订正方向。

奥斯特/GPS掩星与地面雷达联合观测电离层电子密度的初步结果

1999年2月丹麦发射了一颗奥斯特小卫星,它装载了两台GPS接收机,其中一台用于电离层和中性大气掩星测量,另一台用于自主定位。本文给出了1999年10月奥斯特/GPS掩星与日本MU雷达和数字测高仪的联合观测结果。奥斯特掩星反演得到的电子密度剖面与地面雷达观测的进行了比较,结果表明:天基和地基雷达观测的电子密度是一致的。文章还给出利用GPS的单频信号反演电离层电子密度剖面技术和3维射线追踪技术模拟掩星结果。

Agriculture Development-induced Surface Albedo Changes and Climatic Implications Across Northeastern China

To improve the understandings on regional climatic effects of past human-induced land cover changes,the surface albedo changes caused by conversions from natural vegetation to cropland were estimated across northeastern China over the last 300 years,and its climatic effects were simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.Essential natural vegetation records compiled from historical documents and regional optimal surface albedo dataset were used.The results show that the surface albedo decreased by 0.01-0.03 due to conversions from grassland to cropland in the Northeast China Plain and it increased by 0.005-0.015 due to conversions from forests to cropland in the surrounding mountains.As a consequence,in the Northeast China Plain,the surface net radiation increased by 4-8 W/m 2,2-5 W/m 2,and 1-3 W/m 2,and the climate was therefore warmed by 0.1℃-0.2℃、0.1℃-0.2℃、 0.1℃-0.3 ℃ in the spring,autumn and winter,respectively.In the surrounding mountain area,the net radiation decreased by less than 1.5 W/m 2,and the climate was therefore cooled too slight to be detected.In summer,effects of surface albedo changes on climate were closely associated with moisture dynamics,such as evapotranspiration and cloud,instead of being merely determined by surface radiation budget.The simulated summer climatic effects have large uncertainties.These findings demonstrate that surface albedo changes resulted in warming climate effects in the non-rainy seasons in Northeast China Plain through surface radiation processes while the climatic effects in summer could hardly be concluded so far.

A Polarized Radiative Transfer Model Based on Successive Order of Scattering

Based on Successive Order of Scattering approach, a full Vector Radiative Transfer model （SOSVRT） for vertically inhomogeneous plane-parallel media has been developed. To overcome the computational burdens of convergence, a simple approximation technique by truncating scattering orders with a geometric series is used to reduce computational time. Analytical Fourier decomposition of phase matrix with three symmetry relationships and two mutual inverse operators have been implemented to further improve the computational efficiency. To improve the accuracy, a post-processing procedure is implemented to accurately interpolate the Stokes vector at arbitrary angles. Comparisons with the benchmarks for an atmosphere of randomly orientated oblate spheroids show excellent agreement for each Stokes parameter （within 0.1%）. SOSVRT has been tested for different atmospheric condition against RT3, which is based on doubling-adding method, and the results prove that SOSVRT is accurate and much more efficient in vector radiative transfer modeling, especially for optical thin atmosphere, which is the most common case in polarized radiative transfer simulations. SOSVRT is written in Fortran 90 and the code is freely accessible by contacting the author.

Association between Ambient Air Pollution and Hospital Emergency Admissions for Respiratory and Cardiovascular Diseases in Beijing: a Time Series Study

Objective To investigate the association between ambient air pollution and hospital emergency admissions in Beijing. Methods In this study, a semi-parametric generalized additive model （GAM） was used to evaluate the specific influences of air pollutants （PM10, SO2, and NO2） on hospital emergency admissions with different lag structures from 2009 to 2011, the sex and age specific influences of air pollution and the modifying effect of seasons on air pollution to analyze the possible interaction. Results It was found that a 10μg/m3 increase in concentration of PMlo at lag 03 day, SO2 and NO2 at lag 0 day were associated with an increase of 0.88%, 0.76%, and 1.82% respectively in overall emergency admissions. A 10 lag/m3 increase in concentration of PM10, SO2 and NO2 at lag 5 day were associated with an increase of 1.39%, 1.56%, and 1.18% respectively in cardiovascular disease emergency admissions. For lag 02, a 10 μg/m3 increase in concentration of PM10, SO2 and NO2 were associated with 1.72%, 1.34%, and 2.57% increases respectively in respiratory disease emergency admissions. Conclusion This study further confirmed that short-term exposure to ambient air pollution was associated with increased risk of hospital emergency admissions in Beijing.

Temperature and Precipitation Changes in China During the Holocene

We review here proxy records of temperature and precipitation in China during the Holocene, especially the last two millennia. The quality of proxy data, methodology of reconstruction, and uncertainties in reconstruction were emphasized in comparing different temperature and precipitation reconstruction and clarifying temporal and spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation during the Holocene. The Holocene climate was generally warm and wet. The warmest period occurred in 9.6-6.2 cal ka BP, whereas a period of maximum monsoon precipitation started at about 11.0 cal ka BP and lasted until about 8.0-5.0 cal ka BP. There were a series of millennial-scale cold or dry events superimposed on the general trend of climate changes. During past two millennia, a warming trend in the 20th century was clearly detected, but the warming magnitude was smaller than the maximum level of the Medieval Warm Period and the Middle Holocene. Cold conditions occurred over the whole of China during the Little Ice Age （AD 1400-AD 1900）, but the warming of the Medieval Warm Period （AD 900-AD 1300） was not distinct in China, especially west China. The spatial pattern of precipitation showed significant regional differences in China, especially east China. The modern warm period has lasted 20 years from 1987 to 2006. Bi-decadal oscillation in precipitation variability was apparent over China during the 20th century. Solar activity and volcanic eruptions both were major forcings governing the climate variability during the last millennium.

THE VARIATION OF EVAPORATION OVER SOUTH CHINA AND ITS RELATIONSHIPS TO PRECIPITATION

The evaporation rate over South China is estimated based on the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation(CMAP)data and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data from 1979 to 2007. The temporal variation of evaporation over South China and its relationship to precipitation are discussed. Climatologically,the evaporation rate over South China is the largest in July and smallest in March.In spring and summer,the evaporation rate is approximately one half of the precipitation rate.However,the evaporation rate is approximately equal to the precipitation rate in fall and winter.The year-to-year variation of the evaporation rate over South China is quite in phase with that of the precipitation rate in the period from February to May but out of phase with that of the precipitation rate in early winter.Over South China there is a pronounced decreasing trend in the evaporation in colder seasons and a positive correlation between the evaporation variation and the rainfall variation in spring.In summer,the abnormality of rainfall over South China is closely related to the anomalous evaporation over the northeastern part of the South China Sea and its eastern vicinity.In winter,the rainfall variation in South China has a close linkage with the evaporation variation in a belt area covering the eastern Arabian Sea,the Bay of Bengal,the southeastern periphery of the Plateau,the southern part of South China Sea and the central part of Indonesia.

Mortality Risk Attributed to Ambient Temperature in Nanjing, China

We examined the attributed fractions of all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality that were attributed to extreme and moderate cold and heat during 2010-2016 in Nanjing. Our results showed that 12.81%, 19.78%, and 25.33% of all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortalities, respectively, were attributed to temperature. The highest attributed fractions for three types of mortality were at 4 ℃ and the attributed fractions were high around 4 ℃, which falls within the moderate cold temperatures. Although moderate cold has lower RR than extreme cold, it occurred on more days than did extreme cold. Therefore, health burden caused by moderate cold requires further attention in the future.

A Study on Sulfate Optical Properties and Direct Radiative Forcing Using LASG-IAP General Circulation Model

The direct radiative forcing （DRF） of sulfate aerosols depends highly on the atmospheric sulfate loading and the meteorology, both of which undergo strong regional and seasonal variations. Because the optical properties of sulfate aerosols are also sensitive to atmospheric relative humidity, in this study we first examine the scheme for optical properties that considers hydroscopic growth. Next, we investigate the seasonal and regional distributions of sulfate DRF using the sulfate loading simulated from NCAR CAM-Chem together with the meteorology modeled from a spectral atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） developed by LASG-IAP. The global annual-mean sulfate loading of 3.44 mg m-2 is calculated to yield the DRF of -1.03 and -0.57 W m-2 for clear-sky and all-sky conditions, respectively. However, much larger values occur on regional bases. For example, the maximum all-sky sulfate DRF over Europe, East Asia, and North America can be up to -4.0 W m-2. The strongest all-sky sulfate DRF occurs in the Northern Hemispheric July, with a hemispheric average of -1.26 W m-2. The study results also indicate that the regional DRF are strongly affected by cloud and relative humidity, which vary considerably among the regions during different seasons. This certainly raises the issue that the biases in model-sinmlated regional meteorology can introduce biases into the sulfate DRF. Hence, the model processes associated with atmospheric humidity and cloud physics should be modified in great depth to improve the simulations of the LASG-IAP AGCM and to reduce the uncertainty of sulfate direct effects on global and regional climate in these simulations.

Diurnal Temperature Range and Daily Emergency Room Admissions among the Elderly in Beijing,China

In recent years, more attentions have been paid to the association between climate change and human health. Increasing and more variable global surface temperature is one of the key climatic change factors which have been consistently reported about the effect on human health. So far, more researches have revealed that temperature lead not only to direct deaths and illnesses but also to aggravation of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Typically, the relationship between temperature and mortality or morbidity is V-, U-, or J- shaped, with optimum temperature corresponding to the lowest point in the temperature mortality curve.

Variations in High-frequency Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones （TCs） over the western North Pacific （WNP） are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m （MWS10） from an ensemble of 15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS10 are similar in the WNP and South China Sea （SCS）; however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS （1.93 h） is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP （2.83 h）. The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations, and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit （2008）. The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.

Temporal Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts Using a Stochastic Weather Generator

Statistical downscaling is based on the fact that the large-scale climatic state and regional/local physiographic features control the regional climate. In the present paper, a stochastic weather generator is applied to seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts produced by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society （IRI）. In conjunction with the GLM （generalized linear modeling） weather generator, a resampling scheme is used to translate the uncertainty in the seasonal forecasts （the IRI format only specifies probabilities for three categories： below normal, near normal, and above normal） into the corresponding uncertainty for the daily weather statistics. The method is able to generate potentially useful shifts in the probability distributions of seasonally aggregated precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature, as well as more meaningful daily weather statistics for crop yields, such as the number of dry days and the amount of precipitation on wet days. The approach is extended to the case of climate change scenarios, treating a hypothetical return to a previously observed drier regime in the Pampas.

A Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy Method for X_(CO_2) Retrieval from Ground-Based Fourier Transform Spectrometers Measurements of the Direct Solar Beam

A differential optical absorption spectroscopy （DOAS）-like algorithm is developed to retrieve the column-averaged dry- air mole fraction of carbon dioxide from ground-based hyper-spectral measurements of the direct solar beam. Different to the spectral fitting method, which minimizes the difference between the observed and simulated spectra, the ratios of multiple channel-pairs--one weak and one strong absorption channel--are used to retrieve Xc02 from measurements of the shortwave infrared （SWIR） band. Based on sensitivity tests, a super channel-pair is carefully selected to reduce the effects of solar lines, water vapor, air temperature, pressure, instrument noise, and frequency shift on retrieval errors. The new algorithm reduces computational cost and the retrievals are le^s sensitive to temperature and H20 uncertainty than the spectral fitting method. Multi-day Total Carbon Column Observing Network （TCCON） measurements under clear-sky conditions at two sites （Tsukuba and Bremen） are used to derive Xc02 for the algorithm evaluation and validation. The DOAS-like results agree very well with those of the TCCON algorithm after correction of an airmass-dependent bias.