Introduction of CMIP5 Experiments Carried out with the Climate System Models of Beijing Climate Center

The climate system models from Beijing Climate Center, BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1-M, are used to carry out most of the CMIP5 experiments. This study gives a general introduction of these two models, and provides main information on the experiments including the experiment purpose, design, and the external forcings. The transient climate responses to the CO2 concentration increase at 1% per year are presented in the simulation of the two models. The BCC_CSM1.1-M result is closer to the CMIP5 multiple models ensemble. The two models perform well in simulating the historical evolution of the surface air temperature, globally and averaged for China. Both models overestimate the global warming and underestimate the warming over China in the 20th century. With higher horizontal resolution, the BCC_CSM1.1-M has a better capability in reproducing the annual evolution of surface air temperature over China.

Effect of different cold air intensities and their lagged effects on outpatient visits for respiratory illnesses in Handan in different seasons

本文利用2016年到2019年邯郸市气象要素和呼吸系统疾病门诊数据,分析了不同季节不同强度的冷空气过程及其对呼吸系统疾病的影响,结果显示:尽管呼吸系统疾病在冬季高发,夏季最低,但冷空气对呼吸系统疾病的影响在夏,春季最大,就诊人数分别在冷空气日后两天和五天增加18.4%和13.3%,而冬季就诊人数在冷空气日后三天仅增加3.2%.冷空气对疾病影响的滞后时间在夏,秋和冬季随冷空气强度的增加而减少,而春季的滞后时间总是很长.这些发现可为科学应对气候异常导致的人群健康风险提供针对性依据.

How Well does BCC_CSM1.1 Reproduce the 20th Century Climate Change over China?

The historical simulation of phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) experiments performed by the Beijing Climate Center climate system model(BCC_CSM1.1) is evaluated regarding the time evolutions of the global and China mean surface air temperature(SAT) and surface climate change over China in recent decades.BCC_CSM1.1 has better capability at reproducing the time evolutions of the global and China mean SAT than BCC_CSM1.0.By the year 2005,the BCC_CSM1.1 model simulates a warming amplitude of approximately 1℃ in China over the 1961-1990 mean,which is consistent with observation.The distributions of the warming trend over China in the four seasons during 1958-2004 are basically reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1,with the warmest occurring in winter.Although the cooling signal of Southwest China in spring is partly reproduced by BCC_CSM1.1,the cooling trend over central eastern China in summer is omitted by the model.For the precipitation change,BCC_CSM1.1 has good performance in spring,with drought in Southeast China.After removing the linear trend,the interannual correlation map between the model and the observation shows that the model has better capability at reproducing the summer SAT over China and spring precipitation over Southeast China.

Diurnal Variations of Summer Precipitation in the Beijing Area and the Possible Effect of Topography and Urbanization

The present study examined the diurnal variations of summer precipitation in the Beijing area by usingsubdaily precipitation and wind observations. A combined effect of topography and urbanization on thecharacteristics of diurnal variations was suggested. It was shown that stations located in the plain areaexhibited typical night rain peaks, whereas those in the mountainous area exhibited clear afternoon peaks ofprecipitation diurnal variations. The precipitation peaks were associated with wind fields around the Beijingarea, which were found to be highly modulated by mountain-valley circulation and urban-country circulation.The lower-tropospheric wind exhibited a clear diurnal shift in its direction from north at 0800 LST to southat 2000 LST, which reflected mountain-valley circulation. The transitions from valley to mountain windand the opposite generally happened after sunset and sunrise, respectively, and both occurred earlier for thestations located closer to mountains. By comparing the diurnal variations of precipitation at stations in anortheast suburb, an urban area, and a southwest suburb, it was revealed that the northeast suburb grouphad the highest normalized rainfall frequency, but the southwest group had the lowest from late afternoon tolate evening. On the contrary, in the early morning from about 0200 to 1000 LST, the southwest group andurban group had the highest normalized rainfall frequency. This pattern might originate from the combinedeffects of mountain-valley topography and urbanization.

Simulating Urban Flow and Dispersion in Beijing by Coupling a CFD Model with the WRF Model

The airflow and dispersion of a pollutant in a complex urban area of Beijing, China, were numerically examined by coupling a Computational Fluid Dynamics （CFD） model with a mesoscale weather model. The models used were Open Source Field Operation and Manipulation （OpenFOAM） software package and Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model. OpenFOAM was firstly validated against wind-tunnel experiment data. Then, the WRF model was integrated for 42 h starting from 0800 LST 08 September 2009, and the coupled model was used to compute the flow fields at 1000 LST and 1400 LST 09 September 2009. During the WRF-simulated period, a high pressure system was dominant over the Beijing area. The WRF-simulated local circulations were characterized by mountain valley winds, which matched well with observations. Results from the coupled model simulation demonstrated that the airflows around actual buildings were quite different from the ambient wind on the boundary provided by the WRF model, and the pollutant dispersion pattern was complicated under the influence of buildings. A higher concentration level of the pollutant near the surface was found in both the step-down and step-up notches, but the reason for this higher level in each configurations was different： in the former, it was caused by weaker vertical flow, while in the latter it was caused by a downward-shifted vortex. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the coupled WRF-OpenFOAM model is an important tool that can be used for studying and predicting urban flow and dispersions in densely built-up areas.

Asymmetry of Surface Climate Change under RCP2.6 Projections from the CMIP5 Models

The multi-model ensemble （MME） of 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five （CMIP5） was used to analyze surface climate change in the 21st century under the representative con- centration pathway RCP2.6, to reflect emission mitigation efforts. The maximum increase of surface air temperature （SAT） is 1.86℃ relative to the pre-industrial level, achieving the target to limit the global warming to 2℃. Associated with the ＂increase-peak-decline＂ greenhouse gases （GHGs） concentration path- way of RCP2.6, the global mean SAT of MME shows opposite trends during two time periods： warming during 2006-55 and cooling during 2056-2100. Our results indicate that spatial distribution of the linear trend of SAT during the warming period exhibited asymmetrical features compared to that during the cool- ing period. The warming during 2006-55 is distributed globally, while the cooling during 2056-2100 mainly occurred in the NH, the South Indian Ocean, and the tropical South Atlantic Ocean. Different dominant roles of heat flux in the two time periods partly explain the asymmetry. During the warming period, the latent heat flux and shortwave radiation both play major roles in heating the surface air. During the cooling period, the increase of net longwave radiation partly explains the cooling in the tropics and subtropics, which is associated with the decrease of total cloud amount. The decrease of the shortwave radiation accounts for the prominent cooling in the high latitudes of the NH. The surface sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and shortwave radiation collectively contribute to the especial warming phenomenon in the high-latitude of the SH during the cooling period.

An Observational Study on the Local Climate Effect of the Shangyi Wind Farm in Hebei Province

Zhangjiakou is an important wind power base in Hebei Province,China.The impact of its wind farms on the local climate is controversial.Based on long-term meteorological data from 1981 to 2018,we investigated the effects of the Shangyi Wind Farm(SWF)in Zhangjiakou on air temperature,wind speed,relative humidity,and precipitation using the anomaly or ratio method between the impacted weather station and the non-impacted background weather station.The influence of the SWF on land surface temperature(LST)and evapotranspiration(ET)using MODIS satellite data from 2003 to 2018 was also explored.The results showed that the SWF had an atmospheric warming effect at night especially in summer and autumn(up to 0.95℃).The daytime air temperature changes were marginal,and their signs were varying depending on the season.The annual mean wind speed decreased by 6%,mainly noted in spring and winter(up to 14%).The precipitation and relative humidity were not affected by the SWF.There was no increase in LST in the SWF perhaps due to the increased vegetation coverage unrelated to the wind farms,which canceled out the wind farm-induced land surface warming and also resulted in an increase in ET.The results showed that the impact of wind farms on the local climate was significant,while their impact on the regional climate was slight.

Impact of Urban 3D Morphology on Particulate Matter 2.5(PM2.5) Concentrations:Case Study of Beijing, China

Urban particulate matter 2.5(PM2.5)pollution and public health are closely related,and concerns regarding PM2.5 are widespread.Of the underlying factors,the urban morphology is the most manageable.Therefore,investigations of the impact of urban three-dimensional(3D)morphology on PM2.5 concentration have important scientific significance.In this paper,39 PM2.5 monitoring sites of Beijing in China were selected with PM2.5 automatic monitoring data that were collected in 2013.This data set was used to analyze the impacts of the meteorological condition and public transportation on PM2.5 concentrations.Based on the elimination of the meteorological conditions and public transportation factors,the relationships between urban 3D morphology and PM2.5 concentrations are highlighted.Ten urban 3D morphology indices were established to explore the spatial-temporal correlations between the indices and PM2.5 concentrations and analyze the impact of urban 3D morphology on the PM2.5 concentrations.Results demonstrated that road length density(RLD),road area density(RAD),construction area density(CAD),construction height density(CHD),construction volume density(CVD),construction otherness(CO),and vegetation area density(VAD)have positive impacts on the PM2.5 concentrations,whereas water area density(WAD),water fragmentation(WF),and vegetation fragmentation(VF)(except for the 500 m buffer)have negative impacts on the PM2.5 concentrations.Moreover,the correlations between the morphology indices and PM2.5 concentrations varied with the buffer scale.The findings could lay a foundation for the high-precision spatial-temporal modelling of PM2.5 concentrations and the scientific planning of urban 3D spaces by authorities responsible for controlling PM2.5 concentrations.

A climatic environmental performance assessment method for ecological city construction:Application to Beijing Yanqi Lake

In contrast to the input perspective for evaluating planning metrics, this research takes the climatic environmental output effects as the starting point for assessing ecological city construction. Based on approaches such as observation data analysis, meteorological model simulation, and remote sensing, a set of climatic environmental performance assessment methods is developed and established. These methods mainly focus on surface ventilation assessment and urban thermal environment assessment. With the Yanqi Lake ecological development demonstration area located in Huairou district, Beijing as an example, the assessment of the local climatic environment before and after the construction are conducted, and relevant policy suggestions for urban planning and construction are presented. The results show that after development, the ventilation capacity will decrease overall and the ventilation potential index will decrease from 0.53 to 0.44. While this is not a large reduction, and is still at a favorable level, the ventilation potential in some local areas will markedly decrease. Furthermore, the thermal environment will become poorer to some extent; the urban heat island(UHI) area and intensity will increase compared with the current situation;continuous heat islands may occur in local areas; the UHI potential index of the core area will rise from 0.0878 to 0.1217(still a favorable level).Therefore, urban surfaces should be carefully developed and arranged during planning. It is suggested that the negative impacts of large areas of urban construction on the local climatic environment in the Yanqi Lake could be mitigated by 1) strengthening the airflow by introducing fresh,cold, northwesterly air via constructed ventilation corridors, 2) increasing the number of ecological cold sources, particularly for water bodies and green belts to prevent the UHI in the southern region of Yanqi Lake from becoming linked with each other, and 3) considering a pre-program before sub-domain and building planning to obtain optimum building locations. Different construction standards should be developed for different ventilation potential and UHI intensity levels. For strong heat island areas, land areas should be reserved to serve as cold sources.

Basic Features of Climate Change in North China during 1961-2010

The spatial and temporal variations of some important near-surface climate parameters and extreme climate events in North China during 1961-2010 are analyzed by using 94 meteorological stations' data in the study area. Results show that the annual mean surface air temperature in North China increased at the rate of 0.36°C per decade, higher than the national average in the same period. Increasing was particularly significant since the mid-1980s, with maximum increase in the middle and northeastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Increasing rate of the annual mean minimum temperature is much higher than that of the maximum temperature, which results in the decrease of the annual mean diurnal temperature range. Noticeable decrease is also observed in the frequency of cold wave. Annual precipitation shows a slight decreasing trend, with more pronounced decrease in southern Shanxi and eastern Hebei provinces, which is mainly represented as decreasing in contribution rates of rainstorm and heavy storm in flood-season (May to September). During 1961-2010, North China is characterized by a noticeable reduction in annual extreme precipitation, and an increase in high-temperature days over most parts, as well as more frequent droughts. There are remarkable reductions in annual sunshine duration and mean wind speed, associated with the most significant reduction of mean wind speed in mid- western and eastern parts of Inner Mongolia. Meanwhile, North China has experienced a noticeable decrease/increase in annual mean sanddust/haze days during the study period. However, there is no significant trend in fog days, except a pronounced decrease since the 1990s.

Impact of meteorological conditions and PM2.5 on the onset of acute aortic dissection in monsoonal climate

ObjectiveTo 在 monsoonal climate.MethodsA 在尖锐大动脉的解剖的发作上调查气象学的条件和下午2.5的影响线性回归分析在 monsoonal 气候被执行为气象学的因素的影响上的四年的经期的流行病学的调查(最小的温度，吝啬的温度，最大的温度，平均每日的表面温度，天温度范围，相对湿度，吝啬的风速度，和气压)并且下午2.5 co 气象学的变量和首相2.5集中从北京地区性的气候中心和人们中华民国的环境保护的部在一个每日的基础上被检索网站，并且尖锐大动脉的解剖的每日的发生在紧急情况和北京 Anzhen Hospital.ResultsDuring 的批评照顾中心从临床的数据分析和报导系统被检索学习时期(从2011年1月到2014年12月)， 1164 个病人作为 h 被识别分别地，在春天和秋天的相应发生是 0.96 和 1.00 它比那显著地高在夏天和冬季。在一天内的尖锐大动脉的解剖的发生能被预言由日报用下列线性多重回归的温度范围(数据终端就绪) 当模特儿：尖锐大动脉的解剖 = 的发生 0.543 + 0.025 mstring 腱首先与开的腱 str 近似地被收获？？

Observational Subseasonal Variability of the PM_(2.5) Concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area during the January 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming

It is still not well understood if subseasonal variability of the local PM_(2.5) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region is affected by the stratospheric state.Using PM_(2.5) observations and the ERA5 reanalysis,the evolution of the air quality in BTH during the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming(SSW)is explored.The subseasonal variability of the PM_(2.5) concentration after the SSW onset is evidently enhanced.Stratospheric circumpolar easterly anomalies lasted for 53 days during the January-February 2021 SSW with two evident stratospheric pulses arriving at the ground.During the tropospheric wave weakening period and the intermittent period of dormant stratospheric pulses,the East Asian winter monsoon weakened,anomalous temperature inversion developed in the lower troposphere,anomalous surface southerlies prevailed,atmospheric moisture increased,and the boundary layer top height lowered,all of which favor the accumulation of pollutant particulates,leading to two periods of pollution processes in the BTH region.In the phase of strengthened East Asian winter monsoon around the very beginning of the SSW and another two periods when stratospheric pulses had reached the near surface,opposite-signed circulation patterns and meteorological conditions were observed,which helped to dilute and diffuse air pollutants in the BTH region.As a result,the air quality was excellent during the two periods when the stratospheric pulse had reached the near surface.The increased subseasonal variation of the regional pollutant particulates after the SSW onset highlights the important role of the stratosphere in the regional environment and provides implications for the environmental prediction.

Increased summer electric power demand in Beijing driven by preceding spring tropical North Atlantic warming

本文利用北京市电力负荷资料,北京市站点观测温度资料,CN05.1温度资料,ERA5大气再分析资料及ERSST v3b海表温度资料,发现3-4月副热带北大西洋海温异常和北京市夏季电力呈很好的正相关关系,并揭示了副热带北大西洋海温异常影响北京市夏季电力的可能物理机制.春季副热带北大西洋海温异常偏暖,热带中太平洋出现东风异常并持续至夏季,太平洋信风增强,热带中东太平洋冷水上翻增强,通过Bjerkness正反馈机制激发了La Nina事件.La Nina事件时,西北太平洋反气旋环流异常,将低纬度暖湿气流输送至北京地区,引起北京市夏季温度增高,电力负荷需求增加.反之亦然.研究结果可为北京市夏季电力负荷需求的季节预测提供新的科学依据和线索.

The Concurrent Record-breaking Rainfall over Northwest India and North China in September 2021

Extremely heavy rainfall occurred over both Northwest India and North China in September 2021.The precipitation anomalies were 4.1 and 6.2 times interannual standard deviation over the two regions,respectively,and broke the record since the observational data were available,i.e.,1901 for India and 1951 for China.In this month,the Asian uppertropospheric westerly jet was greatly displaced poleward over West Asia,and correspondingly,an anomalous cyclone appeared over India.The anomalous cyclone transported abundant water vapor into Northwest India,leading to the heavy rainfall there.In addition,the Silk Road pattern,a teleconnection pattern of upper-level meridional wind over the Eurasian continent and fueled by the heavy rainfall in Northwest India,contributed to the heavy rainfall in North China.Our study emphasizes the roles of atmospheric teleconnection patterns in concurrent rainfall extremes in the two regions far away from each other,and the occurrence of rainfall extremes during the post-or pre-monsoon period in the northern margins of monsoon regions.

Linkage of the Decadal Variability of Extreme Summer Heat in North China with the IPOD since 1981

Extreme summer heat can have serious socioeconomic impacts in North China.Here,we explore the decadal variability of the number of extreme heat days in early-to-mid summer(June and July)and a related potential mechanism consistent with the major seasonal occurrence period of extreme heat events in North China(NCSH).Observational analyses show significant decadal variability in NCSH for 1981–2021,potentially linked to the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Northwest Pacific Ocean dipole(IPOD)in early-to-mid summer.Dynamic diagnostic analysis and the linear baroclinic model(LBM)show that the positive IPOD in early-to-mid summer can excite upward vertical wind anomalies in the South China-East China Sea region,shifting the position of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)to the east or weakening the degree of its control of the South China-East China Sea region,thus generating a positive geopotential height quadrupole(EAWPQ)pattern in the East Asia-Northwest Pacific region.Subsequently,the EAWPQ can cause air compression(expansion)over North China by regulating the tropospheric thickness anomalies in North China,thus increasing(decreasing)NCSH.Finally,an empirical model that incorporates the linear trend can better simulate the decadal NCSH compared to an empirical model based solely on the IPOD index,suggesting that the decadal variability of NCSH may be a combined contribution of the decadal IPOD and external linear forcing.

The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model, Spectral Version 2: FGOALS-s2

The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 （FGOALS-s2） was used to simulate realistic climates and to study anthropogenic influences on climate change. Specifically, the FGOALS-s2 was integrated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） to conduct co- ordinated experiments that will provide valuable scientific information to climate research communities. The performances of FGOALS-s2 were assessed in simulating major climate phenomena, and documented both the strengths and weaknesses of the model. The results indicate that FGOALS-s2 successfully overcomes climate drift, and realistically models global and regional climate characteristics, including SST, precipita- tion, and atmospheric circulation. In particular, the model accurately captures annual and semi-annual SST cycles in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the main characteristic features of the Asian summer monsoon, which include a low-level southwestern jet and five monsoon rainfall centers. The simulated climate variabil- ity was further examined in terms of teleconnections, leading modes of global SST （namely, ENSO）, Pacific Decadal Oscillations （PDO）, and changes in 19th-20th century climate. The analysis demonstrates that FGOALS-s2 realistically simulates extra-tropical teleconnection patterns of large-scale climate, and irregu- lar ENSO periods. The model gives fairly reasonable reconstructions of spatial patterns of PDO and global monsoon changes in the 20th century. However, because the indirect effects of aerosols are not included in the model, the simulated global temperature change during the period 1850 2005 is greater than the observed warming, by 0.6℃. Some other shortcomings of the model are also noted.

An Introduction to the Coupled Model FGOALS1.1-s and Its Performance in East Asia

The spectral version 1.1 of the Flexible Global Ocean–atmosphere–land System （FGOALS1.1-s） model was developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophys- ical Fluid Dynamics at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （LASG/IAP）. This paper reports the major modifications to the physical parameterization package in its atmospheric component, including the radiation scheme, convection scheme, and cloud scheme. Furthermore, the simulation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） by FGOALS1.1-s is examined, both in terms of climatological mean state and interannual variability. The results indicate that FGOALS1.1-s exhibits significant improvements in the simulation of the balance of energy at the top of the atmosphere： the net radiative energy flux at the top was 0.003 W m-2 in the 40 years fully coupled integration. The distribution of simulated sea surface temperature was also quite reasonable, without obvious climate drift. FGOALS1.1-s is also capable of capturing the major features of the climatological mean state of the EASM： major rainfall maximum centers, the annual cycle of precipitation, and the lower-level monsoon circulation flow were highly consistent with observations in the EASM region. Regarding interannual variability, simulation of the EASM leading patterns and their relationship with sea surface temperature was examined. The results show that FGOALS1.1-s can reproduce the first leading pattern of the EASM and its close relationship with the decaying phase of the ENSO. However, the model lacked the ability to capture either the second major mode of the EASM or its relationship with the developing phase of the ENSO.

Aerosol Optical Properties Affected by a Strong Dust Storm over Central and Northern China

Aerosol observational data at 8 ground-based observation sites in the Chinese Sun Hazemeter Network （CSHNET） were analyzed to characterize the optical properties of aerosol particles during the strong dust storm of 16-21 April 2005. The observational aerosol optical depth （AOD） increased significantly during this dust storm at sites in Beijing city （86%）, Beijing forest （84%）, Xianghe （13%）, Shapotou （27%）, Shenyang （47%）, Shanghai （23%）, and Jiaozhou Bay （24%）. The API （air pollution index） in Beijing and Tianjin also had a similar rise during the dust storm, while the Angstrhm exponent （a） declined evidently at sites in Beijing city （21%）, Beijing forest （39%）, Xianghe （19%）, Ordos （77%）, Shapotou （50%）, Shanghai （12%）, and Jiaozhou Bay （21%）, respectively. Furthermore, The observational AOD and a demonstrated contrary trends during M1 storm stages （pre-dust storm, dust storm, and post-dust storm）, with the AOD indicating an obvious ＂Valley Peak-Valley＂ pattern of variation, while a demonstrated a ＂Peak-Valley- Peak＂ pattern. In addition, the dust module in a regional climate model （RegCM3） simulated the dust storm occurrence and track accurately and RegCM3 was able to basically simulate the trends in AOD. The simulation results for the North China stations were the best, and the simulation for dust-source stations was on the high side, while the simulation was on the low side for coastal sites.

An Application of the RAMS/FLUENT System on the Multi-Scale Numerical Simulation of the Urban Surface Layer—A Preliminary Study

地区性的大气的建模系统(公羊) 和计算液体动力学(CFD ) 作为流畅知道的代码组合地在城市的表面层(USL ) 的多尺度的数字模拟被使用。公羊并且流畅当一个多尺度的数字建模系统， RAMS 在模仿了数据以一个离线的方法为流畅的模拟被送到计算模型，被联合。数字模拟被执行介绍并且 preliminarily 验证多尺度的建模系统的能力，并且结果证明当模特儿的系统罐头相当从城市的规模在一个城市的区域在气象要素上提供信息给城市块规模，特别在 USL 以内的狂暴的流动的细节。

Improvement of 6–15 Day Precipitation Forecasts Using a Time-Lagged Ensemble Method

A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6-15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model,version 2.0.1.The approach averages the deterministic predictions of precipitation from the most recent model run and from earlier runs,all at the same forecast valid time.This lagged average forecast （LAF） method assigns equal weight to each ensemble member and produces a forecast by taking the ensemble mean.Our analyses of the Equitable Threat Score,the Hanssen and Kuipers Score,and the frequency bias indicate that the LAF using five members at time-lagged intervals of 6 h improves 6-15 day forecasts of precipitation frequency above 1 mm d-1 and 5 mm d-1 in many regions of China,and is more effective than the LAF method with selection of the time-lagged interval of 12 or 24 h between ensemble members.In particular,significant improvements are seen over regions where the frequencies of rainfall days are higher than about 40％-50％ in the summer season; these regions include northeastern and central to southern China,and the southeastem Tibetan Plateau.