Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers

In this paper,we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV and AIDS cases.A simple model for HIV and AIDS that incorporates migration and addresses its contributions to the spread of HIV and AIDS cases was constructed.The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia.We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulation method to estimate uncertainty in all the unknown parameters incorporated in our proposed model.Among the migrant population,1.5572e-01 were susceptible to HIV transmission,which constituted 67,801 migrants.A proportion of migrants,6.3773e-04,were estimated to be HIV infected,constituting 278 migrants.There were 72(per 10,000)migrants estimated to have had AIDS,representing a proportion of 1.6611e-08.The result suggests that the disease-free steady state was unstable since the estimated basic reproduction number R0 was 2.0906 and 2.3322 for the models without and with migration,respectively.This is not a good indicator from the public health point of view,as the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium.The advantage of introduction of migration to the simple model validated the true R0 and the transmission rate b associated with HIV and AIDS epidemic disease in Malaysia.It also indicates an approximately 12 percentage points increase in the rate of HIV infection with migration.

Assessing stakeholders'perceptions and values towards social-ecological systems using participatory methods

Introduction:Many conservation initiatives for managing social-ecological landscapes factor in the best available biophysical information.However,insufficient consideration of social aspects can render such initiatives ineffective.By incorporating stakeholders'perceptions and values,and by involving stakeholders(transparently)in decision-making processes,conservation plans and efforts can better achieve desired goals and targets.Results:In this paper,we present and analyze three case studies within different ecological and land use contexts.Each case study uses different participatory approaches to elicit stakeholders'perceptions and values,while seeking to involve stakeholders in the decision-making process.The case studies are the following:(1)participatory scenario planning for a protected area in Doñana coastal wetland in Southwestern Spain;(2)assessment of ecosystem services trade-offs and social responses on rewards for agro-biodiversity in the rubber agroforest landscape in Jambi,Indonesia;and(3)socio-cultural evaluation,through visual stimuli,of ecosystem services provided by transhumance cultural landscapes in Central Spain.We discuss how stakeholders perceive and value their environments and to what extent participatory approaches are useful for capturing information relating to land use and ecological processes.Conclusions:Social-ecological systems are inherently complex,having a variety of interacting actors with different types of ecological knowledge,interests,and values.Different participatory tools or approaches are appropriate for various and specific contexts and objectives.Determining and integrating the various types of knowledge and values of different actors can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of social-ecological systems.