基于替代数据法和MF-DFA的合意工业产能利用率区间估计方法及应用

为实现工业产能过剩的精准判别与调控,提出了一种基于替代数据法与多重分形去趋势波动分析的合意工业产能利用率区间估计方法。首先判断原始时序的长程相关性和多重分形特征;然后采用替代数据法与多重分形去趋势波动分析计算出所有重排序列的Hurst指数,据此确定指数序列收敛情况和合意产能利用率区间;最后以煤炭行业为例验证了模型的有效性。结果表明:该方法能够从数据自身演化规律中自适应确定阈值,有效克服了传统统计与经验方法的主观性和缺乏理论依据的局限性;我国煤炭行业的合意产能利用率区间为73.73%~86.23%。该研究为工业产能过剩风险监测与判别提供了量化分析工具,为深化煤炭产能过剩治理提供了决策依据。

Factors affecting economics of clean energy transmission channel in Southeast Asia

This paper addresses the issues regarding the economics of clean energy transmission channels in Southeast Asia.The research developed an improved comprehensive model for the generation and transmission planning considering variable renewable energy characteristics,and it simulated the hourly resolution operation condition of a cross-regional interconnection grid of Southeast Asia,China,and South Asia.Additionally,we conducted a sensitivity analysis,and the assessment of the channels’economics covered a variety of factors such as clean energy penetration,CO_(2),and pollutant reduction.Conclusions are drawn regarding the influence of different parameters and conditions on the economics of the transmission channel.Subsequently,several recommendations were proposed based on these analyses,which could support the development of the scheme of Southeast Asia power grid and the interconnection of the Belt and Road initiative.

Industrial Policy,Product Switching,and Export Performance

Industrial policy can promote economic growth and industrial upgrading by encouraging enterprises to adopt product switching.By utilizing comprehensive industrial policies and customs trade databases from 2000 to 2015,this paper found that firms with product ranges within policy-supported areas were more active in product switching.Among all the enterprises that adopted the product switching,those with nonmain products in policy-supported areas were more inclined to adjust their main product.They tended to transform nonmain product to main product as opposed to introducing new main product in order to effectively leverage their export experience and established technology.Whereas,for enterprises whose main product was within the policy-supported areas,their tendency to switch products significantly decreased.Mechanism analysis suggested that policy support,by alleviating industry distress and mitigating excessive market competition,encouraged firms to switch products to areas with policy backing.Moreover,we estimated trade performance after product switching from the perspective of product unit price and export product quality.We found that for firms whose main product was in policy-supported areas,such switching was more likely to result in“low price,high quality”exports,whereas for firms with nonmain products in supported areas,such switching was more likely to lead to“high price,low quality”exports,which indicates that firms switching to policy-supported areas need to continuously develop their core competencies and operate effectively to improve their production performance.

Quality of Life and Relative Household Energy Consumption in China

Increasing household energy consumption, mainly due to consumption upgrading, will create tough challenges for China if that country is to achieve peak carbon emissions in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060. However, this critical issue has not been explored comprehensively in the literature. Using China Family Panel Studies data and the distribution dynamics approach, this article is the first study to examine the relationship between quality of life (QOL) (proxied by consumption upgrading) and relative household energy consumption (RHEC). The results show that convergence clubs exist in all QOL groups for the RHEC, but they are more evident in the groups with lower middle and low QOL. This is encouraging because they suggest that an improvement in QOL does not necessarily lead to a higher level of energy consumption. The dataset was then divided into rural-urban and regional subgroups to further explore the impacts of these different characteristics on energy consumption. Significant disparities are found among the same QOL groups between urban and rural households and among different regions. The results derived from this study lead to pragmatic policy suggestions in areas including energy saving, emissions reduction, and particularly alleviation of inequality.

Are China＇s Exports Crowding Out or Being Crowded Out？ Evidence from Japan＇s Imports

Previous studies have investigated whether Chinese exports have crowaea oul mose from other countries. However, what has yet to be considered is the evidence based on different quality varieties. Using the most detailed Harmonized System 9-digit product- level data, the present paper provides evidence of crowding-out and crowded-out effects across different product quality segments and across manufacturing sectors by quality segments. The empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the crowding-out effects of Chinese exports have been greatest at the lower end of the quality spectrum but less significant at the higher quality spectrum. Moreover, since 2007, China＇s own exports of lower quality manufactured goods have been increasingly crowded out. The key policy implication is that China＇s export path is in line with that taken by other Asian economies in previous decades; the crowded-out effect could achieve win-win outcomes for countries involved; and lower income countries would do well to be open to receive those relocated low value-added industries from China. However, the relocation policy in China is best implemented gradually as climbing up the product quality ladder takes time.

Sufficient or insufficient: Assessment of the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) of the world's major greenhouse gas emitters

The recent Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has resulted in the submission of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of 190 countries. This study aims to provide an analysis of the ambitiousness and fairness of the mitigation components of the INDCs submitted by various parties. We use a unified framework to assess 23 INDCs that cover 50 countries, including European Union (EU)-28 countries as parties to the Convention, which represent 87.45% of the global greenhouse gas emissions in 2012. First, we transform initial INDC files into reported reduction targets. Second, we create four schemes and six scenarios to determine the required reduction effort, which considers each nation's reduction responsibility, capacity, and potential, thereby reflecting their historical and current development status. Finally, we combine the reported reduction target and the required reduction effort to assess INDCs. Evaluation results of the 23 emitters indicate that 2 emitters (i.e., EU and Brazil) are rated as "sufficient," 7 emitters (e.g., China, the United States, and Canada) are rated as "moderate," and 14 emitters (e.g., India, Russia, and Japan) are rated as "insufficient." Most pledges exhibit a considerable distance from representing a fair contribution.

Policy entry points forfacilitating a transition towards alow-carbonelectricityfuture

This study extends the ambit of the debate on electricity transitionby specifically identifying possible policy entry points through which transformative and enduring changes can be made in the electricity and socio-economic systems to facilitate the transition process.Guided by the"essence"of the multi-level perspective-a prominent framework for the study of energy transition,four such entry points have been identified:1)destabilising the dominant,fossil fuel-based electricity regime to create room for renewable technologies tobreak through;2)reconfiguring the electricity regime,which encompasses technology,short-term operational practices and long-term planning processes,to improve flexibility for accommodating large outputs from variable renewable sources whilst maintaining supply security;3)addressing the impactofcoal power phase-outon coal mining regions in terms of economic development and jobs;and 4)facilitating a shift in transition governance towards a learning-based,reflexive process.Specific areas for policy interventions within each of these entry points have also been discussed in the paper.