Dynamic evolution and trend prediction of multi-scale green innovation in China

Numerous studies deal with spatial analysis of green innovation(GI).However,researchers have paid limited attention to analyzing the multi-scale evolution patterns and predicting trends of GI in China.This paper seeks to address this research gap by examining the multi-scale distribution and evolutionary characteristics of GI activities based on the data from 337 cities in China during 2000-2019.We used scale variance and the two-stage nested Theil decomposition method to examine the spatial distribution and inequalities of GI in China at multiple scales,including regional,provincial,and prefectural.Additionally,we utilized the Markov chain and spatial Markov chain to explore the dynamic evolution of GI in China and predict its long-term development.The findings indicate that GI in China has a multi-scale effect and is highly sensitive to changes in spatial scale,with significant spatial differences of GI decreasing in each scale.Furthermore,the spatiotemporal evolution of GI is influenced by both geospatial patterns and spatial scales,exhibiting the“club convergence”effect and a tendency to transfer to higher levels of proximity.This effect is more pronounced on a larger scale,but it is increasingly challenging to transfer to higher levels.The study also indicates a steady and sustained growth of GI in China,which concentrates on higher levels over time.These results contribute to a more precise understanding of the scale at which GI develops and provide a scientific basis and policy suggestions for optimizing the spatial structure of GI and promoting its development in China.

中国城市知识创新职能空间分异及其影响因素

Knowledge innovation is a key component of urban innovation function and an important basis for modern urban development. Combining the multidisciplinary research of knowledge innovation, this paper constructs a measurement framework of urban knowledge innovation function from the perspective of urban geography and analyzes its spatial pattern and influencing factors. The conclusions are as follows:(1) The function of urban knowledge innovation refers to the tasks and roles it undertakes in the process of knowledge creation, knowledge dissemination and knowledge application, which is based on the internal knowledge stock and external practice conditions to meet the needs of human survival and development in the new era. The measurement dimensions include functional scale, functional intensity, functional scale, and functional vitality.(2) The development level of knowledge innovation functions in Chinese cities is uneven, and the cities with outstanding knowledge innovation functions are mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas and a few developed areas in the central and western regions, forming the diamond-shaped knowledge innovation structure with the Beijing-Tianjin, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Shaanxi-Chengdu-Chongqing as the four vertices and central Wuhan and Hefei as the center. According to the Jenks natural breakpoint method, it is divided into national-level, regional-level, local-level and knowledge-innovative development cities.(3) The spatial differentiation characteristics of urban knowledge innovation function are simultaneously affected by various natural and human factors. Among them, economic environment, opening environment, and cultural environment have the strongest interactive explanatory power with other factors, and are the dominant factors affecting the city’s knowledge innovation function. In the future, China should fully considers the status and characteristics of the city’s own knowledge economy development with corresponding policies and measures suitable for the development of the city’s knowledge economy, and strengthen the dominant position of human and social factors in the constructing the city’s knowledge innovation function.

基于创新的城市化——中国270个地级及以上城市数据的实证分析（英文）

With the rapid development of knowledge economy, a number of important shifts are emerging in urbanization pattern across the world. Traditional urbanization theory has become hard to interpret these changes on a global scale, and 'innovation' is a core concept to explain the new changes of the urbanization dynamics. As one of the important contents of urban geography, urbanization dynamic needs to turn from the general population flows between rural and urban areas into emphasizing high skilled migrants flow among cities and regions research. Against this background, we propose a conception of innovation-based urbanization. Using this concept, this study analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of high skilled migrants and cultural diversity on urban innovation in China, based on the data of the sixth census of 270 cities at the prefecture level or above in China. This study measures the extent to which highly skilled migrants and cultural diversity increase urban innovation, by using spatial Durbin method to construct urban innovation regression model, to support the concept of innovation-based urbanization. The result shows that: first of all, the concept of innovation-based urbanization conforms to the development of knowledge economy, which emphasizes the migration process of highly skilled labor to cities. It helps to promote the changes in urban functions and landscapes and the expansion of urban knowledge activities, which undelines new dynamics of urban development, innovative landscape. Secondly, innovation urbanization based on highly skilled migrants flow is an important driving force for the development of Chinese cities, especially for eastern coastal cities and capital cities. Thirdly, the scale of highly skilled migrants flow and the level of urban cultural diversity in China both have been demonstrated of having positive effect on urban innovation output. With other conditions unchanged, a 10% increase in the number of urban highly skilled migrants and urban cultural diversity will directly result in an increase of 3% and 2% in urban innovation output respectively. This research has deepened our understanding and awareness of the openness and dynamics of the regional innovation system, and it has also provided an important theoretical basis for the formulation of urbanization and urban development policy under knowledge economy.