The remote forcing from land surface changes in the Sahara is hypothesized to play a pivotal role in modulating the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)through ocean-atmospheric teleconnections.This modula...The remote forcing from land surface changes in the Sahara is hypothesized to play a pivotal role in modulating the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)through ocean-atmospheric teleconnections.This modulation has far-reaching consequences,particularly in facilitating societal shifts documented in northern China.Here,we present a well-dated lake-level record from the Daihai Lake Basin in northern China,providing quantitative assessments of Holocene monsoonal precipitation and the consequent migrations of the northern boundary of the EASM.Our reconstruction,informed by a water-and-energy balance model,indicates that annual precipitation reached700 mm during 8–5 ka,followed by a rapid decline to tween 5 and 4 ka.This shift coherently aligns with a signi550 mm be-ficant300 km northwestward movement of the EASM northern boundary during the Middle Holocene(MH),in contrast to its current position.Our findings underscore that these changes cannot be entirely attributed to orbital forcing,as corroborated by simulation tests.Climate model simulations deployed in our study suggest that the presence of the Green Sahara during the MH significantly strengthened the EASM and led to a northward shift of the monsoon rainfall belt.Conversely,the Sahara’s reversion to a desert landscape in the late Holocene was accompanied by a corresponding southward retraction of monsoon influence.These dramatic hydroclimate changes during5–4 ka likely triggered or at least contributed to a shift in Neolithic cultures and societal transformation in northern China.With decreasing agricultural productivity,communities transitioned from millet farming to a mixed rainfed agriculture and animal husbandry system.Thus,our findings elucidate not only the variability of the EASM but also the profound implications of a remote forcing,such as surface transformations of the Sahara,on climatic changes and cultural evolution in northern China.展开更多
Inappropriate management of municipal solid waste dumpsites is a major cause of groundwater contamination in developing countries,but the extent of the problem is not known.This study investigated groundwater quality ...Inappropriate management of municipal solid waste dumpsites is a major cause of groundwater contamination in developing countries,but the extent of the problem is not known.This study investigated groundwater quality in the vicinity of Olusosun dumpsite in Lagos,Nigeria,the most populous city in sub-Saharan Africa.During 2020,monthly groundwater samples were collected in 17 wells and boreholes used as drinking water sources,and analysed for 20 physico-chemical parameters.Differences between sites and seasons were statistically assessed,together with changes in water quality index(WQI).The results indicated that heavy metals(Pb^(2+),Ni^(+),Mn^(2+),Fe^(2+),Cr^(6+)),cations(Ca^(2+),Mg^(2+),K^(+)),total hardness and pH were the main parameters impairing water quality.Drinking water quality standards from both the World Health Organization and Nigeria government were exceeded more often in the wet season than in the dry season.Some groundwater properties were negatively correlated with distance to dumpsite(e.g.,Fe^(2+),Pb^(2+),NO_(3)^(−)).Significant differences between sites were identified,but with no clear spatial trend.WQI varied from excellent(6%-24%of the sites over the study period)to unsuitable for drinking water purposes(12%-18%),with good quality prevailing at most sites(35%-47%).Although groundwater quality declined at 24%of the sites over 2020,the results indicated improvements compared with previous decades.Remediation strategies must be implemented to safeguard public health and the sustainability of water resources.展开更多
The term“Holocene temperature conundrum”refers to the inconsistencies between proxy-based reconstructions and transient model simulations,and it challenges our understanding of global temperature evolution during th...The term“Holocene temperature conundrum”refers to the inconsistencies between proxy-based reconstructions and transient model simulations,and it challenges our understanding of global temperature evolution during the Holocene.Climate reconstructions indicate a cooling trend following the Holocene Thermal Maximum,while model simulations indicate a consistent warming trend due to icesheet retreat and rising greenhouse gas concentrations.Various factors,such as seasonal biases and overlooked feedback processes,have been proposed as potential causes for this discrepancy.In this study,we examined the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the temperature anomaly patterns in East Asia during the mid-Holocene(~6 ka).By utilizing the fully coupled Earth system model EC-Earth and performing simulations with and without coupled dynamic vegetation,our objective was to isolate the influence of vegetation changes on regional temperature patterns.Our findings reveal that vegetation-climate feedback contributed to warming across most of East Asia,resulting in spatially diverse temperature changes during the mid-Holocene and significantly improved model-data agreement.These results high-light the crucial role of vegetation-climate feedback in addressing the Holocene temperature conundrum and emphasize its importance for simulating accurate climate scenarios.展开更多
In this study, a novel approach of the landslide numerical risk factor(LNRF) bivariate model was used in ensemble with linear multivariate regression(LMR) and boosted regression tree(BRT) models, coupled with radar re...In this study, a novel approach of the landslide numerical risk factor(LNRF) bivariate model was used in ensemble with linear multivariate regression(LMR) and boosted regression tree(BRT) models, coupled with radar remote sensing data and geographic information system(GIS), for landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) in the Gorganroud watershed, Iran. Fifteen topographic, hydrological, geological and environmental conditioning factors and a landslide inventory(70%, or 298 landslides) were used in mapping. Phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar data were used to extract topographic parameters. Coefficients of tolerance and variance inflation factor were used to determine the coherence among conditioning factors. Data for the landslide inventory map were obtained from various resources, such as Iranian Landslide Working Party(ILWP), Forestry, Rangeland and Watershed Organisation(FRWO), extensive field surveys, interpretation of aerial photos and satellite images, and radar data. Of the total data, 30% were used to validate LSMs, using area under the curve(AUC), frequency ratio(FR) and seed cell area index(SCAI).Normalised difference vegetation index, land use/land cover and slope degree in BRT model elevation, rainfall and distance from stream were found to be important factors and were given the highest weightage in modelling. Validation results using AUC showed that the ensemble LNRF-BRT and LNRFLMR models(AUC = 0.912(91.2%) and 0.907(90.7%), respectively) had high predictive accuracy than the LNRF model alone(AUC = 0.855(85.5%)). The FR and SCAI analyses showed that all models divided the parameter classes with high precision. Overall, our novel approach of combining multivariate and machine learning methods with bivariate models, radar remote sensing data and GIS proved to be a powerful tool for landslide susceptibility mapping.展开更多
Urban green spaces(UGS)are essential for human well-being,contributing towards quality of life and promoting social interactions and inclusion.Accessibility to recreational UGS is key to human well-being in urban area...Urban green spaces(UGS)are essential for human well-being,contributing towards quality of life and promoting social interactions and inclusion.Accessibility to recreational UGS is key to human well-being in urban areas.However,there is a lack of works focused on recreational UGS accessibility in cities from different countries,using different types of transport.In this work,we studied the accessibility to recreational UGS in Vilnius(Lithuania)and Coimbra(Portugal)through four transport modes(foot,bike,bus and car)within 5-and 10-minute distance.The results showed important differences between cities.Vilnius had higher accessibility to recreational UGS than Coimbra in all transport modes.In both cities,the accessibility was highest by car and lowest by bus.Also,the percentage of population covered by 5-and 10-minute distance UGS accessibility in Vilnius is higher than in Coimbra,despite the lower population density in Vilnius.A large number of recreational UGS,their geographic distribution,the dispersed population pattern,and the location of several urbanizations near recreational UGS increased the inhabitant’s accessibility to recreational UGS in Vilnius.The differences in accessibility between cities were mainly attributed to the large number of recreational UGS and higher road network density,cycleways and footways density,and bus lines in Vilnius,compared to Coimbra.This work identified the areas where recreational UGS accessibility is difficult in using different transport modes and need to be improved in study areas.This is essential to support urban planners and increase cities’well-being.The findings of this work will be important for the management of the studied urban areas.展开更多
Tree-ring based temperature reconstructions have successfully inferred the past inter-annual to millennium scales summer temperature variability. A clear relationship between annual and summer temperatures can provide...Tree-ring based temperature reconstructions have successfully inferred the past inter-annual to millennium scales summer temperature variability. A clear relationship between annual and summer temperatures can provide insights into tile variability of past annual mean tem- perature from the reconstructed summer temperature. However, how similar are summer and annual temperatures is to a large extent still unknown. This study aims at investigating the relationship between annual and summer temperatures at different timescales in central Sweden during the last millennium. The temperature variability in central Sweden can represent large parts of Scandinavia which has been a key region for dendroclimatological research. The observed annual and summer temperatures during 1901-2005 were firstly decomposed into different frequency bands using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, and then the scale-dependent relationship was quantified using Pearson correlation coefficients. The relationship between the observed annual and summer temperatures determined by the instrumental data was subsequently used to evaluate 7 climate models. The model with the best performance was used to infer the relationship for the last millennium. The results show that the relationship between the observed annual and summer temperatures becomes stronger as the timescale increases, except for the 4--16 years timescales at which it does not show any relationship. The summer temperature variability at short timescales (2--4 years) shows much higher variance than the annual variability, while the annual temperature variability at long timescales (〉32 years) has a much higher variance than the summer one. During the last millennium, the simulated summer temperature also shows higher variance at the short timescales (2-4 years) and lower variance at the long timescales (〉1024 years) than those of the annual temperature. The relationship between the two temperatures is generally close at the long timescales, and weak at the short timescales. Overall the summer temperature variability cannot well reflect the annual mean temperature variability for the study region during both the 20th century and the last millennium. Furthermore, all the climate models examined overestimate the annual mean temperature variance at the 2--4 years timescales, which indicates that the overestimate could be one of reasons why the volcanic eruption induced cooling is larger in climate models than in proxy data.展开更多
Located at the southern boundary of the tropical rainfall belt within the South Africa monsoon regime,Rodrigues Island,~2500 km east of East Africa,is ideally located to investigate climatic changes over the southwest...Located at the southern boundary of the tropical rainfall belt within the South Africa monsoon regime,Rodrigues Island,~2500 km east of East Africa,is ideally located to investigate climatic changes over the southwest Indian Ocean(SWIO).In this study,we investigate the climatic controls of its modern interannual rainfall variability in terms of teleconnection and local effects.We find that increased rainfall over the SWIO tends to occur in association with anomalously warm(cold)SSTs over the equatorial central Pacific(Maritime Continent),resembling the central Pacific El Niño,closely linked with the Victoria mode in the North Pacific.Our analyses show that the low-level convergence induced by warm SST over the equatorial central Pacific leads to anomalous low-level divergence over the Maritime Continent and convergence over a large area surrounding the Rodrigues Island,which leads to increased rainfall over the SWIO during the rainy season.Meanwhile,the excited Rossby wave along the tropical Indian Ocean transports more water vapor from the tropical convergence zone into the SWIO via intensified northwest wind.Furthermore,positive feedback induced by the Rossby wave response to the increased rainfall in the region contributes to the large interannual variations over the SWIO.展开更多
We integrated Enviro-HIRLAM(Environment-High Resolution Limited Area Model)meteorological output into FLEXPART(FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model).A FLEXPART simulation requires meteorological input from a numerical w...We integrated Enviro-HIRLAM(Environment-High Resolution Limited Area Model)meteorological output into FLEXPART(FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model).A FLEXPART simulation requires meteorological input from a numerical weather prediction(NWP)model.The publicly available version of FLEXPART can utilize either ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts)Integrated Forecast System(IFS)forecast or reanalysis NWP data,or NCEP(U.S.National Center for Environmental Prediction)Global Forecast System(GFS)forecast or reanalysis NWP data.The primary benefits of using Enviro-HIRLAM are that it runs at a higher resolution and accounts for aerosol effects in meteorological fields.We compared backward trajectories gener-ated with FLEXPART using Enviro-HIRLAM(both with and without aerosol effects)to trajectories generated using NCEP GFS and ECMWF IFS meteorological inputs,for a case study of a heavy haze event which occurred in Beijing,China in November 2018.We found that results from FLEXPART were considerably different when using different meteorological inputs.When aerosol effects were included in the NWP,there was a small but noticeable differ-ence in calculated trajectories.Moreover,when looking at potential emission sensitivity instead of simply expressing trajectories as lines,additional information,which may have been missed when looking only at trajectories as lines,can be inferred.展开更多
Almost all proxy-based temperature reconstructions for East Asia have hitherto been designed to resolve summer or annual temperature variability.Reconstruction for the winter temperature is still lacking.Here,we repor...Almost all proxy-based temperature reconstructions for East Asia have hitherto been designed to resolve summer or annual temperature variability.Reconstruction for the winter temperature is still lacking.Here,we report an annually resolved,winter-season(December-February,DJF)temperature field reconstruction for East Asia covering the period 1300-2000 CE,based on 260 temperature-sensitive tree-ring records.The most striking feature of our new reconstruction is a significant longterm warming trend since the 14th century,which is associated with winter solar insolation at mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the global anthropogenic impact.The amplitude of reconstructed winter temperature change over the study period was~4.7 times greater than that for summer temperature,and the rate of winter temperature increase was~6 times as much as that of summer temperature.The results from climate model simulations were consistent with the reconstruction,showing that the amplitude and rate of temperature change in winter were greater than those in summer.The reconstruction also suggests the possible influence of volcanic eruptions,anthropogenic activities and winter solar insolation on the winter temperature variations.Our result also suggests a long-term decrease in summer-to-winter temperature difference occurred in 1625(±24 years)CE.展开更多
The Indo-Gangetic Plain(IGP)is a major regional and global emitter of atmospheric pollutants,which adversely affect surrounding areas such as the Himalayas.We present a comprehensive dataset on carbonaceous aerosol(CA...The Indo-Gangetic Plain(IGP)is a major regional and global emitter of atmospheric pollutants,which adversely affect surrounding areas such as the Himalayas.We present a comprehensive dataset on carbonaceous aerosol(CA)composition,radiocarbon(D14C)-based source apportionment,and light absorption of total suspended particle(TSP)samples collected over a 3-year period from high-altitude Jomsom in the central Himalayas.The 3-year mean TSP,organic carbon(OC),and elemental carbon(EC)concentrations were 92.0±28.6,9.74±6.31,and 2.02±1.35 lg m^(3),respectively,with the highest concentrations observed during the pre-monsoon season,followed by the post-monsoon,winter,and monsoon seasons.The △^(14)C analysis revealed that the contribution of fossil fuel combustion(ffossil)to EC was 47.9%±11.5%,which is consistent with observations in urban and remote regions in South Asia and attests that EC likely arrives in Jomsom from upwind IGP sources via long-range transport.In addition,the lowest f_(fossil)(38.7%±13.3%)was observed in winter,indicating large contributions in this season from local biomass burning.The mass absorption cross-section of EC(MACEC:8.27±1.76 m^(2)/g)and watersoluble organic carbon(MACWSOC:0.98±0.45 m^(2)/g)were slightly higher and lower than those reported in urban regions,respectively,indicating that CA undergo an aging process.Organic aerosol coating during transport and variation of biomass burning probably led to the seasonal variation in MAC of two components.Overall,WSOC contributed considerably to the light absorption(11.1%±4.23%)of EC.The findings suggest that to protect glaciers of the Himalayas from pollution-related melting,it is essential to mitigate emissions from the IGP.展开更多
Seasonal differences of temperature are crucial components of the Earth's climate system.However,the relatively short observational record,especially for East Asia,has limited progress in understanding seasonal di...Seasonal differences of temperature are crucial components of the Earth's climate system.However,the relatively short observational record,especially for East Asia,has limited progress in understanding seasonal differences.In this study,we identify ten tree-ring chronologies separately correlated with local winter(December-February)temperatures and twelve different tree-ring chronologies separately correlated with summer(June-August)temperatures across East Asia.Using these discrete seasonal tree-ring chronologies,we develop two independent winter and summer temperature reconstructions covering the period 1376-1995 CE for East Asia,and compare them with model simulations.Our reconstructions show a more significant volcanic cooling and earlier onset of modern warming in summer than in winter.The reconstructed summer-minus-winter temperature decreased since as early as the late 19th century,which has driven the current state of seasonal temperature difference to out of the natural variability since the 1370s.Climate models could generally reproduce the variability and trends in seasonal reconstructions,but might largely underestimate seasonal differences due to the fact that seasonal expressions on external forcing and modes of internal variability are too small.Our study highlights the importance of using proxy-based seasonal reconstructions to evaluate the performance of climate models,and implies a substantial weakening of seasonal temperature differences in the future.展开更多
The Mongolian Plateau(MP) is located in the eastern part of arid Central Asia(ACA). Climatically, much of the MP is dominated by the westerly circulation and has an arid and semi-arid climate;however, the eastern part...The Mongolian Plateau(MP) is located in the eastern part of arid Central Asia(ACA). Climatically, much of the MP is dominated by the westerly circulation and has an arid and semi-arid climate;however, the eastern part of the MP is also influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) and has a humid and semi-humid climate. Several studies have shown that precipitation variability in the MP differs from that in western ACA but is consistent with that in the EASM region. Here we use monthly precipitation data for 1979–2016 to characterize and determine the origin of the summer precipitation variability of the MP and the EASM region. The results show that the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region exhibit a consistent pattern of precipitation variability on interannual and decadal timescales;specifically, the consistent regions are the MP and North and Northeast China. We further investigated the physical mechanisms responsible for the consistent interdecadal precipitation variability between the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region, and found that the mid-latitude wave train over Eurasia, with positive(negative) geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative(positive) geopotential height anomalies over Europe and the MP, is the key factor responsible for the consistency of precipitation variability in the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region. The positive anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative anomalies over Europe and the MP would enhance the transport of westerly and monsoon moisture to the MP and North and Northeast China. They could also strengthen the Northeast Asian low, enhance the EASM, and trigger the anomalous ascending motion over the MP which promotes precipitation in the MP and in the mid-latitude EASM region. Overall, our results help explain the spatial variations of paleo-precipitation/humidity reconstructions in East Asia and clarify the reasons for the consistency of the regional climate.展开更多
Due to specific environmental conditions, headwater catchments located on volcanic slopes and valleys are characterized by distinctive hydrology and sediment transport patterns. However, lack of sufficient monitoring ...Due to specific environmental conditions, headwater catchments located on volcanic slopes and valleys are characterized by distinctive hydrology and sediment transport patterns. However, lack of sufficient monitoring causes that the governing processes and patterns in these areas are rarely well understood. In this study, spatiotemporal water discharge and sediment transport from upstream sources was investigated in one of the numerous headwater catchments located in the lahar valleys of the Kamchatka Peninsula Sukhaya Elizovskaya River near Avachinskii and Koryakskii volcanoes. Three different subcatchments and corresponding channel types (wandering rivers within lahar valleys, mountain rivers within volcanic slopes and rivers within submountain terrains) were identified in the studied area. Our measure- ments from different periods of observations between years 2012-2014 showed that the studied catchment was characterized by extreme diurnal fluctuation of water discharges and sediment loads that were influenced by snowmelt patterns and high infiltration rates of the easily erodible lahar deposits. The highest recorded sediment loads were up to 9-104 mg/L which was related to an increase of two orders of magnitude within a one day of observations. Additionally, to get a quantitative estimate of the spatial distribution of the eroded material in the volcanic substrates we applied an empirical soil erosion and sediment yield model - modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE). The modeling results showed that even if the applications of the universal erosion model to different non-agricultural areas (e.g., volcanic catchments) can lead to irrelevant results, the MUSLE model delivered might be acceptable for non-lahar areas of the studied volcanic catchment. Overall the results of our studyincrease our understanding of the hydrology and asso- ciated sediment transport for prediction of risk manage- ment within headwater volcanic catchments.展开更多
Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this ex...Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89Blue Rings(lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings(cell deformation and collapse), and 93Light Rings(reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540–43, and548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages.展开更多
基金This research was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(no.2022YFF0801103)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(no.XDB40010200)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(no.41977381)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS(grant no.Y201959).The EC-Earth and LPJ-GUESS simulations were performed on the Swedish National Infrastructure for Computing at the National Super-computer Center,partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through grant agreement no.2018-05973.We thank Lili Liu for the laboratory work,Yingxiao Yu for the field sampling,and Yunkai Zhou for providing the meteorological data.
文摘The remote forcing from land surface changes in the Sahara is hypothesized to play a pivotal role in modulating the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)through ocean-atmospheric teleconnections.This modulation has far-reaching consequences,particularly in facilitating societal shifts documented in northern China.Here,we present a well-dated lake-level record from the Daihai Lake Basin in northern China,providing quantitative assessments of Holocene monsoonal precipitation and the consequent migrations of the northern boundary of the EASM.Our reconstruction,informed by a water-and-energy balance model,indicates that annual precipitation reached700 mm during 8–5 ka,followed by a rapid decline to tween 5 and 4 ka.This shift coherently aligns with a signi550 mm be-ficant300 km northwestward movement of the EASM northern boundary during the Middle Holocene(MH),in contrast to its current position.Our findings underscore that these changes cannot be entirely attributed to orbital forcing,as corroborated by simulation tests.Climate model simulations deployed in our study suggest that the presence of the Green Sahara during the MH significantly strengthened the EASM and led to a northward shift of the monsoon rainfall belt.Conversely,the Sahara’s reversion to a desert landscape in the late Holocene was accompanied by a corresponding southward retraction of monsoon influence.These dramatic hydroclimate changes during5–4 ka likely triggered or at least contributed to a shift in Neolithic cultures and societal transformation in northern China.With decreasing agricultural productivity,communities transitioned from millet farming to a mixed rainfed agriculture and animal husbandry system.Thus,our findings elucidate not only the variability of the EASM but also the profound implications of a remote forcing,such as surface transformations of the Sahara,on climatic changes and cultural evolution in northern China.
文摘Inappropriate management of municipal solid waste dumpsites is a major cause of groundwater contamination in developing countries,but the extent of the problem is not known.This study investigated groundwater quality in the vicinity of Olusosun dumpsite in Lagos,Nigeria,the most populous city in sub-Saharan Africa.During 2020,monthly groundwater samples were collected in 17 wells and boreholes used as drinking water sources,and analysed for 20 physico-chemical parameters.Differences between sites and seasons were statistically assessed,together with changes in water quality index(WQI).The results indicated that heavy metals(Pb^(2+),Ni^(+),Mn^(2+),Fe^(2+),Cr^(6+)),cations(Ca^(2+),Mg^(2+),K^(+)),total hardness and pH were the main parameters impairing water quality.Drinking water quality standards from both the World Health Organization and Nigeria government were exceeded more often in the wet season than in the dry season.Some groundwater properties were negatively correlated with distance to dumpsite(e.g.,Fe^(2+),Pb^(2+),NO_(3)^(−)).Significant differences between sites were identified,but with no clear spatial trend.WQI varied from excellent(6%-24%of the sites over the study period)to unsuitable for drinking water purposes(12%-18%),with good quality prevailing at most sites(35%-47%).Although groundwater quality declined at 24%of the sites over 2020,the results indicated improvements compared with previous decades.Remediation strategies must be implemented to safeguard public health and the sustainability of water resources.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42101149)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2022M711441)the Swedish Research Council(Vetenskapsr?det)(2017-04232,2022-03617)。
文摘The term“Holocene temperature conundrum”refers to the inconsistencies between proxy-based reconstructions and transient model simulations,and it challenges our understanding of global temperature evolution during the Holocene.Climate reconstructions indicate a cooling trend following the Holocene Thermal Maximum,while model simulations indicate a consistent warming trend due to icesheet retreat and rising greenhouse gas concentrations.Various factors,such as seasonal biases and overlooked feedback processes,have been proposed as potential causes for this discrepancy.In this study,we examined the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the temperature anomaly patterns in East Asia during the mid-Holocene(~6 ka).By utilizing the fully coupled Earth system model EC-Earth and performing simulations with and without coupled dynamic vegetation,our objective was to isolate the influence of vegetation changes on regional temperature patterns.Our findings reveal that vegetation-climate feedback contributed to warming across most of East Asia,resulting in spatially diverse temperature changes during the mid-Holocene and significantly improved model-data agreement.These results high-light the crucial role of vegetation-climate feedback in addressing the Holocene temperature conundrum and emphasize its importance for simulating accurate climate scenarios.
基金supported by the Centre for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial Information Systems(CAMGIS),UTS under grant numbers 321740.2232335,323930,and 321740.2232357
文摘In this study, a novel approach of the landslide numerical risk factor(LNRF) bivariate model was used in ensemble with linear multivariate regression(LMR) and boosted regression tree(BRT) models, coupled with radar remote sensing data and geographic information system(GIS), for landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) in the Gorganroud watershed, Iran. Fifteen topographic, hydrological, geological and environmental conditioning factors and a landslide inventory(70%, or 298 landslides) were used in mapping. Phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar data were used to extract topographic parameters. Coefficients of tolerance and variance inflation factor were used to determine the coherence among conditioning factors. Data for the landslide inventory map were obtained from various resources, such as Iranian Landslide Working Party(ILWP), Forestry, Rangeland and Watershed Organisation(FRWO), extensive field surveys, interpretation of aerial photos and satellite images, and radar data. Of the total data, 30% were used to validate LSMs, using area under the curve(AUC), frequency ratio(FR) and seed cell area index(SCAI).Normalised difference vegetation index, land use/land cover and slope degree in BRT model elevation, rainfall and distance from stream were found to be important factors and were given the highest weightage in modelling. Validation results using AUC showed that the ensemble LNRF-BRT and LNRFLMR models(AUC = 0.912(91.2%) and 0.907(90.7%), respectively) had high predictive accuracy than the LNRF model alone(AUC = 0.855(85.5%)). The FR and SCAI analyses showed that all models divided the parameter classes with high precision. Overall, our novel approach of combining multivariate and machine learning methods with bivariate models, radar remote sensing data and GIS proved to be a powerful tool for landslide susceptibility mapping.
基金funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology(FCT)through the PhD grant SFRH/BD/149710/2019.
文摘Urban green spaces(UGS)are essential for human well-being,contributing towards quality of life and promoting social interactions and inclusion.Accessibility to recreational UGS is key to human well-being in urban areas.However,there is a lack of works focused on recreational UGS accessibility in cities from different countries,using different types of transport.In this work,we studied the accessibility to recreational UGS in Vilnius(Lithuania)and Coimbra(Portugal)through four transport modes(foot,bike,bus and car)within 5-and 10-minute distance.The results showed important differences between cities.Vilnius had higher accessibility to recreational UGS than Coimbra in all transport modes.In both cities,the accessibility was highest by car and lowest by bus.Also,the percentage of population covered by 5-and 10-minute distance UGS accessibility in Vilnius is higher than in Coimbra,despite the lower population density in Vilnius.A large number of recreational UGS,their geographic distribution,the dispersed population pattern,and the location of several urbanizations near recreational UGS increased the inhabitant’s accessibility to recreational UGS in Vilnius.The differences in accessibility between cities were mainly attributed to the large number of recreational UGS and higher road network density,cycleways and footways density,and bus lines in Vilnius,compared to Coimbra.This work identified the areas where recreational UGS accessibility is difficult in using different transport modes and need to be improved in study areas.This is essential to support urban planners and increase cities’well-being.The findings of this work will be important for the management of the studied urban areas.
文摘Tree-ring based temperature reconstructions have successfully inferred the past inter-annual to millennium scales summer temperature variability. A clear relationship between annual and summer temperatures can provide insights into tile variability of past annual mean tem- perature from the reconstructed summer temperature. However, how similar are summer and annual temperatures is to a large extent still unknown. This study aims at investigating the relationship between annual and summer temperatures at different timescales in central Sweden during the last millennium. The temperature variability in central Sweden can represent large parts of Scandinavia which has been a key region for dendroclimatological research. The observed annual and summer temperatures during 1901-2005 were firstly decomposed into different frequency bands using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, and then the scale-dependent relationship was quantified using Pearson correlation coefficients. The relationship between the observed annual and summer temperatures determined by the instrumental data was subsequently used to evaluate 7 climate models. The model with the best performance was used to infer the relationship for the last millennium. The results show that the relationship between the observed annual and summer temperatures becomes stronger as the timescale increases, except for the 4--16 years timescales at which it does not show any relationship. The summer temperature variability at short timescales (2--4 years) shows much higher variance than the annual variability, while the annual temperature variability at long timescales (〉32 years) has a much higher variance than the summer one. During the last millennium, the simulated summer temperature also shows higher variance at the short timescales (2-4 years) and lower variance at the long timescales (〉1024 years) than those of the annual temperature. The relationship between the two temperatures is generally close at the long timescales, and weak at the short timescales. Overall the summer temperature variability cannot well reflect the annual mean temperature variability for the study region during both the 20th century and the last millennium. Furthermore, all the climate models examined overestimate the annual mean temperature variance at the 2--4 years timescales, which indicates that the overestimate could be one of reasons why the volcanic eruption induced cooling is larger in climate models than in proxy data.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41888101,41731174 and 41561144003 to Hai CHENG,and 41472140)the Chinese Academy of Sciences“PIFI Program”(Grant No.2020VCA0019)to Ashish SINHA.Qiong ZHANG acknowledges the support from Swedish Research Council(Vetenskapsrådet,Grant Nos.2013-06476 and 2017-04232).
文摘Located at the southern boundary of the tropical rainfall belt within the South Africa monsoon regime,Rodrigues Island,~2500 km east of East Africa,is ideally located to investigate climatic changes over the southwest Indian Ocean(SWIO).In this study,we investigate the climatic controls of its modern interannual rainfall variability in terms of teleconnection and local effects.We find that increased rainfall over the SWIO tends to occur in association with anomalously warm(cold)SSTs over the equatorial central Pacific(Maritime Continent),resembling the central Pacific El Niño,closely linked with the Victoria mode in the North Pacific.Our analyses show that the low-level convergence induced by warm SST over the equatorial central Pacific leads to anomalous low-level divergence over the Maritime Continent and convergence over a large area surrounding the Rodrigues Island,which leads to increased rainfall over the SWIO during the rainy season.Meanwhile,the excited Rossby wave along the tropical Indian Ocean transports more water vapor from the tropical convergence zone into the SWIO via intensified northwest wind.Furthermore,positive feedback induced by the Rossby wave response to the increased rainfall in the region contributes to the large interannual variations over the SWIO.
基金the Jenny and Antti Wihuri Foundation project,with the grant for“Air pollution cocktail in Gigacity”Funding was also received from the Research Council of Finland(formerly the Academy of Finland,AoF)project 311932 and applied towards this project+1 种基金Partially,funding included contribution from EU Horizon 2020 CRiceS project“Climate relevant interactions and feedbacks:the key role of sea ice and snow in the polar and global climate system”under grant agreement No 101003826and AoF project ACCC“The Atmosphere and Climate Competence Center”under grant agreement No 337549.
文摘We integrated Enviro-HIRLAM(Environment-High Resolution Limited Area Model)meteorological output into FLEXPART(FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model).A FLEXPART simulation requires meteorological input from a numerical weather prediction(NWP)model.The publicly available version of FLEXPART can utilize either ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts)Integrated Forecast System(IFS)forecast or reanalysis NWP data,or NCEP(U.S.National Center for Environmental Prediction)Global Forecast System(GFS)forecast or reanalysis NWP data.The primary benefits of using Enviro-HIRLAM are that it runs at a higher resolution and accounts for aerosol effects in meteorological fields.We compared backward trajectories gener-ated with FLEXPART using Enviro-HIRLAM(both with and without aerosol effects)to trajectories generated using NCEP GFS and ECMWF IFS meteorological inputs,for a case study of a heavy haze event which occurred in Beijing,China in November 2018.We found that results from FLEXPART were considerably different when using different meteorological inputs.When aerosol effects were included in the NWP,there was a small but noticeable differ-ence in calculated trajectories.Moreover,when looking at potential emission sensitivity instead of simply expressing trajectories as lines,additional information,which may have been missed when looking only at trajectories as lines,can be inferred.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant Nos.41888101,42001068)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2017YFA0603300)+1 种基金the Belmont Forum and JPI-Climate Collaborative Research Action“INTEGRATE”(Grant No.41661144008)supported by the Swedish Research Council(Vetenskapsradet,Grant No.2018-01272)。
文摘Almost all proxy-based temperature reconstructions for East Asia have hitherto been designed to resolve summer or annual temperature variability.Reconstruction for the winter temperature is still lacking.Here,we report an annually resolved,winter-season(December-February,DJF)temperature field reconstruction for East Asia covering the period 1300-2000 CE,based on 260 temperature-sensitive tree-ring records.The most striking feature of our new reconstruction is a significant longterm warming trend since the 14th century,which is associated with winter solar insolation at mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the global anthropogenic impact.The amplitude of reconstructed winter temperature change over the study period was~4.7 times greater than that for summer temperature,and the rate of winter temperature increase was~6 times as much as that of summer temperature.The results from climate model simulations were consistent with the reconstruction,showing that the amplitude and rate of temperature change in winter were greater than those in summer.The reconstruction also suggests the possible influence of volcanic eruptions,anthropogenic activities and winter solar insolation on the winter temperature variations.Our result also suggests a long-term decrease in summer-to-winter temperature difference occurred in 1625(±24 years)CE.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP)(2019QZKK0605)Pan-Third Pole Environment Study for a Green Silk Road(Pan-TPE)(XDA20040501)+3 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41705132,41630754)the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science(SKLCS-ZZ-2022)the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research(APN)(CRECS2020-07MY-Tripathee)as well as the Swedish Research Council VR Distinguished Professorship grant toÖ.Gustafsson(no.2017-01601).
文摘The Indo-Gangetic Plain(IGP)is a major regional and global emitter of atmospheric pollutants,which adversely affect surrounding areas such as the Himalayas.We present a comprehensive dataset on carbonaceous aerosol(CA)composition,radiocarbon(D14C)-based source apportionment,and light absorption of total suspended particle(TSP)samples collected over a 3-year period from high-altitude Jomsom in the central Himalayas.The 3-year mean TSP,organic carbon(OC),and elemental carbon(EC)concentrations were 92.0±28.6,9.74±6.31,and 2.02±1.35 lg m^(3),respectively,with the highest concentrations observed during the pre-monsoon season,followed by the post-monsoon,winter,and monsoon seasons.The △^(14)C analysis revealed that the contribution of fossil fuel combustion(ffossil)to EC was 47.9%±11.5%,which is consistent with observations in urban and remote regions in South Asia and attests that EC likely arrives in Jomsom from upwind IGP sources via long-range transport.In addition,the lowest f_(fossil)(38.7%±13.3%)was observed in winter,indicating large contributions in this season from local biomass burning.The mass absorption cross-section of EC(MACEC:8.27±1.76 m^(2)/g)and watersoluble organic carbon(MACWSOC:0.98±0.45 m^(2)/g)were slightly higher and lower than those reported in urban regions,respectively,indicating that CA undergo an aging process.Organic aerosol coating during transport and variation of biomass burning probably led to the seasonal variation in MAC of two components.Overall,WSOC contributed considerably to the light absorption(11.1%±4.23%)of EC.The findings suggest that to protect glaciers of the Himalayas from pollution-related melting,it is essential to mitigate emissions from the IGP.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41888101,41602192,and 41901095)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2017YFA0603302)+2 种基金the support by the Youth Innovation Promotion Association Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.2018471)supported by the Swedish Research Council(Vetenskapsr?det,Grant No.2018-01272)funded by the Swedish Collegium for A dvanced Study through Riksbankens Jubileusfond。
文摘Seasonal differences of temperature are crucial components of the Earth's climate system.However,the relatively short observational record,especially for East Asia,has limited progress in understanding seasonal differences.In this study,we identify ten tree-ring chronologies separately correlated with local winter(December-February)temperatures and twelve different tree-ring chronologies separately correlated with summer(June-August)temperatures across East Asia.Using these discrete seasonal tree-ring chronologies,we develop two independent winter and summer temperature reconstructions covering the period 1376-1995 CE for East Asia,and compare them with model simulations.Our reconstructions show a more significant volcanic cooling and earlier onset of modern warming in summer than in winter.The reconstructed summer-minus-winter temperature decreased since as early as the late 19th century,which has driven the current state of seasonal temperature difference to out of the natural variability since the 1370s.Climate models could generally reproduce the variability and trends in seasonal reconstructions,but might largely underestimate seasonal differences due to the fact that seasonal expressions on external forcing and modes of internal variability are too small.Our study highlights the importance of using proxy-based seasonal reconstructions to evaluate the performance of climate models,and implies a substantial weakening of seasonal temperature differences in the future.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41790421 & 41877446)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. lzujbky-2018-140)。
文摘The Mongolian Plateau(MP) is located in the eastern part of arid Central Asia(ACA). Climatically, much of the MP is dominated by the westerly circulation and has an arid and semi-arid climate;however, the eastern part of the MP is also influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) and has a humid and semi-humid climate. Several studies have shown that precipitation variability in the MP differs from that in western ACA but is consistent with that in the EASM region. Here we use monthly precipitation data for 1979–2016 to characterize and determine the origin of the summer precipitation variability of the MP and the EASM region. The results show that the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region exhibit a consistent pattern of precipitation variability on interannual and decadal timescales;specifically, the consistent regions are the MP and North and Northeast China. We further investigated the physical mechanisms responsible for the consistent interdecadal precipitation variability between the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region, and found that the mid-latitude wave train over Eurasia, with positive(negative) geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative(positive) geopotential height anomalies over Europe and the MP, is the key factor responsible for the consistency of precipitation variability in the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region. The positive anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative anomalies over Europe and the MP would enhance the transport of westerly and monsoon moisture to the MP and North and Northeast China. They could also strengthen the Northeast Asian low, enhance the EASM, and trigger the anomalous ascending motion over the MP which promotes precipitation in the MP and in the mid-latitude EASM region. Overall, our results help explain the spatial variations of paleo-precipitation/humidity reconstructions in East Asia and clarify the reasons for the consistency of the regional climate.
文摘Due to specific environmental conditions, headwater catchments located on volcanic slopes and valleys are characterized by distinctive hydrology and sediment transport patterns. However, lack of sufficient monitoring causes that the governing processes and patterns in these areas are rarely well understood. In this study, spatiotemporal water discharge and sediment transport from upstream sources was investigated in one of the numerous headwater catchments located in the lahar valleys of the Kamchatka Peninsula Sukhaya Elizovskaya River near Avachinskii and Koryakskii volcanoes. Three different subcatchments and corresponding channel types (wandering rivers within lahar valleys, mountain rivers within volcanic slopes and rivers within submountain terrains) were identified in the studied area. Our measure- ments from different periods of observations between years 2012-2014 showed that the studied catchment was characterized by extreme diurnal fluctuation of water discharges and sediment loads that were influenced by snowmelt patterns and high infiltration rates of the easily erodible lahar deposits. The highest recorded sediment loads were up to 9-104 mg/L which was related to an increase of two orders of magnitude within a one day of observations. Additionally, to get a quantitative estimate of the spatial distribution of the eroded material in the volcanic substrates we applied an empirical soil erosion and sediment yield model - modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE). The modeling results showed that even if the applications of the universal erosion model to different non-agricultural areas (e.g., volcanic catchments) can lead to irrelevant results, the MUSLE model delivered might be acceptable for non-lahar areas of the studied volcanic catchment. Overall the results of our studyincrease our understanding of the hydrology and asso- ciated sediment transport for prediction of risk manage- ment within headwater volcanic catchments.
基金funding from the ERC Advanced Project MONOSTAR (Ad G 882727)funding from Sust ES: adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_0 19/0000797)+11 种基金funding from the Fritz & Elisabeth Schweingruber Foundation. Duncan A. Christie and Carlos Le Quesne received funding from the ANID (FONDECYT 1201411, 1221307, FONDAP 15110009, BASAL FB210018)funding from the Russian Science Foundation grant (RSF 21-17-00006)funding from NSF Arctic Social Science 2112314NSF Arctic Natural Science 2124885the NSF P2C2 (Paleo Perspectives on Climatic Change) program (various grants)funding from the Russian Science Foundation grant (RSF 21-1400330)funding from the Russian Science Foundation grant (RSF 18-14-00072P)supported by the Swedish Research Council (201801272)funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation through the SNSF Sinergia CALDERA project (CRSII5 183571)funding from the National Science Foundation’s P2C2 Program (1902625 and 1203749)the Malcolm H.Wiener Foundationfunded through NSF P2C2 Program (2002454)
文摘Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89Blue Rings(lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings(cell deformation and collapse), and 93Light Rings(reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540–43, and548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages.