Influence of Irregular Coastlines on a Tornadic Mesovortex in the Pearl River Delta during the Monsoon Season. Part I: Pre-storm Environment and Storm Evolution

The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China Sea.During the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective weather.This two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this region.Part I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm evolutions.The rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold outflows.This intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and convergence.Based on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple point.Developed over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level mesovortex.It is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical simulations.The findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear environment.Improved knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.

Distribution and Formation Causes of PM_(2.5) and O_(3) Double High Pollution Events in China during 2013–20

Fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))and ozone(O_(3))double high pollution(DHP)events have occurred frequently over China in recent years,but their causes are not completely clear.In this study,the spatiotemporal distribution of DHP events in China during 2013–20 is analyzed.The synoptic types affecting DHP events are identified with the Lamb–Jenkinson circulation classification method.The meteorological and chemical causes of DHP events controlled by the main synoptic types are further investigated.Results show that DHP events(1655 in total for China during 2013–20)mainly occur over the North China Plain,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,Sichuan Basin,and Central China.The occurrence frequency increases by 5.1%during 2013–15,and then decreases by 56.1%during 2015–20.The main circulation types of DHP events are“cyclone”and“anticyclone”,accounting for over 40%of all DHP events over five main polluted regions in China,followed by southerly or easterly flat airflow types,like“southeast”,“southwest”,and“east”.Compared with non-DHP events,DHP events are characterized by static or weak wind,high temperature(20.9℃ versus 23.1℃)and low humidity(70.0%versus 64.9%).The diurnal cycles of meteorological conditions cause PM_(2.5)(0300–1200 LST,Local Standard Time=UTC+8 hours)and O_(3)(1500–2100 LST)to exceed the national standards at different periods of the DHP day.Three pollutant conversion indices further indicate the rapid secondary conversions during DHP events,and thus the concentrations of NO_(2),SO_(2) and volatile organic compounds decrease by 13.1%,4.7%and 4.4%,respectively.The results of this study can be informative for future decisions on the management of DHP events.

A Review of Atmospheric Chemistry Research in China:Photochemical Smog, Haze Pollution,and Gas-Aerosol Interactions

In this paper we present a review of atmospheric chemistry research in China over the period 2006-2010, focusing on tropospheric ozone, aerosol chemistry, and the interactions between trace gases and aerosols in the polluted areas of China. Over the past decade, China has suffered severe photochemical smog and haze pollution, especially in North China, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta. Much scientific work on atmospheric chemistry and physics has been done to address this large-scale, complex environmental problem. Intensive field experiments, satellite data analyses, and model simulations have shown that air pollution is significantly changing the chemical and physical characters of the natural atmosphere over these parts of China. In addition to strong emissions of primary pollutants, photochemical and heterogeneous reactions play key roles in the formation of complex pollution. More in-depth research is recommended to reveal the formation mechanism of photochemical smog and haze pollution and their climatic effects at the urban, regional, and global scales.

The East Pacific Wavetrain:Its Variability and Impact on the Atmospheric Circulation in the Boreal Winter

The East Pacific wavetrain （EPW） refers to here the intense stationary wave activity detected in the troposphere over the East Pacific and North America in 45 northern winters from 1958 to 2002. The EPW is generated in the lower troposphere over the East Pacific, propagating predominantly eastward into North America and slightly upward then eventually into the stratosphere. The intensity of the EPW varies from year to year and exhibits apparent decadal variability. For the period 1958-1964, the EPW was in its second maximum, and it was weakest for the period 1965-1975, then it was strongest for the period 1976-1987. After 1987, the EPW weakened again. The intensity and position of the members （i.e., the Aleutian low, the North American trough, and the North American ridge） of the EPW oscillate from time to time. For an active EPW versus a weak EPW, the Aleutian low deepens abnormally and shifts its center from the west to the east of the date line, in the middle and upper troposphere the East Asian trough extends eastward, and the Canadian ridge intensifies at the same time. The opposite is true for a weak EPW. Even in the lower stratosphere, significant changes in the stationary wave pattern are also observed. Interestingly the spatial variability of the EPW assumes a Pacific-North American （PNA）-like telecon- nection pattern. It is likely that the PNA low-frequency oscillation is a reflection of the oscillations of intensity and position of the members of the EPW in horizontal direction.

Background Characteristics of Atmospheric CO2 and the Potential Source Regions in the Pearl River Delta Region of China

Mole fractions of atmospheric CO2(XCO2)have been continuously measured from October 2014 to March 2016 at the Guangzhou Panyu Atmospheric Composition Site(23.00°N,113.21°E;140 m MSL)in the Pearl River Delta(PRD)region using a cavity ring-down spectrometer.Approximately 66.63%,19.28%,and 14.09%of the observed values were filtered as background,pollutant source,and sink due to biospheric uptake,respectively,by applying a robust local regression procedure.Their corresponding mean values were 424.12±10.12 ppm(×10-6 mol mol-1),447.83±13.63 ppm,and 408.83±7.75 ppm.The background XCO2 levels were highest in spring and winter,moderate in autumn,and lowest in summer.The diurnal XCO2 was at a minimum from 1400-1600 LST(Local Standard Time)and a maximum at 0500 LST the next day.The increase of XCO2 in spring and summer was mainly associated with polluted air masses from south coastal Vietnam,the South China Sea,and the southeast Pearl River Estuary.With the exception of summer,airflow primarily from marine regions southeast of Taiwan that passed over the Pearl River Estuary had a greater impact on XCO2,suggesting an important potential source region.

Atmospheric frontal gravity waves observed in satellite SAR images of the Bohai Sea and Huanghai Sea

In the satellite synthetic aperture radar（SAR） images of the Bohai Sea and Huanghai Sea,the authors observe sea surface imprints of wave-like patterns with an average wavelength of 3.8 km.Comparing SAR observations with sea surface wind fields and surface weather maps,the authors find that the occurrence of the wave-like phenomena is associated with the passing of atmospheric front.The authors define the waves as atmospheric frontal gravity waves.The dynamical parameters of the wave packets are derived from statistics of 9 satellite SAR images obtained from 2002 to 2008.A two-dimensional linear physical wave model is used to analyze the generation mechanism of the waves.The atmospheric frontal wave induced wind variation across the frontal wave packet is compared with wind retrievals from the SAR images.The CMOD-5（C-band scatterometer ocean geophysical model function） is used for SAR wind retrievals VV（transmitted vertical and received vertical） for ENVISAT and HH（transmitted horizontally and received horizontally） for RADARSAT-1.A reasonable agreement between the analytical solution and the SAR observation is reached.This new SAR frontal wave observation adds to the school of SAR observations of sea surface imprints of AGWs including island lee waves,coastal lee waves,and upstream Atmospheric Gravity Waves（AGW）.

Recent Advances in China on the Predictability of Weather and Climate

This article summarizes the progress made in predictability studies of weather and climate in recent years in China,with a main focus on advances in methods to study error growth dynamics and reduce uncertainties in the forecasting of weather and climate.Specifically,it covers(a)advances in methods to study weather and climate predictability dynamics,especially those in nonlinear optimal perturbation methods associated with initial errors and model errors and their applications to ensemble forecasting and target observations,(b)new data assimilation algorithms for initialization of predictions and novel assimilation approaches to neutralize the combined effects of initial and model errors for weather and climate,(c)applications of new statistical approaches to climate predictions,and(d)studies on meso-to small-scale weather system predictability dynamics.Some of the major frontiers and challenges remaining in predictability studies are addressed in this context.

The Response of Anomalous Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Patterns Related to Drought and Flood in Southern China to Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

With the extreme drought(flood)event in southern China from July to August in 2022(1999)as the research object,based on the comprehensive diagnosis and composite analysis on the anomalous drought and flood years from July to August in 1961-2022,it is found that there are significant differences in the characteristics of the vertically integrated moisture flux(VIMF)anomaly circulation pattern and the VIMF convergence(VIMFC)anomaly in southern China in drought and flood years,and the VIMFC,a physical quantity,can be regarded as an indicative physical factor for the"strong signal"of drought and flood in southern China.Specifically,in drought years,the VIMF anomaly in southern China is an anticyclonic circulation pattern and the divergence characteristics of the VIMFC are prominent,while those are opposite in flood years.Based on the SST anomaly in the typical draught year of 2022 in southern China and the SST deviation distribution characteristics of abnormal draught and flood years from 1961 to 2022,five SST high impact areas(i.e.,the North Pacific Ocean,Northwest Pacific Ocean,Southwest Pacific Ocean,Indian Ocean,and East Pacific Ocean)are selected via the correlation analysis of VIMFC and the global SST in the preceding months(May and June)and in the study period(July and August)in 1961-2022,and their contributions to drought and flood in southern China are quantified.Our study reveals not only the persistent anomalous variation of SST in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean but also its impact on the pattern of moisture transport.Furthermore,it can be discovered from the positive and negative phase fitting of SST that the SST composite flow field in high impact areas can exhibit two types of anomalous moisture transport structures that are opposite to each other,namely an anticyclonic(cyclonic)circulation pattern anomaly in southern China and the coastal areas of east China.These two types of opposite anomalous moisture transport structures can not only drive the formation of drought(flood)in southern China but also exert its influence on the persistent development of the extreme weather.

Recent Advances in Understanding Multi-scale Climate Variability of the Asian Monsoon

Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system.In this paper,the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed,with a focus on the past several years.The achievements are summarized into the following topics:(1)the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon;(2)the East Asian summer monsoon;(3)the East Asian winter monsoon;and(4)the Indian summer monsoon.Specifically,new results are highlighted,including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea,Bay of Bengal,Indochina Peninsula,and South China Sea;the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020,which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes;the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions,which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability(mostly the Arctic Oscillation);and the accelerated warming over South Asia,which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming,is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999.A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.

A Review of Atmospheric Electricity Research in China from 2019 to 2022

Atmospheric electricity is composed of a series of electric phenomena in the atmosphere.Significant advances in atmospheric electricity research conducted in China have been achieved in recent years.In this paper,the research progress on atmospheric electricity achieved in China during 2019-22 is reviewed focusing on the following aspects:(1)lightning detection and location techniques,(2)thunderstorm electricity,(3)lightning forecasting methods and techniques,(4)physical processes of lightning discharge,(5)high energy emissions and effects of thunderstorms on the upper atmosphere,and(6)the effect of aerosol on lightning.

Observed decadal shifts and trends in global tropical cyclone activities from 1980 to 2021

研究发现在1980-2021期间全球6个海域每年热带气旋的发生频次和强度具有显著年代际变化规律,最近几十年,北大西洋和北印度洋的热带气旋发生频次明显增加,但西北太平洋的热带气旋却显著下降.另外三个海域,东太平洋,南印度洋和南太平洋发现所生成的热带气旋有减少趋势.但在过去十几年,平均热带气旋的强度除了在东太平洋和北大西洋有所减弱但在其他几个海域有所加强,特别是在2013-2021期间,北印度洋的平均热带气旋的强度增强明显.热带气旋的潜在生成指数(GPI)增加或减少趋势变化与北印度洋,北大西洋和西太平洋热带气旋变化相关的大尺度环流一致.另外,北印度洋,北大西洋和西太平洋上空的垂直风切变是影响其区域热带气旋发生频次变化的主要因子,不同的气候模态也可能对全球热带气旋的趋势变化和年代际变化有影响,值得进一步研究.

China’s Recent Progresses in Polar Climate Change and Its Interactions with the Global Climate System

During the recent four decades since 1980,a series of modern climate satellites were launched,allowing for the measurement and record-keeping of multiple climate parameters,especially over the polar regions where traditional observations are difficult to obtain.China has been actively engaging in polar expeditions.Many observations were conducted during this period,accompanied by improved Earth climate models,leading to a series of insightful understandings concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate changes.Here,we review the recent progress China has made concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate change research over the past decade.The Arctic temperature increase is much higher than the global-mean warming rate,associated with a rapid decline in sea ice,a phenomenon called the Arctic Amplification.The Antarctic climate changes showed a zonally asymmetric pattern over the past four decades,with most of the fastest changes occurring over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula.The Arctic and Antarctic climate changes were driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and ozone loss,while tropical-polar teleconnections play important roles in driving the regional climate changes and extreme events over the polar regions.Polar climate changes may also feedback to the entire Earth climate system.The adjustment of the circulation in both the troposphere and the stratosphere contributed to the interactions between the polar climate changes and lower latitudes.Climate change has also driven rapid Arctic and Southern ocean acidification.Chinese researchers have made a series of advances in understanding these processes,as reviewed in this paper.

Sawtooth and dune auroras simultaneously driven by waves around the plasmapause

The dune aurora,at a scale of~30 kilometers,was reported recently using ground camera.The small-scale dune aurora occurs on the duskside and exhibits a monochromatic oscillation in the auroral emission,implying fundamental energy conversions.However,whether the dune auroras correspond to atmospheric waves or are associated with magnetospheric dynamics should be determined.This paper reports a dune aurora that occurred during a storm;further,we demonstrate that it was the substructure of the sawtooth aurora that was generated by plasmapause surface waves.Conjugate observations in the magnetospheric source region suggest that the exohiss waves,which are periodically modulated by the plasmapause surface wave-excited ultralow frequency wave,might be responsible for the generation of the dune aurora.Most reported dune aurora events have occurred simultaneously with sawtooth auroras,suggesting that both are plasmapause-driven cross-scale auroral structures.

Preface to Special Topic on Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Application in China

China initiated a national carbon trading market in December 2017.Commitments and actions to reduce greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions require consistent,reliable and timely information on GHG emissions.GHG monitoring and modeling studies provide GHG emission estimates to evaluate and guide progress towards emission reductions.GHG monitoring has mainly focused on global-scale background networks over the last few decades,while recent efforts have been made on regional and urban scales,such as projects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster,in Paris,Washington-Baltimore.

Application of Merged Precipitation Estimation Technique to Study Intense Rainfall Events over India and Associated Oceanic Region

In this paper, an effort has been made to study heavy rainfall events during cyclonic storms and active monsoon cycle over Indian land and associated oceanic regions from recently developed merged rainfall technique using rain gauge and multi-satellite observations from Precipitation Radar (PR) onboard Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) onboard Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and Meteosat of Eumetsat. Four recent cyclonic events namely Gonu, Bijli, Aila and Laila were qualitatively analyzed using rainfall from this technique. This technique is validated against another merged rainfall product TRMM-3B42V6 and rain gauge observations during heavy rainfall events of the years 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010. Results presented in this study show that the heavy rainfall events are efficiently monitored by this technique.

Impact of Saharan dust on landfalling North Atlantic tropical cyclones over North America in September

本项研究利用再分析数据和模式模拟数据分析了沙尘的气溶胶光学厚度与台风的登陆,轨迹,强度及相关气象环境参数的关系,揭示了9月北大西洋台风的登陆次数会在撒哈拉沙尘较强的年份中增加,以及这一现象的物理机制,撒哈拉沙尘对热带北大西洋中部海表温度具有抑制作用,会阻碍该地区的台风活动,因此台风只能向西移动进入海表温度较高的热带北大西洋西部,从而更易于形成强台风,这一物理过程将导致台风登陆北美大陆的频次增加,特别是强台风登陆美国的可能性增强,产生更大的潜在破坏性.

A New Sensitivity Analysis Approach Using Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations and Its Preliminary Application

Simulations and predictions using numerical models show considerable uncertainties,and parameter uncertainty is one of the most important sources.It is impractical to improve the simulation and prediction abilities by reducing the uncertainties of all parameters.Therefore,identifying the sensitive parameters or parameter combinations is crucial.This study proposes a novel approach:conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations sensitivity analysis(CNOPSA)method.The CNOPSA method fully considers the nonlinear synergistic effects of parameters in the whole parameter space and quantitatively estimates the maximum effects of parameter uncertainties,prone to extreme events.Results of the analytical g-function test indicate that the CNOPSA method can effectively identify the sensitivity of variables.Numerical results of the theoretical five-variable grassland ecosystem model show that the maximum influence of the simulated wilted biomass caused by parameter uncertainty can be estimated and computed by employing the CNOPSA method.The identified sensitive parameters can easily change the simulation or prediction of the wilted biomass,which affects the transformation of the grassland state in the grassland ecosystem.The variance-based approach may underestimate the parameter sensitivity because it only considers the influence of limited parameter samples from a statistical view.This study verifies that the CNOPSA method is effective and feasible for exploring the important and sensitive physical parameters or parameter combinations in numerical models.

Understanding the Development of the 2018/19 Central Pacific El Niño

A central Pacific(CP)El Niño event occurred in 2018/19.Previous studies have shown that different mechanisms are responsible for different subtypes of CP El Niño events(CP-I El Niño and CP-II El Niño).By comparing the evolutions of surface winds,ocean temperatures,and heat budgets of the CP-I El Niño,CP-II El Niño,and 2018/19 El Niño,it is illustrated that the subtropical westerly anomalies in the North Pacific,which led to anomalous convergence of Ekman flow and surface warming in the central equatorial Pacific,played an important role in the 2018/19 El Niño event as well as in the CP-II El Niño.Although the off-equatorial forcing played a vital role,it is found that the equatorial forcing acted as a driving(damping)term in boreal spring(summer)of the 2018/19 El Niño.The 2018/19 El Niño provides a timely and vivid example that helps illustrate the proposed mechanism of the CP El Niño,which could be leveraged to improve El Niño predictability.

Preface to the Special Issue on the 14th International Conference on Mesoscale Convective Systems and High-Impact Weather

A mesoscale convective system(MCS)is an organized cluster of thunderstorms known to be the most important convective mode in causing disastrous high-impact weather,such as heavy rainfall,hail,damaging winds,and tornadoes.The small spatial scale and fast temporal evolution of MCSs make their observation and prediction very challenging.East Asia is home to the world’s most prominent monsoon,setting the stage for various severe convective weather events.MCSs and their associated high-impact weather have long been critical issues of concern;as such,their research efforts are valued by governments in East Asia.

Thunderstorm and Lightning Activities over Western Pacific,Northern Indian Ocean and South China Sea Along with Their Adjacent Lands

The Lightning Imaging Sensor(LIS)and Radar Precipitation Feature(RPF)data are used to investigate the activities and properties of lightning and thunderstorms over a region including the Western Pacific,northern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea along with their adjacent lands.The lands feature significantly more frequent lightning flashes and thunderstorms than the oceans,especially the open oceans.The highest densities of lightning and thunderstorm occur over the Strait of Malacca and the southern foothills of the Himalayas.Over the ocean regions,the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea are characterized by relatively frequent lightning and thunderstorm activities.Larger average spatiotemporal size and optical radiance of flashes can be found over the oceans;specifically,the offshore area features the most significant flash duration,and the open ocean area is characterized by the greatest flash length and optical radiance.The smallest average values of flash properties can be found over and around the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The oceanic thunderstorms tend to have a significantly larger horizontal extent than the continental thunderstorms,with the former and latter having the average area of the regions with radar reflectivity larger than 20 dBZ,generally over 7000 km^(2) and commonly below 6000 km^(2),respectively.The TP thunderstorms show the smallest horizontal extent.Meanwhile,the oceanic thunderstorms exhibit greater 20 dBZ but smaller 40 dBZ top heights than the continental thunderstorms.The average flash frequency and density of the oceanic thunderstorms are typically less than 5 fl min^(-1) and 0.3 fl 100 km^(-2) min^(-1),respectively;in contrast,the corresponding values of continental thunderstorms are greater.It is explored that the regions associated with strong convective thunderstorms are more likely to feature small-horizontal-extent and low-radiance flashes.