Failure Statistics Analysis Based on Bayesian Theory: A Study of FPSO Internal Turret Leakage

The load and corrosion caused by the harsh marine environment lead to the severe degradation of offshore equipment and to their compromised security and reliability. In the quantitative risk analysis, the failure models are difficult to establish through traditional statistical methods. Hence, the calculation of the occurrence probability of small sample events is often met with great uncertainty. In this study, the Bayesian statistical method is implemented to analyze the oil and gas leakages of FPSO internal turret, which is a typical small sample risk but could lead to severe losses.According to the corresponding failure mechanism, two Bayesian statistical models using the Weibull distribution and logarithmic normal distribution as the population distribution are established, and the posterior distribution of the corresponding parameters is calculated. The optimal Bayesian statistical model is determined according to the Bayesian information criterion and Akaike criterion. On the basis of the determined optimal model, the corresponding reliability index is solved to provide basic data for the subsequent risk assessments of FPSO systems.

Dynamic optimization analysis of hydraulic pipeline system based on a developed response surface method

When designing a complex pipeline with long distance and multi-supports for offshore platform,it is necessary to analyze the vibration characteristics of the complex pipeline system to ensure that there is no harmful resonance in the working conditions.Therefore,the optimal layout of support is an effective method to reduce the vibration response of hydraulic pipeline system.In this paper,a developed dynamic optimization method for the complex pipeline is proposed to investigate the vibration characteristics of complex pipeline with multi-elastic supports.In this method,the Kriging response surface model between the support position and pipeline is established.The position of the clamp in the model is parameterized and the optimal solution of performance index is obtained by genetic algorithm.The number of clamps and the interval between clamps are considered as the constraints of layout optimization,and the optimization objective is the natural frequencies of pipeline.Taking a typical offshore pipeline as example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method,the results show that the vibration performance of the hydraulic pipeline system is distinctly improved by the optimization procedure,which can provide reasonable guidance for the design of complex hydraulic pipeline system.

Microstructure Evolution of Heat‑Affected Zone in Submerged Arc Welding and Laser Hybrid Welding of 690 MPa High Strength Steel and its Relationship with Ductile–Brittle Transition Temperature

The comparative study of submerged arc welding(SAW)and laser hybrid welding(LHW)was carried out for a 690 MPa high strength steel with thickness of 20 mm.Microstructure and ductile–brittle transition temperature(DBTT)evolution in welded zone were elucidated from the aspect of crystallographic structure,particularly,digitization and visualization of 24 variants.The impact toughness of each micro zone in LHW joint is better than that of SAW,in which the DBTT of equivalent fusion line and heat-affected zone(HAZ)can reach−70 and−80℃,while that of SAW is only−50℃.LHW technology induces narrowing of the HAZ and refining of the microstructure obtained in weld metal and HAZ.Meanwhile,the austenite grain size and transformation driving force in the coarse grained heat-affected zone(CGHAZ)are reduced and increased,respectively.It makes variant selection mechanism occurring in CGHAZ of LHW dominate by close-packed plane grouping,which promotes lath bainite formation with high density of high angle grain boundary,especially block boundary dominated by V1/V2 pair.While for SAW,the lower transformation driving force inferred from the large amount of retained austenite in CGHAZ induces Bain grouping of variants,and thus triggers the brittle crack propagating straightly in granular bainite,resulting in lower impact toughness and higher DBTT.